Welcome to PatsFans.com

Idle thoughts.....California dreamin'

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by patfanken, Oct 23, 2010.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2005
    Messages:
    5,795
    Likes Received:
    402
    Ratings:
    +697 / 17 / -8

    #91 Jersey

    As the team wings west this evening, I can't help feeling a wave of contentment knowing the Yankees were getting trounced by the Texans. I hope those front running Yankee fans will spend the next 5 months with the lasting memory of Alex Rodrigues watching strike 3 go by without taking the bat off his shoulder for the final out of the game.......ahhhhhhh :D

    1.The SD game is been called a "trap game" by some of the media, who still don't get it. Somehow they think that just because the Pats are 4-1 and the Chargers are 2-4 that we are somehow twice as good as they are. They don't understand that EVERYONE in the league has lots of good players. That everyone can beat anyone on a given Sunday. That the margin of victory is very thin each and every week.

    I heard a stat today. I can't remember where exactly, but it really struck home the point that SD is a VERY GOOD team. Someone noted that in the superbowl era, several teams have had periods when they were they led the league in BOTH total offense and defense at the same time, just like SD is doing now. What was interesting was the fact that those teams had a combined record of something ridiculous like 45-4 during that time.

    So how can SD be 2-4? Good question, Simple answer - special teams and turn overs. What has happened to SD could happen to the best of teams if they had the same breakdowns. They have given up 30 points this season JUST through bad special teams play. They have had several brutal turn overs in their opponents red zone. Lots of yds, and nothing to show for it.(#1 in yds, #19 in points) Yet while they won BOTH their home games by over 25 points, they have lost all their games by 7 points or less....all on the road. The truth is that it wouldn't take much to have turned that record around.

    If we have learned anything in our years of watching this league, we should have learned by now that EVERY match up is its own entity. That what happened last week will have very little impact on what happens THIS week. So no one should be the least surprised if SD's special teams are fine, and they don't turn the ball over in our red zone.

    So this isn't a "trap game". Quite the reverse, its a game where clearly two very good teams are going to be on the field come Sunday, and the team that executes its game plan more consistently, and makes more "big plays" will win the game....just like every other game during the long NFL season.

    Now at this point, there is a part of me who wants to smack me in the mouth for spending this much time to state the obvious, but still there are many here who too often go from mad hubris to wild panic based on a single result....one snap shot in a long season.

    When you look at the schedule only Cleveland and Buffalo look like teams that you can "count on" winning (sorta like the 12-1 team that went down to Miami to play a one win Dolphins team in 2004 :rolleyes: ) but you know what I mean. In the NFL there are games you can win, and a even a few that you SHOULD win, but there are no games where the other team can't win, if you don't play reasonably well.

    For this game. I put this in the catagory of this is a game that we CAN win. For SD, this is a game that they not only should win, but MUST win.

    2. The most significant stat that I got from last week's game, was the fact we held the Ravens offense to 2 first downs in their last FIVE possessions. So for about 20 minutes this season we saw an actual shutdown, dominant, Patriot Defense. Well its a start, and that's the good news, because it was about 20 minutes more than we thought we would see at this point. ;)

    3. The bad news is that this VERY young defense is going to see the best QB its seen so far, and maybe the best they will see for the rest of the season. This is an offense that ISN'T going to settle for dinks and dunks. This is an offense designed to find the holes in zone defenses 12-18 yds down field and with Nene, Crayton and Gates a formidable 3some as targets. Almost as good as the Ravens receivers, but with a much better QB.

    4. People here know I'm not much of a stat guy. I like them, but I'd much rather have SOMEONE ELSE do the looking ;). However on occasion I do go to NFL.com to check on something and I noticed a few things that I thought interesting, so I thought I'd share.

    a. Everyone one knows that we are a mainly a passing team, yet only 54% of our plays are passes
    b. Everyone knows we need a top notch runner, and what kind of running attack can we have when your 2 main targets are BOTH undersized UDFAs with very weird names. Yet there are 20 other teams in the league that have WORSE running attacks right now.
    c. AND we are averaging a pretty gaudy 4.4 ypc :eek:
    d. Tom Brady is a pretty pedestrian #16 in passing yds, but there are 20 QBs who have had more attempts....many more. Brady has had 166 attempts, 13 other QBs have had over 200, including Peyton Manning who has over 250
    e.But if you think Tom needs an ego boost, he DOES have the 3rd best QB rating, behind only Peyton and Philip Rivers :eek: Damned that hail Mary pick at the end of the half (and it killed my FF team as well).

