Is the assertion that Belichick's drafts have been poor accurate?

[Sciz]

No, the irony is that the defense genius has been less than stellar at drafting defensive players. I think that's undeniable.

Define "less than stellar."

 

[JMarr]

The people screaming about belichik's drafts cherrypikck to make their case because they can't make it if they don't, and they absolutely think they can do better and always tell us over and over who they should have taken an how their choices would have been the right ones, disregarding what they actually ended up with as well as other moves with picks that helped make them great. As for their success and the Lombardi the Patriots won 3 of 10 SB's in the first decade of the century and played in 4-10, it doesn't get better than that and only spoiled miserable fans who can't understand that you cannot win every year think otherwise.

Belichik isn't the problem, Patriot fans with ridiculous expectations are.

The "fans are spoiled by success" meme can put things into perspective, it's also a tired and lazy argument that's about as irritating as some of the more ridiculous anti-Belichick rants you'll see on this board. Your post is the same as all the rest: 3 SBs, best RS winning % of the decade, case closed. Good analysis. Here's my perspective:

In 2004 we became one of the only 3 or 4 "dynasties" in NFL history, after a history mostly riddled with futility, dating back to 1959. And everything pointed to the Pats becoming, without a doubt, THE dynasty of all football dynasties: F the Steelers, Cowgirls and 49ers. Since then:

2005. Awful early playoff exit in Denver.

2006. Indy AFCCG. More disappointing than SB42 IMO given the way we stepped on their throat early. Indy then wins a Super Bowl against one of the most undeserving SB teams in history.

2007. ...

2008. Still could have one it but never got the chance to get in the tournament due to Favre and Mangini.

2009. Ravens make us their b!tch in our own house. Possibly BB's most ill-prepared team ever. Defensive talent had run totally dry by then.

2010. See 2009, only now its the freakin Jets and the Rex Ryan/Mark Sanchez show.

2011. Defense is actually inspiring less confidence than any during the Belichick era.

Looking for answers isn't being spoiled, it's being pissed.

 

[patsfaninpa]

The "fans are spoiled by success" meme can put things into perspective, it's also a tired and lazy argument that's about as irritating as some of the more ridiculous anti-Belichick rants you'll see on this board. Your post is the same as all the rest: 3 SBs, best RS winning % of the decade, case closed. Good analysis. Here's my perspective:

In 2004 we became one of the only 3 or 4 "dynasties" in NFL history, after a history mostly riddled with futility, dating back to 1959. And everything pointed to the Pats becoming, without a doubt, THE dynasty of all football dynasties: F the Steelers, Cowgirls and 49ers. Since then:

2005. Awful early playoff exit in Denver.

"Early? Entered as the 4 seed and lost to the top seed who had a better record than us. Who also beat us in the reg season. We played with Rodney and Light and Koppen that year. Also, T. Bruschi was coming back from his stroke. Lost to the better team my man."

2006. Indy AFCCG. More disappointing than SB42 IMO given the way we stepped on their throat early. Indy then wins a Super Bowl against one of the most undeserving SB teams in history.

" Agree about the AFCCG slightly. BUt, we're a defensive back from falling down to losing to the best team in football that year. San Diego"


2007. ...

2008. Still could have one it but never got the chance to get in the tournament due to Favre and Mangini.

"Child please. We had no chance once TFB went down."

2009. Ravens make us their b!tch in our own house. Possibly BB's most ill-prepared team ever. Defensive talent had run totally dry by then.

"We sucked that year no doubt"

2010. See 2009, only now its the freakin Jets and the Rex Ryan/Mark Sanchez show.

"Head scratching loss for sure. That team lived off of turnovers and didnt commit any. Once they lost that battle. Were ripe for the taking."

2011. Defense is actually inspiring less confidence than any during the Belichick era.

Looking for answers isn't being spoiled, it's being pissed.

Decaff aint all that bad.

 

[MaineMan]

Some of the assertions/assumptions in this thread crack me up.

Dowling played every game but one for 3 1/2 years in his college career, had ONE injury that kept him out for the second half of his senior season, had surgery and recovered sufficiently by the Combine to post:

4.46/40, 1.47/10yd, 19 reps, 38.0" vert, 10'08" brd, 4.26 ss, 6.85 3cone

But he shouldn't have been drafted because of "his injury history"? (BTW, the injury that now has him on IR is totally unrelated to his previous injury).

