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OT: PatsFans.com Stats Database Accuracy - How Accurate Is it?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Ian, Feb 8, 2013.

  1. Ian

    Ian Administrator Staff Member

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    It's a snow day after my work closed early, so I was sitting here going over a few things after a couple people e-mailed me recently questioning the accuracy of our stats database compared to Pro-Football-Reference.com, ESPN etc. after they pointed out a couple of discrepancies - most notably on 1st and 3rd down.

    So I ran through and compared our numbers using the Pro-Football-Reference.com tool (Game Play Finder / <a href="/play-index/play_finder.cgi?super_bowl=1">Super Bowl Play Finder</a> - Pro-Football-Reference.com) and found a discrepancy on 1st & 3rd down where they were higher on one, and lower on another compared to my numbers.

    Upon review, the first discrepancy was in the Jets game on Thanksgiving on a first down play that they counted as an attempt was a safety by Brady - which was nullified because the play was blown dead (ie: No Play). So there was no pass attempt even though they counted it anyway. They actually still have Brady's final totals as 18-of-28 instead of 18-of-27 - which was what his final stat line was later changed to in the official game books by the league. I checked and it looks like even the official team site still has the original game book with the incorrect totals.

    NFL.com has the game-log with the corrected updated numbers:

    Tom Brady: Game Logs at NFL.com

    The second discrepancy came on a 3rd down play in the Seattle game at the end of the first half on an intentional grounding penalty on Brady that was declined. They didn't count the attempt, but since the penalty was declined it still counts as a pass attempt and should have been included with the totals. Our numbers matched the official game book released by the league, which I review following each game to ensure accuracy.

    Another odd thing with them is when you use the "Game Play Finder Query Results" you'll also notice if you do a full season search for this year (excluding playoffs) it comes up with 35 regular season touchdowns for Brady instead of 34. I'm not sure why that is, but it's obviously not right.

    Also after reading Bedard's column a few weeks ago regarding Welker (Marriage between Wes Welker and New England Patriots looks strong - Patriots - Boston.com) he listed Welker with 166 targets, based on his source from ProFootballFocus.com. That didn't sound right to me and after review my totals had him with 175 targets - which is correct. ESPN has 174, which after doing some digging and looking at the individual game-by-game splits, I found the error. They listed Welker with 8 targets instead of 9 against San Francisco, which is incorrect. If you review the gamebook you'll see the inaccuracy:

    http://prod.static.patriots.clubs.nfl.com/assets/docs/gamebooks/2012/20121216_gamebook.pdf

    On another note Bedard also released an article today talking about some of the numbers from this season:

    Looking at the 2012 Patriots by the numbers - Sports - The Boston Globe

    In the article it lists the team having had 68 plays of 20 yards or more, which if you review this page:

    2012 Patriots Offensive Play Broken Down by Distance Gained

    and add the totals from these two:

    Houston Texans Playoff Game Stats
    Baltimore Ravens Playoff Game Stats

    It totals out to 68 - which is what Greg listed :)

    One last note after reviewing this page and comparing it against the official league splits:
    2012 Patriots Defensive Stats, Breaking Down The Patriots Performances on 1st Down, 2nd Down, 3rd Down,4th Down and Total Number of Plays

    All the numbers matched :cool:

    So for anyone wondering how accurate those are, it looks like we're actually even better than a couple of other sites :)
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2013
  2. thenepatsrule

    thenepatsrule Rookie

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    Before you guys can start thanking me , let me say

    You are welcome!!!


    All kidding aside great job Ian and other mods,this is the best sports forum on the web :rocker::rocker:
  3. Ian

    Ian Administrator Staff Member

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    #17 Jersey

    LOL, wasn't doing it for that reason, just wanted to see if everything was actually correct. So I went back through every game and every play to check and make sure that we didn't have any errors, and then compared them against those two to figure out where the discrepancies were. Was surprised that ours was right and theirs wasn't. I wasn't expecting that - especially considering that they're both "official sources" - but hopefully it clears it up for the people in here wondering how accurate it is.

    I set it up primarily just to make it easier to look up numbers that other sites don't have readily available and to be able to manipulate them as necessary. But hopefully people in here also find them useful.
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2013
  4. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yahoo! Video Detail

    No offense meant, just thought I'd try a little humor on this lousy day.... :D
  5. Ian

    Ian Administrator Staff Member

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    Too funny :D

    I think it was just nice to see that ours was accurate. It's a lot of work, but it's been helpful having our own - although the pages still need some tweaking. After confirming that all the base data is correct I'll now spend part of the offseason trying to expand it with additional breakdowns that will be useful comparing against next season's numbers.

    Obviously if anyone has any suggestions or requests for stats you'd like to see, definitely post them. Always looking for new ideas :)
  6. thenepatsrule

    thenepatsrule Rookie

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    I would like to see the collective IQ of all the Jets fans combined as a stat :D
  7. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    You can't divide by zero
  8. thenepatsrule

    thenepatsrule Rookie

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    I was just kidding, sorry if it did not come out as intended. Again, great job with the site and the stats. :rocker:
  9. Ian

    Ian Administrator Staff Member

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    I didn't take it badly and I knew you were just kidding, so no worries at all :)

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