    5. The SD defense is #1 as well. They are tied for 2nd in sacks with just over double the 10 sacks the Pats have managed. They have 2 very good corners and lead the league with allowing only an average of 166 ypg. Only 91 rushing. They have also allowed only 21 points per game, compared to our 30.6 (OUCH)

    6. That last stat hurt, especially when you consider that last year's "sorry defense" allowed only 17.8 ppg Maybe Lee Boddin was better than we thought. That 30.6 ppg stat can't start coming down soon enough to suit me.

    7.Now I know up until now I have presented a pretty gloom and doom series of factoids and observations, but I do believe this team is capable of beating SD. I certainly wouldn't be in the least surprised.....one way....or the other.

    8 I think I would be remiss if I didn't mention the hot topic of the week, the stricter enforcement of the tackling rules. 30+ years ago I taught players to put their face masks into the chests of the ball carrier, roll your hips, wrap and lift. Like most coaches of the day, the cardinal sin was to put your head down and not see what you are hitting. It not only put your head and neck into a dangerous position, you were much more likely to miss the damned tackle.

    I have been on record for years decrying the poor tackling techniques in the NFL, which by and large seems to be simply to lower your head, throw your body at the ball carrier and hope for the best. Given the poor technique and increased violence of the collisions, I'm surprised more players haven't been seriously hurt.

    I am fine with eliminating the Merriweather hit on Heep. Hitting with the top of the helmet should be cause for immediate expulsion. Again its not only dangerous to the offensive player, but to the defensive player as well. I know spearing is already on the books, but when was the last time you saw a spearing penalty called?

    However what I AM afraid of is the arbitrary flag that going to be called on what I would call perfect tackles. Those where the player hits with his face mask first. I also wouldn't call anyone who makes an attempt to wrap when he makes his hit.

    If they want to fine people after a film review after the fact, I'm fine with it. But only the most egregious penalties (like Merriweather's) should cost a team 15 yds. Like the PI there is just too much grey area for officials.

    Hopefully after a week or so, this issue will subside, and the worst of the offenses will be eliminated, while the integrity of the game is maintained.....along with some better tackling techniques. ;)

    9. I'm sorry the trade deadline went by with Logan Mankins still on the team. Outside of veteran depth, I don't see the point. If the guy was SOOO pissed off at the Pats that he demeaned the owner and turned down a deal that would have made him one of the top 3 highest paid OG's in the league; why would we think he'd be mentally prepared to play a significant part in our OL

    I'm baffled by those who keep saying "how can you not play one of the best OG's in the league?" I don't deny that he WAS one of the best OG's in the league. But that was after he had a full off season to prepare, as well as a full training camp. Face the facts that the Logan Mankins that will arrive some time in November WILL NOT be ready to play at an elite level. I'd be very surprised if he arrived ready to play at a JAG level. Why would he? How is it in his best interest to put himself through the effort and risk to get ready to play.

    No! He's only here to sit on the bench and get his year's credit in then get to FA. Teams have 5 years of film on him. 3 or 4 games of poor play (assuming he sees the field) isn't going to hurt him much. The only ray of hope I can see, is if both sides are secretly talking about a doable long term deal. That is the ONLY reason I can think of not to trade him, even if were for a bag of balls.

    Okay, This has clearly gone on long enough.....actually way TOO long. I'll do another AFTER the game when I will have the benefit of perfect 20-20 hindsignt.....and I'll try not to over do my "keen sense of the obvious" :D
     
  2. patsox23

    patsox23 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    7,397
    Likes Received:
    9
    Ratings:
    +17 / 1 / -0

    great stuff, as always, ken. Thanks for the good thoughts and the tremendous effort!
     
  3. jsull87

    jsull87 In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Dec 8, 2008
    Messages:
    2,610
    Likes Received:
    29
    Ratings:
    +59 / 1 / -0

    in regard to mankins... all we are going to do is franchise tag him he can whine all he wants but we will either as u say sign him long term or will trade him next year before the draft but we will be getting compensated
     
  4. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    41,817
    Likes Received:
    182
    Ratings:
    +371 / 11 / -28

    Think the Mankins sitz is interesting, not quite sure what BB will do if and when he reports... no one player is bigger than the team and this meritocracy will he supplant Connolly??? Right now I do not see it....

    I still question if he will report, he is a real thickhead...

    Great post Ken, as expected.
     
  5. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Apr 23, 2008
    Messages:
    13,542
    Likes Received:
    196
    Ratings:
    +573 / 13 / -5

    #51 Jersey

    Our defense is allowing 23.2 points per game and our offense is scoring 30.8 points per game patfanken.
     
