Just how good of a prospect is Kevin O'Connell?

[maverick4]

It's the offseason, 2 months till the draft. Hopefully we can keep things interesting till then beyond "BB did [x], BB is smart" insight

 

[Kontradiction]

Hey Kontra, you definitely earned your screen name with these two sentences!





Anyway...amidst all the griping, I actually think this thread has been pretty informative. My takeaway, FWIW: O'Connell was drafted in the 3rd based on extraordinary raw potential (think Vince Young with 30 extra Wonderlic points). But he was very unpolished and needed a thorough makeover of his game. Therefore, while we can't know how much he's progressed over the past year, it's reasonable to expect him to be less ready to start than a prospect drafted at the same point based on a more polished skills but a lower ceiling.

Probably should have put "hope" instead of "think" but it is what it is.

 

[Synovia]

Pioli said, in Education of a coach, that NO body in the front office will tell you that they had any idea or saw anything in Tom, at the time, that would have lead them to believe that Brady would have turned out the way he did, and he went on to say, and if someone DOES tell you that - They are lying.

I'm sure he would say the same thing about Cassel.

The fact that they didn't "see anything" that made them think TB was goign to be a stud, doesn't mean that there wasn't some subtle cue that they picked him on unconsciously.

It may not be that the Patriots have a better idea of what QB is going to be good, but that they're picking based on qualities that are more likely to have the QB end up being good.


IE, if they're picking guys with high wonderlick scores, high accuracy, and a certain personality, it could be that those things, unbeknownst to them, are just really good things to pick a qb on.

 

[Synovia]

......he is at least on par with cassel in regards to any characteristic you may want in a QB and more athletic

Tanked, thats a fallacy. Cassel has proved he can play at an NFL level. From a pure statistics standpoint, its unlikely that O'Connel can. Most QBs don't pan out.


Cassel was a very long shot, O'Connel is a little less of a long shot. The fact that Cassel panned out doesn't mean that O'Connel is likely to.

 

[FarScapeR]

Very true indeed. He could very well be a third round bust, but he's looked good in limited pre-season action (which, yes I know, really doesn't say much at all) and was higher up on the depth chart than Gutierrez, whom we were all sure was going to take Cassel's job a few months ago.

 

[Jimke]

Keep your fingers crossed that BB knew exactly what he was

doing when he drafted O'Connell. There is a very good possibility

O'Connell will be the starter when Cassel is traded and if Brady is

unable to start the season. O'Connell showed some promise during

the pre-season games last year. As a rookie, he beat out Gutierrez

for the back up job.

 

[DaBruinz]

So you're saying it's a typical Patriots practice to invite 2 QB's in for visits before the Chiefs game, and then once having arrived in Foxboro, to notify them to go back home immediately? And that the timing of Brady's injury had no impact on this odd/rude practice of sending a player back without seeing him? And when multiple Boston media wrote on the subject when it happened, ascribing it to supporting Cassel?

You're ignorance and misguided analysis on this is interesting.

Here is what Reiss said on the subject:
Ask Reiss: Stoking the hot stove season begin - Boston.com

Here is what I think happened, Magoo. At that time of year, NFL teams usually bring in players at every position so they can keep their emergency lists fresh by updating medical information etc. I believe the Patriots had the workout with Tim Rattay scheduled well before Tom Brady went down with the injury. Once Brady went down, I think they quickly arranged to add Chris Simms to the list. Then, after sleeping on it, I think Bill Belichick decided that it wasn't worth the distraction to add Rattay or Simms -- even if they'd be the No. 3 quarterback -- when he knew that Cassel was the best option and gave the team the best chance to win. So he sent both Rattay and Simms home, saying the team's situation had changed. I bet he also had Cassel's confidence in mind, and making that decision might have boosted it.

Actually, it is the norm for the Patriots to invite players in for workouts to keep their emergency list up to date. Many people have mentioned this previously as well. By that token and your response, you are claiming that everyone else but you is ignorant and offering misguided analysis. This coming from the man who INSISTED that McDaniels said something even though the article referenced proved otherwise. And threw a hissy fit because numerous people told him that he didn't know what he was talking about.

And you wonder why people treat you with disdain.....

 

[maverick4]

Now: big question.

If Cassel is traded, do you keep KO at #2, or try to pick up a veteran?

 

[maverick4]

Here is what Reiss said on the subject:

You are COMPLETELY full of crap, why continue to validate you are one of the biggest a-hole grouches on the entire site?

In that link, Reiss offers his own conjecture as to why 2 QB's were sent home, nothing confirmed or proven... but even he supports the contention that they were went back because the Pats wanted to support Cassel. Your post does nothing but prove that you will go to no ends to prove a ******ed point.

 

[DaBruinz]

Tanked, thats a fallacy. Cassel has proved he can play at an NFL level. From a pure statistics standpoint, its unlikely that O'Connel can. Most QBs don't pan out.


