Hypothetical-Where Would You Draft Jaylon Smith?

[HawaiianPatsfan]

Over The Cap's estimate of a $166 million cap gives the Pats $72 million in 2017 cap room with 30 players under contract. That also doesn't account for the ~15 rookies they'll draft between now and the 2017 season. To completely over simplify things, that's enough to sign Collins, Hightower, and Butler each for $9 million cap hits in 2017, 10 guys on rookie or cheap veteran contracts averaging a million each, 10 mid-tier veterans averaging $3 million each, plus $5 million left over.

Also note that Solder is still under contract through 2017 and presumably still the plan at left tackle then, but you could get another $7 million in cap room by cutting him a year from now. Amendola is the only other guy that sticks out, with $6.5 million in savings if he's cut next year.

he just got burned on that one. lol

 

[Simple Jack's Brother]

I wouldn't draft Jaylon Smith--period. Nerve damage and drop foot is difficult to overcome for an athlete. Add to that, that's at the beginning of his pro career. Especially with the complexity of our system. Or maybe it's getting newfound money from a signing bonus and then having a lot more free time on your hands, compared to healthy rookies.

The track record of guys that miss all or most of their first year with us is not good. I feel bad for the guy. But nope, he's not for us.

Good point about guys missing the first year here....can you think of anyone off the top of your head that missed 1st year with the Pats and actually had any production at all at the starter level? I'm drawing a blank here.

 

[ViperGTS]

Good point about guys missing the first year here....can you think of anyone off the top of your head that missed 1st year with the Pats and actually had any production at all at the starter level? I'm drawing a blank here.

While he "played" his first year here. I put forth Amendola. Edleman is another. He was a QB in college.

 

[Big Bucks]

Gaffney will be another!.. believe lol

I'd go a 5th, if its who Scarneccia wants then that's the only reason I'd want an injured player in this draft and would spend any pick on it too.

 

[DaBruinz]

Latest reports are questioning whether the kid will be able to play again. Period.. That means it's unlikely that anyone is going to draft him..

 

[DaBruinz]

You do realize the amount of FAs this team will have next year? Not just back end filler but contributers that draft picks this year won't be able to fill in one year. I don't understand where people think they will have all this money. They have High, Collins and Butler on the team this year at their current salaries and the cap is sitting at 5ish. Now, where pray tell is the top end money coming from to sign all 3, plus fill out the rest of the roster? Got a left tackle? How about a right tackle? Losing a Collins/Hightower/Butler is an extremely likely possibility. It's not thst we are afraid we can't afford them, it's more like we CAN'T afford them. Denver has to pay one so they lost 2 major parts of their D to big paydays. This team will be no different. Some teams will a)pay through the nose because they are dumb and b) try to screw the Pats. Doesn't mean they can't recover, just means all three being here will most likely not happen.

You have seriously gone off the rails this year..
Yes, they have a LT signed for 2017. Solder.
And, since you missed it, the Patriots currently have only $95.5M committed to players in 2017. And the cap should be north of $165M. They'll probably keep $7M free for injury stuff, but that still means north of $60M to sign players.. If you think that won't be enough to sign Collins, Hightower, Butler, and Ryan, then you really shouldn't bother to get into the conversations..

Furthermore, Comparing the Pats cap situation to that of Denver's is ludicrous. Especially since you can't be bothered to look at the entire picture.

 

[DaBruinz]

Great points, Sciz, but historically speaking, when has Belichick chosen to pay for elite talent at 3-4 positions on the same side of the ball? It's usually just a couple of players, with some middle of the road pacts, and some team friendly/value pacts.

Historically speaking, when has Belichick ever had elite talent at 3-4 positions on the same side of the ball the way he does with Collins, Hightower and Butler? Not to mention having $60-65M is cap money to spend?

2) Someone will likely take a good money, but smaller year deal, like Nate Solder did on offense. We cannot keep throwing around these 5/50 kind of deals like McCourty received when attempting to project guys like Butler, HT, Collins. It's just not going to happen in my opinion. The money may be there, but that's just not how Belichick has typically operated. Maybe they can take advantage of getting Butler out of the way now for something like a 3/25 deal, which would benefit both sides?

You don't seem to be taking into consideration how much the cap has changed. A cap of $166M means that each player is there to average $3M, with $6M left over. And since, many times, the 1st year of a new contract is well below the AAP of the player, that gives teams even more room to work.

I think it's more probably than not that Collins, Hightower and Butler get extensions. They are likely to be staggered in terms of contract length, but that is to help the pats in terms of signing them in the future..

 

[DaBruinz]

Could be a smokescreen as well. What was the source?

If true is he still worth a 7th? Can drop foot improve?

Les Bowen is just one of many reporters who are reporting this. Bowen is a reporter from Philadelphia.
And it's been on several different news reports..

 

[supafly]

While he "played" his first year here. I put forth Amendola. Edleman is another. He was a QB in college.

Edelman had a rather productive rookie year here, ending in his one man show 2 TD performance in the postseason loss vs. BAL.