  6. kurtinelson

    kurtinelson In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2004
    Messages:
    2,378
    Likes Received:
    8
    Ratings:
    +14 / 5 / -2

    #37 Jersey

    So I should take the Pats +3?


    Damn it. I can't wrap my head around this game. SD is a mystery to me. They have bad special teams and their receiving corps is very banged up. Given their youth, one might expect the Pats young Defense to have a let down here (due to mental mistakes) on the road after two big wins.
     
  7. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2009
    Messages:
    3,364
    Likes Received:
    72
    Ratings:
    +180 / 1 / -1

    #12 Jersey

    I don't understand this trap game mentality either. San Diego has a top 5 offense, a better defense than ours, and they're at home. Their special teams have been lousy but they're still a talented team that has won both games at home in blowouts.
     
  8. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2004
    Messages:
    41,817
    Likes Received:
    182
    Ratings:
    +371 / 11 / -28

    This trap game stuff seems to be a figment of the imagination of the media.. do not see this as a trap game at all, see it as a tough road game.
     
  9. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2005
    Messages:
    24,354
    Likes Received:
    199
    Ratings:
    +386 / 28 / -48

    #50 Jersey

    in a heart beat.

    The Chargers are without their best WR in Floyd. Naanee is doubful to play and Gates is Questionable.

    Buster Davis is coming off an injury. Vincent Jackson isn't there.

    Crayton has had his success there primarily because Floyd and Gates have been on the field. Crayton, otherwise, is a loud mouth who can be shut down pretty easily by a decent slot corner.

    While the Pats D is young, the Chargers defense isn't. And they are coming off 2 straight games against 2 of the worst teams in the league. And they weren't really in the St. Louis game. Which is saying something.
     
  10. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2005
    Messages:
    24,354
    Likes Received:
    199
    Ratings:
    +386 / 28 / -48

    #50 Jersey


    The two games they won in "blow-outs" were against 2 of the worst teams in the league.

    Arizona is a team without a QB. Warner was forced out. The Leinhart experiment is done. Derek Anderson showed that he was just a flash in the pan all those years ago back in Cleveland. So they have resorted to their 3rd stringer as a starter. Not to mention that the loss of Dansby on Defense has hurt them more than they care to admit.

    Jacksonville is another team that just isn't good. Their O-line still isn't healthy. Garrard hasn't been doing much and is now out. They only have 3 legitimate weapons on offense in MJD, Mercedes Lewis and Mike Sims-Walker. And their defense has been pretty horrid.

    So, I am not surprised by the blow-outs that SD has gotten. They've been against teams that have more problems than the Oakland Raiders.. Which is saying A LOT.

    So, while SD has the best offense and best defense, (based on yards), they haven't exactly played The Baltimore Ravens, NY Jets, Patriots or Steelers. Teams who have legitimate offenses and defenses. So, from where I stand, they haven't really been tested. Tomorrow, they will be.
     
  11. CrazedChariot

    CrazedChariot Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2007
    Messages:
    30
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    You make some good points but I dissagree with the general direction.

    Points allowed and Points Scored are the only meaningful way to rank defense / offense IMO. Yards can be incredibly deceiving, with San Diego being a prime example.

    A quarterback can drive 80 yards down the field, throw a int for a touchdown, get the ball back right away and drive 80 yards down the field again and score a TD. The result in yards would be 160 to 0, yet the score would only be 7-7. The defense would be ranked #1 without ever stepping on the field. This is an extreme example, but a few of these events happening every game (In SD's Case) will reallly screw the yardage totals.


    Points Scored / Points Allowed are a much better measurment as they also include things like Redzone efficiency, which is one of the most important areas.

    So lets look at NE vs SD in this area.

    First, not sure where you are getting 30ppg for our defense. We are letting up 23.2 ppg and are scoring 30.8 ppg. The chargers are letting up 21 ppg and scoring 26.2 ppg.

    IMO -

    We have played two top 5 teams, two top 15 teams, and one horrific team.

    Chargers have yet to play a top 15 team.


    All of this being said, I do agree that anything can happen on any given Sunday. However, I would be dissapointed if we lost this game. People are saying the chargers always start slow, but that is sometimes a product of their schedule.

    Last year they lost to the Ravens, Steelers, and a Red Hot Denver team to open 2-3. That is a little bit different than losing to the Rams, Seahawks, Raiders, and Chiefs....

    Simply put, I think the chargers are a little bit better than 2-4 and will probably finish around 7-9 or 8-8. I would think this is a game we should win.
     
