Patriots D in 2008 - IMPROVED

[PatsFanInVa]

I think as Pats fans we've been taught that high stats are cool but versatility is cooler -- because that's the way the Pats have typically done it. With the Red Sox, for so long I use to go through the columns of stat leaders and felt that surge of pride at having the HR leader, batting average leader, or in the Pedro years, combination strikeouts/ERA leader... and for the longest time they lost anyway. With the Pats it never got like that until the offensive records last year.

I still run into fans of other teams crowing about the departure of Asante Samuel and his 10 interceptions two years ago (forgetting his six last year.)

Well, turnovers are important as hell, as an aggregate, but your first job as a CB is to make sure receivers don't catch the ball (and if they do, they pay for it. A lot. That was the old Ty Law theory.)

Asante is very good. I don't think Hobbs is as good, but coming along. Not the doormat Philip Rivers thought, you can certainly say that

But Asante is not the second coming of Deion Sanders. For the coin he wanted, he was a definite liability.

But maybe Arlen Specter is happy LOL

PFnV

 

[WhiZa]

I think every team gets better every year. You need to factor in the amount of improvement the other teams made compared to the improvement on the Patriots D.

Really the only team that made significant improvements on offense is Miami, so instead of 49-28 maybe it will be 49-35.

 

[Sicilian]

I think every team gets better every year. You need to factor in the amount of improvement the other teams made compared to the improvement on the Patriots D.

Really the only team that made significant improvements on offense is Miami, so instead of 49-28 maybe it will be 49-35.

I don't think Miami's "significant improvements" outweigh those on our defense. I think instead of 49-28, it'll probably be like 42-21

 

[Patjew]

Personally, losing Asante doesn't really worry me. Yes, the INTs were nice, but I found his overrated and too prone to taking chances for the glory pick. I actually like the DBs more this year.

Losing Rosie bothers me more, as does a still relatively old group of proven LBs. Hopeflly some of the new ones will become proven soon. That being said, I think the D will be improved this year, too. The lack of speed seemed to hurt last year and made it difficult for them to get off the field during certian stetches, and I'm excited to see that rectified.

 

[BelichickFan]

I think every team gets better every year.

Teams get better and worse all the time. Our division may largely get better because 3 of the teams were so bad last year but not all teams get better, a lot get worse; ask Bears fans.

 

[patsox23]

7. healthy hobbs
8. 2nd season for merriweather
9. tank williams is a good addition

good points that I forgot, 'though I'm less of a Hobbs fan, in-the-pink or otherwise.

 

[Sicilian]

good points that I forgot, 'though I'm less of a Hobbs fan, in-the-pink or otherwise.

I think Hobbs got bad rap last year because there was no one to really replace him. We had Asante, Hobbs, and Gay essentially, so there were situations to which Hobbs was not well suited, but was still our best option.

The last TD in the super bowl comes to mind... he was hurt, and not the best player to cover Plaxico one on one in the end zone. But with no other options really, that's what happen and the rest is just awful history.

Not sure if any of the new guys really give us better options for that exact scenario, but there seem to be more choices at least, so BB can do what he does best: put Hobbs in the best position for him to succeed.

 

[WhiZa]

Teams get better and worse all the time. Our division may largely get better because 3 of the teams were so bad last year but not all teams get better, a lot get worse; ask Bears fans.

I mean on paper. You have the draft, FA, one extra year under each player's belt. That makes every team think they have a chance before the season starts.

 

[Pats_R_#1]

I do think Asante's loss is way overblown. Allegedly the metrics for this past season for Hobbs and Asante are quite similar - I've heard it said a few times, and am waiting for football outsiders to post DB metrics for the past season to confirm. But I'd buy it. So basically, you're seeing that a hobbled Hobbs (no pun intended) was as effective - outside of causing interceptions - as Asante.

http://www.projo.com/patriots/content/sp_fbn_pats10_01-10-08_248IBHH_v10.2a34f4a.html

Hobbs gave up less TDs than Samuel, and he was a beast on Special Teams. His INT #s were a little bit lower, but he really stepped it up in the playoffs. I hate to say it, but that one-on-one play with Plaxico probably would have had the same outcome with Samuel on him. There was no help over the top, and Plax is what 6' 5"? It was a bad playcall if you ask me. It's hard for me to put all the blame on a corner for that.

