Patriots Worst Draft in NFL?

[Synovia]

I love it when people say stuff like this. No one knows when another team would have taken a player. Buffalo could have been prepared to take Dowling. Detroit may have been ready to take Vereen. Miami was ready to take Mallett. Nobody knows. Nobody ever will know.

When Christian Ponder hypothetically becomes a star, people will rave about Minnesota's genius. When Von Miller hypothetically busts, Denver fans will call for John Fox's head. You don't know. I don't know.

Not only that, but we don't even know where the teams have these players ranked. 2/3 of the teams in the NFL could be laughing at say, the Broncos becuase they had Miller as the 3rd or 4th best OLB, and think that the Seahawks are geniuses because they had Carpenter as the best OL in the draft.


We just do not know. We see the opinions of a whole bunch of talking heads who all get their opinions from one scouting bereau. And the majority of teams don't use that bereau. Sure, the bereau is probably right on a lot of their evaluation, but they're probably way off from the team scouts on a lot of picks.


I feel like a lot of the "who the heck is that guy" picks that are unexpected, especially from the Pats, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Packers, tend to be guys who we're later saying were great picks, and the guys who are "concencus picks"... well.. just aren't.

 

[jmt57]

I think I've seen this movie before.


Draft Time
Jets Fan: Belichick is awful at drafting, it's all Tom Brady.
Pats Fan: So the selection of Brady was a good research and analysis?
JF: No, it was all luck.

Some Writer Says Something Positive About Brady
JF: Brady is a system quarterback. It's all Belichick, the defense, and that great offensive line.
PF: So Belichick is good at drafting?
JF: No, it was all luck.

Some Writer Says Something Positive About Belichick
JF: Belichick is so overrated. He's nothing without Brady. Look what happened in Cleveland.
PF: So Brady is even better than what the writers say about him?
JF: No, it's all the defense and offensive line.
JF: Scratch that, it's all luck.

Some Writer Says Something Positive About The Pats Defense
JF: What a bunch of crap; look at how many yards a game that defense gives up.
PF: So why do the Pats keep winning?
JF: It's Belichick
JF: It's Brady
JF: It's the offensive line
JF: It's all luck



And the goal posts just keep on moving forever and ever, depending on who it is that is being discussed on the Patriots ...

 

[Doggin94it]

Unless you believe, as Bill Bellichick has stated he does, that there is no "window". That the goal is to build a team that is good enough to win every single year, and then let things fall as the do. Teams have windows because they do exactly what you're suggesting: they trade the future for now.

If you believe there's no window . . . meh.

The window closes when Brady steps off the "Elite" cliff and becomes merely very good.

Whats normally true though, is that a 2nd rounder this year, and a first rounder next year is going to get you a whole lot more than the 28th pick this year.

It depends on the players picked.

 

[Doggin94it]

I definitely don't agree with this. First point, in terms of one year of development, you are making the assumption that it is more important to have an impact player now than it is in later years. You could also argue that Mark Ingram's rookie contract will run out in 2015, while the player the Patriots pick next year will run out in 2016. It really doesn't matter; you are getting rights to a player, whether it's this year, next year, or wherever. The fact that you brought up Larry Bird is interesting; the Celtics drafted him a year before he turned pro. Patience paid off there. Did it matter ultimately that they got him a year later than they wanted?

Second point: Mark Ingram, by almost all accounts, was a fringe player between first and second round talent. If that isn't the case, I highly doubt he would have been available at 28. The last time we heard about a an NBA-type of franchise player who would without a doubt change the franchise single-handedly, it was another running back drafted by the Saints. Yes, they won a SB, but do a re-draft, and the Saints do not even draft Bush in the first round if they knew what they know now.

Actually, Ingram, by all accounts, was a top 15 type talent playing at a position that has become dramatically devalued in recent years. (If you're looking for a moneyball pick in the NFL draft these days, it's at RB)

 

[The Scrizz]

I think I've seen this movie before.


Draft Time
Jets Fan: Belichick is awful at drafting, it's all Tom Brady.
Pats Fan: So the selection of Brady was a good research and analysis?
JF: No, it was all luck.

Some Writer Says Something Positive About Brady
JF: Brady is a system quarterback. It's all Belichick, the defense, and that great offensive line.
PF: So Belichick is good at drafting?
JF: No, it was all luck.

Some Writer Says Something Positive About Belichick
JF: Belichick is so overrated. He's nothing without Brady. Look what happened in Cleveland.
PF: So Brady is even better than what the writers say about him?
JF: No, it's all the defense and offensive line.
JF: Scratch that, it's all luck.

