Measuring Power and Explosion

[mayoclinic]

Pat Kirwan published a couple of articles on NFL.com in 2005 which have had a lot of influence on analyzing prospect measurables. One had to do with the relationship between speed and quickness, which I'll discuss separately. The other had to do with measuring power and explosion. The original online article can't be found on NFL.com, but it has been reproduced elsewhere in many places. Here's one link for reference:

THE HUDDLE REPORT - NFL DRAFT

Kirwan's basic argument is that any one metric doesn't measure the whole story, and he uses the combination of Vertical Jump + Broad Jump + Bench Press (all rounded down) to get a sense of how explosive a prospect is:

Explosion = VJ + BJ + BP

It's not a perfect metric, but it gives some general idea of overall "explosiveness". Kirwan filters out buys who are extremely skewed (e.g., 45+ reps on the bench press and lousy vertical and broad jump numbers). But generally, a score > 70 is exceptional for a defensive player. Over 65 is excellent.

Some recent standouts in the NFL and their scores:

Mario Williams: 35 BP + 40 VJ + 10 BJ = 85
JJ Watt: 34 BP + 37 VJ + 10 BJ = 81
Haloti Ngata: 37 BP + 31 VJ + 9 BJ = 77
Sebastian Vollmer (pro day): 32 BP + 36 VJ + 9 BJ = 77
Geno Atkins: 34 BP + 33 BJ + 9 BJ = 76
Ndamukong Suh: 32 BJ + 35 VJ + 8 BJ = 75
DeMarcus Ware: 27 BP + 38 VJ + 10 BJ = 75
Luke Kuechly: 27 BP + 38 VJ + 10 BJ = 75
Jake Long: 37 BP + 27 VJ + 8 BJ = 72
Aaron Hernandez (pro day): 30 BP + 33 VJ + 9 BJ = 72
Vince Wilfork (pro day): 36 BP + 26 VJ + 8 BJ = 72
Lane Johnson: 28 BP + 34 VJ + 9 BJ = 71
Sheldon Richardson: 30 BP + 32 VJ + 9 BP = 71
Jamie Collins: 19 BP + 41 VJ + 11 BJ = 71 (could be elite if he got stronger)
Joe Thomas: 28 BP + 33 VJ + 9 BJ = 70
Jordan Cameron: 23 BP + 37 VJ + 9 BJ = 69
Von Miller: 21 BP + 37 VJ + 10 BJ = 68
Chandler Jones: 22 BP + 35 VJ + 10 BP = 67
Rob Gronkowski (including pro day): 23 BP + 33 VJ + 9 BJ = 65
Ziggy Ansah: 21 BP + 34 VJ + 9 BJ = 64
Lavonte David: 19 BP + 36 VJ + 9 BJ = 64
Jimmy Graham (including pro day): 15 BP + 38 VJ + 10 BJ = 63 - needed to get stronger
Nate Solder: 21 BP + 32 VJ + 9 BJ = 62

Dontari Poe had the second highest score (83) but that was skewed by 44 reps on the bench press. But even if you score him in the 30's on the BP he was elite.

Some of the scores for prospects from the 2014 Combine:

Ryan Shazier: 25 BP + 42 VJ + 10 NJ = 77
Kevin Pierre-Louis: 28 BP + 39 VJ + 10 BJ = 77
Aaron Donald: 35 BP + 32VJ + 9 BJ = 76
Ra'Shede Hageman: 32 BP + 35 VJ + 9 BJ = 76
Chris Smith: 28 BP + 37 VJ + 10 BJ = 75
Khalil Mack: 23 BP + 40 VJ 10 BJ = 73
Brandon Thomas: 35 BP + 29 VJ + 8 BJ = 72
Carl Bradford: 23 BP + 37 VJ + 10 BJ = 70
Jame Amaro: 28 BP + 33 VJ + 9 BJ = 70
Greg Robinson: 32 BP + 28 VJ + 9 BJ = 69
Jadeveon Clowney: 21 B P + 37 VJ + 10 BJ = 68
Troy Niklas: 27 BP + 32 VJ + 9 BJ = 68
Marcel Jenson: 24 BP + 35 VJ + 9 BJ = 68
Marcus Smith: 23 BP + 35 VJ + 10 BJ = 68
Gabe Jackson: 30 BP + 29 VJ + 9 BJ = 68
Taylor Lewan: 29 BP + 30 VJ + 9 BJ = 68
Tyler Larsen: 36 BP + 23 BJ + 9 = 67
Jake Murphy: 24 BP + 33 VJ + 9 BJ = 66
Arthur Lynch: 28 BP + 29 VJ + 9 BJ = 66
CJ Fiedorowicz: 25 BP + 31 VJ + 9 BJ = 65
Ronald Powell: 21 BP + 35 VJ + 9 BJ = 65
Tyler Starr: 24 BP + 32 VJ + 9 BJ = 65
Tim Jernigan: 27 BP + 29 VJ + 8 BJ = 64
AC Leonard: 20 BP + 34 VJ + 10 BJ = 64
Colt Lyerla: 15 BP + 39 VJ + 10 BJ = 64; needs to get stronger
Joel Bitonio: 22 BP + 32 VJ + 9 BJ = 63
Trent Murphy: 19 BP + 35 VJ + 9 BJ = 63
Larry Webster: 17 BP + 36 VJ + 10 BJ = 63; if he could get stronger he could be elite
Kyle Van Noy: 21 BP + 32 VJ + 9 BJ = 62
Jake Matthews: 24 BP + 30 VJ + 8 BJ = 62
Billy Turner: 25 BP + 28 VJ + 9 BJ = 62

