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If Lynch Is There at 28...

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by mavfan2390, Mar 26, 2007.

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  1. mavfan2390

    mavfan2390 Rookie

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    Do you take him? Do you take him at 24?

    We're going to assume that Chris Houston, Aaron Ross, etc., are also still on the board
  2. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    Yes, but he will be long gone. Even at 24 he is a great bargain and I would take him even if Maroney is 100% healthy.

    Edit - IMO - I am not a fan of round 1 RB unless you are picking in the top 10 but I see Lynch as a better prospect than Maroney (better speed, short and compact is a better build for a RB and he is a better receiver). You can never have enough RBs, the position always gets banged up.
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2007
  3. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    there is no guarantee he'll be gone before 24, or 28. I think the chance of him being around at 24 is better than his chances of being around at 28, though. There has been some wispers going around that Lynch could fall down the board a bit, and I personally think this could happen. If Patrick Willis is gone (likely) I'd grab Lynch at 24 without thinking.

    Then I would trade 28 for GB's second, third, and 5th round picks. 28th overall is worth 660 points, and picks 47+78+148 (there 2nd, 3rd, and 5th) are worth 662.2 points total.

    NE would then have (after comps) one 1st, one 2nd, two 3rds, one 4th, two 5ths, four 6th, and one seventh round pick.

    You could trade those two sixth, and that fifth for someones 4th rounder, if you wanted and you would have this (1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5-comp, 6-comp, 6-comp, 7-comp)
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2007
  4. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    No. There's Adrian Peterson, and there's everybody else. There is some good value to be had in later rounds for all your RB needs...Darius Walker if you want all purpose, DeShaun Wynn for a hammer with deceptive agility, Garrett Wolfe for a shifty home run threat, Kolby Smith for a workhorse with low mileage....
  5. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    I'd take these RB's:
    Brandon Jackson (all purpose)
    Lorenzo Booker (shifting home run threat/third down back/WR)
    Dwayne Wright (Solid work horse, who breaks a lot of tackles)
    DeShaun Wynn (Same as your description)
    Michael Bush (With his second surgery he could fall down the board, and end up being a late rund pick. If he returns to form you got the steal of the draft. If his injury ends up ending his career you didn't spend anything more than a late round pick.)
    Chris Henry (Could be a work horse/hammer with the speed and agility to break it 60 yards. Unexperienced, but that also means low mileage on the tires.)
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2007
  6. Fantasic4x50x54x59x55

    Fantasic4x50x54x59x55 Rookie

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    honestly it depends who is on the board..who has the most value at the time? Is Willis or Nelson available? Those guys are much more valuable to the pats than Lynch could be.
  7. hobbsownscoles

    hobbsownscoles Rookie

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    I dont know about that they are both about 5'11 and 217 coming out of college and maroney is about 220-225 now and both run almost identical 40 times at around 4.47 and maroney is more elusive and I've read scouting reports on Lynch that one of his weaknesses is his receiving skills
  8. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    You are right, they are almost the same size. Maroney is a little taller but not much, for some reason I thought Lynch was around 5'9.5 - 5'10.

    I will still stick with Lynch as a better receiver, from NFL Draft Scout "...Has soft, natural hands and does a good job of catching the ball outside his frame"

    Lets throw all that away, the more you look the more the are almost exactly the same in virtually every category. So for the sake of arguement lets call them a wash.

    If Lynch is available at 24 and for the sake of arguement he is every bit as good as Maroney would you take him?

    I would, immediately we would have one of the best tandems in the league.
  9. patsfan55

    patsfan55 Rookie

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    personally, id take him at 24
    unless reggie nelson is there
  10. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    Lynch has very good receiving skills, which is part of the reason I like him so much. Seriously, I'd like the see a scouting report that says "his receiving skills are a weakness", if so that scout was sleeping on the job. Can you give me the link?

    Watch this (Lynch as a freshmen, pay attention to the catches):
    http://youtube.com/watch?v=u954RitQV2Y

    Watch these 2005 Highlights:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agiNBv_cl5o

    Watch this one from 2006, where he displays WR receiving skill:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxwFmss2EwA

    Emagine Lynch and Maroney in the same backfield? With his dual threat running and Receiving you probably wouldn't have to draft a 3rd down RB to replace Faulk (in the future), and you would have a serious sick two headed backfield.
  11. hobbsownscoles

    hobbsownscoles Rookie

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    http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/scoutingreports/rb/marshawnlynch.html

    "Is not a great receiver and did not get a lot of reps in college"
  12. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    LOL! I've already b*tched about that guy, so I should have figured it'd be him. I've been trying to tell people they are better off getting their info elsewhere.