Also, is anyone here aware of the fact that - in any given week - around 40% of all the players who are inactive due to injury are DBs? People really think that the Pats having "so many" injured DBs is somehow unique? The Rams have had almost as many DBs on IR this season than most teams have PLAYERS on IR.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Some of the assertions/assumptions in this thread crack me up.

Dowling played every game but one for 3 1/2 years in his college career, had ONE injury that kept him out for the second half of his senior season, had surgery and recovered sufficiently by the Combine to post:

4.46/40, 1.47/10yd, 19 reps, 38.0" vert, 10'08" brd, 4.26 ss, 6.85 3cone

But he shouldn't have been drafted because of "his injury history"? (BTW, the injury that now has him on IR is totally unrelated to his previous injury).

Also, is anyone here aware of the fact that - in any given week - around 40% of all the players who are inactive due to injury are DBs? People really think that the Pats having "so many" injured DBs is somehow unique? The Rams have had almost as many DBs on IR this season than most teams have PLAYERS on IR.

Ras-I Dowling*|*Virginia,*CB*:*2011 NFL Draft Scout Player Profile

His scouting report + had him listed as coming of knee, ankle and hamstring injuries which he battled most of the season. He is now out with a hip injury, 4 injuries in a years time, saying he is injury prone seems pretty accurate.

 

[patsfanboy]

Ras-I Dowling*|*Virginia,*CB*:*2011 NFL Draft Scout Player Profile

His scouting report + had him listed as coming of knee, ankle and hamstring injuries which he battled most of the season. He is now out with a hip injury, 4 injuries in a years time, saying he is injury prone seems pretty accurate.

Well, we are always going to be in the bottom of the draft order, so BB gambles on it. He drafts safer picks in the first and gamble with this injured player in the second that has a supposed 1st round grade. Yeah he has quite a few misses but he did nailed on Gronk.

 

[JMarr]

Decaff aint all that bad.

Haha, you're probably right. I thought your post was hilariously to the point until I noticed you had included responses in the text.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Well, we are always going to be in the bottom of the draft order, so BB gambles on it. He drafts safer picks in the first and gamble with this injured player in the second that has a supposed 1st round grade. Yeah he has quite a few misses but he did nailed on Gronk.

I don't know if you can say that is what BB does, other than these two examples. Gronk was a top talent coming off surgery, a calculated risk that worked out great. Picking an injury prone Dowling at # 33 seemed like more of a reach.

 

[Richard Camembert]

I don't know if you can say that is what BB does, other than these two examples. Gronk was a top talent coming off surgery, a calculated risk that worked out great. Picking an injury prone Dowling at # 33 seemed like more of a reach.

Cannon. McKenzie. Wheatley? Mixed bag of results, I'd say.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Cannon. McKenzie. Wheatley? Mixed bag of results, I'd say.

I was referring to the poster who said that BB will "gamble with this injured player in the second that has a supposed 1st round grade."

Cannon was a fifth round pick, McKenzie a 3rd, Wheatley a 2nd. Wheatley was not only a injury risk but a pretty big reach in the 2nd. He was considered a likely 5-7 rounder by many draft sites, not a supposed 1st rounder.

 

[ATippett56]

Wheatley was not only a injury risk but a pretty big reach in the 2nd. He was considered a likely 5-7 rounder by many draft sites, not a supposed 1st rounder.

NFL Draft Scout----Powered By: The Sports Xchange

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

I was referring to the poster who said that BB will "gamble with this injured player in the second that has a supposed 1st round grade."

Cannon was a fifth round pick, McKenzie a 3rd, Wheatley a 2nd. Wheatley was not only a injury risk but a pretty big reach in the 2nd. He was considered a likely 5-7 rounder by many draft sites, not a supposed 1st rounder.

Anquai Boldin was a projected mid 4th rounder and the Cardinals took him near the end of the 2nd round in 2003. 2 picks later, the Giants took Osi Umenyiora, who had a 6th round grade. The Raiders also reached a bit for Nnamdi Asomugha earlier in that draft.