Food for thought.

 

[TriplecHamp]

Considering how useless the bench press is as both a measure of power and conditioning, Id like to see what these numbers would look like with just the broad/vert measurements. Some names are where they should be (Shazier, Pierre-Louis, Donald, Mack etc.) But other guys are supremely underrated because of the BP (Lyerla is more explosive than Amaro, Niklas, Fiedor, Alot of the offensive lineman are rated more explosive than guys who simply aren't as good of benchers). As for as pure power, I wish the combine would have these guys max on a few OLY lifts.

 

[mayoclinic]

Some initial thoughts:

1. Kevin Pierre-Louis a big surprise at the top of the list with Ryan Shazier. Plus he has great agility numbers.

2. Aaron Donald and Ra'Shede Hageman both have elite explosiveness.

3. Jamie Collins will be a true freak if he gets stronger (which he seems to be doing).

4. Larry Webster could be a freakish TE conversion if he gets stronger.

5. Jace Amaro has darn fine numbers. Need to re-look at him. The TEs do quite well in terms of explosiveness - Niklas, Jensen, Lynch and Murphy all grade well.

6. Greg Robinson has elite OL numbers, but Brandon Thomas is a big surprise.

7. Tyler Larsen is surprisingly explosive. Need to re-look at him.

8. Chris Smith is surprsingly explosive, too. Not very agile, though.

9. Carl Bradford is someone else to take another look at.

10. Chandler Jones (67) grades out much better than guys like Aldon Smith (63) and Jason Pierre-Paul (58).

11. JJ Watt is a freak.

 

[mayoclinic]

Considering how useless the bench press is as both a measure of power and conditioning, Id like to see what these numbers would look like with just the broad/vert measurements. Some names are where they should be (Shazier, Pierre-Louis, Donald, Mack etc.) But other guys are supremely underrated because of the BP (Lyerla is more explosive than Amaro, Niklas, Fiedor, Alot of the offensive lineman are rated more explosive than guys who simply aren't as good of benchers). As for as pure power, I wish the combine would have these guys max on a few OLY lifts.

Looking at just those two numbers, Jamie Collins and Ryan Shazier have the highest total (52) of any DL/LB/OL/TE that I've seen.

I think you need some metric for upper body strength, as well. You can have lower body explosion, but without upper body power you'll get pushed around. Guys like Lyerla and Larry Webster (and Collins) have the physical tools to be dominant if the were to get stronger.

 

[everlong]

You could get really crazy and see how long they can hold a plank or crane for.

Part of the bench press not unlike other parts of the combine are form. Guys who ran track in high school will put up naturally better 40's because they have the form at the start down cold. Back in my early 20's friends and I tried to build up how many times we could do 225 as part of our combine obsession. At 187 when we started I did it 17 times. Six weeks later I could do it 26 times. I didn't feel I was any stronger or fit. I just felt like I had improved my technique and my body had adapted to doing that specific weight as many times as it could. I wish we had done a max before and after to see if that increase but my perception is if it did it would have been minescule compared to going from 17 to 26 reps.

 

[Brady6]

Some initial thoughts:

1. Kevin Pierre-Louis a big surprise at the top of the list with Ryan Shazier. Plus he has great agility numbers.

2. Aaron Donald and Ra'Shede Hageman both have elite explosiveness.

3. Jamie Collins will be a true freak if he gets stronger (which he seems to be doing).

4. Larry Webster could be a freakish TE conversion if he gets stronger.

5. Jace Amaro has darn fine numbers. Need to re-look at him. The TEs do quite well in terms of explosiveness - Niklas, Jensen, Lynch and Murphy all grade well.

