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No respect??? Pats odds-on favorites

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by dryheat44, May 16, 2006.

  1. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey
    Last edited: May 16, 2006
  2. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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  3. arrellbee

    arrellbee Rookie

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    That's amazing. Especially since the books had the Colts as much the favorite early on. The odds-makers must have really guessed wrong on how many bettors still had this rosy-glasses view of the Colts. It's always fascinating to see the Vegas odds since it says how the betting fans view the teams (not how the bookmakers see the teams of course).
  4. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    The Patriots and Colts are actually given the same odds to get to the SB but the Patriots have a little better odds to win it if they get there - according to those odds.
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 26, 2005
  5. DarthPatriot

    DarthPatriot Banned

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    Look...We get respect.Everytime they show 10 Browns or Titans stories to 1 Pats story..They hate us.So they dont cover us.We see this as a lack of respect.We watch Espn or nfl network or any sports programming and when they talk about football you are more likely to hear about the Bills Jags or anyone besides the Pats.Even in Boston they dont get enough coverage..Its jealousy not lack of respect.But it still sucks.People putting money on us shows intelligence on their part.Would you put money on the Colts?
  6. FreeTedWilliams

    FreeTedWilliams Moderator PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I was in Vegas over the weekend, all the Sportsbooks had he Dolts at 4-1 followed by the Pats at 9-2, some other odds..

    the Jets were 40-1
    the Bills were 40-1

    The Colts were 2-1 to win the AFC, the Pats were 5-2 to win the AFC.

    The Seahawks are the favorites to win the NFC, followed by the Cowboys

    I just couldn't see puting money down at 9-2, I got 12-1 back in 2003 (a nice cash on a fifty dollar ticket).

    BTW the Sox/Yankees numbers flipped from 5-2 for the Yanks and 4-1 for the Sox to the reverse after Matsui's Pennington imitation, the other night.
  7. PatsWorldChamps

    PatsWorldChamps Rookie

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    current real odds from bodog

    colts 6.5:1
    pats 7.5:1
    steelers 10:1
    seahawks 10:1
    niners 125:1
  8. PowerAlley.com

    PowerAlley.com Rookie

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    I think it is kind of funny how the Colts are getting as much respect as they do. I know it is mostly because of their partial undefeated season last year.
    But, the table was set for them perfectly. #1 seed, 1st game vs. the 6 seed at home and they still blew it. They actually did better 2 years ago when they made it to the AFC Championship. Now they have lost EDGE, I just cant see them being favorites any more. One of the best teams in the NFL, yep they are. Favorites to win the superbowl, nope dont think so.

    Even if I wasnt a Patriots fan, I wouldnt put money on the colts. Some people are playoff winners (ie: Brady), Some are chokers(ie: Manning). Hell he could never win the big game in college, he is not going to do it in the pros. All the stars aligned for manning last year and he is still choked!

    Mike
    Poweralley.com
  9. oldrover

    oldrover Rookie

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    Brady had a little mini-choke of his own in the Denver game. But that will motivate him. :D
  10. chowder

    chowder Rookie

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    are you sure that was a choke? don't forget that he was playing with a hernia which may have affected his game.
  11. DarthPatriot

    DarthPatriot Banned

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    Hernia can only be used by Mcnabb as an excuse...Most people forget Brady had one.Cause he didnt whine and cry and hold his belly and look around and sniffle.
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  12. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    "Real" odds...?

    Sounds pretty real if a casino lets you bet on it. So at least at MGM/Mirage, that's what the betting public driven early call is.

    Now all we have to do is figure out how it happens... since Miami is a LOCK to win the AFCEast <snicker>. No really. Ask any Miami fan.

    PFnV
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 27, 2005
  13. A.C Vegas

    A.C Vegas Rookie

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    No the refs choked him completely diffrent
    Last edited: May 16, 2006
  14. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

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    Partial undefeated? No such thing. Either you're undefeated or you're not. The Colts went 14-2. They 'claimed' they wanted to rest starters but you know they wanted bad to match the Phins. They were just not deep enough. And for all the good the 'resting' did they got spanked by the Steelers which shows they weren't even close to being good enough to be undefeated that year.

    More to the point they lost the last 3/4 games they played in 2005. And despite getting the bye they simply could not grab the opportunity to get to the Superbowl. Heart of a lion, the Colts do NOT have.

    BTW Pats went 14-2 in back to back years, 2003 and 2004, winning the championship each time and they still get disrespected a lot, mostly by the mediots though.
    Last edited: May 17, 2006
  15. Bostonian1962

    Bostonian1962 Rookie

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    NEM's right on the money. Besides, speaking for myself, I don't claim that the oddsmakers don't respect the Pats..... My gripe is with the talking heads. I just find so many of them unintelligent. They disrespect the Patriots, because they don't understand many of your points above NEM.
  16. Terry Glenn is a cowgirl

    Terry Glenn is a cowgirl Banned

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    Obviously, Darthpatriot never had a hernia before...because if he/she did...he/she would have to empathize at least a little bit.

    A hernia is one of the most painful injuries that I've ever had to endure.

    At the time, I was a transfer and storage driver/mover. I regularly lifted over 100+ lbs. at a constant basis.

    Having a hernia felt worse than getting kicked in the "boys".

    If you ever had a hernia, than you know what the word pain is.

    Sorry for the rant...but...I've been there.

    I would rather have a bad lower back (hehehe...already have that) anyday then a hernia.
  17. QuiGon

    QuiGon Banned

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    I agree with the above 100%. The day after the Colts lost, Woody Paige went on one of his talking mouth shows and said (doing my best to remember) "Look, Peyton Manning is going to win his Super Bowls before he retires. He'll win at least one, maybe two."