    Seriously watch those 2006 highlights and tell me he's not a good receiver.
    Last edited: Mar 26, 2007
  13. hobbsownscoles

    hobbsownscoles Rookie

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    My bad thats the only site i really check besides footballsfuture
  14. stinkypete

    stinkypete Rookie

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    No F'n way. If Lynch is there at #24 you trade the pick. Some team desperate for a RB (Buffalo, Green Bay, Tennesee) will overpay for him, you likely get a 2007 value pick plus a 2008 day one pick.
  15. chowder

    chowder Rookie

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    I'd be ecstatic to get Lynch at 24 or 28. I am a Cal fan and alumnus too and watched this kid play alot. He is a game changer and runs tough like Maroney did early in the season. He's also got good character and even if Maroney comes back 100%, i think it's wise to have 2 outstanding RBs on the team to keep each other fresh or in case one gets injured, etc. Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, etc could adequately start for a few games if Maroney can't come back immediately but I wouldn't feel comfortable with any of our other current RBs as a starter long term.

    I'd rather get Lynch in Rd one and fill in the other roster spots with guys like Weddle, Piscatelli, DeOssie later than to get a DB or LB in the first and settle for one of the other RBs later. This draft is deep in DBs and LBs but only Peterson and Lynch are really game changing RBs (and maybe Leonard) in this draft IMHO.
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2007
  16. Seymour93

    Seymour93 Rookie

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    FWIW, in 36 games for the Gophers, Maroney caught 21 balls for 198 yards. Lynch, meanwhile, had 68 receptions for 600 yards in 35 games for Cal. Jeff Tedford's offense is more pass-happy mind you.
  17. borisman

    borisman Rookie

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    Marshawn Lynch = Marshall Faulk.

    BOOK IT!!
  18. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey


    I think the idea behind a RB tandem is to have two dissimilar styles. If these two are as carbon copies as you say, the only real value is injury insurance.
  19. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    The value would be in having two RB's who are interchangable, to a degree. When one needs a breather there is no dropoff in talent, and with Lynch's catching ability the defense would have to play him differently. Also, you could have them both on the field at the same time. Lynch lines up at WR sometimes, and can be an effective long ball threat. Plus, I think he runs a little better between the tackles, so they are somewhat different.

    With them both on the field at the same time you could do so many different things. Really this would be a very hard offense to defense.

    Personally I like the two headed backfield, and think it is much better than having one back take all the punishment, then bring a backup who isn't as good when he needs a breather.

    If there isn't anybody really good at CB, S, LB on the board at 24 NE should take Lynch. Also, with Lynch on the roster NE wouldn't have to draft Faulk's eventual replacement, since Lynch can fill that role as well.
  20. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    But you're advocating spending first round salaries on two part-time players. That's not going to fly. Too much money in one position that really is fungible behind a good offensive line.
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2007
  21. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    They would be more than part time players. As I said before you could use Lynch in a lot of different ways. Also, it would cost less for Maroney and Lynch, than it did for Dillon and Maroney, so that point is invalid.
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2007
  22. TealSox

    TealSox Guest

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    I spoke with a friend about Lynch a couple years ago. She was a trainer on the football team and dealt mostly with the running backs. While I was talking about JJ Arrington, she was raving about this guy named Lynch and how he has so much athletic skill that he would do the craziest things while on the field and waiting to get his reps (ie, doing back flips on the sideline).

    She went on about how the guy was so talented that he amazed everyone, but he always acted like a thug. You can see it now with this "grill" and his dreads. Honestly, the guy reminds me of Edgerrien James and there is nothing wrong with that. I just question his wannabe thug mentality.

    Do the Pats need that?
  23. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    1. What in BBs history suggest that they'll do that? Who are you going to sit? Watson? Stallworth? Another WR or TE? If BB wanted to run that kind of offense more often than a couple of times a year, he had the perfect back to do it with in Faulk.