  12. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2005
    Messages:
    19,949
    Likes Received:
    29
    Ratings:
    +29 / 0 / -0

    Nene as you call him is doubtful. Gates is questionable. #1 target Floyd is doubtful. Crayton will be starting with #5 Bust-er Davis and possibly a PS callup to bolster the receiving corps.

    SD has never been a very good team. They have historically been a very talented team. That both helped and hurt them as they were encouraged as an organization to adopt their egotistical GM's talent centric persona. They have also been a solid drafting team which is how they got so talented. And they needed to be since they have been in financial straights for a decade and can't afford to retain talent beyond the confines of the cap. That talent centric mindset made them mediot darlings. Meanwhile they have been a poorly run organization which is why they are so cash strapped and ineptly coached. Now all the chickens are coming back to roost. Kinda like the Dallas debaucle minus the cashflow issues, where player and coaching decisions are made for other than purely competitive purposes...and eventually that bites you in the ass.

    Rivers himself is something of an enigma. As is the guy he was drafted with. Rivers isn't a leader. He can chuck the ball for sure. And he's physically one tough SOB. Mentally tough - not so much. He's more likely to have a meltdown under adverse conditions than rise up and elevate those around him. And they are both great face makers...more like dramatic performers. But his on and off the field demeanor is that of an entitled jerk periodically denied by forces beyond his control... Whereas Eli comes off more the mistake prone droop shouldered putz/scapegoat guys struggle to get behind. Romo is like what you get when you combine the best and worst traits of the other two... So far the only thing that ultimately seperates those three is a smattering of superior coaching and dumb luck...advantage Eli.

    If we play as well as we can we should win. And if we're a championship caliber team we need to prove to ourselves at some point we can win these winnable games by executing consistently. This would be as good a time as any. The D is on an uptick coming off a solid effort against Baltimore, and a dominant one for the last two quarters. The offense did what it had to do to come from behind, and that was with lots of inconsistent execution and uncharacteristic drops early and late. Clean that up and we might have rolled. If we don'tbeat SD it won't be the end of the world but it's back to the drawing board for sure, with the largely BS specter of Randy and the prick looming and SD will have their must win and arguably remain a contender albeit mostly via their position in a historically weak division. They are not and have never been a championship caliber team under this regime. Their playoff track record attests to that.

    I expect this team to win out at home barring unforseen injuries. Losing one of those games would be a big setback. That was why last week was huge. That was our toughest matchup of the season at home. Indy will be another test provided anyone on that team not named Manning is left standing come November... The JETS game will possibly be a must win for the division. With the Miami win we can possibly afford a couple of road losses, but with the Steelers lurking and a potential trap game or injury impacted game or the inevitable mulligan game, this game under these conditions (SD offense decimated) is really one they need to show they can handle. Stats don't win anything, teams do and you are what your record says you are and SD is a flawed team top to bottom.
     
  13. Gwedd

    Gwedd PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2007
    Messages:
    5,142
    Likes Received:
    113
    Ratings:
    +279 / 4 / -1

    #61 Jersey

    All I know is this: I am wary of what will happen tomorrow. I am hoping for a solid, substantial win over San Diego, but there is no way I would lay any money on that, or even on the Patriots winning this game.

    The problem is that, historically, the Chargers have always played tough against New England, and every win the Patriots has had was a hard-fought one, even when they won by a large points differential.

    I wouldn't be surprised at all by a San Diego win. They are at home, with their backs to the wall, nearly, sitting at 2-4, though their entire division is weak at this point.

    They have something to prove. However, they also risk imploding. Rivers is a hot-head who refuses to admit that a lot of the problem is him trying to force passes or missing the receiver altogether. He won't take the blame for anything, and his tantrums both on the field and the sidelines aren't winning him any friends on the team. There is quite a difference between being an emotional leader and being a martinet. The question for this game is which Rivers shows up to play.

    If San Diego gets behind by a score or two, the question will be whether they have the emotional drive to keep up the pressure and eek out a win, or will the players start pointing fingers and allow the game to get away? I am leaning towards the latter.

    I think that the real key to this game will be which team not just wants the win more, but which team will remain coherent and keep it's poise regardless of what happens on the field. History has shown that with two teams as well-matched as New England & San Diego, it more often than not comes down to the psyche, and the little things. A missed tackle, a dropped pass, a bobbled punt, etc.

    Bit of a ramble, but this game is going to be quite interesting, on so many levels. I want New England to win this one, especially with the Vikings coming to town. But San Diego winning wouldn't surprise me, though I would be very disappointed in that outcome.
     
  14. smg93

    smg93 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2006
    Messages:
    1,812
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ratings:
    +1 / 0 / -0

    #54 Jersey

    Totally agree with this assessment.
     