    So I am screaming at the TV... Basically I cannot imagine a better set of circumstances the guy could ever possibly have than he had this past year. HFA advantage, Super Bowl in a dome, everyone healthy, his defense was playing better than ever, and a great RB lining up behind him.

    And he still choked it all away just like he's done in every big game he ever played in since Tennessee.
  18. T-ShirtDynasty

    T-ShirtDynasty Moderator

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    I believe Paymetons WILL win his Super Bowl, sure, maybe even two. But not until Tony Dungy is gone.
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 27, 2005
  19. DarthPatriot

    DarthPatriot Banned

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    The rant is fine but actually understand what I meant.Donovan let everyone know he had one every bad pass he threw.Brady effectively hid his.Thats damn impressive.Dont you think?
  20. big mike

    big mike Rookie

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    The odds-makers must just be assuming that the Steelers won't benefit from corrupt or inept refs again this year. ;)
  21. OldEnglandPatriot

    OldEnglandPatriot Rookie

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    not odds-on

    I hate to be mr Quibbly, but the Patriots aren't 'odds-on favourites'. 'Odds on' refers to odds where you are getting less than your unit stake in profit, eg odds of 9/10 where you get 90 cents profit for every dollar you stake.

    Unless the term means something different in the States - in which case it would be helpful for me to know what it means :)
  22. SoCal Bong

    SoCal Bong Rookie

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    Pats win 11 or more games?

    The season wins line is 10.5 (Pats have to go 11-5 or better to win the OVER). Last year it was the same (10.5) and looked good until they gave away the Miami game for seeding purposes despite what felt like a poor season and all the injuries endured. I should have hedged that final game but I didn't think BB would ever not try to win a game but that's spilt milk.

    This year our schedule is a bit easier and I figure our POSSIBLE losses are:
    Denver
    At Cincinnati
    Indianapolis
    At Miami

    Of course we will probably also drop a game or two against other opponents but we will probably also win one or two of the above so a 12 & 4 record is realistic and still allows for a one game "whoops" cushion.

    You could add at Jacksonville to that list but I have a feeling they won't be as strong this year.

    I am thinking of placing a relatively large wager on this in the next week or so as I figure the line will only go up (actually adjusted by juice initially before it actually moves up to 11).

    BTW, if you are going to play a large futures bet on the Pats (to win the SB or season wins), you can get somewhat better odds through offshore (illegal) sportsbooks in comparison to Vegas though the issues regarding that option are up to you. Let's not get into that discussion here please.

    Thoughts & opinions on the season win total?
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 28, 2005
  23. shakadave

    shakadave Rookie

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    I'll echo it --- you're right NEM. The draft catapulted the Pats (and Carolina, I think) ahead of where they were before the draft. It's funny since a given year's draft usually pays more dividends in Year 2 than Year 1, but the betting public doesn't know that, so the casinos are correct to adjust the line.
  24. ClosingTime

    ClosingTime Rookie

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    I have twice bet the over on a team with a 10 or above o/u line. Both of them I lost. But looking at the schedule I don't see 6 losses. Unless there is an injury to Brady, Seymour, Bruschi or Harrison I would be shocked at more that 3 losses.
    Other over under bets that look nice: under - Browns (will improve but it won't show up in the win colum, too tough a schedule), Bears (overrated) and then over: Packers, New Orleans.
  25. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Come on, man. How spoiled did we get in 03-04?

    When you run past 12 games, I don't care who you are, you're getting lucky sometimes. The "any given Sunday" rule is always in effect. I cannot believe people actually bet on the over-under for wins on the year. And yeah I'd take the over on 10.5, but only because I'm too much of a homer to think straight. It's not that I don't think the Pats are going to win 11. But I would put them right at 11 or 12. Predicting beyond that point is just blind faith in this day and age. Not that there's anything wrong with faith, I just don't want it running my financial plans.

    PFnV
  26. ClosingTime

    ClosingTime Rookie

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    Two things:
    1. I ain't no homer. In fact I hold great disdain (a form of respect) for the Pats. I am a Steelers fan.
    2. The over/under is actually a very good bet if you know how to read it. Assess the teams by last year's w/l and the schedules, personel changes, coaching changes, end of season performance and then try to find the eyesores. These can be the result of big market teams gettting more money in the pool, hype, but the best is when lines are set on apparently no rational reasoning. Last year the BIlls had no business being a 9. Other good bet was the Browns at 4. You really have to try to lose 12 games and not with that coach.
    Look for the warts
  27. the taildragger

    the taildragger Rookie

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    interesting, but vegas odds have nothing to do with the opinions of ESPN ;)

    it's the best thing that could happen to Pitt though...you always want to be the underdog, even while you pretend to hate it. the odds of the steelers repeating are pretty low...just because Dr. Z might think you have to beat the champ to be the champ, vegas would be pretty dumb to install them as favorites FOR THAT REASON ALONE.

    but I'll guarantee one thing: whether we're 3-point favorites over Indy, 8 out of 10 TV pundits will again have us going down in flames -- and that's all that matters to Rodney. Get ready to hear the same old cliches (weak secondary, Manning has too many weapons and his audibles are unstoppable, etc..., and when they lose be ready for all the usual excuses: it's a team game, Manning is only a poor little QB and he can't help it if his offense makes mistakes, or his coach calls the wrong plays for him, and he's basically screwed if his D can't hold a playoff-caliber O to under 17 points because he can't rise to meet that challenge).

    IMO definition of "disrespect": When a team is the consensus favorite in Vegas, but 80% of the pundits still don't give them a chance in hell -- over the past few years, I can't think of another team in that situation more than the Pats.
    Last edited: May 19, 2006

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