kneel down sequence?

[raduray]

I think we played the situation properly...

I disagree. If Baltimore had not botched the punt return and called for a fair catch, they would have had two tries for a Hail Mary.

 

[Schmo]

I think that you have to run Blount 3 times if you're aware that there's going to be a leftover time differential. Either a first down or an extra 5 seconds per play seals it.

Don't hand the ball back as an alternative to 'risking turning the ball over.'

 

[alamo]

Snap it to Brady and make him waste 3 or 4 seconds before kneeling.

He'd have to do that on all downs (remember you couldn't foresee the punt wouldn't be fair-caught).

But... you started on the 20. Every time you have Brady run around you necessarily have to keep him well back of the LOS and he would have lost a few yards, getting a lot closer to the goal line. That would have made things a lot easier for the Ravens on the punt.

Have they ever had Brady do that before? They probably don't practice it, so trying something tricky would have unwisely raised the risk of a mistake.

 

[n6249c]

Guys remember ... On a fair catch on a safety free kick , the receiving kick can choose to take a free kick FG and the wind was behind the ravens I believe . So a safety making it a 2 pt game and a kick from the 20 may have given ravens a chance at a place kick field goal :

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fair_catch_kick

I'm sure BB considered this and took lowest variance situation (kneel )

Maybe, but consider that Ghost put the KO after the Pat's last TD about five yards deep in the end zone, although Jones ran it out. So it figures the kickoff after the proposed safety would've been deep enough that the fair catch would've been somewhere around the twenty-five or thirty yard line. Even if he shanked it and it was fair caught at the forty yard line that means a seventy yard FG attempt, on a frigid night (ie, with a heavy dead ball). I thought the safety would be a good call.

Also, if Brady just took the snap and rolled out before giving himself up on each play it could've eaten several seconds per play, enough to make the issue moot. I think it was a brain fart on the part of the Pat's brain trust.

 

[n6249c]

Place kick field goal from their own twenty? Tricky! (I'm assuming a 60 yard punt which is reasonable when you consider they normally kick from ten yards behind the Los)

Free kick does not need to be a punt, could be a place kick. No tee can be used, but it can be held and place kicked. So normal kickoff distance seems reasonable to assume.

 

[DarrylS]

This is the sequence of plays from NFL.com stats...

The sequence of plays.. when they took over the ball there was a time out due to change of possession.

1. New England Patriots at 01:39
2. 1-10-NE 20(1:39) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 18 for -2 yards. (42 of 45 seconds used)
3. 2-12-NE 18( .57) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 16 for -2 yards. (45 seconds used)
4. 3-14-NE 16( .15) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 15 for -1 yards. (Ravens call a time out)

Running around in the backfield for 15 seconds, handing the ball off is risky... they handled it correctly, to me it shows tremendous confidence by BB in his special teams and defense of hail mary's...

This is much ado about nothing.. my math reveals that they could have used three more seconds in the first play from scrimmage, but not much else..

No trick plays here, hang on to the ball, punt it...let the rest of the squads do their job...

 

[farn]

I think it was a calculated risk. A few seconds to throw a Hail Mary v the probability of a fumble on the 20 yard line. I like the choice. The Ravens are strong up front. Hungry up front. The ball had already been on the ground a few times. Good call to give NE the best chance to win the game.

 

[voluntarysaftey]

This is the sequence of plays from NFL.com stats...

The sequence of plays.. when they took over the ball there was a time out due to change of possession.

1. New England Patriots at 01:39
2. 1-10-NE 20(1:39) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 18 for -2 yards. (42 of 45 seconds used)
3. 2-12-NE 18( .57) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 16 for -2 yards. (45 seconds used)
4. 3-14-NE 16( .15) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 15 for -1 yards. (Ravens call a time out)

Running around in the backfield for 15 seconds, handing the ball off is risky... they handled it correctly, to me it shows tremendous confidence by BB in his special teams and defense of hail mary's...

This is much ado about nothing.. my math reveals that they could have used three more seconds in the first play from scrimmage, but not much else..

No trick plays here, hang on to the ball, punt it...let the rest of the squads do their job...

Thanks for the timeline -- not using those 3 seconds, and Brady's reaction at the end showed that he believed he could safely run the clock out -- even if BB was telling the defense otherwise.

Also they could've done something like on 3rd down have the ball go to Edelman, he runs outside the box to the endzone, and then chucks it up deep out of bounds -- that might've killed 8 more seconds; leaving the ravens with only the punt return

Or since Baltimore was saving that timeout for 4th down, why not sneak the punt return unit on there when there's 15 seconds left on the playclock for 3rd down. best case is we get a punt off when Baltimore has no one back there and the time just runs out cause they have to chase down the ball; or Baltimore is forced to use the timeout on 3rd down after most of the playclock has been used up, and then we run our normal kneel down play. Worst case is Baltimore is ready for it and we take a timeout with 0 seconds on the playclock and then do the usual kneeldown

 

[DarrylS]

Thanks for the timeline -- not using those 3 seconds, and Brady's reaction at the end showed that he believed he could safely run the clock out -- even if BB was telling the defense otherwise.

Also they could've done something like on 3rd down have the ball go to Edelman, he runs outside the box to the endzone, and then chucks it up deep out of bounds -- that might've killed 8 more seconds; leaving the ravens with only the punt return

Or since Baltimore was saving that timeout for 4th down, why not sneak the punt return unit on there when there's 15 seconds left on the playclock for 3rd down. best case is we get a punt off when Baltimore has no one back there and the time just runs out cause they have to chase down the ball; or Baltimore is forced to use the timeout on 3rd down after most of the playclock has been used up, and then we run our normal kneel down play. Worst case is Baltimore is ready for it and we take a timeout with 0 seconds on the playclock and then do the usual kneeldown

My druthers is to keep it simple and not risk anything that had to do with handling the ball.. the percentages were definitely on what BB did.. the Ravens were 52 yards from the endzone..