  15. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2005
    Messages:
    5,795
    Likes Received:
    402
    Ratings:
    +697 / 17 / -8

    #91 Jersey

    I don't think I disagree with your main point at all. I just thought it was an interesting juxtaposition of stats, and regardless of the results it DOES point to the Chargers being a very good team. Very capable of beating us, especially in THEIR house.

    And as to the error I made on the Patriots point allowed....I really shouldn't attempt to do stats that late at night.....though discovering the truth has made me feel a lot better. ;)
     
  16. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Aug 3, 2009
    Messages:
    3,364
    Likes Received:
    72
    Ratings:
    +180 / 1 / -1

    #12 Jersey

    Fair enough, but I'd add a few counter-points:

    1. The week 1 loss to the Chiefs looked bad, as did the week 3 loss to the Seahawks, but both are teams tied for the division lead. In fact, they've only played one team with a losing record, the Raiders.

    2. Yes, Arizona sucks and the NFC West is awful. But the Jaguars are a .500 team playing in one of the toughest divisions in football who also happened to beat the Colts.

    3. Don't deny them credit for blowing out bad teams, which is what good teams should do. And don't forget that the Patriots barely squeaked by Buffalo, a team much worse than anyone San Diego has played.

    I'm not denying the Chargers are struggling and that the stats are a bit misleading. But I think a lot of fans and media are taking this game a lot lighter than they should.
     
  17. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2005
    Messages:
    5,795
    Likes Received:
    402
    Ratings:
    +697 / 17 / -8

    #91 Jersey

    It a weaker receiving corp without Floyd, but its the QB who makes the receivers IMHO and Rivers is a good one. More on that later

    [/QUOTE]SD has never been a very good team. They have historically been a very talented team. [/QUOTE]

    That's a great turn of phrase, Mo, very Scott Piolian And while I agree to a certain degree, the Chargers have won too many games over the last several seasons to be so summarily dismissed. That's not to say their playoff woes aren't disappointing. But I think its more the errors on the field than the coaching that caused their down fall, especially in Marty's case/ I think the Chargers can be considered a "very good team" without necessarily being a "championship caliber team". In fact their AFCCG effort under very adverse conditions in 2007 showed a lot of character (minus LT of course ;) ), in my opinion.

    I'm not sure about their cap situation, but your characterization of their GM appears to be right on the mark. His handling of the Jackson/McNiel situation was bizarre to say the least. Though he DID manage to resolve half the problem. We are 0-1.


    Isn't it nice to be fans of an organization where these kinds of issues (for the most part ;) ) are not SOP

    Maybe I'm giving him too much credit for his 2007 AFCCG performance, but I think he's more of the leader in SD than you give him credit for. As to Romo and Eli, I can't agree more, but Rivers isn't in THEIR category. Eli could be the most over rated QB in NFL history. Unfortunately for him, he's a good NFL QB whose brother happens to be one of the best of all time.

    And I thought that I was the king of the obvious remark. ;)

    IMHO, if the Pats win this game it will be JUST as good as the Ravens win. A win against a very good (though underacheiving....at this point) team, ON THE ROAD


    Another great turn of phase. This time very Parcellian. But while you are not categorically wrong with your assessment of the Chargers, you aren't necessarily 100% right. Like in most cases the truth lies in the middle. But for now I think you are underestimating them some.
     
  18. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2005
    Messages:
    5,795
    Likes Received:
    402
    Ratings:
    +697 / 17 / -8

    #91 Jersey

    NIce post a real time saver for me. :D
     
  19. 5 Rings for Brady!!

    5 Rings for Brady!! In the Starting Line-Up

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2006
    Messages:
    2,753
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    I thought the Ravens would be our toughest match-up. I think if we had Deion and not Randy before the jets game, we would be the only undefeated team in the league. So I am confident, however the Chargers have not been a good matchup against us lately. We only beat them soundly, in Foxboro, in 2007 (if I am remembering the year/game correctly). The rest have been struggles or humiliating defeats.

    As mentioned earlier, a loss won't kill our season, but at the same time if we are the team we think we are than we should find a way to win...

    I notice nobody is coming out and declaring this a sure victory so maybe (fingers crossed) that is a good sign. ;)
     
  20. SuperPatsFan

    SuperPatsFan Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2010
    Messages:
    897
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Career regular-season stats:

    Rivers against the Pats 37/57, 64.9%, 485 yds, 5 td, 2 int, 106.3 rating
    Brady against the Bolts 113/170, 66.5%, 1220 yds, 8 td, 4 int, 93.3 rating
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2010
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>