Other reaches from that draft, based on projection:

Robert Mathis
Asante Samuel
Dallas Clark
Lance Briggs

As I said earlier in the thread, I think saying someone is a reach is badly over-used. It's based on everything you've heard from everyone that has nothing to do with the actual drafting of the players. Unless all 31 teams have specifically said they wouldn't have taken a certain player until a certain round, what is the "reach" really based on?

Also, how often during the draft do we see those highly rated prospects fall round after round from where they were expected to go? When they finally are drafted, they're the "steals" of the draft. How many times do some of those players go on to do absolutely nothing in the NFL? It works both ways.

 

[Ivan]

I'm sorry, but this is simply not true, as has been demonstrated time and again. Whether you choose to admit it, or to deny it, the fact is that Belichick has struggled drafting defensively since about 2006. You can rail against the people who point it out all you want, but it's not going to change the facts.

Wow, my mistake, I could have sworn the topic was Belichiks drafting and not just his defensive choices after 2006. Don't know how I could have missed that.

Either way 4 Conference Chamionships and 3 Lombardis in 10 years is still a horrible track record, and given all his sucky drafts it is no wonder they suck so bad. I just don't know how Patriot fans can stand it.

 

[Ivan]

The "fans are spoiled by success" meme can put things into perspective, it's also a tired and lazy argument that's about as irritating as some of the more ridiculous anti-Belichick rants you'll see on this board. Your post is the same as all the rest: 3 SBs, best RS winning % of the decade, case closed. Good analysis. Here's my perspective:

In 2004 we became one of the only 3 or 4 "dynasties" in NFL history, after a history mostly riddled with futility, dating back to 1959. And everything pointed to the Pats becoming, without a doubt, THE dynasty of all football dynasties: F the Steelers, Cowgirls and 49ers. Since then:

2005. Awful early playoff exit in Denver.

2006. Indy AFCCG. More disappointing than SB42 IMO given the way we stepped on their throat early. Indy then wins a Super Bowl against one of the most undeserving SB teams in history.

2007. ...

2008. Still could have one it but never got the chance to get in the tournament due to Favre and Mangini.

2009. Ravens make us their b!tch in our own house. Possibly BB's most ill-prepared team ever. Defensive talent had run totally dry by then.

2010. See 2009, only now its the freakin Jets and the Rex Ryan/Mark Sanchez show.

2011. Defense is actually inspiring less confidence than any during the Belichick era.

Looking for answers isn't being spoiled, it's being pissed.

And being pissed about a team that is in the hunt every year is stupid and spoiled.

 

[Ivan]

Are you in the drama club?

You are a jet fan pretending to be an outraged patriot fan, that's drama at a 3rd grade level.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Anquai Boldin was a projected mid 4th rounder and the Cardinals took him near the end of the 2nd round in 2003. 2 picks later, the Giants took Osi Umenyiora, who had a 6th round grade. The Raiders also reached a bit for Nnamdi Asomugha earlier in that draft.

Other reaches from that draft, based on projection:

Robert Mathis
Asante Samuel
Dallas Clark
Lance Briggs

As I said earlier in the thread, I think saying someone is a reach is badly over-used. It's based on everything you've heard from everyone that has nothing to do with the actual drafting of the players. Unless all 31 teams have specifically said they wouldn't have taken a certain player until a certain round, what is the "reach" really based on?

Also, how often during the draft do we see those highly rated prospects fall round after round from where they were expected to go? When they finally are drafted, they're the "steals" of the draft. How many times do some of those players go on to do absolutely nothing in the NFL? It works both ways.

Context.

Again, it was said in reference to another poster saying "BB drafts safer picks in the first and gamble with this injured player in the second that has a supposed 1st round grade."

Another poster mentioned Wheatley as an example. I said Wheatley never was considered a 1st or 2nd rounder but instead more of a late rounder which would make him a reach as well as an injury risk.

Not sure where you got your info but NFL Draft Scout projections were pretty damn accurate.


Boldin, projected as a 2nd rounder and picked in the 2nd.
Umenyora, projected as a 2nd-3rd rounder, picked in the 2nd.
Asomugha, projected as a 1st-2nd, picked in the 1st.

Mathis, projected as a 4th-5th rounder, picked in the 5th.
Samuel, projected as a 3rd-4th rounder, picked in the 4th.
Clark, projected as a 1st, picked in the 1st.
Briggs, projected as a 3rd rounder, picked in the 3rd.

