Jeff Risdon, whoever he is

[SeanBruschi54]

I agree with many of his thoughts on the 1st round. Wow he thinks Brooks Reed falls all the way to round 3 though? I'll be surprised if that happens!

The closer we get to draft day the lower the stock gets on Reed. He looked amazing in combine drills but when scouts watch him on tape they say he vanishes.

 

[Peachhead]

It's where most amateur draftniks would have him if he didn't have long blonde hair.

Exactly. If he gets picked before 40 or so he needs to share his signing bonus with his hair dresser.

I see him frequently get compared to Clay Matthews and of course, that's no coincidence.

 

[Belgian Patriot Fan]

Jeff's been posting stuff like that for a while (I've read his stuff for several years), as far as I can tell he is legit with his sources and does hang out with "those in the know" at the Senior Bowl, Combine, etc. Now - how much of his info is given to him by teams as a headfake to others, that's impossible to know.

I fully agree. I'm reading Risdon's arcticles for a couple of years now and he's definitely legit. Has built up a nice network within the NFL and he knows the game well. Allways a joy to read his weekly articles.


This is an alternative mock draft he posted a month ago, absolutely worth reading ( I can't post the link because I don't have 50 posts on this forum, so I will give the whole mock draft here) :

I had the chance to spend some time with an AFC scout recently. Rather than discuss individual players, he agreed to do an alternating-pick mock draft and provide some commentary. Over the course of about 90 minutes at a restaurant just outside Hobby Airport in Houston late last week, we got through two rounds.

I took the odd numbered picks, in part so the scout could pick for his own team in the 1st round.

Round 1
1. Carolina Panthers: Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama. Scout’s take: “I’ll tell you what makes them go defense here, they don’t have that pick at the top of (round) two. And no team is gonna blow their first pick on quarterbacks two years in a row, not even with a big change. Not gonna happen.”

I still firmly believe Blaine Gabbert is in play, however.

2. Denver Broncos: Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU. Scout’s take: “Best talent available. Look at that defense and find me one guy besides Elvis (Dumervil) that will still be around after next year. They don’t have one guy besides him. They’ve got to take the best playmaker on defense, and that is Patrick Peterson.”

3. Buffalo Bills: Von Miller, LB, Texas A&M. Scout’s take: “I would have gone (Da’Quan) Bowers.”

Both of us think they will use Cam Newton as a smokescreen/trade bait.

4. Cincinnati Bengals: Cam Newton, QB, Auburn. Scout’s take: “I’ll tell you why they take Cam Newton. Mike Brown is no dummy. The second after he takes Cam Newton his phone is gonna ring off the damn hook with people wanting Carson (Palmer). He’s already sold his hardball sh** with Carson. That makes the asking price go up.”

I still believe Julio Jones will be the pick.

5. Arizona Cardinals: Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri. Scout’s take: “No doubt.” Short and sweet. Scout is not a huge fan of Gabbert right now but thinks “he’s as good as Aaron Rodgers when he came out. People forget Rodgers wasn’t close to ready to play back then. Same with this kid.”

If he is indeed the pick here, and if he’s on the board he will be with 100% certainty, Gabbert won’t get the luxury of waiting three years like Rodgers.

6. Cleveland Browns: A.J. Green, WR, Georgia. Scout’s take: “They have to take him, don’t they? Too good to pass on.”

7. San Francisco 49ers: Robert Quinn, DE/OLB, North Carolina. Scout’s take: “Great natural talent. He reminds me a lot of Willie McGinest.”

8. Tennessee Titans: Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois. Scout’s take: I asked him why not Nick Fairley, not as a slight against Liuget but I wondered how the Titans could have Fairley’s college coach on staff and go in another direction at the same position. “He (Tracy Rocker, the aforementioned coach) knows better than anyone that Fairley is gonna wash out quick. He’s already counted all the money he’s gonna make…he came from out of nowhere for a reason. Liuget’s just as good and he’s got a hunger to him.”

9. Dallas Cowboys: Tyron Smith, T, USC. Scout’s take: “I like it. Makes sense for Jerry Jones, going with the big program and the great athlete. This kid is gonna be a hoss for a long time.”

