Measuring Power and Explosion

[Snake Eyes]

Adding raw BP numbers makes this all sort of archaic.

Players with short arms should never benefit.

Why not? If they have a mechanical advantage when pushing a barbell will they not having it when pushing a human?

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo, hope you don't mind if I add this to your thread: I ran my annual "Pass-Rushing DE/OLB Physical Freak" screen, which emphasizes explosiveness:

Four players squeaked through, most under the * exception:

Jadeveon Clowney
James Gayle
Khalil Mack
Kareem Martin

(For current Patriots, Jamie Collins totally blew away all those benchmarks EXCEPT length and upper-body strength, while Chandler Jones only missed the 10-yd split target. That presumably speaks to their respective roles.)

Off the top of my head, I were to try and come up with something like this for a DT, it would look something like this:

300#+ weight
30" vertical or more - suggests explosiveness
8 1/2' broad jump or more - suggests explosiveness
1.75 10 yard split or better - suggests quickness
30+ reps@225 - crudest metric of upper body power, even though it's a poor one
* Meets all but one criteria, but excels at 1 or more

Using that metric, I come up with the following guys who qualify as elite explosive DT prospects:

- Ra'Shede Hageman (2014): 311#, 1.75 10-split, 35" VJ, 9'6" VJ, 32 BP.
- Aaron Donald* (2011): 285#, 1.59 10-split, 32" VJ, 9' 8" broad jump, 35 BP.
- Linval Joseph (2010):328#, 1.75 10-split, 31.5" VJ, 8' 6" BJ, 39 BP.
- Ndamukong Suh (2010): 307#, 1.69 10-split, 35.5" VJ, 8'9" BJ, 32 BP.
- Geno Atkins* (2010): 293#, 1.68 10-split, 33" VJ, 9'8" BJ, 34 BP.
- Haloti Ngata (2006): 338#, 1.73 10-split, 31.5 VJ, 9'2" BJ, 37 BP.
- JJ Watt* (2011): 290#, 1.64 10-split, 37" VJ, 10' BJ, 34 BP.
- Dontari Poe* (2012): 346#, 1.67 10-split, 29.5" VJ, 8'9" BJ, 44 BP. Given that Poe weighed 346#, I think I can make an exception for being 1/2" short of my broad jump cutoff.
- Lamarr Houston (2010): 305#, 1.68 10-split, 33.5" VJ, 9'6" BJ, 30 BP.
- BJ Raji (2009): 337#, 1.69 10-split, 32" VJ, 8'7" BJ, 33 BP.

Guys who missed the cutoff:

- Fletcher Cox: 26" vertical at 298#.
- Michael Brockers: 1.78 10-split lowered to 1.73 at his pro day; 26.5" VJ raised to 30" at his pro day; 21 BP.
- Nick Fairley: no BP result reported for either the Combine or his Pro Day. Barely made the 30" VJ cutoff at 291#.
- Marcel Dareus: 27" VJ, 24 BP.
- Kevin Williams: 23 BP.
- Glenn Dorsey: 297#, barely made 10-split (1.74); missed on VJ (25.5"), BJ (8'4") and BP (27).
- Sedrick Ellis: 26.5" vertical.

Of interest:

- Armond Armstead (2012 pro day): 290#, 30" VJ, 9'10" BJ. BP and 10-split not reported, but the other numbers of very suggestive, especially the broad jump.
- I can't find a 10-split number of Vince Wilfork. His vertical was 26.5" at 323#.

 

[patchick]

Is there a reason Trent Murphy isn't on this list? He squeezed through on the 10 yd split and missed your BR target by one but hit on everything else.

And I like this metric a lot.

Murphy was the closest miss -- he only missed one target, but he also was only exceptional on one measure (3-cone). I do like him a lot.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Perhaps taking into account the average length for a person of a particular height you add or subtract from the BP a certain amount of reps for every quarter of an inch over or under.

I'm making this up but lets say the average for somebody 6'4" is 34 inches if they have 33 3/4 then you deducts 2 reps and 34 1/4 you add two reps, etc.

That would help. You could also multiply arm length by BP, then divide by the average number of both arm length and BP. That would adjust for both the short armed guys with high BP numbers and the long armed guys with low BP numbers.

I would guess most players have longer arms than BP numbers so maybe arm length * .80 would be best.

If I use 30 as the average number;
Watt: 85.53
Poe: 85.18

Why not? If they have a mechanical advantage when pushing a barbell will they not having it when pushing a human?

Because a barbell doesn't have longer arms pushing back.

 

[Snake Eyes]

Because a barbell doesn't have longer arms pushing back.

Then how is it possible that Aaron Donald, with his 32 5/8 inch arms, could completely own Cyril Richardson like he did at the Senior Bowl, with his 34 5/8 inch arms?