Cassel was a very long shot, O'Connel is a little less of a long shot. The fact that Cassel panned out doesn't mean that O'Connel is likely to.

Synovia - How is what tanked said a fallacy when he wasn't comparing STATISTICS? He was comparing characteristics. Their make-up. The Tangibles and Intangibles.

When you look bck at how O'Connell did in pre-season, he did well for his first year and clearly did better than expected. Though I wasn't on his bandwagon to supplant Cassel, even I can admit the kid did well and recognize that it was more than just a handful of plays.

He looks to be very promising. The hope is that he never has to do what Cassel had to do. But, as pointed out. The Pats could have brought in a vet QB later in the season once Cassel had settled down if they felt that O'Connell couldn't handle the #2 slot. To me, the fact that they kept Gutierrez on and didn't bring in a vet, tells me that one or both of O'Connell and Gutierrez show enough that the Pats were comfortable with the situation.

 

[Terry Glenn is a cowgirl]

The answer to this may impact how we want to deal with Cassel (and also Brady). Anyone have any insight? I can't seem to find any *useful* scouting articles or vids, even post-draft, on this kid O'Connell.

I just went onto some old pre-08 draft San Diego message boards, who are presumably more knowledgeable about this local kid, and when talking about O'Connell they were saying how he'd be a good 6th or 7th rounder, and and there was lots of heated debate about whether O'Connell was better or possibly worse than Colt Brennan out of Hawaii.

The recurring themes I've read on this guy are:
- Natural leader, hard worker
- Good athlete and height, strong arm, very fast runner/scrambler
- Raw, bad mechanics, throws off his back foot too often, too many off target throws
- Goes for the home run throw too often

I have read a half dozen reports say he has BAD accuracy, while a half dozen other reports say he has uncanny accuracy. Which one is it?

His last 3 college seasons his TD/int were (most recent first): 15/8, 3/5, and 19/12. Maybe someone can chime in here, is this considered good/decent production on a bad team?

Here are some links:
New Era Scouting

NFL Events: Draft Player Profiles - Kevin O'Connell

SI.com - 2008 NFL Draft - Kevin O'Connell

I don't know much about him, but, what I seen in the preseason compared to Matt Cassel... I DO like him.

Absolutely!!!!

 

[tanked_as_usual]

Tanked, thats a fallacy. Cassel has proved he can play at an NFL level. From a pure statistics standpoint, its unlikely that O'Connel can. Most QBs don't pan out.


Cassel was a very long shot, O'Connel is a little less of a long shot. The fact that Cassel panned out doesn't mean that O'Connel is likely to.

its not a fallacy.........at the same points in their careers, oconnell is twice the QB that cassel was.........

better arm, more experienced, better athlete, better everything......if you don't see it, that's fine

 

[ctpatsfan77]

He looks to be very promising. The hope is that he never has to do what Cassel had to do. But, as pointed out. The Pats could have brought in a vet QB later in the season once Cassel had settled down if they felt that O'Connell couldn't handle the #2 slot. To me, the fact that they kept Gutierrez on and didn't bring in a vet, tells me that one or both of O'Connell and Gutierrez show enough that the Pats were comfortable with the situation.

Seeing as O'Connell was ahead of Gutierrez on the depth chart from wire to wire, I'm going to assume they thought KO'C was the better of the two.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

its not a fallacy.........at the same points in their careers, oconnell is twice the QB that cassel was.........

better arm, more experienced, better athlete, better everything......if you don't see it, that's fine

There was one thing that Cassel clearly had an advantage in, though--he spent his entire college career in a pro-style offense, run by a former NFL coach. O'Connell is widely reported as not having been very well coached (in fact, I believe the Aztecs' coach was fired after the 2008 season), and SDSU certainly was not a pro-style offense.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

There was one thing that Cassel clearly had an advantage in, though--he spent his entire college career in a pro-style offense, run by a former NFL coach. O'Connell is widely reported as not having been very well coached (in fact, I believe the Aztecs' coach was fired after the 2008 season), and SDSU certainly was not a pro-style offense.

so any coach that gets fired is a lousy coach? that must mean belichik is lousy.......

chuck long's success at SDSU was no different than tom craft's, and chuck long became a head coach on the shoulders of what he did as OC at oklahoma...........

