Patriots the #1 seed if they win either game?

[bostonia3333]

The ideal scenario is:
1. NE
2. CIN
3. DEN
4. HOU
5.KC
6. NYJ

Brady, Mccaron, Osweiler, Yates?, Smith, Fitzpatrick...How unreal would that be for playoff AFC qbs?

Keeping Big Ben out of this is the key... Yeah it would be fun to watch PIT-NE, but I think we can do away with a another 38-35 heart attack type of game at home

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

The way I understand it, the only way the Patriots don't get the #1 seed is if

1) The Patriots lose the last two games, AND
2) The winner of next week's DEN-CIN game also wins in week 17.

In that case, can we afford to drop one of those two games and still take the #1 seed?

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Another way to boil it down...

NE does not get the #1 seed if any of following happens:

• NE finishes with same record as DEN (and only DEN)
• CIN finishes with better record than NE
• DEN beats CIN and then there's a NE-CIN-DEN 3-way tie

Good stuff QM. It answers the question completely. The Patriots winning one more game makes it impossible for any of those three items apply -- meaning the Patriots have achieved HFA.

Get this done at the Jets! Let's give those that need it an extra week of rest and those that could use it a half of a game rest. It also gives guys like Iosefa and other newbys some much greater, and useful, playing time against first line competition (something that could pay off later in the POs)

 

[Ivan]

Assuming the #1 and #2 seeds win the divisional round, home field in the conference championship round is a huge advantage, a probability swing 20 percentage points and likely 7 points. I agree that health is important, but let's acknowledge that having home field is a big deal.

The Pats had home field advantage in 2003, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2014. 4 out of 6 times they've made the SB.

In the Conference Championship, they are are 4-1 at home, and 2-2 on the road, having lost their last two by thin margins that likely would have swung with HFA.

I'm going on this year's team and their competition and I believe winning the Super Bowl without guys like Amendola, Edelman, Hightower, Gronk etc etc would be much tougher than beating either Denver our Cincy in their parks.

 

[gitgronked82]

The ideal scenario is:
1. NE
2. CIN
3. DEN
4. HOU
5.KC
6. NYJ

Brady, Mccaron, Osweiler, Yates?, Smith, Fitzpatrick...How unreal would that be for playoff AFC qbs?

Keeping Big Ben out of this is the key... Yeah it would be fun to watch PIT-NE, but I think we can do away with a another 38-35 heart attack type of game at home

i doubt that happens, seeing as the jets have a week 16 loss. and don't the steelers have the tie breaker over them?

 

[supafly]

i doubt that happens, seeing as the jets have a week 16 loss. and don't the steelers have the tie breaker over them?

Yes, for the Steelers to stay home it would mean that:

1) The NYJ would have to win both of their remaining games

AND

2) The Steelers would have to drop one to BAL or CLE

I don't think either of those are likely, never mind both.

 

[supafly]

If it comes to that, I'm not all that concerned about the prospect of facing the AJ McCarron led Bengals in Cincinnati in the AFCCG.

Wait, you think that Andy Dalton would still not be able to play 5 weeks from now?

I'd say that 6+ full weeks of recovery should do for a broken thumb!

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Yes, for the Steelers to stay home it would mean that:

1) The NYJ would have to win both of their remaining games

AND

2) The Steelers would have to drop one to BAL or CLE

I don't think either of those are likely, never mind both.

Even though few things would be more satisfying than watching the Patriots walk into New Jersey and essentially, if not mathematically, eliminate the Jets from the playoffs, I remind myself of the silver lining of a loss, which is that few things would be more satisfying than watching the Jets and their fans squirm and bang their fists when they miss the playoffs at 11-5/ OR watching Rex Ryan rip their hearts out in week 17. Bottom line is there are a lot of scenarios where we'll get to watch the Jets crash and burn in a fantastic way, which is their only outcome if they don't completely suck.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

Wait, you think that Andy Dalton would still not be able to play 5 weeks from now?

I'd say that 6+ full weeks of recovery should do for a broken thumb!

As a rule of thumb, I thought the typical recovery time for a thumb fx that doesn't require surgery is normally 3-6 weeks. Plus, he obviously hasn't thrown a football in all that time and presumable with need PT to get back on track once the fx heals.

