Overrated/Underrated WRs

[spacecrime]

Wes Welker: He is being touted as a vastly underrated player, but his 7.2 YPA last year ranked 55th in the league.

When I first read this, I assumed that it was a good thing, so I'm surprised to learn it is bad for a slot receiver to be ranked 55th in ypa. Given that there are two outside guys on every team that go deep (or 64 wideouts), it means a slot guy actually has more ypa than some starting wideouts.

Guess it doesn't matter. As aquaboy and welker83 pointed out, Culpepper has better career stats than Brady.

Joyner's "scientific" analysis show the importance of the assumptions made in any analysis.

His earlier analysis of Moss made detailed predictions of what he would do in NE based on his number of catches and yards gained in Oakland.

I think he did the same for Jerry Porter, based on Porter catching one pass for 19 yards in four games. Well, the liklihood of extrapolating that out to 2008 Porter catching 4 passes for 76 if he were traded to the Pats or Ravens or Bengals or whoever and played for 16 games is not a very scientific analysis.

 

[Keegs]

is it even possible for Reggie Brown to be "underrated?"

what the hell?
last year was his 2nd year.

somebody should push that guy into a pool of thumbtacks.

 

[PatsSteve1]

Joyner's "scientific" analysis show the importance of the assumptions made in any analysis.

His earlier analysis of Moss made detailed predictions of what he would do in NE based on his number of catches and yards gained in Oakland.

* When Joyner does these metrics on players at certain positions, he never takes into consideration what team they played on or in a WR's case, what QB was throwing to them. And I'm not bringing this up to defend Welker and Moss, but I've seen it in his other stuff. It's kind of a "blinders on" look at players at a position.

 

[Metaphors]

so many WRs can get first downs..i dont know what the big deal is

Are you serious? You really believe that on a passing 3rd down, the majority of receivers can:
1) Separate quickly (before the rush kills the QB)
2) Run the right route and/or make the right route adjustments
3) Consistently catch the ball (no drops, bobbles or tips)
4) Get past the first down marker
5) Not put the ball on the turf

I'm not even sure that Welker can consistently do this, but that is a key need for the Pats. You think Jason Taylor is counting to "thousand-5" to give Brady a chance to find Stallworth? By the time Moss gets to full speed, Brady will likely have thrown the ball away or be taking a hit. Watson has struggled catching the quick slant and drag routes (to be fair, he was in a crowd quite a bit of the time...hopefully improves on consistency with more space to operate).

Are receivers with these particular skills common in the NFL? Andre Johnson is the prototype in my eyes. Hines Ward and Steve Smith also come to mind. Probably a handful of others. Think Vick and Eli wouldn't kill for a receiver that can consistently turn 3rd-and-medium into first downs? I think these skills are less common than you would think.

If Welker can fill this role, it means a fresh set of downs for Stallworth, Moss, Watson, Maroney and company to attack the end zone. So I think that Welker could be a Pats' MVP with modest stats....if he can get the tough first downs that eventually result in scores (think 2nd Jets game last year) or eat up the clock (think AFCC game).

 

[BHSL2]

If Welker can fill this role, it means a fresh set of downs for Stallworth, Moss, Watson, Maroney and company to attack the end zone. So I think that Welker could be a Pats' MVP with modest stats....if he can get the tough first downs that eventually result in scores (think 2nd Jets game last year) or eat up the clock (think AFCC game).

Great point. We don't expect him to be some go-to number one receiver type, but he fills the much-needed slot receiver position on the Pats roster.

 

[Rob0729]

I agree with other posters when they say that Welker can't be overrated. The guy was used as a possession and slot WR last year. Those guys are used to get the tough yards, not stretch the field. If they ran him outside more than on the occassional basis, I would agree. But he was rarely used that way.

That is the equivelant of trashing a RB's yard per carry if he was primarily used for short yardage and goalline situations (like the Bus was criticized at times and by some at the end of his career).

 

[patpatriot]

As far as Welker goes, I gotta go with the eyeball test over the stat approach. In the games I saw, Welker looked like a *football player*. As far as the price to get him goes, which WR would you take over Welker who was available available in Round 2 when the Pats picked? Not to mention the Pats spent a #2 last year for Jackson; how did that work out?

 

[patriotsdynasty12189]

This stat is worthless if he thinks Torry Holt is overated....

