In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Combined

[maverick4]

One was Peyton Manning, and the other was Ben Roethlisberger.

http://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/1290730/detail.html

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Are QB's and the passing game overhyped?

 

[bradmahn]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

One was Peyton Manning, and the other was Charlie Batch (who was a BACKUP on Pittsburgh's superbowl team).

http://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/1290730/detail.html

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Are QB's and the passing game overhyped?

No, I think QB's in the first round are overhyped.

 

[maverick4]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

Correction: The other QB was Ben R., not Batch (who was a backup for Pittsburgh and thus doesn't count according to the article)

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

That is a little selective statistics going on there. In the last ten years, Brady has won 3 of the ten SB in question. Two other SBs were won almost entirley by the defense (Baltimore & Tampa).

Look back twenty years and then you have Aikman (#1 overall) with three wins Elway (#1 overall) with two wins. Steve Young (Supplemental due only to the old USFL) would have been a 1st rounder. Jim Kelly (1st rounder) made it to the SB 4 times. Bledsoe et al. Phils Simms (1 SB, 1 on IR) was a 1st rounder. Marino 1st rounder,

Also look at the teams that have lost SB because of bad QBs. Sexy Rexy's performance was only the second worst in SB history compared to Neil O'Donnell's personally handing Dallas their last SB.

Having a high draft pick as your QB, absolutely does not guarenntee you anything. But how many people here gave the Bears any chance of beating the Colts (or the Pats or Bolts for that matter) with Grossman at the helm?

 

[maverick4]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

FTWilliams, that may have been true 20 years ago, but what has happened in the past 10 years? In the salary cap era, high QB draft picks are overrated, overpaid, and eat up a disproportionate share of the cap space.

 

[workhorse]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

FTWilliams, that may have been true 20 years ago, but what has happened in the past 10 years? In the salary cap era, high QB draft picks are overrated, overpaid, and eat up a disproportionate share of the cap space.

Well you could say that it's the recent trend. The past two years only teams with QBs picked in the 1st round have won a Super Bowl.

 

[dhamz]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

Are QB's and the passing game overhyped?

If you want to make the point that teams are reaching on draft day in hopes of finding a great QB, you may have a point. But taking that point and calling QBs overhyped is a huge leap.

The clear cut best two QBs in the game have won 4 of the last 6 Super Bowls - this decade is hardly showing a trend of great QBs not being important to winning.

 

[RayClay]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

Well you could say that it's the recent trend. The past two years only teams with QBs picked in the 1st round have won a Super Bowl.

hee hee.:rocker:


I don't have the stats, but I bet QBs drafted in the 6th round have had the most success in this entire century.

 

[SamBamsFan]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

I think a more accurate way of looking @ this would to go back over the last 10 Super Bowls & the winning Quarterback (since 5 years of developement was previously considered the standard). If you do this you include Elway & Dilfer, and 5 of the past 10 Super Bowls were won with 1st round QB's.

 

[MDD]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

That is a little selective statistics going on there. In the last ten years, Brady has won 3 of the ten SB in question. Two other SBs were won almost entirley by the defense (Baltimore & Tampa).

Look back twenty years and then you have Aikman (#1 overall) with three wins Elway (#1 overall) with two wins. Steve Young (Supplemental due only to the old USFL) would have been a 1st rounder. Jim Kelly (1st rounder) made it to the SB 4 times. Bledsoe et al. Phils Simms (1 SB, 1 on IR) was a 1st rounder. Marino 1st rounder,

Also look at the teams that have lost SB because of bad QBs. Sexy Rexy's performance was only the second worst in SB history compared to Neil O'Donnell's personally handing Dallas their last SB.

Having a high draft pick as your QB, absolutely does not guarenntee you anything. But how many people here gave the Bears any chance of beating the Colts (or the Pats or Bolts for that matter) with Grossman at the helm?

I don't quite get your point, in that Grossman was also a first rounder.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

Well you could say that it's the recent trend. The past two years only teams with QBs picked in the 1st round have won a Super Bowl.

Actually in the past two of the last 10 years we've seen a team win in spite of drafting a QB in the first round (Ben) and we've seen a team win 9 years after drafting a QB in the first round (Peyton).