I'm pretty sure the question is regarding rookies who were IRed or redshirted that then went on to have productive seasons here afterwards, and I don't think there are many.

 

[The Gr8est]

I

Edelman had a rather productive rookie year here, ending in his one man show 2 TD performance in the postseason loss vs. BAL.

I'm pretty sure the question is regarding rookies who were IRed or redshirted that then went on to have productive seasons here afterwards, and I don't think there are many.

I was thinking David Givens sort of qualifies.

As I recall he was injured early, or at the very least only played sparingly at the end of his first season.

I had already written him off as a potentially useful Pat, and then he showed up next training camp with gr8ly improved hands and the ability to willingly and effectively block, and the rest is history.

 

[supafly]

Historically speaking, when has Belichick ever had elite talent at 3-4 positions on the same side of the ball the way he does with Collins, Hightower and Butler? Not to mention having $60-65M is cap money to spend?
..

I think we've seen plenty of examples where Belichick had money to spend but passed on signing key players. It's going to be about whether or not Belichick agrees with the value and current market. He isn't going to pay Jamie Collins 11-12m dollars a year just because there's cap space available.

Hell, Belichick barely retained Randy Moss only a year after he set the WR record and scored 23 touchdowns. He actually had to take a hometown discount to stay by passing up better offers, and what he got (9m a year) was certainly in line with the market for top end WRs.

We've seen guys like Ty Law, Asante Samuel, and even Darrelle Revis leave because he didn't agree with their demands. I don't believe that's it's realistic to assume that players will be kept just because there's money available, as there are other variables in play. It'd be great to keep all 3, but I'm only expecting to keep 2.

 

[DW Toys]

Not every pass gets completed. But that doesn't mean you stop throwing the ball.

People get silly about the draft and thinking about hits and misses. The reality is everyone hits and everyone misses. It's not about batting 1.000, which is impossible, but about making your team better. Sometimes your draft pick doesn't work out, but just because you miss on one doesn't mean you stop trying.

Yes, Easley didn't work out due to injuries. Ditto Dowling. But concluding that we should avoid all injury risks also means passing on Gronk, who missed his entire junior season with a serious back injury.

So you can't hit on every single draft pick, but that doesn't mean you should fear making a pick because a different one failed before.

Remember-A certain Pats RB that went to the Jets is H of F Curtis Martin who had an injured Senior season.

One of the nastiest injuries I watched was Navaro Bowman. The dude is back on the field after one year and playing at a high level. Marcus Lattimore was a very good player. He might have been a first rounder but remember he had been injured prior. This was his second significant injury. He still got Drafted in Round 4. I think his injury was gruesome unlike Smiths.

Smith is a once every five year kid. You gamble..End of story. Round 2 #60 or #61 you grab him. You have a 17% chance after a three year term that these kids even when healthy work out as starters, good back ups or Special Teams guys or the best result,Pro Bowl caliber upon as average of each NFL Team. The rest are replaceable JAGS or out of the League.

Injured second rounders? Gronk? We spent a second rounder on Dowling who was no where near the caliber player Smith is. That speaks volumes. So a good and a bad.

The Pats are one of the few Teams that are Blessed that do NOT have to incorporate Smith in the line up Day one. Let him red shirt learn for a year and get healthy.

Why?
We have 13 new FA and 12 Draft picks.
We have two excellent LBs that are up for contract extensions...how might that go?
We just got screwed out of a 1st Rounder and this kid was a top five pick we can still get.

What is the worst that can happen? We cut Easley, Dowling , Tavon Wilson, Darius Butler, even Chad Jackson and eventually Maroney. All of these guys were high picks and some head scratchers. Look at all of these kids and tell me you would not take a shot at Smith late in Round 2.

Just in the last five years, Dobson looks like a Round 2 bust....Jordon Richards? who knows but a surprising non value pick in round 2, Shane Vareen....gone. We have Jimmy G and a a definite maybe in Jordon Richards to show for of Pats second round picks.

Smith makes as much sense and more than any of these.

DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

Not before the fourth round.

Sent from my KFSOWI using Tapatalk

Never happen. Gone in Round 2. Lattimore was not the same value and had a second serious injury. He went in Round 4.
DW Toys

 

[Sciz]

Remember-A certain Pats RB that went to the Jets is H of F Curtis Martin who had an injured Senior season.

One of the nastiest injuries I watched was Navaro Bowman. The dude is back on the field after one year and playing at a high level. Marcus Lattimore was a very good player. He might have been a first rounder but remember he had been injured prior. This was his second significant injury. He still got Drafted in Round 4. I think his injury was gruesome unlike Smiths.

Smith is a once every five year kid. You gamble..End of story. Round 2 #60 or #61 you grab him. You have a 17% chance after a three year term that these kids even when healthy work out as starters, good back ups or Special Teams guys or the best result,Pro Bowl caliber upon as average of each NFL Team. The rest are replaceable JAGS or out of the League.

Injured second rounders? Gronk? We spent a second rounder on Dowling who was no where near the caliber player Smith is. That speaks volumes. So a good and a bad.

