Logan Mankins ... When/Will/How Much - to Resign Him.

[Box_O_Rocks]

One question for me is if the Pats target SILB as a need, wanting to stick another nice young stud next to Mayo. But maybe Guyton is that guy? I think he might be. He has the size for it, and ridiculous speed. He was great in preseason, and the fact that he beat out Hobson and almost instantly was #2 on the depth chart at the position says something (well, and maybe says something about Hobson).

Plus, the Pats have shown this season that they'll take a (non-Jerod Mayo) ILB off the field on passing downs. More often than not, they've been a 3-3-5 in passing situations. In the Jets game we saw a dime package that had 6 DBs, 4 on the line (2 pure DLs + 2 OLBs [AD & Vrabel]) & 1 ILB (Mayo). Either way, since we use these packages probably 25-35% of the plays (guesstimate), it might reduce the need to draft a Bruschi replacement. Of course, that % also goes up when Brady is back and we're back to being ahead by 2-3 TDs midway through games.

Before trying to forecast the draft. Let's look at the current pool of LBs under the Team's control:

Veteran (over 4 years)
Bruschi 2009
Vrabel 2009
Thomas 2011
Izzo 2008

Youngster
Mayo 2012
Woods 2008 (RFA)
Alexander 2008 (RFA?)
Guyton 2009
Crable 2011
Ruud (IR) 2011
Redd (PS) 2008

- Let's project "starters" in 2009 to be Thomas, Mayo, and Vrabel.
- For now, let's project Tedy makes the club as a role player.
- Woods took 9 of 57 reps in the Miami game, about the same as Mike Wright, so he's arguably getting valued reserve reps, he may not be a starter in 09, but he'll be able to step in as an injury replacement/rotational player with a manageable drop in production.
- Alexander and Izzo are immaterial to this discussion.
- We now get to Guyton, Crable, Ruud, and Redd...

Guyton made this season's roster. Pioli reportedly stated they should have drafted him and were very fortunate to sign him to a UDFA deal. He needs to "bulk up" and get stronger to take on OL inside, he also needs to improve his coverage skills - I'd say he's in the right system and working with the right veterans and coaches to get better in those areas. I project him to be in the mix in 2009 to at least retain his #1 reserve ILB slot.

Crable flashed some talent in preseason, he also showed himself to be badly in need of "bulking up." He was kept on the roster to develop and what applies to Guyton being in the right system seems to apply to him. He may not beat out Woods for #1 reserve OLB, but he has the talent to push him a bit.

Ruud is an unknown, coming off an injury there's just no saying how he will develop - he is likely to be bigger, stronger, and more explosive after working with the strength coaches. Wait and see.

Redd is another unknown. He flashed strength on the edge and some speed, including a nice play on Special Teams in preseason. But it's hard to say what he will be. At 6'6" 260 he could be developed as an OLB, or he could be "bulked up" and moved inside to 3-4 DE. The advantage he has is spending time on the Practice Squad gets him lots of work in a lot of areas - I believe he also already earned a black jersey so that's a small step in the right direction for him.

Looking ahead to April 2009, BB will have some idea on where his LB depth is headed for the season. For today I'm projecting the following leading up to the draft: 5 OLB (Vrabel, Thomas, Woods, Crable, Redd) and 5 ILB (Mayo, Thomas, Bruschi, Guyton, Ruud) for now. Factor in possible FA signings and drafting a LB doesn't look as urgent.

Addressing your nickel question: Mayo came out of college as a better than average coverage LB - he's got a lot to learn, but he should develop nicely. Guyton showed some coverage skills in college and he certainly has the straight line speed to challenge TE and RBs - he's looked okay in coverage thus far in the season. Ruud's scouting report also has him showing some coverage talent. Crable had that surprise 'look what I found' interception in preseason and has some speed himself. I'd say the youngsters have something to bring to the table - and Tank Williams could be re-signed too.

 

[BradyManny]

- Let's project "starters" in 2009 to be Thomas, Mayo, and Vrabel.
- For now, let's project Tedy makes the club as a role player.
- Woods took 9 of 57 reps in the Miami game, about the same as Mike Wright, so he's arguably getting valued reserve reps, he may not be a starter in 09, but he'll be able to step in as an injury replacement/rotational player with a manageable drop in production.
- Alexander and Izzo are immaterial to this discussion.
- We now get to Guyton, Crable, Ruud, and Redd...

Guyton made this season's roster. Pioli reportedly stated they should have drafted him and were very fortunate to sign him to a UDFA deal. He needs to "bulk up" and get stronger to take on OL inside, he also needs to improve his coverage skills - I'd say he's in the right system and working with the right veterans and coaches to get better in those areas. I project him to be in the mix in 2009 to at least retain his #1 reserve ILB slot.

Crable flashed some talent in preseason, he also showed himself to be badly in need of "bulking up." He was kept on the roster to develop and what applies to Guyton being in the right system seems to apply to him. He may not beat out Woods for #1 reserve OLB, but he has the talent to push him a bit.

Ruud is an unknown, coming off an injury there's just no saying how he will develop - he is likely to be bigger, stronger, and more explosive after working with the strength coaches. Wait and see.

Redd is another unknown. He flashed strength on the edge and some speed, including a nice play on Special Teams in preseason. But it's hard to say what he will be. At 6'6" 260 he could be developed as an OLB, or he could be "bulked up" and moved inside to 3-4 DE. The advantage he has is spending time on the Practice Squad gets him lots of work in a lot of areas - I believe he also already earned a black jersey so that's a small step in the right direction for him.

Looking ahead to April 2009, BB will have some idea on where his LB depth is headed for the season. For today I'm projecting the following leading up to the draft: 5 OLB (Vrabel, Thomas, Woods, Crable, Redd) and 5 ILB (Mayo, Thomas, Bruschi, Guyton, Ruud) for now. Factor in possible FA signings and drafting a LB doesn't look as urgent.

Addressing your nickel question: Mayo came out of college as a better than average coverage LB - he's got a lot to learn, but he should develop nicely. Guyton showed some coverage skills in college and he certainly has the straight line speed to challenge TE and RBs - he's looked okay in coverage thus far in the season. Ruud's scouting report also has him showing some coverage talent. Crable had that surprise 'look what I found' interception in preseason and has some speed himself. I'd say the youngsters have something to bring to the table - and Tank Williams could be re-signed too.

Good stuff. Good point about Tank Williams. If he's healthy, I guess I would like to see it. Do you remember what the nickel formation looked like when Tank was in? I wish I hadn't deleted the preseason off my DVR, b/c I'd be interested to know if AD's role - which has included a lot of coverage of TEs so far - was going to be that way if Tank was healthy.

I hope Guyton gets enough reps this season that the team can make a decision about whether he can contribute next season. For me, he'd be the biggest factor in deciding if ILB was a need in the draft, and if they have confidence in him, then I'd agree with your assessment that it won't be a real need heading into April. While I don't have the knowledge to always know his responsibilities, I'm not sure what to think about Bruschi's play thus far, it's been up and down from what I can tell. Perhaps its wishful thinking, but it would be nice to think that in Guyton, we might have his successor at the position.

On the subject of Woods & Crable, and looking past next season for a second, I wonder if Vrabel will be back. He'll be 35 going into the 2010 season, and he really didn't show signs of slowing down last season, but who knows. If that's it for him, then I'd actually feel comfortable with Woods & Crable competing for a starting spot by then. Assuming we re-sign Woods and keep him around until then.