No respect??? Pats odds-on favorites

[OldEnglandPatriot]

not odds-on

I hate to be mr Quibbly, but the Patriots aren't 'odds-on favourites'. 'Odds on' refers to odds where you are getting less than your unit stake in profit, eg odds of 9/10 where you get 90 cents profit for every dollar you stake.

Unless the term means something different in the States - in which case it would be helpful for me to know what it means

 

[SoCal Bong]

Pats win 11 or more games?

The season wins line is 10.5 (Pats have to go 11-5 or better to win the OVER). Last year it was the same (10.5) and looked good until they gave away the Miami game for seeding purposes despite what felt like a poor season and all the injuries endured. I should have hedged that final game but I didn't think BB would ever not try to win a game but that's spilt milk.

This year our schedule is a bit easier and I figure our POSSIBLE losses are:
Denver
At Cincinnati
Indianapolis
At Miami

Of course we will probably also drop a game or two against other opponents but we will probably also win one or two of the above so a 12 & 4 record is realistic and still allows for a one game "whoops" cushion.

You could add at Jacksonville to that list but I have a feeling they won't be as strong this year.

I am thinking of placing a relatively large wager on this in the next week or so as I figure the line will only go up (actually adjusted by juice initially before it actually moves up to 11).

BTW, if you are going to play a large futures bet on the Pats (to win the SB or season wins), you can get somewhat better odds through offshore (illegal) sportsbooks in comparison to Vegas though the issues regarding that option are up to you. Let's not get into that discussion here please.

Thoughts & opinions on the season win total?

 

[shakadave]

NEM's right on the money. Besides, speaking for myself, I don't claim that the oddsmakers don't respect the Pats..... My gripe is with the talking heads. I just find so many of them unintelligent. They disrespect the Patriots, because they don't understand many of your points above NEM.

I'll echo it --- you're right NEM. The draft catapulted the Pats (and Carolina, I think) ahead of where they were before the draft. It's funny since a given year's draft usually pays more dividends in Year 2 than Year 1, but the betting public doesn't know that, so the casinos are correct to adjust the line.

 

[ClosingTime]

The season wins line is 10.5 (Pats have to go 11-5 or better to win the OVER). Last year it was the same (10.5) and looked good until they gave away the Miami game for seeding purposes despite what felt like a poor season and all the injuries endured. I should have hedged that final game but I didn't think BB would ever not try to win a game but that's spilt milk.

This year our schedule is a bit easier and I figure our POSSIBLE losses are:
Denver
At Cincinnati
Indianapolis
At Miami

Of course we will probably also drop a game or two against other opponents but we will probably also win one or two of the above so a 12 & 4 record is realistic and still allows for a one game "whoops" cushion.

You could add at Jacksonville to that list but I have a feeling they won't be as strong this year.

I am thinking of placing a relatively large wager on this in the next week or so as I figure the line will only go up (actually adjusted by juice initially before it actually moves up to 11).

BTW, if you are going to play a large futures bet on the Pats (to win the SB or season wins), you can get somewhat better odds through offshore (illegal) sportsbooks in comparison to Vegas though the issues regarding that option are up to you. Let's not get into that discussion here please.

Thoughts & opinions on the season win total?

I have twice bet the over on a team with a 10 or above o/u line. Both of them I lost. But looking at the schedule I don't see 6 losses. Unless there is an injury to Brady, Seymour, Bruschi or Harrison I would be shocked at more that 3 losses.
Other over under bets that look nice: under - Browns (will improve but it won't show up in the win colum, too tough a schedule), Bears (overrated) and then over: Packers, New Orleans.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I have twice bet the over on a team with a 10 or above o/u line. Both of them I lost. But looking at the schedule I don't see 6 losses. Unless there is an injury to Brady, Seymour, Bruschi or Harrison I would be shocked at more that 3 losses.

Come on, man. How spoiled did we get in 03-04?

When you run past 12 games, I don't care who you are, you're getting lucky sometimes. The "any given Sunday" rule is always in effect. I cannot believe people actually bet on the over-under for wins on the year. And yeah I'd take the over on 10.5, but only because I'm too much of a homer to think straight. It's not that I don't think the Pats are going to win 11. But I would put them right at 11 or 12. Predicting beyond that point is just blind faith in this day and age. Not that there's anything wrong with faith, I just don't want it running my financial plans.

PFnV

 

[ClosingTime]

Two things:
1. I ain't no homer. In fact I hold great disdain (a form of respect) for the Pats. I am a Steelers fan.
2. The over/under is actually a very good bet if you know how to read it. Assess the teams by last year's w/l and the schedules, personel changes, coaching changes, end of season performance and then try to find the eyesores. These can be the result of big market teams gettting more money in the pool, hype, but the best is when lines are set on apparently no rational reasoning. Last year the BIlls had no business being a 9. Other good bet was the Browns at 4. You really have to try to lose 12 games and not with that coach.
Look for the warts

 

[the taildragger]

interesting, but vegas odds have nothing to do with the opinions of ESPN

it's the best thing that could happen to Pitt though...you always want to be the underdog, even while you pretend to hate it. the odds of the steelers repeating are pretty low...just because Dr. Z might think you have to beat the champ to be the champ, vegas would be pretty dumb to install them as favorites FOR THAT REASON ALONE.

but I'll guarantee one thing: whether we're 3-point favorites over Indy, 8 out of 10 TV pundits will again have us going down in flames -- and that's all that matters to Rodney. Get ready to hear the same old cliches (weak secondary, Manning has too many weapons and his audibles are unstoppable, etc..., and when they lose be ready for all the usual excuses: it's a team game, Manning is only a poor little QB and he can't help it if his offense makes mistakes, or his coach calls the wrong plays for him, and he's basically screwed if his D can't hold a playoff-caliber O to under 17 points because he can't rise to meet that challenge).

IMO definition of "disrespect": When a team is the consensus favorite in Vegas, but 80% of the pundits still don't give them a chance in hell -- over the past few years, I can't think of another team in that situation more than the Pats.