 

[captain stone]

Bill would be wise to consider limiting, if not eliminating entirely, the playing time of anybody with any sort of lingering injury before Sunday's game in New Jersey, including his QB.
The doofins game will probably be contested under less-stressful conditions, and a victory there will also give us #1 overall, just as a harder-fought Jesters win would do, and that is by no means whatsoever a sure thing.

 

[Th3Birdman]

Broncos will beat the Bengals.

Just given that scenario, the Pats will not lose the number 1 seed.

We could theoretically lose another game (hint: we won't) and still be number one because Den/Cincy have to play each other, which was a gift from the scheduling gods.

I called the standings on my facebook the day after we "lost" to the Denver Referees. I still haven't been proven wrong.

Steelers Beat Cincy.
Steelers Beat Denver.
Denver Beats Cincy. *
Pats Beat Jets*
Pats Beat Miami. *

Steelers will win out most likely, but it'd be great if they lose a trap game to Cleveland, which I think is very possible.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Steelers will win out most likely, but it'd be great if they lose a trap game to Cleveland, which I think is very possible.

If this outcome is very possible, then any event in the universe is also very possible. How is it a trap game playing the last game of the season in a do-or-die against one of the league's very worst teams who have lost to your starting QB 18 of 20 times?

 

[Th3Birdman]

If this outcome is very possible, then any event in the universe is also very possible. How is it a trap game playing the last game of the season in a do-or-die against one of the league's very worst teams who have lost to your starting QB 18 of 20 times?

It's a trap game because it's the lowly Cleveland Browns vs the "high powered offense" Steelers.

Do not be surprised if the Browns give them a game or even pull that out.

We had that same attitude going in to the Philadelphia game.

This is a classic trap game.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Denver fans are so concerned about possibly not making the playoffs that they are forced to cheer for NE next week.

Broncos need the Patriots to win next week, ugh.

This fanbase seems so manic depressive to me. There is no middle ground. On a daily basis, the Broncos are either going to lose every game by 40 points or are going to win every game by 40 points. The players and media seem like that, too. They are just so excited when they win and so dejected when they lose.

 

[FourierSeries]

This fanbase seems so manic depressive to me. There is no middle ground. On a daily basis, the Broncos are either going to lose every game by 40 points or are going to win every game by 40 points. The players and media seem like that, too. They are just so excited when they win and so dejected when they lose.

Their fans are mentally soft - just like their team.

 

[Haterproof]

I'm wondering who Pats fans will be rooting for in the Cincy vs Denver game! It really doesn't matter to me who wins! Especially if we beat the Jets on Sunday

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I'm wondering who Pats fans will be rooting for in the Cincy vs Denver game! It really doesn't matter to me who wins! Especially if we beat the Jets on Sunday

Cincy just out of natural hate for Denver.

AND, there's a good chance that Pittsburgh gets the #6 seed and plays the loser of this game. I have no confidence in the Bengals, especially with Dalton being out or injured, while I think the Broncos would do away with them at Mile High.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

I'm wondering who Pats fans will be rooting for in the Cincy vs Denver game! It really doesn't matter to me who wins! Especially if we beat the Jets on Sunday

I believe (??) a Denver loss gives us a better chance at HFA even with 2 losses in our final two games. Plus Denver still has a chance to be knocked out of the playoffs. Those two alone mean I'm rooting for Cincy.

 

[captain stone]

The ideal scenario is:
1. NE
2. CIN
3. DEN
4. HOU
5.KC
6. NYJ

Brady, Mccaron, Osweiler, Yates?, Smith, Fitzpatrick...How unreal would that be for playoff AFC qbs?

Keeping Big Ben out of this is the key... Yeah it would be fun to watch PIT-NE, but I think we can do away with a another 38-35 heart attack type of game at home

1: NO MORE INJURIES AND REST THE ALREADY-INJURED

2: Divisional round at home vs Houston

3: AFCC at home vs Cincy with ineffective Dalton (or I suppose KC with the game-manager QB & the HC who chokes in Championship games)

4: SB vs either GB (NoCal natives Brady vs Rodgers in SF) or 18-0 Carolina (with Biggest ******* in NFL Cam Newton), who I still don't believe are really all that super.
I want nothing to do with either Arizona or Seattle, aka the Best 2 Teams in NFL.

 

[dpatrick]

i'd like to see pittsburgh out may be better if we lose this week