 

[Pats_R_#1]

This is, of course, just a guess, and a guess from someone who does not downplay the huge loss that IS Asante Samuel. But the combination of several factors, listed below, leads me to believe that the defense will be markedly better this season. Not the kind of historic jump we saw the offense take in 2007, but a jump just the same.

1) Dom Capers
2) influx of veteran talent (mostly this is just Fernando Bryant and Victor Hobson (I guess), guys like Webster are junk)
3) The improved health of Richard Seymour
4) The "Bill Belichick being pi$$ed-off" factor
5) young, athletic playmakers - Mayo, Crable, Wheatley
6) progression of Adalius Thomas

That is all.

7. healthy hobbs
8. 2nd season for merriweather
9. tank williams is a good addition

I'd like to add to #6 and say Thomas playing more outside will be beneficial as well. As for #9, I think Williams is a much better backup at SS than we've ever had in recent years. He was awesome in Tennessee as a STARTER, and then he kind of dropped off in Minnesota due to injuries. It looks like he's healthy now though, so we could have our SS of the future already on the roster.

I think the defense has the potential to be better this season. An infusion of youth and athleticism to the linebacking corps and the secondary will offset the loss of Samuel. He is a damn good cornerback, but he's only one guy. The Pats added a crapload of defensive backs through the draft and free agency, so I'm not worried about them finding a starter to play opposite Hobbs. It will most likely be Bryant, but who knows how fast Wheatley will come along? When I look at the roster now, I see more depth and talent in the secondary, as a whole, than last year.

As I've said previously in another thread, having a dominant pass rush is key. I think the Pats will be all set in that department. Overall, I think the roster is stacked and some good players are going to get cut before the season starts.

 

[nashvillepatsfan]

http://www.projo.com/patriots/content/sp_fbn_pats10_01-10-08_248IBHH_v10.2a34f4a.html

Hobbs gave up less TDs than Samuel, and he was a beast on Special Teams. His INT #s were a little bit lower, but he really stepped it up in the playoffs. I hate to say it, but that one-on-one play with Plaxico probably would have had the same outcome with Samuel on him. There was no help over the top, and Plax is what 6' 5"? It was a bad playcall if you ask me. It's hard for me to put all the blame on a corner for that.

you beat me to it. i really think it was the call on that one that hurt, not hobbs. hobbs tried to take away the inside, which is what he was supposed to do, and there was simply no help for him. one on one in the redzone against a tall reciever should always go to the reciever. just look at moss.lol. with no help, hobbs was a 50/50 chance on that play. i think this year, he's gonna impress all the "hobbs haters" on this site.

 

[aztecafut]

you beat me to it. i really think it was the call on that one that hurt, not hobbs. hobbs tried to take away the inside, which is what he was supposed to do, and there was simply no help for him. one on one in the redzone against a tall reciever should always go to the reciever. just look at moss.lol. with no help, hobbs was a 50/50 chance on that play. i think this year, he's gonna impress all the "hobbs haters" on this site.

You know, I keep hearing that here a lot and I hope you're right. I am one of those Hobbs haters you talk about cause I really dont think he's that good. Maybe he did give up less TDs than Samuel but he gave up a lot of big plays down field that led to scores. I would really love to be proven wrong here.

 

[Pats_R_#1]

Did you read the entire article that I posted the link to? The numbers say Hobbs was better than a LOT of DBs last year, despite being injured!

According to Stats Inc., an independent sports information and statistical analysis company, opposing teams threw in Hobbs’ direction 106 times this season, ranking him 13th, but Hobbs gave up only four touchdowns. There were 44 defensive backs in the league who gave up more touchdowns than Hobbs.

Receivers caught only 58 passes in those 106 pass attempts (54.7 success rate), which is a low ratio compared to other defenders in the league. Among defensive backs thrown against at least 30 times, 156 of them were less successful than Hobbs.

Patriots defensive coordinator Dean Pees recently came to Hobbs’ defense. Last month many fans and several media outlets blamed Hobbs for a 32-yard touchdown pass by Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger to running back Najeh Davenport because he was the closest defender to Davenport, but Pees said it wasn’t Hobbs’ fault.