 

[Remix 6]

This stat is worthless if he thinks Torry Holt is overated....

hes basing it off last season because he made pro bowl but his metrics were pretty bad and well below his normal

 

[Remix 6]

Are you serious? You really believe that on a passing 3rd down, the majority of receivers can:
1) Separate quickly (before the rush kills the QB)
2) Run the right route and/or make the right route adjustments
3) Consistently catch the ball (no drops, bobbles or tips)
4) Get past the first down marker
5) Not put the ball on the turf

1) What if hes lined up against a LB and LB blitzes leaving 1 man open in a zone? wide open..all he needs to do is catch it. Its also possible that he did a quick slant. Possible that the defenses werent that good or prepared

2) right route..arent all WRs trained to? I dont hear much about WRs not running the right route and adjustments comes off chemistry with the QB

3) Never said he couldnt catch

4 ) Get past first down marker..you catch..Welker doesnt break tackles nor does he juke people out or outrun them. Once he catches the ball he either has room or he goes down on early contact

 

[BHSL2]

Welker doesnt break tackles nor does he juke people

Actually...

Well, I suppose it doens't matter. I'm sure he's been told many times that he couldn't be an NFL receiver. Let's hope that as a Patriot, he keeps proving people wrong.

 

[Oswlek]

1) What if hes lined up against a LB and LB blitzes leaving 1 man open in a zone? wide open..all he needs to do is catch it. Its also possible that he did a quick slant. Possible that the defenses werent that good or prepared

2) right route..arent all WRs trained to? I dont hear much about WRs not running the right route and adjustments comes off chemistry with the QB

3) Never said he couldnt catch

4 ) Get past first down marker..you catch..Welker doesnt break tackles nor does he juke people out or outrun them. Once he catches the ball he either has room or he goes down on early contact

So.... you must feel the same way about Troy Brown, right?

 

[VJCPatriot]

Why don't you just go ahead and say that you don't like Wes Welker?
It's ok, nobody's going to excommunicate you for having an opinion so long as you're forthright about it.

Myself? I'll watch the games and see what he can do before I crucify the new kid.

BTW if Torry Holt is overrated, he's the kind of overrated that I'd like to have on this team. Go ahead and call me unscientific.

1) What if hes lined up against a LB and LB blitzes leaving 1 man open in a zone? wide open..all he needs to do is catch it. Its also possible that he did a quick slant. Possible that the defenses werent that good or prepared

2) right route..arent all WRs trained to? I dont hear much about WRs not running the right route and adjustments comes off chemistry with the QB

3) Never said he couldnt catch

4 ) Get past first down marker..you catch..Welker doesnt break tackles nor does he juke people out or outrun them. Once he catches the ball he either has room or he goes down on early contact

 

[zippo59]

Joyner raises some interesting discussions, but sometimes I think he can't see the forest through the trees.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Exactly right. Welker just gets open, catches the ball, and holds on to it. Will Wes Welker burn you for a 50-yard bomb in the air? No. Welker will keep the drive alive, with exceptional surehandedness. And no, the oncoming hit does not rattle him.

He isn't paid like a gamebreaker, but he's also not paid like he's an iffy proposition. Alone among the newbies, his contract is written like we want him onboard for a while, not as a "show me" year followed by multiple decision points. Sure he can be dumped but it looks very unlikely.

Maybe BB/SP are saying something with that: If you get blue-chip play, you need to prove blue-chip production. If you have proven production at another level, we also consider the consistency at that level when signing deals. Worst thing that can happen is drives that would otherwise stall stay alive (the Pats' stock in trade over the years.) The aerial circus aspect, much as we all want to watch it unfold, becomes somewhat optional if the air game is healthy enough to keep the ground and short passing game ticking.

I'm not saying I don't want to see a number of long Brady TD tosses this year, I do. I am just saying, the bump to the long drives, the Pats traditional method of getting down the field, is probably even more important. (Yeah stack 8 in the box this year. Dare ya.)

PFnV

 

[Remix 6]

Why don't you just go ahead and say that you don't like Wes Welker?
It's ok, nobody's going to excommunicate you for having an opinion so long as you're forthright about it.

Myself? I'll watch the games and see what he can do before I crucify the new kid.

BTW if Torry Holt is overrated, he's the kind of overrated that I'd like to have on this team. Go ahead and call me unscientific.

i never said i dont like Welker. Nothing wrong with him till people started making him out to be the next great. Face it..your overrating him. Hope he proves me wrong but hes not better than Randy, Donte, Ben or Chad. I dont see him having the 90+ catch season ya'll believe he'll have