10. Washington Redskins: Jake Locker, QB, Washington. Scout’s take: “I’m going with the thinking that (Skins coach Mike) Shanahan was gonna take him #1 last year. Mike’s stubborn enough to still see it, and he’s arrogant enough to think he’s the guy that can make Locker into Steve Young.”

11. Houston Texans: Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska. Scout’s take: “I like it for Wade Phillips (new Texans DC) if he moves him to safety. They thought Kareem Jackson couldn’t cover! Wait til they see this kid try to turn and run with Andre Johnson in practice. He’ll be at safety by the end of the first week.”

12. Minnesota Vikings: Anthony Castonzo, T, Boston College. Scout’s take: “People piled on Brett (Favre) but that line in front of him was garbage. Hutch (Steve Hutchinson) is done, McKinnie (Bryant, the incumbent LT) is sliding and he wasn’t all that great to begin with. This kid can play right away at guard or tackle.”

13. Detroit Lions: Akeem Ayers, LB, UCLA. Scout’s take: Frequent readers know I’m a Lions lifer, and I admit to reaching for need here. In fact, I was distraught by how the board played out for Detroit here. He reassured me, “Yeah it’s probably a little high for him, but he makes plays. He’s gonna miss some plays too, but he’s a kid that makes sh** happen and they need that. That D-line is so good he can take chances and it ain’t gonna kill ‘em.”

14. St. Louis Rams: Julio Jones, WR, Alabama. Scout’s take: “Billy (GM Billy Devaney) will take about two seconds before sending this pick up. He is perfect for Sam Bradford. Best over-the-middle receiver since Anquan Boldin, but I like that he can get deep too.

15. Miami Dolphins: Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson. Scout’s take: “I don’t know what to make of his knee. I tell you what though, he’d better look perfect when he works out and he’d better do everything. Leave no doubt about it and there’s no way he falls here. No way in hell.”

Scout was not aware if his team was one that failed Bowers medically.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue. Scout’s take: He debated between Kerrigan and Aldon Smith for several minutes. He ultimately went with Kerrigan because “I trust in him more than I trust in Smith. I know Kerrigan can do something besides rush the passer. I don’t know that Aldon Smith can do that.”

17. New England Patriots (from OAK): JJ Watt, DE, Wisconsin. Scout’s take: “This is where he belongs. He’s perfect for Belichick. He’s smart, he’s nasty, he never quits. Bill (Belichick) loves overachievers and that’s what Watt is.”

18. San Diego Chargers: Nate Solder, T, Colorado. Scout’s take: “He’s a classic AJ Smith (Chargers GM) pick. He’s got this incredible potential that’s real hard to ignore, and AJ takes him and then he demands his coaches make it happen. Then when it doesn’t work, AJ passes the buck. I dare you to find me one game tape where this kid actually plays like a first round pick. But I can see why so many people like him. He’s huge and he can move.”

Somewhere, Marty Schottenheimer smiles when he reads this.

19. New York Giants: Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado. Scout’s take: “I like what you said there, (quoting me) ‘he’s the best cover man in this draft before the ball is thrown’. I worry about his attitude but you’re right, the kid can flat-out cover. Tom Coughlin will either make him great or he’ll kill him.”

20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State. Scout’s take: “People need to cut with this bullsh** that he doesn’t go hard every play. It’s B-fu**ing-S. They (the OSU coaches) assigned him to do dirty work a lot because he’s damn good at it. I love that he can hold an edge and tie up the tackle if we ask him to do that. Kerrigan can’t do that like him. Aldon Smith, come on now. Bowers can’t even do it like this kid. I’ll take his 8 sacks over (other players’) 11 any day because he brings so much other stuff to the table. But a lot of people don’t see that.”

I should point out he went on about Heyward for a good five minutes and these are the choice excerpts and not sequential quotes.

21. Kansas City Chiefs: Cameron Jordan, DE, California. Scout’s take: “I don’t think he’ll fall this far. And I think they’re gonna look at a nose before they take another end. I think they’re gonna take (Jonathan) Baldwin here if they can."

22. Indianapolis Colts: Danny Watkins, G/T, Baylor. Scout’s take: “Perfect fit for them. I think he can play right tackle fine enough, but let me tell you this guy is gonna be a great NFL right guard right away.”

