NFL Playoffs officially expanded to 14 teams

[Galeb]

Again, you’re not understanding.

It changes the likelihood of one team stringing together multiple championships within a relatively short timeframe. This is because every team requires a little more luck to win than before, rather than just the wild card round teams.

Whereas, the Patriots from 2010-18, with a bye, had roughly a 20-25% chance of winning each year, an extra playoff round reduces that to 15-20% (assuming they’re still the favorite each round.)

In baseball, you used to need to win just one series to win the pennant. Now it’s 3 series and sometimes an additional game too. Look at what’s happened when extra rounds are introduced. Yes, there’s still a winner each year, and yes, that winner is more likely to be random year to year.

You may be correct, but that is a really hard thing to determine. Good luck finding another sport that you can make good comparisons with the NFL. They simply don't exist.

Comparing football to baseball is folly as baseball has a huge variance in money spent by teams, best of 5 and 7 series in the playoffs, and until next year, more than 10x the number of games in a season etc...

I get what you're saying, and my initial reaction was the same, but after looking deeper, it's not as obvious. There is still a team that gets a bye. The entire dynamic of the season was changed. Unless you get the #1 seed, you either tank for draft picks, or cruise and rest guys once you've clinched a playoff spot.

I don't know if it will become harder to maintain success, but what seems totally obvious is that it will lessen the importance of the regular season games in a sport built upon the idea that every game is critical. Something already lessened by adding a 17th.

Whether it is harder to maintain success will always be debatable, but the quality of the product will certainly suffer.

 

[Galeb]

How does removing a bye team not change those odds?

Because 1 out of 32 teams wins every year. That fact hasn't changed.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

You may be correct, but that is a really hard thing to determine. Good luck finding another sport that you can make good comparisons with the NFL. They simply don't exist.

Comparing football to baseball is folly as baseball has a huge variance in money spent by teams, best of 5 and 7 series in the playoffs, and until next year, more than 10x the number of games in a season etc...

I get what you're saying, and my initial reaction was the same, but after looking deeper, it's not as obvious. There is still a team that gets a bye. The entire dynamic of the season was changed. Unless you get the #1 seed, you either tank for draft picks, or cruise and rest guys once you've clinched a playoff spot.

I don't know if it will become harder to maintain success, but what seems totally obvious is that it will lessen the importance of the regular season games in a sport build upon the idea that every game is critical. Something already lessened by adding a 17th.

Whether it is harder to maintain success will always be debatable, but the quality of the product will certainly suffer.

Not debatable.

But yes, the #1 seed does still exist. As I said earlier, the inevitable jump to 8 playoff teams (four rounds for all teams) will be a greater impact.

The Patriots would have needed to win an extra playoff game in 2001, 2004, and 2018, and when there is no bye eventually, you can apply that extra playoff game to all the championship teams. In addition, getting to 13 conference championship games would be virtually impossible needing to win two games each time. Making it to nine Super Bowls, needing to win three postseason games, ditto.

There’s no better way to prevent dynasties in pro sports than adding additional playoff games/series and removing byes. It’s even more of an equalizer than the salary cap.

 

[Galeb]

Not debatable.

But yes, the #1 seed does still exist. As I said earlier, the inevitable jump to 8 playoff teams (four rounds for all teams) will be a greater impact.

The Patriots would have needed to win an extra playoff game in 2001, 2004, and 2018, and when there is no bye eventually, you can apply that extra playoff game to all the championship teams. In addition, getting to 13 conference championship games would be virtually impossible needing to win two games each time. Making it to nine Super Bowls, needing to win three postseason games, ditto.

There’s no better way to prevent dynasties in pro sports than adding additional playoff games/series and removing byes. It’s even more of an equalizer than the salary cap.

Was going to put some effort into giving a detailed response, but why, when someone considers their opinion about something so complex and different than anything that has previously happened as not debatable. It simply isn't worth the time. Your perspective looks very likely when one doesn't look past the surface.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Was going to put some effort into giving a detailed response, but why, when someone considers their opinion about something so complex and different than anything that has previously happened as not debatable. It simply isn't worth the time. Your perspective looks very likely when one doesn't look past the surface.

Ha ha ha! Okay buddy. Way to think outside the box and come to an erroneous conclusion.

There is only one right answer here.

Increasing the number of elimination rounds further randomizes the winner.

The more randomness, the less likely the stronger team (based on probability) is to win any given year.

Hence, the less likely it is that any given team will create a dynasty or win multiple titles in a short timeframe.

It’s math and not an opinion.

 

[XLIX]

They decrease for any given team to win more in a shorter stretch of time though. If you look at MLB, you’ll see that dynasties stopped when the playoffs expanded and more rounds were introduced. This won’t be a major factor but will be a factor for preventing dynasties. If they go with 8 playoff teams - meaning you need to win 4 games for a title - that absolutely will change things.

Baseball dynasties stopped in 1962 when the NY Yankees won their final World Series of that era.

In the aftermath of expanding the playoffs to 8 total teams, the Yankees had a stretch where they won 3 in a row (as well as 4 out of 5). That's as dynastic as anything MLB has seen since 1962.