The Pats are one of the few Teams that are Blessed that do NOT have to incorporate Smith in the line up Day one. Let him red shirt learn for a year and get healthy.

Why?
We have 13 new FA and 12 Draft picks.
We have two excellent LBs that are up for contract extensions...how might that go?
We just got screwed out of a 1st Rounder and this kid was a top five pick we can still get.

What is the worst that can happen? We cut Easley, Dowling , Tavon Wilson, Darius Butler, even Chad Jackson and eventually Maroney. All of these guys were high picks and some head scratchers. Look at all of these kids and tell me you would not take a shot at Smith late in Round 2.

Just in the last five years, Dobson looks like a Round 2 bust....Jordon Richards? who knows but a surprising non value pick in round 2, Shane Vareen....gone. We have Jimmy G and a a definite maybe in Jordon Richards to show for of Pats second round picks.

Smith makes as much sense and more than any of these.

DW Toys

I'm getting the sense that you don't understand Smith's injury. This has nothing to do with how gruesome an injury is. They can fix gruesome. Smith has nerve damage. Lattimore did not have nerve damage. That nerve damage is what everybody is so worried about.

 

[Ivan]

Also quite possible to trade into next year, seeing as how we only have 5 total picks in 2017 and 11 this year. That's actually what I'm expecting.

I sure hope you are wrong. Ultimately it comes down to their evaluations of the prospects available but with no first, fourth, or fifth round picks and a number of glaring needs I don't want them trading any of their top four picks into next year's draft. They need to address RB, DT, DE/OLB (Pass rusher), and CB. They also need another OT but may be better off waiting until they have a first rounder next year because the value at the position disappears around #40 in this draft.

That said I was hoping they would have a huge amount of cap space for 2017 given the number of contracts that run out this year and the needs they will present to fill. It's good to see this confirmed by those who know what they are talking about e.g...Miguel.

 

[Kontradiction]

I wouldn't spend any pick on him. Healthy, this kid is a beast. But his foot issues are about as dangerous as they come. This is shades of Lattimore all over again, only it's a different injury and on the other side of the ball but it's going to be the same career trajectory.

 

[Ivan]

Yikes. Ya, feel awful for the guy.

Yep, that's terrible news. He's supposed to be a bright kid who loves football and knows the game. He may be better off embarking on a coaching career as soon as possible.

 

[Ivan]

I wouldn't spend any pick on him. Healthy, this kid is a beast. But his foot issues are about as dangerous as they come. This is shades of Lattimore all over again.

It's not a "foot issue" though, the foot drop is more a signal that the nerves aren't regenerating and most likely won't if this doesn't go away in the next six months or so.

I'm not trying to be a **** about it I just know from personal experience how this runs. I lost feeling in most of my left hand from a neck injury and had a spine fusion and never got the all the feeling back in after it. Foot drop indicates the nerves in his knee aren't regenerating and at a certain point in the not too distant future he will be stuck with whatever progress they have and haven't made. No amount of rehab will make a difference.

 

[AzorianPats]

Remember-A certain Pats RB that went to the Jets is H of F Curtis Martin who had an injured Senior season.

One of the nastiest injuries I watched was Navaro Bowman. The dude is back on the field after one year and playing at a high level. Marcus Lattimore was a very good player. He might have been a first rounder but remember he had been injured prior. This was his second significant injury. He still got Drafted in Round 4. I think his injury was gruesome unlike Smiths.

Smith is a once every five year kid. You gamble..End of story. Round 2 #60 or #61 you grab him. You have a 17% chance after a three year term that these kids even when healthy work out as starters, good back ups or Special Teams guys or the best result,Pro Bowl caliber upon as average of each NFL Team. The rest are replaceable JAGS or out of the League.

Injured second rounders? Gronk? We spent a second rounder on Dowling who was no where near the caliber player Smith is. That speaks volumes. So a good and a bad.

The Pats are one of the few Teams that are Blessed that do NOT have to incorporate Smith in the line up Day one. Let him red shirt learn for a year and get healthy.

Why?
We have 13 new FA and 12 Draft picks.
We have two excellent LBs that are up for contract extensions...how might that go?
We just got screwed out of a 1st Rounder and this kid was a top five pick we can still get.

What is the worst that can happen? We cut Easley, Dowling , Tavon Wilson, Darius Butler, even Chad Jackson and eventually Maroney. All of these guys were high picks and some head scratchers. Look at all of these kids and tell me you would not take a shot at Smith late in Round 2.

Just in the last five years, Dobson looks like a Round 2 bust....Jordon Richards? who knows but a surprising non value pick in round 2, Shane Vareen....gone. We have Jimmy G and a a definite maybe in Jordon Richards to show for of Pats second round picks.

Smith makes as much sense and more than any of these.

DW Toys

I understand the concern some might have about Smith's injury, but I absolutely love the player, and I agree with everything you wrote.

 

[Ivan]

I understand the concern some might have about Smith's injury, but I absolutely love the player, and I agree with everything you wrote.

I don't know of anyone who doesn't like the kid as a prospect but that won't matter if the nerve damage is as bad as it seems.