    2. Come on. Dillon's not here anymore. Maroney and Dillon shared the backfield for one year. Maroney and Lynch are going to have 5 year 1st-round contracts running concurrently. Dillon's contract was fairly cheap for a proven player.
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2007
  24. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world to have 2 quality RBs, the whole discussion reminds me of the start of last years Red Sox season "What are we going to do with 6 quality starting pitchers?"

    1) Watson and Graham is a good comparison. Watson was drafted with the second pick in round 1, having the luxury pick made Watson a viable option at 32 even though he wasn't even the highest rated TE (Troupe was I believe). Graham was a young starter with potential (much like Maroney) he also couldn't stay on the field (much like Maroney).

    2) The money is cheap, Maroney signed a 5 year 8.75 million dollar contract , less than $2M per season.

    At this point Maroney has not proven he can handle the NFL load, if you hit the jackpot and they both can play then the team has a very high class problem of getting them touches. The exact opposite of last season when at the end of the year Heath Evans was the only option at RB because everyone was else was banged up.


    ...Contract details....
    Maroney signed a five-year deal worth a total of $8.735 million in August, 2006, according to the NFLPA. $6.13 million of the contract is guaranteed. Easily-obtained incentives could increase that amount to $6.2 million.
  25. dryheat44

    dryheat44 Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    I understand the Patriots can afford it. I just can't see them paying two first round running backs for multiple years when only one is going to be on the field at a time 95% of the time, and neglecting other positions where you can play more than one at a time (like tight end, or defensive end) and improve the team. Who spends a #1 pick on a backup?

    Really, drafting Marshawn Lynch at 24 makes as much sense as drafting Drew Stanton at 28.

    I'm not against picking up a quality RB to team with Maroney, but not in the first round.
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2007
  26. dhamz

    dhamz Rookie

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    Don't really see the comparison - unless you think the Pats are going to start running a 2 halfback offense like they run a 2 TE offense. Both Watson and Graham projected as starters over the life of their rookie contracts. Another 1st round RB would mean both RBs would project as part time players over the life of their contract.
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2007
  27. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    True, but they didn't run 2 TE sets every play. Someone out there may have the breakdown but it was likely around 50-60%. Leaving one of them off the field 40-50% of the time, not to mention the games that they missed because of injury.

    Last year the Patriots ran the ball about 500 times (499) 6th most in the NFL. A breakdown of:
    Maroney 250 touches = 1100 yards
    Lynch - 150 touches = 600 yards
    The rest of the scrubs Morris, Faulk, Evans - 100 touches = 400 yards

    2000 yards give or take, about the exact same number as 06 (1969. 12th in NFL)

    Very high class problem to have, it could even be conceivable that Lynch beats Faulk outright and becomes the primary 3rd down back. Given the high injury rate and lack of credible talent behind Maroney (plus question marks around his durability) drafting Lynch at 24 is not a bad move. Most ratings have him as top 15 so it is also a good value pick.

    I am also confused, everyone was going bonkers about the potential of drafting Carriker (I move I agree with) even though he would at best be the 3rd option for the next 2 years. Yet, the idea of adding a second quality RB is being dismissed outright. A 2nd RB has about the same impact as a 3rd DE and both positions have a high injury risk so I don't really see that much of a difference in the two scenarios.
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2007
  28. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    Yea, I think some people are missing the point. Lynch has good receiving skills, so he would not only be sharing carries with Maroney, but he would also replace Faulk as the third down back, within the next few years.

    Seriously, Faulk is on his way to being done, and those who don't see it are completely delusional. I'll take Maroney, Lynch, and Morris over Maroney Morris, and Faulk any day of the week.

    Also, it seems funny people would be pushing for an OG, or Carriker, when NE already has good OG's, and great DE's, especially when those same people don't want to add a game changing RB?

    Mind you Lynch is not my first option, he might not be there, and I could see them going other directions first, but adding Lynch is no less valid than drafting Grubbs, or anyone else who plays at a position NE doesn't really need help at.
  29. hobbsownscoles

    hobbsownscoles Rookie

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    Why don't we just draft a position of need then
  30. sebman2112

    sebman2112 Rookie

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    Haha, try suggesting that and ten people will say "NE is not going to draft a S, CB, or LB in the first" :)

    No, it seems some people would rather draft a WR, OG, or DE...

    They do have ten picks right? I mean, they could draft LB's, S's, CB's, and RB's early and still have picks to spend on other positions, right?
    Last edited: Mar 27, 2007
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