 

[Galeb]

Ha ha ha! Okay buddy. Way to think outside the box and come to an erroneous conclusion.

There is only one right answer here.

Increasing the number of elimination rounds further randomizes the winner.

The more randomness, the less likely the stronger team (based on probability) is to win any given year.

Hence, the less likely it is that any given team will create a dynasty or win multiple titles in a short timeframe.

It’s math and not an opinion.

The math would certainly prove that... if there wasn't a still a bye.

 

[jah]

I guess I just look at it as more opportunities for teams to make the playoffs, so it gives them more chances at volume stats.. but i guess you're right, its really just 1 more team making it in and still the same number of games

I still hate the rule change tho, "I dont care, I cant stand it!"

Oh yeah, this rule change is definitely trash no matter what it means for the legacy of this dynasty.

 

[jah]

The math would certainly prove that... if there wasn't a still a bye.

For the #2 seed, there isn't still a bye. How are you not grasping this difference?

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

For the #2 seed, there isn't still a bye. How are you not grasping this difference?

He grasps it.

Then he thinks “that’s what the right answer would be if I just stopped at the correct answer” and keeps going.

 

[Galeb]

For the #2 seed, there isn't still a bye. How are you not grasping this difference?

I never said there were two byes in a conference, so the point you're arguing against isn't one I ever made. My point still stands, 1 out of 32 teams will win the suberbowl, and that hasn't changed.

There used to be two advantages earned in each conference that were pretty important. Now there is 1 that is far more valuable. To the team with a bye, the additional playoff team in the conference has no negative effect, while the advantage of another conference foe bye is removed. In other words, the buy now is a far greater advantage than before.

There will be many other significant effects of these changes. This scenario will likely change many teams approach to the season. Coaches on the hot seat will still have to try to win as many games as possible, but for secure coaches, W?L record isn't nearly as important. At the same time, if it looks nearly impossible to get the number 1 seed, many teams will start resting guys if it looks like they're going to make the playoffs.

Although it is likely this will make sustained success in the NFL more difficult most of the time, it may have the effect of making dominating easier for teams if they can consistently win the dramatically more important bye. Such a system favors strong starts. This is a complex game, and it is impossible to predict all of the effects of this new system.

 

[Galeb]

He grasps it.

Then he thinks “that’s what the right answer would be if I just stopped at the correct answer” and keeps going.

Nope. I simply choose to look a little deeper sometimes. You'll be surprised at how often you'll learn you were wrong, or at least that your viewpoint is just an opinion, and that there are other valid viewpoints. It is a necessary skill for creative thought.

 

[jah]

I never said there were two byes in a conference, so the point you're arguing against isn't one I ever made. My point still stands, 1 out of 32 teams will win the suberbowl, and that hasn't changed.

There used to be two advantages earned in each conference that were pretty important. Now there is 1 that is far more valuable. To the team with a bye, the additional playoff team in the conference has no negative effect, while the advantage of another conference foe bye is removed. In other words, the buy now is a far greater advantage than before.

There will be many other significant effects of these changes. This scenario will likely change many teams approach to the season. Coaches on the hot seat will still have to try to win as many games as possible, but for secure coaches, W?L record isn't nearly as important. At the same time, if it looks nearly impossible to get the number 1 seed, many teams will start resting guys if it looks like they're going to make the playoffs.

Although it is likely this will make sustained success in the NFL more difficult most of the time, it may have the effect of making dominating easier for teams if they can consistently win the dramatically more important bye. Such a system favors strong starts. This is a complex game, and it is impossible to predict all of the effects of this new system.

My understanding of the argument you're making is that the first half of the bold sentence carries roughly the same weight as the second half, making it balance out more or less. The issue with this is we pretty much know the second half isn't actually going to be true. The #1 seed has the same advantage it always had going forward: one less round of playoff football to be potentially eliminated in.

If a team were going to dominate by means of being the #1 seed year in and year out, it is neither easier nor harder for them to do it under the new playoff system because they had 3 games to win the Super Bowl either way.

 

[Galeb]

My understanding of the argument you're making is that the first half of the bold sentence carries roughly the same weight as the second half, making it balance out more or less. The issue with this is we pretty much know the second half isn't actually going to be true. The #1 seed has the same advantage it always had going forward: one less round of playoff football to be potentially eliminated in.

If a team were going to dominate by means of being the #1 seed year in and year out, it is neither easier nor harder for them to do it under the new playoff system because they had 3 games to win the Super Bowl either way.

The advantage is, as has already been clearly stated, is that there is no other team in the conference with a bye. The 2nd seed is far more likely to get eliminated, making your path to the superbowl easier. Even if you end up playing the 2nd seed, they didn't get a week off.

Instead of simply trying to argue against a point you don't like, try to understand it first. Even if you don't agree with the conclusion, you can often learn nuance from it after the attempt.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

This will make Brady's playoff records easier for someone to break

At least nobody will touch the one that matters - wins.

I dont think the others will be touched either. Brady made the playoffs every year he's started but 2002. So even if someone were to get in every year somehow they won't reach him.