Some Writer Says Something Positive About The Pats Defense
JF: What a bunch of crap; look at how many yards a game that defense gives up.
PF: So why do the Pats keep winning?
JF: It's Belichick
JF: It's Brady
JF: It's the offensive line
JF: It's all luck



And the goal posts just keep on moving forever and ever, depending on who it is that is being discussed on the Patriots ...

Man, that's all in the past.

JF: The Pats only won because they're cheaters.

 

[Doggin94it]

I think I've seen this movie before.


Draft Time
Jets Fan: Belichick is awful at drafting, it's all Tom Brady.
Pats Fan: So the selection of Brady was a good research and analysis?
JF: No, it was all luck.

Actually, it was both. Good research to identify him as a player who was worth taking in round 6. But also pure luck that he turned into the player he is.

Don't even try arguing differently. If they had any clue Brady would be Brady, do you think they wait until the 6th round to draft him?

Some Writer Says Something Positive About Brady
JF: Brady is a system quarterback. It's all Belichick, the defense, and that great offensive line.
PF: So Belichick is good at drafting?
JF: No, it was all luck.

Brady's anything but a system QB. You guys have a top 3 all-time head coach to go with a top 10 all-time QB (really not sure where I slot Brady into the Montana, Elway, Marino, Manning, Unitas, Graham, Baugh list - in no particular order - some days I want to say he's top 3, others at the bottom of that grouping . . . either way, he's a hell of a QB). Enjoy it, because it won't last forever.

 

[jmt57]

Actually, it was both. Good research to identify him as a player who was worth taking in round 6. But also pure luck that he turned into the player he is.

Don't even try arguing differently. If they had any clue Brady would be Brady, do you think they wait until the 6th round to draft him?

Obviously they didn't know Brady was as good as he would turn out to be; Belichick and Pioli are both quick to admit that. But on the other hand it's not as if they were picking up some draft guide from the magazine section of the local supermarket and saying 'hey, let's take this guy' the way some fan in a $10 fantasy football league would draft a player either. How long they thought they could wait and still get him had a lot to do with it as well. Luck? Yes, absolutely - but not "pure luck".

Brady's anything but a system QB. You guys have a top 3 all-time head coach to go with a top 10 all-time QB (really not sure where I slot Brady into the Montana, Elway, Marino, Manning, Unitas, Graham, Baugh list - in no particular order - some days I want to say he's top 3, others at the bottom of that grouping . . . either way, he's a hell of a QB). Enjoy it, because it won't last forever.

This will be the tenth consecutive season I've heard similar (won't last forever) phrases. In 2002 and 2003 the Pats were one-hit wonders that would surely go back to 5-11. Then the Patriots hated their coach and were doomed, would surely not win a single game that year.

• No Bryan Cox - window is closed
• No Ted Washington - window is closed
• No Lawyer Milloy - window is closed
• No Ty Law - window is closed
• No Willie McGinest - window is closed
• No Adam Vinatieri - window is closed
• No Corey Dillon - window is closed
• No Rodney Harrison - window is closed
• No Tedy Bruschi - window is closed
• No Charlie Weis - window is closed
• No Romeo Crenel - window is closed
• No Scott Pioli - window is closed
• No Mike Vrabel - window is closed
• No Asante Samuel - window is closed
• No Richard Seymour - window is closed

Will it be a challenge without Brady when the day comes that he retires? Of course, absolutely. But excuse me if I don't take this "window is closed" and "Patriots are done" talk very seriously; it's difficult to pay all that much attention to those phrases at this point.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Actually, Ingram, by all accounts, was a top 15 type talent playing at a position that has become dramatically devalued in recent years. (If you're looking for a moneyball pick in the NFL draft these days, it's at RB)

2010- CJ Spiller (9th), Ryan Mathews (12th)
2009- Knowshon Moreno (12th), Donald Brown (27th), Beanie Wells (31st)
2008- Darren McFadden (4th), Jonathan Stewart 13th), Felix Jones (22nd), Rashard Mendenhall (23rd), Chris Johnson (24th)
2007- Adrian Peterson (7th), Marshawn Lynch (12th)
2006- Reggie Bush (2nd), Laurence Maroney (21st), DeAngelo Williams (27th), Joseph Addai (30th)

Over the last five drafts, 16 running backs have been taken in the first round, including 8 in the top 15.

I happen to think that Ingram will actually be a good running back, but that's not the point. Next year, when the Patriots are sitting pretty in the top 20, they'll already have Vereen (who they basically got for free by making this deal), along with their choice of a real top-20 running back, or the best player available. You could make the same argument for every trade they've made where they've received better value, including Armati Edwards (or whatever his name was last year) that Carolina picked. Bottom line is, the Patriots almost always come out on top.