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/09/hail-mary-probabilities.html

 

[State]

A simple running play on first down would have been enough to ether make them use the timeout or allow the pats to run the clock out, either way they run the clock out.

But that assumes McDaniels can call one. We were too passhappy last night. And I'd rather have Jonas Gray carry it than Blount, don't ask me why. Here's hoping Gray is active for next week's game.

 

[State]

Yeah, but Darryl, that wonderful statistical graph needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Flacco's arm strength is elite, maybe the best in the game. Second, his uncanny record in the postseason should be factored in. And as Scott Zolak said last night--I had to mute the announcers--the Ravens were cool as cucumbers. A Ravens hail mary is scarier for all those reasons. I think we should have run the ball a time or two, keeping both hands on it. But you're right, it's coaching preference. And we certainly abandoned the run game, which I think was foolish. Gotta keep the other team's defense at least thinking about it.

 

[letekro]

They did the smart thing. More likely to lose a fumble on one of three runs than give up a hail mary.

 

[Patters]

If our defense can't stop the Ravens with at most 14 seconds on the clock, the Pats don't deserve to win. If the end had been played any other way, the criticism of BB would be that he doesn't trust his D. The D did not do a bad job in that game, except for those first two Ravens drives when the D was playing too slow (probably rusty from the by week).

 

[h0c2000]

The only thing I think he botched was taking a timeout instead of challenging that incompletion before the 2 minute warning. Why not get a review. I never saw a good replay.

 

[zoostation]

I was thinking that NBC incorrectly had one time out left for Baltimore. I'm guessing that Belichick thought the Ravens were out of timeouts. Big mistake.

Unfortunately I agree with this ^

 

[zoostation]

If our defense can't stop the Ravens with at most 14 seconds on the clock, the Pats don't deserve to win. If the end had been played any other way, the criticism of BB would be that he doesn't trust his D. The D did not do a bad job in that game, except for those first two Ravens drives when the D was playing too slow (probably rusty from the by week).

This had nothing to do with the Patriot defense. Football 101 - kill the clock in that situation, game/set/match.

Anyway, We're on to afccg

 

[bigballas]

This is the sequence of plays from NFL.com stats...

The sequence of plays.. when they took over the ball there was a time out due to change of possession.

1. New England Patriots at 01:39
2. 1-10-NE 20(1:39) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 18 for -2 yards. (42 of 45 seconds used)
3. 2-12-NE 18( .57) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 16 for -2 yards. (45 seconds used)
4. 3-14-NE 16( .15) 12-T.Brady kneels to NE 15 for -1 yards. (Ravens call a time out)

Running around in the backfield for 15 seconds, handing the ball off is risky... they handled it correctly, to me it shows tremendous confidence by BB in his special teams and defense of hail mary's...

This is much ado about nothing.. my math reveals that they could have used three more seconds in the first play from scrimmage, but not much else..

No trick plays here, hang on to the ball, punt it...let the rest of the squads do their job...

This seems most plausible to me

 

[Patters]

This had nothing to do with the Patriot defense. Football 101 - kill the clock in that situation, game/set/match.

Anyway, We're on to afccg

I disagree. There's risk either way. The risk of a bad snap or fumble if the O killed time was as great as the risk of the D failing to block a Hail Mary. For BB to have done it any other way would have shown a lack of trust in his D.

But, anyway we're on to the afccg.

 

[DarrylS]

Yeah, but Darryl, that wonderful statistical graph needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Flacco's arm strength is elite, maybe the best in the game. Second, his uncanny record in the postseason should be factored in. And as Scott Zolak said last night--I had to mute the announcers--the Ravens were cool as cucumbers. A Ravens hail mary is scarier for all those reasons. I think we should have run the ball a time or two, keeping both hands on it. But you're right, it's coaching preference. And we certainly abandoned the run game, which I think was foolish. Gotta keep the other team's defense at least thinking about it.

So you trust what might have happened(subjective) rather than the history of the game??? The Pats put the ball on the ground 3 times last night, only two counted...

For some reason the heroics of Doug Flutie still rest in our minds.. the reality is much different, the chance of making 52 yard hail mary are slim and none.. the Pats practice this stuff and are prepared for all eventualities...

Even Jacoby Jones knew he could not waste much time dancing around and needed to get to the sidelines, he averages about 9 yards a return.. BB and his upstairs brain trust knew all the options and possible scenarios.. Ryan Allen has had 1 blocked punt out of 142... BB plays the odds, and what was different yesterday was his confidence in special teams and the defense..

 

[Ring 6]

I just think that with Flacco's history of throwing his famous deep balls, you want to do anything you can to avoid giving him a chance to get one last throw in. Those few seconds taken off by running it might not run off the clock, but it would run out enough clock for them to not get an opportunity to get anymore than a chance to return a punt.

I just thought it wasn't the best job at making sure the clock is ran down to double zeroes. Everyone was acting as if the game was over and that Baltimore didn't have a time out left!

Has flacco ever completed a game winning Hail Mary?
I'm not sure how the fans misunderstanding that the kneel downs would end it has anything to do with it.
I understand we would have wanted to not have to endure that play but I'm not sure how that could have happened.