Although in 6 of the last 10 years we've seen a team win three superbowls immediately after kicking a #1 draft pick to the curb in favor of a #199.

The NFL continues to struggle in the information age with evaluation of talent at the position. All the measurables in the world don't add up to a hill of beans if you are absent the intangibles. And all too often guys drafted in the first come into the league with an attitude that makes them difficult to effectively coach because they've gotten that far on sheer raw talent dominating against college competition much of which will be moving along to pushing a pencil if not flipping burgers. And add to the equation the teams who have drafted them have more often than not been struggling to get themselves in that position of need and often struggle financially in the aftermath when faced with the problem of still having to build a better team around them to prop them up.

 

[JoeSixPat]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

You can use statistics to prove anything you want.

90% of all people know that.

 

[RayClay]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

You can use statistics to prove anything you want.

90% of all people know that.

Did you know that 10% of people will believe anything that has statistics in it?

 

[dhamz]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

Actually in the past two of the last 10 years we've seen a team win in spite of drafting a QB in the first round (Ben) and we've seen a team win 9 years after drafting a QB in the first round (Peyton).

If you want to use just the Super Bowl, you could make that statement with Roethlisberger. If you want to look at his performance in the entire regular season and the 3 preceeding playoff games it is hard for me to see any way that Pittsburgh would have been anywhere near the the Super Bowl without him.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

If you want to use just the Super Bowl, you could make that statement with Roethlisberger. If you want to look at his performance in the entire regular season and the 3 preceeding playoff games it is hard for me to see any way that Pittsburgh would have been anywhere near the the Super Bowl without him.

As I recall he was having a rather pedestrian season when he was on the field. Batch was injured as well or they might not have had to crawl into the playoffs as it was. It was the running game that sustained them. Ben didn't perform exceptionally well until the playoffs. But then in the superbowl he was nothing short of abyssmal. Worst QB rating (22.6) for a winning QB in history and including a rushing TD that never really happened.

 

[dhamz]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

As I recall he was having a rather pedestrian season when he was on the field. Batch was injured as well or they might not have had to crawl into the playoffs as it was. It was the running game that sustained them. Ben didn't perform exceptionally well until the playoffs. But then in the superbowl he was nothing short of abyssmal. Worst QB rating (22.6) for a winning QB in history and including a rushing TD that never really happened.

I'd say he had a pretty good regular season - 17Tds vs 9 ints, 9 Yards per attmept, QB rating of 98. They were only 2-2 when he was out, 9-3 when he played. There is a perception that they snuck into the playoffs because of what their seed was but that said much more about how good the AFC was than it did about the Steelers. They were 11-5.

I would certainly never put Ben's performance in that year in an MVP/HOF or even Pro Bowl class but I disagree with any notion that they won in spite of him as the Ravens did in spite of Dilfer or the Giants did in spite of Hostetler, etc. There is no question he was dreadful in the Super Bowl. There is also no question that the Super Bowl in recent years has been nothing more than a mismatch of the Varisty against the JV. The championship is won in the AFC playoffs and he was very good during those games.

I don't think there is any way they win their 3 road playoff games (at Cincy, at Indy, at Denver) with just anyone else at QB or if he didn't play really well in all 3 of those games.

 

[SkiHound]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

QBs selected early in the draft often go to relatively bad teams and have unrealistic expectactions to perform immediately. Generally takes a few years for QBs to grow into the pro game. Elway struggled a whole lot his first year. Early in his career, Peyton Manning didn't look anything like the QB he's become. I think Eli Manning will become a good QB, but wouldn't he have been better off spending most of his first year or two learning the game as a backup? And does anybody really think that any first year QB is would have a good year if drafted by a team like Oakland?

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

I'd say he had a pretty good regular season - 17Tds vs 9 ints, 9 Yards per attmept, QB rating of 98. They were only 2-2 when he was out, 9-3 when he played. There is a perception that they snuck into the playoffs because of what their seed was but that said much more about how good the AFC was than it did about the Steelers. They were 11-5.

I would certainly never put Ben's performance in that year in an MVP/HOF or even Pro Bowl class but I disagree with any notion that they won in spite of him as the Ravens did in spite of Dilfer or the Giants did in spite of Hostetler, etc. There is no question he was dreadful in the Super Bowl. There is also no question that the Super Bowl in recent years has been nothing more than a mismatch of the Varisty against the JV. The championship is won in the AFC playoffs and he was very good during those games.

