OT - Thoughts on the rookie QBs to this point

[BobDigital]

Every rookie QB who was drafted high has now played at least 1 game in the preseason. A lot of people talk about bringing guys along slowly and these kids needing time before we know what they are. I disagree to an extent. I think a player usually shows you very early if he has what it takes or not. It doesn't need to all be perfect and it won't be usually. But there are things you can look for if a QB gets a substantial amount of preseason game action. I think after seeing these guys play we already have a good sense on if they will be something or not to a higher degree of certainty than most would like to admit.

Sam Darnald - NYJ - He will be the best QB in this class. In part because he landed in a better situation than others to be fair. While I don't think he will ever be elite he clearly has a feel for the game. His first preseason game and he is already manipulating pass rushers to buy a split second to convert a 3rd and 7. He can work the underneath well and that is half of the job of a QB. He is happy to let guys make the play for him instead of trying to do it all himself. I think he will be a solid starting QB for years to come.

Josh Rosen - Cardinals - This is going to be a frustrating QB. He clearly has the talent and ability to stick but he showed very little 'feel' for the game. When the pass rush came he made a lot of mistakes. He held on to the ball way too long and doesn't know when to give up on a play. He does a good job keeping his eyes down field but seems unwilling to take smaller gains. I think he will have a chance to be something but likely will never put the mental part of the game together, but will make enough good plays. It will be hard to give up on him for a while.

Josh Allen - Bills - What did I think when I saw him play? Clearly he has a great arm. The accuracy could be better but that may improve in time. Maybe nerves. The accuracy doesn't worry me much. What does worry me is how robotic he seems. He's good when he is pushing the ball down the middle of the field 10-20 yards. When things don't open like he expects he doesn't seem to know what to do and runs. That is a really bad sign. One of the worst signs was his run with 2 minutes to go in the game. A lot of people will say "what a great run!" I don't feel that way. The pass rush was pushed behind him and taken out of the play. The OL stoned the DT in front of him. He had plenty of time to look down field. A really good QBs chill in the pocket and wait for a WR to open up. Allen, when his first read wasn't open, decided to run. I don't think he pans out. He seems unable to read the speed of an NFL field.

Lamar Jackson - Ravens - The guy can't pass at the NFL level. He will be forced to run to be semi-effective and get hurt and will bust out fast. There really isn't much to say about him besides that. Anyone trying to talk themselves into him being not a bust and that he will learn to be a QB after seeing that preseason game is fooling themselves. He will show flashes and make a few plays but it won't be enough.

Baker Mayfield - Browns - This is a guy who may give the Browns some hope. His 3rd and 18 conversion was legit. Stepping up into a clean pocket to let the pass rusher over run him while keeping his eyes down field. The throw could have been better but the actions were correct. I loved his 3rd and 6 run. It was great because he kept his eyes down field the whole time while escaping to the side looking for every chance to throw before he ran for it. That is how you want a QB to run. You want your QB to always be thinking 'pass first'. That 2nd and goal TD pass where he hung in a clean pocket and got off his first read to go to his 2nd and waited for him to come open. Wonderful stuff. He had a 1st and 10 completion at about 3:30 in the 2nd for a first down. Avoided the pressure just long enough and threw the pass to a safe spot for a new set of downs. He needs to work on his accuracy a bit as it is inconsistent, but his ability to feel the pocket and avoid the rush to buy time is clearly there.

I would have liked to talk about Mason Rudolph too but he just didn't have enough snaps. Overall I found it uninspiring backup level play but it's hard to know.

Final verdicts.

Mayfield and Darnald are the guys who will be good in the NFL 10 years from now. Mayfield looks legit and he has a chance to resurrect the Browns franchise (someone had to do it eventually.) Darnald, while I don't think he is going to be the play maker Mayfield can be, will be a solid starter.

Rosen and Allen will frustrate and stick around for a while before people realize they aren't the answer. Too many issues with them. Rosen has a chance to maybe prove me wrong if he gets out of his own way, but i think he is too head strong to do it. Allen I don't think has a chance. Future backup.

Lamar Jackson will be the first one out of the NFL and will be another cautionary tale of falling in love with running QBs.

Your thoughts so far? Youtube has various videos showing every pass/play the QBs made in their preseason games if you didn't get to see them all.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

What about #5 on our team?

 

[SammyBlueCat]

I know I know - he will be lucky to make the practice squad...

 

[Joker]

"Sam Donald - NYJ - He will be the best QB in this class."


who the hell is Sam DONALD?

 

[TheRainMaker]

Baker Mayfield - has the swagger the QB position desperately for needs for the NFL. If he is good, he will be a huge draw for prime time games and bring Cleveland out of the dumps.

