Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb
FTWilliams, that may have been true 20 years ago, but what has happened in the past 10 years? In the salary cap era, high QB draft picks are overrated, overpaid, and eat up a disproportionate share of the cap space.
Four of the last 10 Super Bowls were won by first round QBs.
In recent years, the drafts have been devoid of a lot of first round QB talent. Guys like Alex Smith, Aaron Rogers, Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, etc. get drafted in the first round not because they are some of the best of a weak QB class which catapults them into the first round. There would be years that some of these guys wouldn't be even second round picks or even potentially not even first day picks. QB is one position where a very average QB prospect can get propelled into the first round because of lack of first round talent at the position. Even then, most of the years only one or two QBs get drafted in the first round in many years.
You also have to take into consideration that most QBs take years before they get to their peak and many of the greatest QBs of all time didn't win Super Bowls overnight. Elway didn't win one until the end of his career. Steve Young was in the league for nearly a decade before he won one. Manning took eight years or so to win a Super Bowl. So guys who were drafted within the last five years or so have plenty of chances unless they have been cut or relegated to back ups.
I also think this stat is subjective. As I said, four of the last ten Super Bowls were won by first round QBs. Three of the other seven were won by future Hall of Fame QB in Brady and one of the other ones was won by League MVP Kurt Warner. The other two were won by journeymen average QBs in Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer. So the fact of the matter is that in the last ten years, only 7 QBs have won Super Bowls and four of them were first round picks.
And let's not forget that QBs being drafted in the first round are expected to produce right out of the gate. In year's past, even first round QBs would spend a year or two on the bench learning the position. Drafting a QB is an investment in the future, not an immediate impact move. For the most part, first round QBs are supposed to be starters by the end of their first year. I think a lot of potentially great QBs have ruined their careers because they were tossed into the fire too soon before they could build up their skills. I think that's why David Carr's career is such a mess.
I think the QB position has been pretty so-so coming out of the draft over the last decade. There haven't been any 1983 type drafts in the last decade (granted how many drafts have produced 3 Hall of Fame QBs in the first round).
I do think that drafting a QB in the first round is generally overrated. But that is because I feel that a lot of QBs that are taken in the first round are taken not because they deserve to be taken where they are taken, but that there is no one else.