Measuring Power and Explosion

[manxman2601]

FWIW, Ra'Shede Hageman is the only DL I have been able to find weighting 300# or more with a VJ or 35" or greater and a BJ of 9'5" or greater (very nearly 9 1/2 ft.). Mario Williams and JJ Watt did it easily, but they were in the 290-295# range. Oklahoma OT Donald Stephenson (drafted by KC in the 3rd round of the 2012 draft) also did it.

It puts ahead of some elite company. There are some busts that have got near to these marks, but those VJ + BJGE numbers put him in Gerald McCoy, Sheldon Richardson, Geno Atkins, Lamarr Houston, Ndamukong Suh territory (better than all at both).

 

[mayoclinic]

Todd McShay has dropped Anthony Barr all the way to 28 on his latest top-32 rankings, noting:

He proved with his combine performance that he is a really good, fast athlete, running a 4.66 40 and doing well in the three-cone short-shuttle drills. He was just OK in the jumps that measure lower-half explosiveness, which matches up with the biggest issue I see from him on tape: He hasn't shown a lot of explosiveness or finishing ability. He was very productive at UCLA, however, and has the potential to get better.

Barr had elite movement skills for a 6' 4 7/8" 255# LB (17.23 mobility score, getting close to DeMarcus Ware territory). But his explosiveness score was a paltry 58, partly because of a poor bench press (15 reps); but his vertical jump of 34.5" and broad jump of 9'11" were much poorer than Khalil Mack's (40" VJ and 10'8" BJ), not to mention vastly inferior to Jamie Collins' numbers from last year.

 

[manxman2601]

Todd McShay has dropped Anthony Barr all the way to 28 on his latest top-32 rankings, noting:



Barr had elite movement skills for a 6' 4 7/8" 255# LB (17.23 mobility score, getting close to DeMarcus Ware territory). But his explosiveness score was a paltry 58, partly because of a poor bench press (15 reps); but his vertical jump of 34.5" and broad jump of 9'11" were much poorer than Khalil Mack's (40" VJ and 10'8" BJ), not to mention vastly inferior to Jamie Collins' numbers from last year.

I could just about live with Barr at #29 but the prospect doesn't thrill me - I'm not keen on pure speed rusher guys.

 

[mayoclinic]

I could just about live with Barr at #29 but the prospect doesn't thrill me - I'm not keen on pure speed rusher guys.

I don't think Barr is a pure speed rusher. But I'm pretty much with you - I would be ok with it, but it wouldn't thrill me. Not with Jamie Collins - a much more explosive player - on board. I'd probably prefer Ryan Shazier.

 

[manxman2601]

Shamar Stephen got a 66 on mayo's metric, better than DaQuan Jones (58). Almost from the start, I've preferred Stephens' value over Jones' and I think he represents a really good day 3 option at DT.

 

[mayoclinic]

Shamar Stephen got a 66 on mayo's metric, better than DaQuan Jones (58). Almost from the start, I've preferred Stephens' value over Jones' and I think he represents a really good day 3 option at DT.

I'm not a Jones fan. I'd agree that Stephens is a much better value.

 

[mayoclinic]

I don't think Barr is a pure speed rusher. But I'm pretty much with you - I would be ok with it, but it wouldn't thrill me. Not with Jamie Collins - a much more explosive player - on board. I'd probably prefer Ryan Shazier.

Interesting to compare potential DE/OLB pass rushers Marcus Smith and Anthony Barr:

- Smith 6' 3 3/8" 251# 34" arms 10" hands; explosiveness = 35" VJ + 10'1" BJ + 23 BP 68; mobility - no SS, but 4.68 40 + 1.57 10-split + 7.48 SS =
- Barr 6' 4 7/8" 255# 33 1/2" arms 9 5/8" hands; explosiveness = 34" VJ + 9'11" BJ + 15 BP = 58-59 (9'11" is darn close to 10'); mobility = 4.66 40 + 1.56 10-split + 4.19 SS + 6.82 3C = 17.23.

In other words, from a pure athleticism perspective Barr and Smith have almost identical height/weight/arm length, 40 time, 10-yard split, vertical jump and broad jump. The big differences are upper body endurance strength (15 reps for Barr, 23 for Smith) and lateral mobility (6.82 3-cone for Barr, 7.48 for Smith).

I think that Barr can get a little stronger and can develop his leg drive a bit. If Smith's 3-cone is "real" and not just an outlier of what he can do, I'm not sure that's as easy to improve on.