Sam Darnold - watched all his games at SC. Can be a very good QB but like Mark Sanchez, he’s extremely careless with the football. He needs to have better pocket awareness as he is prone to strip sacks because he holds the ball so low. It looks like his throwing motion is quicker as it was a long wind up at SC. With that being said, he can put a team on his back and take over games.

Lamar Jackson - Ravens f***ed that one up. Start the countdown for the firing of Harbaugh. Thanks Ozzy!

Josh Allen - I initially thought he reminded me of Flacco as you said he’s “robotic”. But as of right now he reminds me more of Jay Cutler or Rich Gannon as they throw the ball overhand and side arm depending on the play.

Josh Rosen - don’t understand the hype. Nobody in LA cared about him and for good reason. He couldn’t lead his team to victories. Doesn’t have the talent Darnold has.

Overall, I think this class will end up being very solid, if not the best since 2004. Although I didn’t like it, I can see why New England was rumored to trade up for one.

 

[Joker]

D-a-r-n-o-l-d...if you're going full pontificatus blabberatus at least get the kid's name right. Makes us look like rubes...

 

[supafly]

I believe that Mason Rudolph went 7/11, which is a pretty decent start for a rookie. They probably didn’t play him all that much because of Landry Jones and Josh Dobbs.

 

[Deus Irae]

Your thoughts so far?

I think that anyone seriously evaluating these QBs after one preseason game, particularly if they are also ranking them, needs to realize that football doesn't work that way.

 

[tasmlab]

What was the verdict on Brady after the first preseason game in 2000?

 

[Brandon_Cox]

Lamar Jackson will be the first one out of the NFL and will be another cautionary tale of falling in love with running QBs.

Let's suppose you're right about Lamar Jackson not being an NFL quarterback. That doesn't automatically mean he'll be out of the league. He still has an insane amount of NFL quality athleticism. For instance, think about the qbs who became wide receivers: Terrelle Pryor, Hines Ward, Jules, etc. He still has a bright NFL future.

 

[luuked]

Your thoughts so far? Youtube has various videos showing every pass/play the QBs made in their preseason games if you didn't get to see them all.

Really interesting read.

The only think I like to add is that what will make or break any of those QBs will be how much they can grow game-to-game especially in the first season. The games they have just played will be the easiest ones in their professional career. Next offseason when some of them have already faded and there is a lot of tape on the ones that had a strong rookie year we will see how many can stay on a strong trajectory.

I am not particularly impressed with any of them yet but it is pretty early.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

I like Rosen but hard to succeed when you have a crappy O line. I think Bradford will start but likely get hurt somewhere during the season. The cardinals to

I think this is the best QB class i have seen in a long time talent wise. I think darnold will start for the jests. Mayfield won’t but likely halfway will take over.

 

[BobDigital]

What was the verdict on Brady after the first preseason game in 2000?

He tossed 4 passes in that game but looked good in that one and in the 2nd. I saw a doc where BB said something like "after that game we felt we made the right choice".

She he seems to be in the camp of even early on you can tell a lot. I am not saying you can tell who will be or won't be an all time great. It isn't like you can for see a guys exact career obviously. But you can catch on pretty quickly if this is an NFL quality player or not.

 

[BobDigital]

Let's suppose you're right about Lamar Jackson not being an NFL quarterback. That doesn't automatically mean he'll be out of the league. He still has an insane amount of NFL quality athleticism. For instance, think about the qbs who became wide receivers: Terrelle Pryor, Hines Ward, Jules, etc. He still has a bright NFL future.

Interesting idea. But most QB converts really have to do it early. If you don't get the reps in and build up your body to do those things in your younger 20s you probably will never be able to do it. Hines Wards and Edelman were both successful converts because they started the process early (Hines Ward IIRC played more WR than QB in the college too) and it took years before their talent caught up to their abilities.

Ward became a 1000 yards WR in his 4th year playing WR and Edelman in his 5th year. Those kind of projects usually take times.

Terrelle Pryor is the only case I can think of when a QB converting to WR bore fruit in the 2nd year in the process. His talent carried over to big time results on the field quicker than maybe anyone else ever had in that kind of situation in the recent NFL. He did get hurt last year and didn't come anywhere close to those 2016 numbers. That perhaps raises a few questions.

It could that is just bad luck or maybe the cause is his body isn't built to take the pounding an NFL WR has to. It takes a long time to build up your body to take the full work load of an NFL WR no doubt. Years of training probably need to go into it. I'm very curious to see what he does this year.

