Pats vs Steelers:Expert picks

[SuperPatsFan]

The all-important Madden sim on ESPN.com (83% accurate last week) has Pats losing a tough one, 20-17.

And the Madden sim had the Pats over the Browns 28-13.

Maybe the Madden sim predicting the Steelers is a good sign?

 

[jmt57]

I'd be pleasantly surprised (shocked) if the Pats upset the Steelers. Also, you guys bring up yards per carry, sure the Pat's UPC is higher, but how many of those carries were by Woodhead on passing downs ? If it's third and 10, and Woodhead gets 6 on a carry, yeah that pads the average. I hope the Pats win, but I just can't see it happening.

So what are you trying to say, that when the Pats gain yards running the ball it is meaningless but whenever Pittsburgh runs the ball that yardage is clutch? You don't seriously believe that, do you?

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2010 OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Football Outsiders disagrees with your theory. They have the Pats ranked 3rd in rushing offense with a DVOA of 20.6; Pittsburgh is 17th at -2.2%.

 

[TBradyOwnsYou]

I think it comes down to the 4th quarter and I definitely feel in a non-homeristic way that we are the better 4th quarter team. That said, I homerly predicted we blow them out...

 

[goheels22002]

So far this season it is 3-6.
The Cowboys on the road twice skews it a little bit.

DAL 7 @ WAS 13
NYG 14 @ IND 38
NYJ 31 @ MIA 23
CHI 3 @ NYG 17
PHI 27 @ SF 24
IND 27 @ WAS 24
MIN 24 @ GB 28
PIT 10 @ NO 20
DAL 7 @ GB 45
Patriots at Steelers
Giants at Eagles
Chargers at Colts
Steelers at Ravens
Eagles at Cowboys
Packers at Pats
Chargers at Bengals
TBD

The previous scores are so completely irrelevant. If Wade "Pantload" Philips were coaching either the Pats or the Steelers, we'd pick the other team. What are we supposed to make of the Colts? They lost at home and won on the road.

The Pats are pissed after being humiliated last week. This game comes down to the Pats re-juvenated Offensive Line and the injured wretched Steelers offensive line. The Pats feature Mankins and Fred Taylor in this game for the first time and have Patrick Chung back to create chaos against a backup line for the Steelers. Big Ben is a dope and with shaky protection will make mistakes. Pats in a close one made possible by a Roethlisberger turnover in the 4th quarter.

 

[Dutchmaster617]

Very well said......after the pats crapped their pants last game...do u expect the critics to throw rose petals? Let me see Pitt arguably best team in nfl....pats in rebuild mode and inconsistent...doesn't take a brain surgeon to pick the squeals at home here....

6-2 isn't inconsistent, we are not 4-4.

 

[BlueThunder]

6-2 is Brady and coaching


4-4 is regular NFL coaching and players that Pats have on roster...


22 or so first and second year guys will have their ups and downs......

 

[condon84]

Who cares. We go in there and win any way we can. If breaks happen to go our way, we need to be in position to take advantage of them. I don't care what experts or other fans think.

 

[SVN]

Patriots-Steelers is NFL Game of the Week - Kerry J. Byrne - SI.com

CHFF picks steelers

 

[jmt57]

Boston Globe week 10 staff picks Using a point spread of Steelers minus 4 ½ Shalise Manza Young takes Pittsburgh, Christopher Gasper and Jim McBride go with the Pats, and Monique Walker not only picks New England, she makes that her best bet of the week. Hopefully past performance is a good indicator of future results; Walker and Gasper are first among those four with a season record of 74-50-6 while SMY is trailing at 53-71-6.

Globe 10.0 - Sports video Gasper, Lee on Pats at Steelers
Christopher Gasper goes with the Pats, Greg Lee likes Pittsburgh.



Bruschi's Breakdown: Tedy Bruschi and Mike Reiss break down Sunday's game between the Patriots and Steelers - ESPN Boston

Mike Reiss: As for a prediction, I see this as a low-scoring game. Given the struggles of the Patriots' offense and the strength of the Steelers' defense, coupled with the home field, I slightly favor Pittsburgh. I think the Patriots will play a better game than last week, but still come up short. Steelers 20, Patriots 17.

Tedy Bruschi: In thinking about who I should pick for this game I'm reminded of something Coach Belichick taught me. It was the week before a big game. I can't remember which one -- they were all big -- and we had played poorly the week before and there were some comments said in the media by some of our players about looking forward to having success the next week. Coach Belichick said, "You guys think you're gonna go out there and play well?! BASED ON WHAT?!" He then proceeded to list our struggles as a team and told us that until we started to fix our problems they were going to show up over and over again. Based on what? Exactly. Based on what I saw last week the Patriots have a lot of fixing to do. Steelers 28, Patriots 20.