23. Philadelphia Eagles: Mike Pouncey, C, Florida. Scout’s take: “I like him better as a guard. He’s doesn’t play as fast as his brother and you need that to be a great center. He’s a better run blocker though, and they need that. I love his legs and feet once he’s engaged, you just can’t stop him from moving you.”

24. New Orleans Saints: Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn. Scout’s take: “Well he obviously ain’t gonna fall this far, but if you go off how he’s handled everything this is where he belongs (speaking of draft slotting).”

25. Seattle Seahawks: Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas. Scout’s take: I had to explain why I think Seattle would take him. My rationale: they have a new offensive coordinator (Darrell Bevell) that is used to working with a ****sure gunslinger with off-field maturity issues (Brett Favre). Scout went from being totally against it to seeing my point and thinking it could happen precisely because of why I thought it might. He would still choose Marvin Austin or Adrian Clayborn here.

 

[Belgian Patriot Fan]

..........

26. Baltimore Ravens: Jonathan Baldwin, WR, Pittsburgh. Scout’s take: “(Ravens GM) Ozzie Newsome isn’t afraid of kids that haven’t grown up quite yet. This kid is a real hoss…they’ve got the environment in place to give him the ass-kicking he needs. Ray Lewis will set him straight and then they’ve got themselves a #1 (wide receiver)."

27. Atlanta Falcons: Justin Houston, DE, Georgia. Scout’s take: “I like him better here (in a 4-3) than out in space in a 30 defense (3-4 front). The thing that makes him a great pass rusher is that he can bull inside or turn it out. You put him standing up, that takes away his bull and he’s not quick enough to live without it.”

28. New England Patriots: Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech. Scout’s take: This evolved into a discussion of Williams vs. Mark Ingram, the presumed #1 RB. He put Williams here because “they have the chain mover already (BenJarvis Green-Ellis). They need the home run hitter and that’s what Williams does. He’s a playmaker and Belichick knows they need those. That’s the luxury of all those picks, they can swing big and not play it safe. Ingram would be the safe pick.”

29. Chicago Bears: Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin. Scout’s take: “I don’t think he’s a good fit there. They need guys that can pass protect and he’s a pure run blocker. (Derek) Sherrod is a lot more of what they need.”

30. New York Jets: Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa. Scout’s take: “I love him as a 5 (technique, or 3-4 DE). Rex (Ryan, Jets coach) can put him in there on either side and let him go…they need him for the run as much as they do the handful of sacks he’s gonna get.”

31. Pittsburgh Steelers: Derek Sherrod, T, Mississippi State. Scout’s take: “(laughs) I think you need to flip this kid and Carimi (my Bears pick). Pittsburgh needs a run blocker as much as they need a pass blocker, and they need a right tackle more than they need a left.”

32. Green Bay Packers: Aldon Smith, OLB, Missouri. Scout’s take: “We see him as a tweener. He’s got that great length but he plays small. Everything is full speed. I’ll tell you who he reminds me of with his skinny legs and the way he plays. Aaron Maybin. This kid is bigger and has more on the ball, but I see a lot of comparison there.”

Round 2

More limited commentary here…

33. New England Patriots (from CAR): Phil Taylor, NT, Baylor. Scout’s take: “You said it awhile back, he’s the next Shaun Rogers. Hell, he could be (Albert) Haynesworth good if he wants it.”

34. Buffalo Bills: Ben Ijalana, T, Villanova. Scout’s take: “The thing he’s got going for him is his length. His arms are so long and he knows how to use his hands already. That’s a good sign for a kid coming from 1-AA…no doubt in my mind he can play tackle in the NFL.”

35. Cincinnati Bengals: Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland. Scout’s take: “You know what’s funny? The guy I see him like the most is Ocho (Chad Ochocinco, err, Johnson). I like him but he’s not a #1.”

36. Denver Broncos: Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina.
37. Cleveland Browns: Muhammad Wilkerson, DE, Temple.
38. Arizona Cardinals: Jabaal Sheard, OLB, Pittsburgh.

39. Tennessee Titans: Colin Kaepernick, QB, Nevada. Scout’s take: “I’d bet they take Andy Dalton over him.”

40. Dallas Cowboys: Davon House, CB, New Mexico State.

41. Washington Redskins: Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama. Scout’s take: He was incredulous that Ingram lasted this long, “way too good to fall this far.” We’ll see…

42. Houston Texans: Jerrel Jernigan, WR, Troy. Scout’s take: “I know you (meaning me) like to compare him to Percy Harvin, but I see a smaller Reggie Bush.”