 

[patchick]

Off the top of my head, I were to try and come up with something like this for a DT, it would look something like this:

300#+ weight
30" vertical or more - suggests explosiveness
8 1/2' broad jump or more - suggests explosiveness
1.75 10 yard split or better - suggests quickness
30+ reps@225 - crudest metric of upper body power, even though it's a poor one
* Meets all but one criteria, but excels at 1 or more

Good stuff. It would be great if they moved to a different test for upper body strength, but we have to go with the numbers available. It's a particular problem for a position like OT where there's such a premium on long arms. (It's also a problem that arm length is spottily reported!)

Not to veer too far off course, but for an OT physical freak screen I'd be tempted to list VJ twice -- non-negotiable.

 

[mayoclinic]

Good stuff. It would be great if they moved to a different test for upper body strength, but we have to go with the numbers available. It's a particular problem for a position like OT where there's such a premium on long arms. (It's also a problem that arm length is spottily reported!)

Not to veer too far off course, but for an OT physical freak screen I'd be tempted to list VJ twice -- non-negotiable.

As always, measurables aren't everything. You can have elite athleticism and not have the rest of the package. For example:

- Marvin Austin (2011): 309#, 1.63 10-split, 30.5" VJ, 9'4" BJ, 38 BP.

Didn't seem to help much. :ugh:

 

[mayoclinic]

Not to veer too far off course, but for an OT physical freak screen I'd be tempted to list VJ twice -- non-negotiable.

The highest recorded VJ for an OL at the Combine since 2006 is 35". Of course, they didn't invite Sebastian Vollmer, who jumped 36.5" at his Pro Day in 2009. Remarkable.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Then how is it possible that Aaron Donald, with his 32 5/8 inch arms, could completely own Cyril Richardson like he did at the Senior Bowl, with his 34 5/8 inch arms?

Leverage, talent, and a number of other things.

edit. The short man tends to win in the trenches. Find me a tall guy with short arms that's good inside, and I'll find you 10 guys that are either short, or have long arms that are good inside.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

That would help. You could also multiply arm length by BP, then divide by the average number of both arm length and BP. That would adjust for both the short armed guys with high BP numbers and the long armed guys with low BP numbers.

I would guess most players have longer arms than BP numbers so maybe arm length * .80 would be best.

If I use 30 as the average number;
Watt: 85.53
Poe: 85.18

Okung: 88.11
Suh: 79.98
Chandler Jones: 71.03
Gronk: 69.67
Graham: 66
Solder: 65.84

 

[mayoclinic]

Okung: 88.11
Suh: 79.98
Chandler Jones: 71.03
Gronk: 69.67
Graham: 66
Solder: 65.84

I'm not quite sure what your proposed formula is, and exactly why you picked those specific numbers. Can you clarify?

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

I'm not quite sure what your proposed formula is, and exactly why you picked those specific numbers. Can you clarify?

I factored in arm length as well as BP to adjust for players with short arms or low BPs. Then I divided by 30 in attempt to make it relatable to "But generally, a score > 70 is exceptional for a defensive player. Over 65 is excellent."

Formula would be AL*BP/30 + VJ + BJ = Explosiveness

 

[mayoclinic]

I factored in arm length as well as BP to adjust for players with short arms or low BPs. Then I divided by 30 in attempt to make it relatable to "But generally, a score > 70 is exceptional for a defensive player. Over 65 is excellent."

Formula would be AL*BP/30 + VJ + BJ = Explosiveness

Why did you pick 30? Did that number just happen to work, or does it have some particular meaning as a reference value? You mentioned something about "average arm length" in your first post, but the only player out of the DL/LB/TE/OL prospects to have an arm length < 30" was Chris Borland. Also, you mentioned a factor of 0.8 in your first post, which confused me.

I apologize if I'm making this unnecessarily complicated.

 

[Kontradiction]

Max Bullough scores a 70 with this metric as a MLB. Has a good pedigree (grandson of Hank), three year starter, ran the defense for arguably the top unit in the country, high football ntelligence, big (6'3'', 250#). In terms of negatives there are some character concerns, he was suspended for a still unknown reason for the Rose Bowl (although he had no problems up until that point and has said he alerted the teams). A couple concerns that he was playing too heavy this year because his production was down but that defense was loaded, lots of play makers were all over the field.

Just someone a keep an eye on. I'm happy with Mayo but he does have injury concerns, and watching Hightower try to take over Mayo's role makes me cringe. Plus with the whole Rose Bowl incident Bullough's stock has really dropped.

If they're trying to continue the whole "athlete" theme at the LB position, Bullough may not be an option even as a value pick. Don't get me wrong, he's an excellent prospect and he was solid on an otherwise stacked Michigan State defense, but as an athlete he's average at best.

 

[Kontradiction]

Ronald Powell (yeah I know, another Florida boy) measures at a 66 based on this. Nothing eye popping, but he measures around Chandler Jones/Lavonte David territory. He ran a 4.65 40 and is athletic. His main issues have been his attitude which may be able to be adjusted in New England. Could be someone to watch on Day 3.

Keeping with LB's, Jordan Tripp measures out at a 70 using this. Reading his draft bio, he sounds like a Patriot. Both guys need work but they're the two that caught my attention at LB later on in the draft using this metric.

