It will depend on which team maintains its rhythm. If both play the way they can this should be a fantastic game that goes down to the last minute.
Both defenses are capable of breaking the opposing teams rhythm, but I dont think either one can dominate for 60 minutes - though I would have to favor the larger unit, that is the Pats.
Key aspects will be:
whether OL can keep Freeney and Mathis from TB - I felt safe with Kyle Brady in there blocking so I am keeping a close eye on his supposed injury (didnt play 2nd half). Matt Light needs him.
whether Ugoh can protect Manning's blind side (again injury watch on him as his replacement is poor).
how durable Sanders is. He is the key to the Colt's secondary and will have a busy day rushing the line against the run, covering the slot against Welker and helping covering the non-double-teamed receiver.
how well the Colts secondary protect against Moss's height and hands (sorry but their corners are not elite) and Stalworths burst and tackle breaking YAC.
how well Clark is covered - suspect there will be multiple revolving assigments here involving Rodney, AD, Sanders and Gay
How well the Patriots secondary protect against Wayne's speed and agility (used to be Harrison but he is still injured and not playing like he used to when active). This is the one I worry about most as Clark can be covered, while Wayne is elite (well not quite up to Moss).
how well TB avoids the foolish pass (I know it hasnt happened often this season, but he is not perfect and every so often coughs one up - I would rather he did so against the Skins or the Bills than against the Colts).
And finally how well the Patriots can pressure Manning, either into rushing or moving out of the pocket. Under certain pressure PM gets happy feet and when he does the interceptions start racking up.
Those are the keys in my mind. On a level playing field, the Pats have quite the edge. In the dome it will be closer, though the advantage stays with the Pats.
One item off topic which I found on the indy board
http://www2.indystar.com/forums/showthread.php?t=211554
At least one Colts fan understands about spygate (Shifty at the bottom of the first page). Shifty gave a really good response to some fans wanting to print plackards with asterisks on them.....I particularly liked the line
Pats were accused of stealing signs with video equiptment. This evolved into charges of "cheating", with suggestions that all of their accomplishments were tainted. The fact of the matter is..... and this appears to be the area that some fans have trouble grasping the truth and putting all this into perspective.....many, if not all, teams attempt to steal signs, though not all might choose video to do it.
Sorry to add this anecdote to this thread, but I really didn't want to start a new thread on spygate.