Oh yeah, Terrance Wheatley, projected as a 5th-7th rounder, picked in the second.

 

[Armchair Quarterback]

Wow, my mistake, I could have sworn the topic was Belichiks drafting and not just his defensive choices after 2006. Don't know how I could have missed that.

Either way 4 Conference Chamionships and 3 Lombardis in 10 years is still a horrible track record, and given all his sucky drafts it is no wonder they suck so bad. I just don't know how Patriot fans can stand it.

Last time I checked, defense was still part of the game. A diminishing part but a part nonetheless.

1 Conference Championship an 0 Lombardi's in 6 years despite having a 21-3 lead in the 2006 AFCCG, A 4 point lead with 2.39 left on a perfect season and a SB championship on the line. 33 points, 234 yards and 4 TDs to Baltimore in the 09 playoffs and a one and done as a #1 seed in 2010 while Mark Sanchez throws 3 TDs and the Pats D gives up 28 points. Chances are they'll go in again as a #1 seed this year and we'll see if the results will be any different this time.

 

[Crazy Patriot Guy]

Context.

Again, it was said in reference to another poster saying "BB drafts safer picks in the first and gamble with this injured player in the second that has a supposed 1st round grade."

Another poster mentioned Wheatley as an example. I said Wheatley never was considered a 1st or 2nd rounder but instead more of a late rounder which would make him a reach as well as an injury risk.

Not sure where you got your info but NFL Draft Scout projections were pretty damn accurate.


Boldin, projected as a 2nd rounder and picked in the 2nd.
Umenyora, projected as a 2nd-3rd rounder, picked in the 2nd.
Asomugha, projected as a 1st-2nd, picked in the 1st.

Mathis, projected as a 4th-5th rounder, picked in the 5th.
Samuel, projected as a 3rd-4th rounder, picked in the 4th.
Clark, projected as a 1st, picked in the 1st.
Briggs, projected as a 3rd rounder, picked in the 3rd.

Oh yeah, Terrance Wheatley, projected as a 5th-7th rounder, picked in the second.

My post wasn't to directly argue your stance on Wheatley but to try to point out the general over-use of the idea of "reaches" by many people.

I used cnnsi.com for the projections. It just shows how different the rankings can be for each team if the draft sites differ that much. I remember after the 06 draft when it was reported that one team had Vince Young graded as a 3rd rounder. I used the example of Tyson Alualu earlier in the thread. This board, along with most draft sites, had him rated as a 2nd rounder. The Jaguars thought enough of him to use the #10 pick.

Using NFL Draft Scout, look at some of these projections:

Logan Mankins: 3rd round
Sebastian Vollmer: 3rd-4th round
Stephen Gostkowski: 7th round
Stevan Ridley: 5th-6th round

On the flip side:

Does anyone care that Darius Butler had a 1st round grade and we got him in the 2nd round? Look at the 2006 draft alone. Chad Jackson was a steal at #36 overall. We get 4th round graded Jeremy Mincey in the 6th. We got 4th round graded Le Kevin Smith later in that same 6th round. Late in the 7th round, we got 5th round graded Willie Andrews. Don't forget 2nd-3rd round graded Ryan O'Callaghan in the 5th.

My point is no one seems to care if a guy was drafted too high if they pan out. That player is only a reach when he doesn't. No one seems to care about the tremendous value the 2006 draft brought us because our kicker is all that remains. Again, IMO, a player either pans out or he doesn't. I think people put WAAAAY too much emphasis on pre-draft ratings. Obviously, it's all we have to go on so it's going to matter to us. However, it shouldn't be such a critical issue if a player fails.

 

[Coach42]

Really, again as I stated earlier the only real argument can be based on the teams performance. By that standard this team is as good or better than any other in the league. Period.

 

[JMarr]

And being pissed about a team that is in the hunt every year is stupid and spoiled.

The one thing that the "Pats fans are too spoiled" crowd misses is that as long as the Pats have BB and a healthy Brady, they are going to be "in the hunt" every season, period.

We will return to mediocrity or worse soon enough when BB and Brady are gone--that's the whole point. This is one of the rare cases where short term thinking actually makes sense when it comes to drafting, among other things. There is probably no other team you can say that about.