Lamar Jackson seems much smaller than Pryor though (about the same height, but just thinner) so I wonder if he could convert and build up his body to take those hits. I have to admit, I never considered the idea of him sticking as a WR. Maybe he could. But I think history shows the longer you wait the harder it is. A lot of running QBs probably tried to convert later in their career and failed.

Very interesting point though.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I love ya Bob & agree w you to extent. You don't have to wait 3 years or a certain amount of time for some players. That's nonsense. I do it before they enter the NFL so I agree there.

That said I disagree on some of your points.

Josh looked very comfortable identifying pressure & carving out a new platform to work from. Other times he simply got the ball too quick for the rush to get to him. It's only 1 preseason game but evidence would suggest otherwise.



Jackson is def a work in progress but again his body of work would suggest otherwise. From running a pro style offense, looking to pass first & making actual NFL type passes. He's a different QB that most & again you can't judge them all on the same criteria.



Also it can't be stated enough. This was preseason 1. I think this was a unbelievable class & that will show in time.

 

[PatsFan2]

What no Danny Etling??

 

[PatsFan2]

Seriously not going to lie but I envy those Teams long term future at the position over ours. Did I mention Trader Bill got hosed by a ROOKIE GM for Jimmy G.

 

[BobDigital]

I love ya Bob & agree w you to extent. You don't have to wait 3 years or a certain amount of time for some players. That's nonsense. I do it before they enter the NFL so I agree there.

That said I disagree on some of your points.

Josh looked very comfortable identifying pressure & carving out a new platform to work from. Other times he simply got the ball too quick for the rush to get to him. It's only 1 preseason game but evidence would suggest otherwise.



Jackson is def a work in progress but again his body of work would suggest otherwise. From running a pro style offense, looking to pass first & making actual NFL type passes. He's a different QB than most & again you can't judge them all on the same criteria.



Also it can't be stated enough. This was preseason 1. I think this was a unbelievable class & that will show in time.

We see things differently on one point. Once a player gets into the NFL I pretty much burn the college tape from my mind and focus only on what they have done at this level. You seem to keep looking at the college tape and trying to project it to the NFL.

I don't think either idea is automatically wrong at this point. A good argument can be made to do both with such limited of game speed NFL reps. Jackson now has 2 preseason performances in the bag. It does beg the question, at what point do we all need to completely move on from the college tape? I don't know if there is a clear answer for that.

I do agree we can't judge all QBs the same, but i'm a believer that if a QB can't win in the pocket that he can't win consistently in the NFL. So far I feel confident saying no QB has disproved that. Maybe Jackson does but I just don't see it. He has too far to go and will need to depend on his legs for a long time. In the mean time he will get hurt sadly.

When it comes to Rosen I was a little hard on him perhaps, but stand by my prediction. I did say that he has a chance to prove me wrong as I did see some encouraging flashes from him and he did deliver some nice throws. He is clearly the #3 QB from this draft right now and I believe he is far ahead of Allen and Jackson.

While he had to deal with some bad snaps and below average pass blocking I saw a number of things that concerned me. Let's turn to the tape you posted (the same tape I watched).

:20 - I don't mind that he couldn't thread the needle on a well covered WR. I was concerned that he forced the first read when it wasn't there. He had protection this time but still made up his mind before the play to go to his first read. I didn't like that aspect of it.

:55 - He failed to sense the pressure on a deep drop. He actually backed up a bit too much initially, which made things harder on the LT. If he stays where the ball was snapped to him or only takes 1 or 2 steps back the LT can forced the DE around him. If he kept his depth reasonable there were 2 open guys underneath he could have gone to. This shows a bad feel for the pocket to some degree.

1:15 - Again he locks on his go to route and throws it into contested coverage. He may have been able to get it to 18 underneath (I think it was 18). Even if not, it would be a safer and smarter pass.

There are others things I could point out but these are the red flags that make me nervous. He seems to lock on to his first read way too often and will force it rather than scan the field. His pocket presence is questionable too. I think he also showed some promising things and has the chance to be a good QB. But I don't get the sense that is more likely to happen than not happen. Could be wrong on Rosen. I don't think I am on the other 2.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Seriously not going to lie but I envy those Teams long term future at the position over ours. Did I mention Trader Bill got hosed by a ROOKIE GM for Jimmy G.

Brady’s likely playing the next 3 years if he doesn’t hit that cliff.

 

[PatriotsNumero1Fan]

Seriously not going to lie but I envy those Teams long term future at the position over ours. Did I mention Trader Bill got hosed by a ROOKIE GM for Jimmy G.

Brady’s likely playing the next 3 years if he doesn’t hit that cliff.