holyredeemer
In the Starting Line-Up
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- Feb 17, 2006
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I think you're going WAY too far in the other direction. What you've said renders play selection meaningless -- might as well run it up the middle on 3rd and 15 if all that matters in this game is reaction speed, and execution.
Absolutely every NFL coach relies on "averages" to make decisions. That's why they're passing on 3rd and long, punting rather than attempting 70-yard field goals, etc. What's unusual about Belichick is his willingness to reconsider longtime conventional football wisdom when data point him in a different direction.
The studies described in that article do NOT tell you what the right move is in a particular real-world game situation, given the myriad variables of personnel, field, etc. They DO suggest that coaches should adjust how they make those decisions to avoid common biases in judgment. E.g., the fact that overall, NFL teams punt and go for 2-point conversions too often shows that the current conventional wisdom is flawed. A competitive advantage can be gained by fixing those flaws, and Adams & Belichick will be out in front trying to grab that advantage.
Probably the clearest example of this is in the part about the draft and "hyperbolic discounting." We all know that the Pats trade picks into the future to improve positioning more than any team we've ever seen. They're systematically taking advantage of the established "1 round up" for a future pick -- which for teams with stable management is simply an irrationality in the market. It's basic draft pick arbitrage.
By reaction speed and execution, I wasn't just referring to on the field play. I'm at fault for not explaining what I meant better. I was referring to all aspects of the game. Whether it be on the field, to the film room and to the coaches preparing and calling the plays. Everything you need to know is right in front of you on the video tape. That's all I was trying to get at. A lot of what has been said is interesting, but in the bigger scheme of things, there is far too much involved to take any of the information presented about a team into account.
I'm not disagreeing with anything you have said. Your post was very well presented. But, I just take all of the statistical information with a grain of salt when it comes to what is successful and what is not.