 

[mayoclinic]

Tony Villiota does a ridiculously complicated analysis of the defensive front 7 prospects' Combine numbers.

2014 Combine performance: Defensive front seven | National Football Post

The 3 things that stand's out the most to me:

- Kevin Pierre-Louis' 40 time, vertical, broad jump and short shuttle were in the top 10% of all DE/OLB Combine participants (including DE's < 265#) since 1999. His other two scores, his 3-cone and bench press, were in the top 20%.

- Aaron Donald's 40 time, 3-cone and bench press were in the top 10% for all defensive tackles/big DEs (> 265#) at the Combine since 1999, and his broad jump was in the top 20%.

- Louis Nix basically tested in the bottom 10% the 4 Combine activities he participated in compared to DTs/big DEs since 1999: 40, broad jump, vertical and 3-cone (he didn't participate in the bench press).

 

[Snake Eyes]

Leverage, talent, and a number of other things.

edit. The short man tends to win in the trenches. Find me a tall guy with short arms that's good inside, and I'll find you 10 guys that are either short, or have long arms that are good inside.

Tall guys don't tend to have short arms which kinda skews the comparison by default.

'Leverage, talent, and other things' is a bit broad. While they don't measure it I think the initial burst off the line is absolutely critical, check out Donald v. Richardson.

https://i.imgflip.com/69yxi.gif

Donald is ready to engage long before Richardson is, that battle was pretty much over before actual contact was made. I think a few steps back should be taken when thinking about explosion and power.

How quick are their hands? Long arms don't help much if the other guy gets their first.
Do they have good hand placement with that speed?
Do they have good structural alignment?
How is their muscular coordination? Can they create a strong kinetic chain from their feet through their legs to their core and through their upper body?

Can they do that while adjusting to different angles? While in different body position as they both move?

That's just scratching the surface, but it would fall within 'talent'.

All that said, I hate using the bench press as a metric. Training for endurance, and really cranking out a bunch of reps is exactly that, is the exact opposite of what they're doing on the field, which is just pushing like hell for a few seconds. Endurance training actually makes you worse at the explosive activity.

Straight "endurance" isn't useful for football, the ability for sustained explosiveness is what's key. If you wanted to get a pure measure of explosiveness you'd have them squat in a 2 foot rectangle with a 100lb medicine ball and have them throw it as far as they can, and time it.

That's another reason the vertical jump has less usefulness than I'd like is only takes into account the last portion but not the initial stretch or the compression, and it doesn't factor in time. On the field they're not going to have the luxury of that space and time, short area explosiveness is what you're really after and they really don't test for it.

So, unless you're accounting for those things I think there are going to be holes in the data. Kirwan's formula is a good place to start but a very bad place to finish, just my opinion.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Why did you pick 30? Did that number just happen to work, or does it have some particular meaning as a reference value? You mentioned something about "average arm length" in your first post, but the only player out of the DL/LB/TE/OL prospects to have an arm length < 30" was Chris Borland. Also, you mentioned a factor of 0.8 in your first post, which confused me.

I apologize if I'm making this unnecessarily complicated.

No I'm doing a poor job explaining it.

I'm just trying to quickly fix an obvious flaw in Kirwin's formula -- that short armed players have an advantage. I factored in arm length to adjust for that.

I picked 30 because I've noticed arm length in inches and bench press numbers tend to both be around 30. That's why I picked the number. It's just a rough estimate. If I wanted to figure out the actual average, I could, but I suspect it wouldn't be too far from 30. Probably lower if we're counting DBs and WRs.

I thought about using 0.8 but didn't. 0.8 would have been another estimate to make things more even. I considered doing it because I think the average arm length is a higher number than the average BP. 0.8 would have decreased the arm lengths impact on the formula by 20%.

But in addition to confusing everyone, I think I accomplished my goal. In Kirwin's formula Poe has a 2 point advantage over Watt. In mine Watt has a .3 point advantage over Poe.

 

[mayoclinic]

From Pat Kirwan today on NFL.com, FWIW:

If you were wondering what to make of the measurable statistics attached to combine players, you are not alone. One simple thing, which I've done for 25 years, is search look for explosiveness.

When the ball is snapped in the NFL, at least half the players on the field collide and the more explosive player wins the battle.

Take the vertical leap, the standing broad jump and the bench press numbers and add them up. The key is to find players that can reach or surpass the 70 for a combined total. For example, Aaron Donald had a 75, Kalil Mack had a 73 and running back Bishop Sankey had a 71. Those numbers don't always add up to a great football player, but it is a start.

2014 NFL Draft: What comes next for clubs after combine? - CBSSports.com

 

[mayoclinic]

FWIW, Ra'Shede Hageman is the only DL I have been able to find weighting 300# or more with a VJ or 35" or greater and a BJ of 9'5" or greater (very nearly 9 1/2 ft.). Mario Williams and JJ Watt did it easily, but they were in the 290-295# range. Oklahoma OT Donald Stephenson (drafted by KC in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft) also did it.