Long, long-time lurker here (as in years), but first-time post. A few thoughts about the Denver game:
The potential positives:
- Improved pass rush protection. The potential for better pass rush protection against Denver than last time: I thought the Pats' O-line looked really solid against Kansas City, and particularly against the KC pass rush (even without Houston). And it wasn't all attributable to Brady's quick releases -- there were times when he had to stay longer in the pocket, and the protection remained very strong. If they can even approximate that type of performance in Denver, we are in business (but I do worry about Ware and Miller being of a different caliber than what we saw from KC).
- Edelman effect: wow, what a palpable difference maker he is for our offense -- not just for him, but also opening it up for others. It was so noticeable how comfortable Brady looked in the pocket having that reliable, chain-moving outlet. Imagine if the drops are reduced in Denver . . . . (And I nearly had a full cardiac event when I saw the post immediately after the game about Edelman "needing xrays......") And Kansas City was a very good defense.
- General health among players on offense. Overall, our offensive line and skill players look about as together as they have been for the past few months.
- Strength of Game plan: spread the defense, pass, and forget about the run. Normally I get a bit irritated at how quickly Josh abandons the run and how one-dimensional and predictable we can get as an offense, particularly against a great pass rushing team that can tee off on the rush on every snap. But Saturday it obviously worked and it might just be effective against Denver -- although they feel like a different caliber pass rushing team and obviously run a different scheme, both KC and Denver share the general features of being strong pass rushing defense with very solid corner play. In theory, a similar game plan might be effective in Denver. Maybe mix in some draws or other misdirection, late-developing runs that take advantage of the Miller and others getting so far upfield on the edges? In any event, to some extent, maybe we are better off acknowledging that we simply cannot run effectively against Denver's front, and eliminate the Jackson 1-2 yard plays until later in the game, when the defense may be more gassed? Not ideal, but I think a "balanced" game plan actually does not play to our advantage here.
- Denver's offense looks weak. There was a sharp contrast between how crisp New England's offense mostly looked against a superior defense, like KC, and how shaky Denver's offense looked against a mediocre passing defense, like Pittsburgh. I still wouldn't discount Manning and some of his passing weapons, plus that zone running scheme that seems to give us fits (Shazier was a stud on the cutback lanes last night). But I think our defense matches us as well against what I saw last night (assuming Collins is back).
- Chris Harris may be limited. That could be huge for us.
The potential negatives:
- Denver pass rush. Yeah, I know they were largely absent last night, but they sure showed up in some choice moments. Moreover, Pittsburgh effectively ran the ball and was less one-dimensional than we are likely to be. Although hopeful after seeing what our line did against KC, this still remains my number one concern going into this game - Miller and Ware can wreck games single-handedly.
- Denver corners and press-man coverage. For some reason, KC gave big cushions to our receivers off the line. I don't see Denver repeating that mistake. I see them in heavy man, press coverage to disrupt that 2-second Brady release and give that extra second for the pass rush to get there. If Harris can go, they certainly have the cornerback quality to play very tight coverage and get a good pass rush from front-four.
- Our injuries. We need Collins back, simple as that. I would take him over Chandler in a heartbeat - pass rush is overrated against Manning. Coverage and disrupting timing are more important, and Collins is the key cog for disrupting all the shallow crossing routes / running back outlet stuff that is Manning's bread and butter. Shut off the middle of the field, and we get into wobbly, watermelon throws to the outside.
- Stopping the zone runs. Again, goes back to Collins, although Mayo is good for this as well. Need to keep them in 3rd and longs -- they looked terrible executing 3rd down pass plays yesterday against a relatively medicore pass defense.
So, at the end of the road, I think it's a tight game, 24-21 -ish, with Patriots prevailing. I think Denver's defense is just too stout to allow for a blow-out. The difference maker is whether we can defend the way Pittsburgh did yesterday -- if we can, I definitely see us outscoring Denver's offense.
Ian Rapoport ✔ @RapSheet