 

[stevedogc]

Off the top of my head, I were to try and come up with something like this for a DT, it would look something like this:

300#+ weight
30" vertical or more - suggests explosiveness
8 1/2' broad jump or more - suggests explosiveness
1.75 10 yard split or better - suggests quickness
30+ reps@225 - crudest metric of upper body power, even though it's a poor one
* Meets all but one criteria, but excels at 1 or more

Using that metric, I come up with the following guys who qualify as elite explosive DT prospects:

- Ra'Shede Hageman (2014): 311#, 1.75 10-split, 35" VJ, 9'6" VJ, 32 BP.
- Aaron Donald* (2011): 285#, 1.59 10-split, 32" VJ, 9' 8" broad jump, 35 BP.
- Linval Joseph (2010):328#, 1.75 10-split, 31.5" VJ, 8' 6" BJ, 39 BP.
- Ndamukong Suh (2010): 307#, 1.69 10-split, 35.5" VJ, 8'9" BJ, 32 BP.
- Geno Atkins* (2010): 293#, 1.68 10-split, 33" VJ, 9'8" BJ, 34 BP.
- Haloti Ngata (2006): 338#, 1.73 10-split, 31.5 VJ, 9'2" BJ, 37 BP.
- JJ Watt* (2011): 290#, 1.64 10-split, 37" VJ, 10' BJ, 34 BP.
- Dontari Poe* (2012): 346#, 1.67 10-split, 29.5" VJ, 8'9" BJ, 44 BP. Given that Poe weighed 346#, I think I can make an exception for being 1/2" short of my broad jump cutoff.
- Lamarr Houston (2010): 305#, 1.68 10-split, 33.5" VJ, 9'6" BJ, 30 BP.
- BJ Raji (2009): 337#, 1.69 10-split, 32" VJ, 8'7" BJ, 33 BP.

Guys who missed the cutoff:

- Fletcher Cox: 26" vertical at 298#.
- Michael Brockers: 1.78 10-split lowered to 1.73 at his pro day; 26.5" VJ raised to 30" at his pro day; 21 BP.
- Nick Fairley: no BP result reported for either the Combine or his Pro Day. Barely made the 30" VJ cutoff at 291#.
- Marcel Dareus: 27" VJ, 24 BP.
- Kevin Williams: 23 BP.
- Glenn Dorsey: 297#, barely made 10-split (1.74); missed on VJ (25.5"), BJ (8'4") and BP (27).
- Sedrick Ellis: 26.5" vertical.

Of interest:

- Armond Armstead (2012 pro day): 290#, 30" VJ, 9'10" BJ. BP and 10-split not reported, but the other numbers of very suggestive, especially the broad jump.
- I can't find a 10-split number of Vince Wilfork. His vertical was 26.5" at 323#.

A FA DT sleeper of mine. Alex Carrington. These are his numbers prior to being drafted in 2010.

285# (although I think he plays at 300 now), 33 VJ, 10'2" BJ, 26 BP (a bit low), 1.68 10-yard

 

[mayoclinic]

Rob Rang analyzes winners and losers from the Combine in terms of the vertical jump component of explosiveness:

2014 NFL Draft: Winners, losers, surprises in combine vertical jump - CBSSports.com

Of note:

With all due respect to Jadaveon Clowney (who posted an impressive 37.5), no big man performed better in the vertical jump than Minnesota's 6-6, 310-pound Ra'Shede Hageman, whose 35.5 would have tied him for 11th among all wide receivers -- the most gifted position group in the 2014 draft class. Better yet, Hageman's vertical translates onto the gridiron; he knocked down eight passes and two kicks in 2013.

Scouts knew Ohio State outside linebacker Ryan Shazier was explosive, but few would have predicted that he'd lead the combine with a 42-inch vertical -- especially after measuring in heavier than expected at 6-1, 237 pounds. Shazier's vertical (and all-around stellar workout) is among the reasons why he's overtaken Alabama's C.J. Mosley as the top 4-3 linebacker on some boards.

Scouts love receivers who have great height but are cautious of those who don't play to their natural advantages. As such, surprisingly poor numbers from big receivers like Florida State's 6-5, 240-pound Kelvin Benjamin (32.5), Rutgers' 6-6, 225 pound Brandon Coleman (32.5) and BYU's 6-4, 223-pound Cody Hoffman (27.5) could have an adverse effect on their stock.

Leaping ability is a desirable trait for wide receivers, given the number of jump balls that take place in today game. Long, athletic receivers like Baylor's Tevin Reese (41-inch vertical), Fresno State's Davante Adams (39.5), Mississippi's Donte Moncrief (39.5) and Clemson's Martavis Bryant (39) were expected to star in this event but surprising efforts were turned in by slot receivers Damian Copeland (40) and Mike Campanaro (39), who come in at 5-11, 184 pounds and 5-9, 192. The explosive verticals provide quantitative evidence of why each became the most trusted receivers in their collegiate offenses and perhaps stand a better chance than most receivers of their rather pedestrian size to make it in the NFL.

 

[Coach42]

Kinda of interesting that if you take BP out of the equation the Barr/Smith comparison is 45 to 44 or 43 for Smith.

 

[Snake Eyes]

A FA DT sleeper of mine. Alex Carrington. These are his numbers prior to being drafted in 2010.

285# (although I think he plays at 300 now), 33 VJ, 10'2" BJ, 26 BP (a bit low), 1.68 10-yard

Carrington was a binkie of mine a few years ago.