I don't think there is any way they win their 3 road playoff games (at Cincy, at Indy, at Denver) with just anyone else at QB or if he didn't play really well in all 3 of those games.

QB rating can be deceiving. Ben averaged around 14 attempts per game including a lone game high of 40+ attempts but only 5 games in which he attempted 20 or more passes. Comparatively Brady averaged over 35 attempts per game that season. Ben was also sacked once in every 11.7 attempts vs. Brady sacked once in every 30 attempts. I guess you could say Ben was relatively efficient for the most part when not injured that season, but that's about it. He was abyssmal in their last game of the season (34.1 QB rating 7/16 43% completion 0TD 2INT but 1 rushing TD) where they deperately needed a win and fortunately they found themselves facing the Lions.

Ben plays best when the expectation is the least. Once that perception changes he struggles. And that was before the face plant.

I guarantee you that team wins in Cincy, Indy and Denver with at least one QB I can think of behind center. And possibly with several others if I gave it some thought.

BTW Eli Manning is not one of them. One more year with Coughlin (and minus Tiki to boot) and Eli will be toast. Perhaps he'd have fared better in another system, like SD, but Archie sealed his fate on draft day. He's not mentally equipped to overcome the hole that Daddy dug him into.

 

[Rob0729]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

FTWilliams, that may have been true 20 years ago, but what has happened in the past 10 years? In the salary cap era, high QB draft picks are overrated, overpaid, and eat up a disproportionate share of the cap space.

Four of the last 10 Super Bowls were won by first round QBs.

In recent years, the drafts have been devoid of a lot of first round QB talent. Guys like Alex Smith, Aaron Rogers, Kyle Boller, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, etc. get drafted in the first round not because they are some of the best of a weak QB class which catapults them into the first round. There would be years that some of these guys wouldn't be even second round picks or even potentially not even first day picks. QB is one position where a very average QB prospect can get propelled into the first round because of lack of first round talent at the position. Even then, most of the years only one or two QBs get drafted in the first round in many years.

You also have to take into consideration that most QBs take years before they get to their peak and many of the greatest QBs of all time didn't win Super Bowls overnight. Elway didn't win one until the end of his career. Steve Young was in the league for nearly a decade before he won one. Manning took eight years or so to win a Super Bowl. So guys who were drafted within the last five years or so have plenty of chances unless they have been cut or relegated to back ups.

I also think this stat is subjective. As I said, four of the last ten Super Bowls were won by first round QBs. Three of the other seven were won by future Hall of Fame QB in Brady and one of the other ones was won by League MVP Kurt Warner. The other two were won by journeymen average QBs in Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer. So the fact of the matter is that in the last ten years, only 7 QBs have won Super Bowls and four of them were first round picks.

And let's not forget that QBs being drafted in the first round are expected to produce right out of the gate. In year's past, even first round QBs would spend a year or two on the bench learning the position. Drafting a QB is an investment in the future, not an immediate impact move. For the most part, first round QBs are supposed to be starters by the end of their first year. I think a lot of potentially great QBs have ruined their careers because they were tossed into the fire too soon before they could build up their skills. I think that's why David Carr's career is such a mess.

I think the QB position has been pretty so-so coming out of the draft over the last decade. There haven't been any 1983 type drafts in the last decade (granted how many drafts have produced 3 Hall of Fame QBs in the first round).

I do think that drafting a QB in the first round is generally overrated. But that is because I feel that a lot of QBs that are taken in the first round are taken not because they deserve to be taken where they are taken, but that there is no one else.

 

[dhamz]

Re: In Past 10 Yrs, the 34 QB's Selected in 1st Two Rounds Have Won 2 Superbowls Comb

I guarantee you that team wins in Cincy, Indy and Denver with at least one QB I can think of behind center. And possibly with several others if I gave it some thought.

Doesn't that very sentence disprove your point that they won in spite of him? You can think of one QB and possibly several others with whom Pitt wins those 3 games. If the QB is a big part of 3 road playoff wins, the team didn't win in spite of him.