6. Greg Robinson has elite OL numbers, but Brandon Thomas is a big surprise.

7. Tyler Larsen is surprisingly explosive. Need to re-look at him.

8. Chris Smith is surprsingly explosive, too. Not very agile, though.

9. Carl Bradford is someone else to take another look at.

10. Chandler Jones (67) grades out much better than guys like Aldon Smith (63) and Jason Pierre-Paul (58).

11. JJ Watt is a freak.

I would have like to seen Jon Don Duncan run; I am very high on him as a day three selection. He put up 35 on the bench, he is a solid 6’3 268lbs, and he has huge hands at 10 1/2”.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3INHkAFZxw

 

[GIF Man]

I just want to point out this metric is pretty flawed in regards to the Bench Press. If you're familiar with weight lifting at all, large volume exercises point to endurance. A better measure of strength or explosion in weight lifting is high weight in short bursts (low reps). High weight Deadlifts or Squats would be much better to track in that regard. 225 seems like a lot for the general population but it really isn't for an intermediate lifter or semi / professional athlete like a football player.

 

[mayoclinic]

I just want to point out this metric is pretty flawed in regards to the Bench Press. If you're familiar with weight lifting at all, large volume exercises point to endurance. A better measure of strength or explosion in weight lifting is high weight in short bursts (low reps). High weight Deadlifts or Squats would be much better to track in that regard.

I completely agree. I said it's "not perfect". But it's a start, using the standard Combine metrics, which are very imprecise to begin with.

I do think endurance is important. The ability to sustain explosiveness is as important as having basic explosiveness to begin with. But your point is well taken.

 

[GIF Man]

I completely agree. I said it's "not perfect". But it's a start, using the standard Combine metrics, which are very imprecise to begin with.

I do think endurance is important. The ability to sustain explosiveness is as important as having basic explosiveness to begin with. But your point is well taken.

Yup, no problem, I wasn't trying to bash the thread at all. I enjoy reading these things. I just have some experience in lifting so I thought I'd point that out.

 

[manxman2601]

Some initial thoughts:

1. Kevin Pierre-Louis a big surprise at the top of the list with Ryan Shazier. Plus he has great agility numbers.

2. Aaron Donald and Ra'Shede Hageman both have elite explosiveness.

3. Jamie Collins will be a true freak if he gets stronger (which he seems to be doing).

4. Larry Webster could be a freakish TE conversion if he gets stronger.

5. Jace Amaro has darn fine numbers. Need to re-look at him. The TEs do quite well in terms of explosiveness - Niklas, Jensen, Lynch and Murphy all grade well.

6. Greg Robinson has elite OL numbers, but Brandon Thomas is a big surprise.

7. Tyler Larsen is surprisingly explosive. Need to re-look at him.

8. Chris Smith is surprsingly explosive, too. Not very agile, though.

9. Carl Bradford is someone else to take another look at.

10. Chandler Jones (67) grades out much better than guys like Aldon Smith (63) and Jason Pierre-Paul (58).

11. JJ Watt is a freak.

Although it's only one game, if you watch the KPL game on Draft breakdown, not a surprise at all. His explosion really stands out. I am however surprised at Hageman. I was a little disappointed by his combine but it was better than I realised.

 

[GIF Man]

Max Bullough scores a 70 with this metric as a MLB. Has a good pedigree (grandson of Hank), three year starter, ran the defense for arguably the top unit in the country, high football ntelligence, big (6'3'', 250#). In terms of negatives there are some character concerns, he was suspended for a still unknown reason for the Rose Bowl (although he had no problems up until that point and has said he alerted the teams). A couple concerns that he was playing too heavy this year because his production was down but that defense was loaded, lots of play makers were all over the field.

Just someone a keep an eye on. I'm happy with Mayo but he does have injury concerns, and watching Hightower try to take over Mayo's role makes me cringe. Plus with the whole Rose Bowl incident Bullough's stock has really dropped.

 

[mayoclinic]

I am however surprised at Hageman. I was a little disappointed by his combine but it was better than I realised.

If you look at the numbers of the guys who have been "dominant" DTs since 2004, both Hageman and Donald are right in the mix:

- Dontari Poe: 83 (pushed to the high side by his bench press, but elite no matter how you cut it)
- JJ Watt: 81
- Haloti Ngata: 77
- Geno Atkins: 76
- Ndamukong Suh: 75
- Vince Wilfork: 72

I can't find numbers for Richard Seymour. Justin Smith had a 69 as a 267# DE coming out in 2001.

Also of interest, for some of the potential 2014 FA prospects:

- DE Michael Johnson: 28 BP + 38 VJ + 10 BJ = 76.
- DT Linval Joseph: 39 BP + 30 VJ + 8 BJ = 77. Even slightly discounted for strength, it's in the ballpark. I've always felt Joseph had the potential to be a dominant DT.