Bill Simmons: Week 10 picks - ESPN

Patriots (+4.5) over STEELERS Good signs for the Patriots: a history of success in Heinz Field; a history of success in the Belichick era after a bad loss; a bad break for Pittsburgh with LT Max Starks being lost for the season; and I didn't put them No. 1 in a Power Poll this week while screaming, "The New England Patriots are back in business!" Bad signs for the Pats: Who knows whether they're good after last weekend's debacle? When in doubt, take the points.

2010 NFL Week 10 Picks and Predictions from Whatifsports.com

Validating that "momentum" is fictitious in the NFL, the Steelers were soundly put to sleep by the Saints 20-10 in Week 8. New Orleans was 4-3 at the time, coming off a discouraging loss to lowly Cleveland. Roethlisberger and the rest of the offense looked discombobulated and out of sync, while the defense could not contain the high-octane aerial attack of Drew Brees.

Yet despite these recent slip-ups, both of these respective squads (along with the Jets and Ravens) find themselves atop the AFC. The Patriots are mirroring their formula for success in the early 2000s; mainly, spreading the ball around on offense, playing "bend-but-don't-break" defense, and grinding out ugly victories. While Brady hasn't put up the dazzling statistics of years' past, the New England quarterback is posting a 95.7 QB rating and has thrown just four picks on the year. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's foundation lies in its D, which is surrendering a league-low 15.4 points per contest. In the absence of Roethlisberger, running back Rashard Mendenhall has emerged as a star, compiling 702 yards and seven touchdowns in 2010.

So who wins the battle of conference contenders? According to the WhatIfSports NFL simulation engine, Pittsburgh comes out on top 87.1-percent of the time, by an average score of 28-14.

2010 NFL Week 10 - New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers From WhatIfSports.com



Week 10 NFL tip sheet | National Football Post
Matt Bowen picks the Steelers in this game.

Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers: I have been impressed with the Steelers’ RB every time I watch him play—especially with his top end speed once he reaches the second level of the defense. Good matchup for Pittsburgh vs. the Patriots’ front seven.

New England: Any time you play the Steelers, your offensive production will come down to how you handle pressure. For Tom Brady and the Pats, that means getting the ball out quickly. Look for New England to use a wide variety of personnel groupings and alignments. Run the short, combination routes out of bunch and stack looks, which will allow Brady to complete quick, simple reads. In the run game, use the sprint draw out of the gun. Have to try and slow down this Pittsburgh defense.

 

[WinstonSmith]

Week 10 N.F.L. Game Probabilities - NYTimes.com

Brian Burke of Advanced NFL stats and the NYT’s The Fifth Down gives the Pats only a 15% chance of winning. According to Burke's calculations I have a better chance of getting laid tonight than the Pats have of winning – the wife seems to be pissed at me for forgetting our anniversary.

 

[jmt57]

Gerry Dulac's NFL Forecast: Week 10 | Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

The Steelers won two Super Bowls last decade, but it was the Patriots who kept them from making two more appearances with victories in the 2001 and 2004 AFC title games at Heinz Field. This shouldn't be as humbling.

Prediction: Steelers, 30-24

 

[stcjones]

Fans know their own team much better than other teams they don't follow as closely. Result is we tend to be far more critical of our own teams. Meanwhile we look at those other teams from memories - and those memories tend to come from victorious seasons which get repeated over and over.

Pats fans are concerned about the defense, and rightfully so. But guess what - Steeler fans are very concerned about their offensive line, and rightfully so as well. We tend to overlook that; for example, you didn't mention the Pats OL as being better than the Steelers OL. And the OL is not something that can be looked at just in a vacuum; problems there affect the running game, and pass blocking affects the performance of the quarterback - and the wide receivers.

As for the "running game that blows ours out of the water", did you realize the Pats are actually averaging more yards per carry than the Steelers are? Yes, the Pats do have issues running the ball but it looks to me like your assessment of the Steelers running game is based strictly on past reputation. And as bad as the Pats' pass defense has been, the Steelers' pass defense has not been much better this year; nobody fears their corners either.

If I take my homer glasses off and have to predict who will win right now, I would probably say Pittsburgh. I just don't think it is as one-sided as some are making it out to be. This team has its issues, just like the Pats do.

This team has its issues, just like the Pats do.[/

What other issues besides OL do you feel that Pitt has? I can't think of much other than that.......thx

 

[jmt57]

This team has its issues, just like the Pats do.[/

What other issues besides OL do you feel that Pitt has? I can't think of much other than that.......thx

Obviously their OL is their biggest concern, in my opinion.

I would say their coverage overall is average, maybe even below average. I don't think their corners are all that special and I'd say they are susceptible to short, underneath routes. I know putting any linebacker in coverage is a tough proposition, but the Steelers seem to be below average in this category.

However they do make up for that by being well coached and good at tackling. It seems like teams can complete passes against them, but Pittsburgh doesn't allow opposing receivers to break tackles. Plus it doesn't look like they get beat deep, which means the Pats are going to have to be patient and put together long drives in order to score.