“To be truthful, that wasn’t even Ellis’ coverage,” Pees said. “He was close, trying to help somebody else. But he gets blamed [by the fans and the media] for the coverage. So sometimes what you all may see ... may not necessarily be what the breakdown was.”

That happens a lot, Hobbs said.

“When things like that happen, you almost want to run away from the play because you know it ain’t you,” Hobbs said. “You don’t want to be on TV. But you can’t do that.”

Hobbs gets dumped on a lot by the fans, and it's unfortunate because I think he is a damn good corner who gets raped by the officials a lot on bad calls. The numbers support my view, and I wanted to share them with people who view Hobbs in a negative light.

 

[patsox23]

Good LORD a lot of these stats are example of how numbers can lie. Can we please try to have a clue about what we actually SAW? He's not awful, but he didn't have a good season. He's a middle-of-the-road #2 DB. He isn't CLOSE to as good as Asante, no matter what the stats "show." Give me a break.

New England fans are supposed to be smart, canny and candid. Let's act like it.

 

[Pats_R_#1]

Good LORD a lot of these stats are example of how numbers can lie. Can we please try to have a clue about what we actually SAW? He's not awful, but he didn't have a good season. He's a middle-of-the-road #2 DB. He isn't CLOSE to as good as Asante, no matter what the stats "show." Give me a break.

New England fans are supposed to be smart, canny and candid. Let's act like it.

A 54.7% success rate for opposing WRs and allowing only 4 TDs is hardly what I would call a "lie". You wanna talk about what I SAW? How about bogus calls against Hobbs on multiple occasions?

I'm not trying to say Hobbs is the second coming of Deion Sanders; I'm just saying he's a good starting CB. Based on watching him play and those numbers I posted above, the evidence overwhelmingly supports my view.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I believe I already predicted that the Patriots would field their best defense yet in 2008 about a month ago but got bured by the bashers that it was too soon to predict. Is it still too soon now? I agree of course. The pieces to the puzzle are there. Now we just have to see how they work together when training camp starts. That process is going to be crucial. I look for Mayo to make an immediate impact if my prediction is to hold true.

This is, of course, just a guess, and a guess from someone who does not downplay the huge loss that IS Asante Samuel. But the combination of several factors, listed below, leads me to believe that the defense will be markedly better this season. Not the kind of historic jump we saw the offense take in 2007, but a jump just the same.

1) Dom Capers
2) influx of veteran talent (mostly this is just Fernando Bryant and Victor Hobson (I guess), guys like Webster are junk)
3) The improved health of Richard Seymour
4) The "Bill Belichick being pi$$ed-off" factor
5) young, athletic playmakers - Mayo, Crable, Wheatley
6) progression of Adalius Thomas

That is all.

 

[Sicilian]

Good LORD a lot of these stats are example of how numbers can lie. Can we please try to have a clue about what we actually SAW? He's not awful, but he didn't have a good season. He's a middle-of-the-road #2 DB. He isn't CLOSE to as good as Asante, no matter what the stats "show." Give me a break.

New England fans are supposed to be smart, canny and candid. Let's act like it.

Ok, but a lot of the reason people say Samuel was better is because he had more interceptions... a statisitic.

Statistics don't lie, they can just be misinterpreted. I will also bring up something I tend to bring up in every Hobbs vs. Samuel debate... Asante Samuel in his first few years wasn't as good as Asante Samuel is now either.

 

[Wotan_the_Wanderer]

http://www.projo.com/patriots/content/sp_fbn_pats10_01-10-08_248IBHH_v10.2a34f4a.html

Hobbs gave up less TDs than Samuel,

This is interesting to me not for the reason of gauging who between Asante and Hobbs is better, but because one area that NEEDS to be improved upon in '08 is the passing TDs given up category. The '07 secondary gave up 23 passing TDs. Only the '05 defense gave up more of all the squads from '01-'07 at 25 followed by the '02 defense which gave up 23. Incidently, a stat that seems counterintuitive to the "old and slow" LB crew are the rushing TDs given up. The past three years, the "old and slow" defense gave up 11 rushing TDs each year. The '03 and '04 defenses gave up 10 and 9 rushing TDs respectively. Thus, given the consistency in this department, I expect the '08 defense to be in the 11 rushing TDs given up range, give or take one or two TDs and predicated on the return of Seau.