43. Minnesota Vikings: Brandon Harris, CB, Miami FL.

44. Detroit Lions: Curtis Marsh, CB, Utah State. Scout’s take: He waffled between Marsh and Mason Foster several times before settling on Marsh, a “real good fit for Jimmy (Schwartz, Lions coach). He loves to hit and he’s got great size. He’s not afraid.”

45. San Francisco 49ers: Mikel Leshoure, RB, Illinois.

46. Denver Broncos (from MIA): Jerrard Tarrant, S, Georgia Tech. Scout’s take: “I know some people like him higher than this. If it kicks in for him he’s gonna be a great one. I’ll say this for him, Paul (GT coach Paul Johnson) wouldn’t have let him back on the field (after he missed time with a rape arrest) unless he got his sh** together right then.”

47. St. Louis Rams: Mason Foster, LB, Washington.
48. Oakland Raiders: Leonard Hankerson, WR, Miami FL.
49. Jacksonville Jaguars: Andy Dalton, QB, TCU.
50. San Diego Chargers: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame.

51. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Brooks Reed, OLB, Arizona. Scout’s take: “I was waiting for you to take him. Let me tell you, I have never seen a guy get so much love out of a workout. Watch the tape on this kid, he’s a one-speed edge rusher with bad balance and no leg drive. Just because he looks like Clay Matthews don’t (sic) mean he plays like him. We’ve got a 5th round grade on him.”

52. New York Giants: James Carpenter, T, Alabama.
53. Indianapolis Colts: Drake Nevis, DT, LSU.
54. Philadelphia Eagles: Johnny Patrick, CB, Louisville.

55. Kansas City Chiefs: Christian Ponder, QB, Florida State. Scout’s take: “This is too low for him. Someone will rescue him before he falls this far. He’s probably the most ready (to start right away) Q-B in this draft.”

56. New Orleans Saints: Dontay Moch, LB, Nevada.

57. Seattle Seahawks: Aaron Williams, CB, Texas. Scout’s take: “He’s a guy I would move to safety right away. I don’t like the fit in their scheme, he doesn’t see plays fast enough.”

58. Baltimore Ravens: Sam Acho, LB/DE, Texas.
59. Atlanta Falcons: Marcus Cannon, G/T, TCU.

60. New England Patriots: Rahim Moore, S, UCLA. Scout’s take: “More classic Belichick, take the better-football-player-than-athlete that everyone else downgrades, then beat them over the head with him.”

61. San Diego Chargers (from NYJ): Titus Young, WR, Boise State.

62. Chicago Bears: Kenrick Ellis, DT, Hampton. Scout’s take: “I love the idea of Rod Marinelli teaching this kid how to play. He’s a Pro Bowler every year if he gets it.”

63. Pittsburgh Steelers: Rashad Carmichael, CB, Virginia Tech. Scout’s take: “Forget about him being short. He’s as solid a zone cover guy as anyone I’ve seen lately and he can go get the ball. He’s a Mike Tomlin kind of guy, I love the pick.”

64. Green Bay Packers: Kendall Hunter, RB, Oklahoma State. Scout’s take: “We watched him at the Senior Bowl and you saw it, this kid is real solid. Explosive…they’ll like him in the wide (meaning 1-back, 3-wide with a split TE) passing game. He’s a lot better than the guy they’ve got doing that now (Brandon Jackson). Gotta stay healthy though.”

Two notable guys left off, and why…

--Martez Wilson, LB, Illinois. Scout’s take: “That neck problem (he missed 2009 with a herniated disk in his neck) is a big-time problem. Good player but the risk is too high.”

--Bruce Carter, LB, North Carolina. Scout’s take: “I don’t like the way he got hurt (major knee reconstructive surgery). He’s a kid that was all about being the best athlete, and that might not come back for him. I hope it works out for him, I really do. He’s a good kid and he handled all that sh**storm around him (the UNC suspensions) with real maturity.” I completely agree.

 

[Richard Camembert]

Great find!