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Likelihood of Pats Opponent and Path to Victory


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Re: Scenario 2: Pittsburgh Steelers

I find so many of these 'comparisons' so simplistic. It was nice to see the Pats beat the Bills, but of far more significance is that critical injured players are returning and getting healthy at the right time as the Patriots head into the Playoffs.

The still injured players have at least adequate depth behind them. Volmer at ORT may not play again this season, but Solder and Cannon appear to both be adequate replacements, as is Connelly replacing Koppens. Branch is battling a groin pull, but Ocho is creditable if not productive, and the play of the two TEs are covering up that problem more than adequately. The loss of Carter hurts, but Anderson seems to be stepping up and for the first time since Bruschi, the ILBs have had success with inside blitzes.

Of much more significance, is that the ILB are buttressed by Spikes return and the previous return of Fletcher and Mayo. The secondary so depleted that the Pats Coaches were playing multiple WR there, has seen the return of Chung, McCourty, and Moore. For the first time in more than half a season, the Pats can actually lineup with four players who were trained as DBs. Having to play WRs, forced the Coaches to employ the most rudimentary of Defenses. Being able to actually call sophisticated NFL-level Defenses, even with pickup players, and even marginal results, is a great step forward.

The 2011 Pats going into the Playoffs are not limping in, unlike the 2007 and 2009 teams, or even, the undermanned 2010 team.

Trying to judge this getting-healthy, Playoff team by the season long statistics is truly suspect, and not very useful.
 
Re: Scenario 2: Pittsburgh Steelers

It is just unFing believable how spoiled and out of touch this fan base is.
Right now we've got about as good a chance as anyone to get to the Superbowl. If you were a fan before 2001, you know how wonderful this actually is.

Amen.

It's a great time of year. Pats have the #1 bye for heaven's sake.
 
Re: Scenario 2: Pittsburgh Steelers

Given the fact that BB will be ready with a counter to our surprise D strategy from the regular season, frankly I don't know how much I'd like our chances for a second game with the Pats, even with a healthier team.

But lost in the news about Mendy was that we also lost our nickel and dime DBs in the Cleveland game. We just have a lot of guys banged up in areas where we don't have much depth. We may be able to get by Denver with that, but against NE that will be a very tall order.

*If* we make it past Denver--and I don't think that's the gimme that a lot of people are making it out to be--and end up playing at your place, I think it could be a very rough game.

I think you're beating Denver. I just hope Denver's D roughs you up a little bit before coming to Foxboro! ;)
 
Re: Scenario 2: Pittsburgh Steelers

I actually like our chances against Pittsburgh...losing mendenhall was a big blow to their offense. and Roethlisberger is obviously still hurting and looks bad out there....they put up a whopping 13points against the browns

obviously though I would rather face Denver or the Bengals...but I think the injuries to the steelers and our history against them make them much more manageable

unless brady and the offense puts up a stinker I really like our chances in the AFC...
 
Re: Scenario 2: Pittsburgh Steelers

this just tweeted by Schefter

Big blow to Pittsburgh: Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL and is out for the season.
 
Re: Scenario 2: Pittsburgh Steelers

this just tweeted by Schefter

Big blow to Pittsburgh: Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall tore his ACL and is out for the season.

Ouch. As much as I think he's overrated, he's a 20+ carry kind of RB. He can take plenty of carries and a pounding. I doubt Isaac Redman can and Mewelde Moore is their Faulk.
 
Re: Scenario 2: Pittsburgh Steelers

Am I the only one thinking Denver can beat the Steelers??

Ben hasn't been able to move since he hurt his ankle, and he keeps playing in these games which is not helping him. Has Pouncey returned yet?

Steelers will be facing a vicious pass rush with a most likely immobile Ben, hurting/missing starting center (which forces Pitt to shift their left side of the OL around as they don't simply replace their missing player, but do a line shift), Mendenhall is gone for the year with a torn ACL, and Ryan Clark might miss the game with an illness (I believe, didn't see any information on what he actually has).

Pitt is in awful shape and struggled to beat the fearsome Browns.

I think Cincy will beat Houston (they've looked awful in December) and Denver will beat Pitt.

NE faces Cincy in round 2, BAL faces Denver.

NE faces BAL in AFCCG. What happens there is anyones guess. Baltimores offense won't scare many but our D makes everyone look above average at time. Hope Flacco gets careless. Our offense can be slowed but not stopped. We'd probably need Flacco to give us an extra possession or two. Baltimore always plays us very tough.
 
Re: Scenario 2: Pittsburgh Steelers

I would not count Denver out. They are a team that is committed to the run and can rush the passer. There is no doubt in my mind that Denver has a shot to win that game.
 
Re: Scenario 2: Pittsburgh Steelers

I actually like our chances against Pittsburgh...losing mendenhall was a big blow to their offense. and Roethlisberger is obviously still hurting and looks bad out there

Denver has a really good pass rush and Pittsburgh's offensive line is suspect, having given up 42 sacks on the season (9th worst in the league). Plus, with an immobile Roethlisberger back there, he could take a beating. I still think they win (I can't see Denver scoring more than 10 points against them), but I don't think that game will do much for Ben's health.
 
Based on the point spread and a rough graph of probability of winning versus point spread, it looks like Houston +3 means 60-40% chance of winning, and Pittsburgh +9 means 75-25% chance of winning. So Pats have

40% chance of playing Cincy

45% Pittsburgh

15% Denver


I'm not proud -- I want the easiest path. So I'm rooting for Cincy over Houston, Denver over Pittsburgh, and Denver over Baltimore, so we get Denver in the conference final.

I'm not sure if I want Atlanta or Detroit in the SB. Do not want to see the Giants again.
 
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