But to get back to the initial point, there were obviously issues in the subpackages like the 3 safety nickle and dime sets. Regardless of whether the problem was due to personnel, the defensive calls, the schemes themselves or a combination of all three, and I'm also considering the situations here though even in prevent mode protecting leads TDs given up are still TDs given up that represent a failure by the defense, issues in the secondary need to be worked out if the '08 defense seeks to improve upon the '07's output. There really isn't much room to improve upon from the '07 defense that was ranked fourth in the league in total points given up, but cutting down on the passing TDs given up while remaining consistent in the rush TDs given up from previous years' squads is one way to get back to the top 1 or 2. This I fully expect to happen in '08.

 

[emoney_33]

Good LORD a lot of these stats are example of how numbers can lie. Can we please try to have a clue about what we actually SAW? He's not awful, but he didn't have a good season. He's a middle-of-the-road #2 DB. He isn't CLOSE to as good as Asante, no matter what the stats "show." Give me a break.

New England fans are supposed to be smart, canny and candid. Let's act like it.

You must think BB and the patriots coaching staff are a bunch of incompetent morons too. I mean it's so obvious how bad Hobbs is, yet they continuously match him up against top receivers, 1 on 1. Heck they even have the audacity to stick him on Chad Johnson for the bulk of the game, man to man.

Hobbs cannot be that good. I mean Samuel forces the Patriots to adapt their secondary schemes to fit his zone-style route-jumping instincts, and refuse to play Samuel in man to man situations. Hobbs goes out injured, plays all styles and still allows fewer TD's and a relatively low reception rate. Nope the kid is terrible. Oh how I long for the days of a young Samuel playing man defense without the ability to find a damn thing in the air.

The fact is actually that you cannot possibly remember, record and analyze the information it takes to make an even slightly educated estimate as to how good/bad Ellis Hobbs or any other defender is. The lack of information you have while "watching" is amazing, not to mention that your brain is not going to track every tiny detail required in analyzing a DB in the NFL and remember it over the course of months through the season, and years accross seasons.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, Hobbs has been our best DB since he took over for that Duane Starks character. The Hobbs doubters/bashers/haters will also not give him credit this year. He will have a tremendous year, but Capers and the coaches will get most of the credit for "getting a lot out of a little".

I for one can't wait to see what this defense can do. The coaches have A LOT of flexibility and shouldn't as limited to what they can scheme/call as they used to be.

 

[Metaphors]

Anyone stop to think that maybe everyone is partially correct about Hobbs...and partially incorrect as well?

Hobbs has a great short-area skill set. He is smart enough to absorb enough of the defense that he rarely comes off the field. He is tough and generally wins his share of individual matchups with top-shelf receivers.

Hobbs does have some questions about his instincts (which have improved) and positioning. The longer he has to defend, the more his limitations are exposed.

Why just focus on one area and ignore the rest? Hobbs has lots of room to improve but there is no reason to believe that he can't step up his play to the next level with some more experience. He is 25 years old with 3 seasons of experience. If healthy, I think this year will give a much better insight into his ceiling than the last 3 years.

I think you can say that about a bunch of Pats this year (Hobbs, Meriweather, Watson, DThomas, JSanders, CJack, Kaczur, Gostkowski, Maroney). Add in getting a glimpse of the draft picks (keeping expectations in line) and I think that the 2008 team will be a real bellweather for the next 3+ years. If the guys above put in the work and take their game to the next level, the Pats would effectively have reloaded on the fly from the 2004 SB winner while still staying at a championship level.

Besides Watson's redshirt year, those players collectively have as many SB rings as I do. They have all been 1 minute from the Super Bowl (and taking the Bears out behind the woodshed) and 35 seconds from winning a Super Bowl. Think Hobbs and the others aren't sufficiently motivated to take their games to the next level? While I fully realize that sometimes players regress or don't reach their potential, I am stoked to see how the 2008 team develops.