The thing is if the Pats can exploit the problems Pittsburgh has on their offensive line, then hopefully that will limit both the Steelers running game as well as their passing game. As I mentioned before, I don't think their running game is nearly as potent as it has been in years past - and a strong running game is a big part of their formula for success.

If the Pats' defense is winning the battles on the line that could lead to some three-and-outs and maybe some turnovers. I don't know if it will happen or not, but I think that is not an unreasonable expectation.

 

[stcjones]

Thanks for great analysis and breakdown....let's hope u r right!! Go pats!

Obviously their OL is their biggest concern, in my opinion.

I would say their coverage overall is average, maybe even below average. I don't think their corners are all that special and I'd say they are susceptible to short, underneath routes. I know putting any linebacker in coverage is a tough proposition, but the Steelers seem to be below average in this category.

However they do make up for that by being well coached and good at tackling. It seems like teams can complete passes against them, but Pittsburgh doesn't allow opposing receivers to break tackles. Plus it doesn't look like they get beat deep, which means the Pats are going to have to be patient and put together long drives in order to score.

The thing is if the Pats can exploit the problems Pittsburgh has on their offensive line, then hopefully that will limit both the Steelers running game as well as their passing game. As I mentioned before, I don't think their running game is nearly as potent as it has been in years past - and a strong running game is a big part of their formula for success.

If the Pats' defense is winning the battles on the line that could lead to some three-and-outs and maybe some turnovers. I don't know if it will happen or not, but I think that is not an unreasonable expectation.

 

[VJCPatriot]

i always felt ben roethlisberger makes that oline look bad since he cant make fast decisions and relies on his escapism and big build to make plays.

Unfortunately it works for him. I think the key to this game is for the Pats to force Big Ben into turnovers. That's his one weakness and strength. He can extend the play and escape the sack, but he also might throw up a stupid pick or two on one of his improvised plays.

I'm not nearly as pessimistic as the other posters on this board. The Cleveland game was undoubtedly a stinker, but we have suffered no significant new injuries and the defense is still studded with fast talented players with upside. I look for the Pats to bounce back with a narrow win.

This game is in Pittsburgh which makes it tough but y'all did realize that the Steelers just lost another of their starting OTs for the year? That's going to make it tougher for the Steelers to run and pass as per usual. And their offense wasn't exactly a juggernaut before that either (21.8 ppg, decidedly mediocre). I expect the Pats to do what they usually do, spread out that Steelers D and slice it apart with passes. Woodhead will be a key in this game, as he can scamper for yardage against a D predicated to stop our passing attack.

 

[102 Pat]

Maybe some would call it a disadvantage, or not, but since the Steelers played monday night, they've had one less day to get treatment, practice, etc, etc.

 

[SVN]

Troy brown and christian fauria on weei both pick the steelers.
On NFLN irvin,sapp and mooch all picked the steelers only marshall picked the pats(reverse jinx?)

 

[jmt57]

Troy brown and christian fauria on weei both pick the steelers.
On NFLN irvin,sapp and mooch all picked the steelers only marshall picked the pats(reverse jinx?)

It seems as if Marshall Faulk has had an epiphany and finally moved on from his past history of always going against the Patriots with his comments and opinions this year. Perhaps he realized carrying all that anger and disappointment from 2001 was neither healthy nor useful, who knows. Or maybe he saw how ridiculous Michael Irvin looked with some of his previous commentary about the Pats and Randy Moss, and wanted to distance himself from him.

Whatever it is Faulk seems to be a lot more listenable now than ever before, even when he does pick against the Pats or point out a flaw in their game.

 

[SVN]

It seems as if Marshall Faulk has had an epiphany and finally moved on from his past history of always going against the Patriots with his comments and opinions this year. Perhaps he realized carrying all that anger and disappointment from 2001 was neither healthy nor useful, who knows. Or maybe he saw how ridiculous Michael Irvin looked with some of his previous commentary about the Pats and Randy Moss, and wanted to distance himself from him.

Whatever it is Faulk seems to be a lot more listenable now than ever before, even when he does pick against the Pats or point out a flaw in their game.

rich eisen was on wEEI 2 weeks ago and the guys asked him about faulk. Eisen says that marshall has never said this himself but according eisen marshall feels there was some taping going on sb 36 which still bothers him. this is eisen's guess. But other they have a lot of respect for bb blah blah...so take it for FWIW

 

[jmt57]

rich eisen was on wEEI 2 weeks ago and the guys asked him about faulk. Eisen says that marshall has never said this himself but according eisen marshall feels there was some taping going on sb 36 which still bothers him. this is eisen's guess. But other they have a lot of respect for bb blah blah...so take it for FWIW

Interesting - but not at all surprising. I assumed Faulk felt that way based on his one-sided comments and thoughts over the years. Better to let it go and move on rather than allowing it to eat away and consume you even if that is what you believe. I'll have to go back to their audio on demand and listen to that.