I'd like to see these wide reports of oconnell being poorly coached........

and who cares what kind of offense is run? that's why they have these things called QB coaches and offensive coordinators in the NFL.....cassel didn't run ANY kind of offense in college ....in fact, one could argue that the scheme at SDSU was what prevented oconnell from being a first round prospect (which some believed he was on draft day including tom donahoe and ron jaworski)

and if you are so certain they did not run a pro-style offense at SDSU, do you care to tell me what kind of offense they ran?

is this not a pro set?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftMEiRffEDg

how about this?
http://www.veoh.com/browse/videos/category/sports/watch/v14866623pTqsHXJ

what set does someone who threw for 280 yards a game use? the veer?


update: in rereading your post, I am now not as sure of what you meant by the cassel advantage, but while palmer AND leinart were there, cassel did not even get to scrimmage much

 

[Synovia]

Synovia - How is what tanked said a fallacy when he wasn't comparing STATISTICS? He was comparing characteristics. Their make-up. The Tangibles and Intangibles.

Because hes making the assumption that Cassel succeeding makes a difference in O'Connel succeeding. They're unrelated events that both have very low probabilities.


The average 3rd round QB spends a couple years as a backup, then is out of the league. At this point, thats the most likely case for O'Connel. Cassel no longer fits in the comparison because hes proved he has something very important that O'connel hasn't: the abilitiy to adjust to NFL speed.

Comparing O'connel favorably to Cassel at this point is no more valid than comparing him to Brady: Neither are as big or as strong or as fast as O'Connel. That doesn't mean hes going to succeed.

 

[Synovia]

its not a fallacy.........at the same points in their careers, oconnell is twice the QB that cassel was.........

better arm, more experienced, better athlete, better everything......if you don't see it, that's fine

I do see it. Its not relevant. At the same point in their career, Ryan Leif was a much better prospect than either one. Hes an abject failure.


Cassel has already proven hes not typical. O'Connel hasn't.


As to "Better Everything" Absolutely not. Cassel has proven he can start in the NFL. O'Connel hasn't. There are plenty of QBs who have "all the tools" and can't do what Cassel has.

 

[DaBruinz]

Because hes making the assumption that Cassel succeeding makes a difference in O'Connel succeeding. They're unrelated events that both have very low probabilities.

Synovia you are wrong. First off, while Tanked started off by pointing out Cassel's statistics, he then tempered it by saying that O'Connell (2 L's by the way) at least had the characteristics that were as good or better than Cassel's. Now, take into consideration that O'Connell actually spent 4 years as a starter in college and that bodes well for him also. As does the modicum of success he had in his first training camp and pre-season.

Also, Cassel's succeeding DOES make a difference in O'Connell succeeding. What you are forgetting is that Belichick spends a lot of time with the QBs. Belichick has as much of a hand in developing Brady and Cassel as Weis and McDaniels did. If you don't think that Belichick has learned from those experiences and can use them to help O'Connell improve, then you are just being stubborn and foolish.

The average 3rd round QB spends a couple years as a backup, then is out of the league. At this point, thats the most likely case for O'Connel. Cassel no longer fits in the comparison because hes proved he has something very important that O'connel hasn't: the abilitiy to adjust to NFL speed.

Comparing O'connel favorably to Cassel at this point is no more valid than comparing him to Brady: Neither are as big or as strong or as fast as O'Connel. That doesn't mean hes going to succeed.

As for your assessment that the average 3rd round QB spends only 2 years in the league and then is out, where do you get that from? You might want to go back and do a little research on that because I think you'll find that from 2000 to 2007 there were 12 QBs drafted in the 3rd round. Only Giavanni Carmazzi and David Greene have lasted 2 years or less. The rest are still in the league. And, of them, 7 have started or are starters now. So, that is 83% of them are still in the league and 70% of those are starters or have started in their careers.

Now that we have established that your thinking and assumptions are faulty by looking at the actual facts, we can see that O'Connell has a much greater chance of seeing starts than Cassel did. So it is actually a safe assumption to say that O'Connell's future looks bright, even if he ends up being like Damon Huard.

 

[DaBruinz]

I do see it. Its not relevant. At the same point in their career, Ryan Leif was a much better prospect than either one. Hes an abject failure.


Cassel has already proven hes not typical. O'Connel hasn't.


As to "Better Everything" Absolutely not. Cassel has proven he can start in the NFL. O'Connel hasn't. There are plenty of QBs who have "all the tools" and can't do what Cassel has.

Ryan Leaf didn't have Bill Belichick coaching him. And that is a huge difference.

And, you seriously need to read what is said. Tanked compared O'Connell after 1 year to Cassel after one year. What had Cassel proven after 1 year? That is what you are tripping over. You are trying to compare O'Connell after one year to Cassel after 4 years. That is your fallacy. Not tanked's.

 

[tanked_as_usual]

that's fine.......if it is your prerogative to call o'connell nothing because ryan leaf is a schmuck, so be it.......

the bottom line for me is that after seeing what cassel was for the first 3 years here, and what he was turned into over the course of this season, I have the utmost confidence in the coaching staff to take o'connell and turn him into something even better...........

I'll just leave it to say that cassel made the most of the gift of an opportunity that he got this past season.......suffice it to say, that he would likely be unemployed this next season had brady not gotten hurt........