 

[stelfans]

Very nice indeed.

Two guys i really like:
Zach Kerr: 66
Chris Borland: 69

No freaks by any means but certainly a metric very useful. It will be very interesting to get back to this in a year.

 

[kennyb]

Very nice indeed.

Two guys i really like:
Zach Kerr: 66
Chris Borland: 69

No freaks by any means but certainly a metric very useful. It will be very interesting to get back to this in a year.

Puts a lot of "weight" to the vertical and BP but not much to teh long jump. A good BP or vertical is 4x what a good long jump is.

 

[patchick]

Mayo, hope you don't mind if I add this to your thread: I ran my annual "Pass-Rushing DE/OLB Physical Freak" screen, which emphasizes explosiveness:

Length (6'4"+) /Strength (20+ reps)/Explosiveness (VJ 35"+, BJ 09'06"+, 10-yd split 1.65-)/Quickness (3-cone 7.25-). *A modest miss on one subscore was ok IF the player significantly overperformed on most others.
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...954832-pass-rushers-myth-workout-warrior.html

Four players squeaked through, most under the * exception:

Jadeveon Clowney
James Gayle
Khalil Mack
Kareem Martin

(For current Patriots, Jamie Collins totally blew away all those benchmarks EXCEPT length and upper-body strength, while Chandler Jones only missed the 10-yd split target. That presumably speaks to their respective roles.)

 

[mayoclinic]

Very nice indeed.

Two guys i really like:
Zach Kerr: 66
Chris Borland: 69

No freaks by any means but certainly a metric very useful. It will be very interesting to get back to this in a year.

I don't put too much stock in a metric, but I think it's a quick way of checking if the numbers are consistent with the "eye test": when I see a guy who looks explosive or powerful to me, are the crude numbers consistent with it, and vice-versa?

Some numbers on the Pats' roster of note:

- DT Chris Jones (pro day + Combine): 30 BP + 31 VS + 8' BJ = 69. Pretty strong numbers, confirming my impression that he has a bit of explosiveness.
- DT Sealver Siliga: 29 BP + 29 VJ = 8 BJ = 66. Consistent with my impression that he's pretty powerful and has a bit of pop to his game.
- DT Marcus Forston: 37 BP + 28 VJ + 8 BJ = 73. I don't see that kind of explosiveness from him at all. The VJ is under 30 and the BJ under 9, so I'm guessing this is skewed by endurance on the BP.
- DT Joe Vellano (pro day): 27 BP + 27 VJ + 7 BJ = 61. Consistent with my impression that he's not particularly explosive.

- WR Mark Harrison: 17 BP + 38 VJ + 10 BJ = 65. Needs to get stronger, plus the BP number is affected by his 35" arms. Is consistent what what I see: a guy who is explosive enough (and fast and agile enough, with a 4.37 40 and 6.99 3-cone) to be a good move TE if he gets a bit stronger.

 

[mayoclinic]

Mayo, hope you don't mind if I add this to your thread: I ran my annual "Pass-Rushing DE/OLB Physical Freak" screen, which emphasizes explosiveness:

Four players squeaked through, most under the * exception:

Jadeveon Clowney
James Gayle
Khalil Mack
Kareem Martin

(For current Patriots, Jamie Collins totally blew away all those benchmarks EXCEPT length and upper-body strength, while Chandler Jones only missed the 10-yd split target. That presumably speaks to their respective roles.)

Honored to have your input!

 

[manxman2601]

Mayo, hope you don't mind if I add this to your thread: I ran my annual "Pass-Rushing DE/OLB Physical Freak" screen, which emphasizes explosiveness:




Four players squeaked through, most under the * exception:

Jadeveon Clowney
James Gayle
Khalil Mack
Kareem Martin

(For current Patriots, Jamie Collins totally blew away all those benchmarks EXCEPT length and upper-body strength, while Chandler Jones only missed the 10-yd split target. That presumably speaks to their respective roles.)

Is there a reason Trent Murphy isn't on this list? He squeezed through on the 10 yd split and missed your BR target by one but hit on everything else.

And I like this metric a lot.

 

[Merril Hoge's Tie Knot]

Adding raw BP numbers makes this all sort of archaic.

Players with short arms should never benefit.

 

[everlong]

Adding raw BP numbers makes this all sort of archaic.

Players with short arms should never benefit.

Perhaps taking into account the average length for a person of a particular height you add or subtract from the BP a certain amount of reps for every quarter of an inch over or under.

I'm making this up but lets say the average for somebody 6'4" is 34 inches if they have 33 3/4 then you deducts 2 reps and 34 1/4 you add two reps, etc.