 

[supafly]

Obviously they didn't know Brady was as good as he would turn out to be; Belichick and Pioli are both quick to admit that. But on the other hand it's not as if they were picking up some draft guide from the magazine section of the local supermarket and saying 'hey, let's take this guy' the way some fan in a $10 fantasy football league would draft a player either. How long they thought they could wait and still get him had a lot to do with it as well. Luck? Yes, absolutely - but not "pure luck".


Brady's anything but a system QB. You guys have a top 3 all-time head coach to go with a top 10 all-time QB (really not sure where I slot Brady into the Montana, Elway, Marino, Manning, Unitas, Graham, Baugh list - in no particular order - some days I want to say he's top 3, others at the bottom of that grouping . . . either way, he's a hell of a QB). Enjoy it, because it won't last forever.

This will be the tenth consecutive season I've heard similar (won't last forever) phrases. In 2002 and 2003 the Pats were one-hit wonders that would surely go back to 5-11. Then the Patriots hated their coach and were doomed, would surely not win a single game that year.

• No Bryan Cox - window is closed
• No Ted Washington - window is closed
• No Lawyer Milloy - window is closed
• No Ty Law - window is closed
• No Willie McGinest - window is closed
• No Adam Vinatieri - window is closed
• No Corey Dillon - window is closed
• No Rodney Harrison - window is closed
• No Tedy Bruschi - window is closed
• No Charlie Weis - window is closed
• No Romeo Crenel - window is closed
• No Scott Pioli - window is closed
• No Mike Vrabel - window is closed
• No Asante Samuel - window is closed
• No Richard Seymour - window is closed

[/QUOTE]

You forgot the most current one, that had all of the talking heads babbling after the early season Dolphin game :

No Randy Moss - window is closed

 

[jsull87]

Will stand my original gutt on the results of this one that it absolutely sucked. When the picks were coming out, it seemed like a crazy old batt(Al Davisesque) making the picks. Those that think it was good are doing so(Sporting News)just because it's the Pats. I mean, just simple reason would suggest a lot of them did not make sense - horrible on the need side, lot's of picks that could have been had with much later picks. It's interesting to hear Tucker say as much, given he seems like a rational thinker. Will eat crow if this one turns out otherwise. The draft is a crapshoot, but I don't feel like the odds were set well with this one. And if you take a taste on the last 5 years, the Pats are not a great drafting team.

I am sick of people like you saying we could have got player X later in the draft... you have absolutly no idea. You can have your opinions about the player himself but to say you knew how the draft would fall and when you could and couldn't get players is becoming so annoying.

 

[randomk1]

Brady's anything but a system QB.

I ******* hate when that argument is used....absolutely ******* hate it. Out of all the top QB's in the NFL Brady is the only QB that has proven that he can play any type of passing attack and with any talent of receivers.

2006= Championship run with nobody's.

Randy Moss came in=vertical attack,NFL records.

Championship years and 2010= small ball,control the clock,NFL records.

Multiple changes at OC.

Peyton Manning is a far bigger system QB.How many OC's had he had in his career...two ? And with Polian providing a constant influx of talent at offensive positions. Last year the talent was gone with injuries= Manning struggling.

 

[tuckeverlasting]

No, that's the time value of money. $100 today is actually worth more than $100 tomorrow. In the same vein, a first round pick next year is actually worth less than a first round pick this year.

this is the same draft value chart the sanchise uses. a 15 year old this year is worth less next year.

 

[randomk1]

this is the same draft value chart the sanchise uses. a 15 year old this year is worth less next year.

lmao...nice one.

 

[Synovia]

Actually, Ingram, by all accounts, was a top 15 type talent playing at a position that has become dramatically devalued in recent years. (If you're looking for a moneyball pick in the NFL draft these days, it's at RB)

Post a scouting report.


He's a running back who has a speed score below 100. Guys liek that don't have particularlly good histories. Most are busts.

 

[Synovia]

The window closes when Brady steps off the "Elite" cliff and becomes merely very good.
.

So, they can win 11 games with a kid who hadn't started a football game since highschool at QB, but when Brady goes to "merely good" they're done? That makes a lot of sense.

 

[patsfaninpittsburgh]

If you believe there's no window . . . meh.

The window closes when Brady steps off the "Elite" cliff and becomes merely very good.



It depends on the players picked.

What team actually suffers with you as a fan?

Window, yeah, keep dreaming window

The reality is the Patriots are far better positioned for the post Brady era than any other team is for their "post-...." era.

My guess is your team never had a window, only a cutout.