How will the Front 6 look next season?

[mayoclinic]

I'm as big a fan of Fletcher as anyone, but is he really that flexible on defense? I've only seen him play ILB in a 3-4 or MLB in a 4-3. It looks like he just replaces Spikes on passing downs.

I think Fletcher's very versatile. He's fluid enough that he can be used in coverage situations, as you note. The Pats used him to spy Joe Flacco in the 2010 game against the Ravens, and he made several key plays. Besides ILB they've used him at 4-3 SAM in a similar role to Rob Ninkovich. And they've used him some at DE. Greg Knopping even noted that late last year the Pats used Fletcher at DT on third down in sub packages:

Sitting Down with Patriots LB Dane Fletcher - Pats Pulpit

The Pats also used Fletcher some at fullback last year:

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/f...0/03/fletcher-welch-latest-flash-versatility

Richard Hill of Pats' Pulpit and Mike Dussault of Pats' Propoganda discussed some of Fletcher's versatility and potential at OLB:

The Dane Fletcher Experience - Pats Pulpit
dane fletcher spy - Google Search

I had great hopes for Fletcher going into 2011 and at the beginning of the season I thought he had passed Brandon Spikes on the depth chart. Then his thumb injury really held him back, and Spikes clearly provided a big boost to the defense when he returned. But I still think that Fletcher could be a very valuable asset to the defense. I'd call him pretty versatile, myself.

 

[Deus Irae]

If the Patriots defense shows any ability to stop a freaking pass, opponents will begin running the ball more in order to chew up clock and limit the offense's possessions rather than trying to outscore the Patriots, and the base will be on the field more often.

Also, a fair amount of what has been done defensively in the past couple of seasons, such as moving Wilfork up and down the line, or playing an extremely passive game in the defensive backfield, has been done in order to cover up weaknesses more than play to strengths. As of now, some of that will have to continue, since the D-line is likely still a problem. Hopefully those days will at least be gone as far as the back seven goes.

 

[Ring 6]

Right.

For once, we agree.

Oh, I think we agree a lot more than that. There is just no reason to discuss what we agree on, so our discussions are about what we don't.

 

[supafly]

I think Fletcher's very versatile. He's fluid enough that he can be used in coverage situations, as you note. The Pats used him to spy Joe Flacco in the 2010 game against the Ravens, and he made several key plays. Besides ILB they've used him at 4-3 SAM in a similar role to Rob Ninkovich. And they've used him some at DE. Greg Knopping even noted that late last year the Pats used Fletcher at DT on third down in sub packages:

Sitting Down with Patriots LB Dane Fletcher - Pats Pulpit

The Pats also used Fletcher some at fullback last year:

patriots - Dane Fletcher, Thomas Welch latest to flash versatility with Patriots - WEEI | Christopher Price

Richard Hill of Pats' Pulpit and Mike Dussault of Pats' Propoganda discussed some of Fletcher's versatility and potential at OLB:

The Dane Fletcher Experience - Pats Pulpit
dane fletcher spy - Google Search

I had great hopes for Fletcher going into 2011 and at the beginning of the season I thought he had passed Brandon Spikes on the depth chart. Then his thumb injury really held him back, and Spikes clearly provided a big boost to the defense when he returned. But I still think that Fletcher could be a very valuable asset to the defense. I'd call him pretty versatile, myself.

Good links on Fletcher and his potential. Thank you.

FWIW--What is your personal opinion on why he was replaced by Tracy White as a starter in the SB? Was it simply due to his injured status not being 100% capable yet, or was it more due to his struggles with some of the defensive man coverage schemes with the LB's?

I suppose that I would go for a combo of both answers for my explanation, obviously leaning more towards the feeling that White may have been the better man (or at least Belichick thought so) to help with some of the bracketing that took place with Cruz and the man coverage on the TE/RB.

Regardless, I can't think back to how many snaps Fletcher received in the 2 playoff games prior to that, but I truly expected him in the SB rather than Tracy White. I questioned that move (right or wrong on my part) from the beginning of the game...especially after they marched down the field and took that 9-0 lead.

 

[Fencer]

If the Patriots defense shows any ability to stop a freaking pass, opponents will begin running the ball more in order to chew up clock and limit the offense's possessions rather than trying to outscore the Patriots, and the base will be on the field more often.

Actually, if the Patriots' defense improves significantly, then opponents will be playing from behind even more than they have been.

 

[supafly]

.

Also, a fair amount of what has been done defensively in the past couple of seasons, such as moving Wilfork up and down the line, or playing an extremely passive game in the defensive backfield, has been done in order to cover up weaknesses more than play to strengths. As of now, some of that will have to continue, since the D-line is likely still a problem. Hopefully those days will at least be gone as far as the back seven goes.

I think there was likely always be some type of masking that goes on to cover up weaknesses in certain situations, even for some of the better defenses in the league. 'How much' masking will be the main question this season. As you said, hopefully the second and third lines of defense will be much more improved, and the injury bug will miss us a bit this year.

I think some of that will depend on the weakness that you bring up, which currently appears to be the front line, obviously due to talent and overall depth.

Some of that speculation and possible severity of said problem will probably depend on exactly 'where' we see certain guys line up. As of now, I am having some trouble trying to determine how to classify guys in the base defense, although we certainly have some clues, opinions, and past patterns to go on.

Of course where those players will line up will also change based on the fact that we will likely continue to play sub defense in about 2/3rds of the formations.

In other words, guys like Bequette, Jones etc may be able to contribute some as pure base DE's, and that is where I am having problems speculating just how severe the defensive line problem may be.

At any rate, the added depth, talent, youth, and competition should make for a better defense overall; and as you pointed out, the secondary should also be much more capable in the 2012 season---barring too many injuries.

 

[supafly]

Actually, if the Patriots' defense improves significantly, then opponents will be playing from behind even more than they have been.

One would assume that the opponents will continue to try and attack through the air, at least until enough of a pattern has emerged that makes them think twice.

Of course the defense will always have to be flexible enough to be able to stop both, and we saw some capable run defense at times throughout last season; just not with enough consistency.

I think that the defense is much improved compared to where they were in the first 6 games of last yr, although I have somewhat of a biased opinion since I thought that they really came on nicely towards the end of the season.

 

[Fencer]

Of the Front 6, at most 2 have to be natural interior linemen. The rest can be natural LBs or rush specialists. And it can even be as low as 1, either because it's a dime package, or because somebody like Jones slides inside, or simply because it's a 3-3-5.

So interior DL in the sub package are pretty well-covered if Wilfork can go all game again.

 

[Marqui]

So interior DL in the sub package are pretty well-covered if Wilfork can go all game again.

We got lucky with his health last year but it can't be a good idea to keep running him into the ground like that.

 

[mayoclinic]

Of the Front 6, at most 2 have to be natural interior linemen. The rest can be natural LBs or rush specialists. And it can even be as low as 1, either because it's a dime package, or because somebody like Jones slides inside, or simply because it's a 3-3-5.

So interior DL in the sub package are pretty well-covered if Wilfork can go all game again.

We got lucky with his health last year but it can't be a good idea to keep running him into the ground like that.

I agree with both you you. Wilfork is the key to it all, but we can't keep him playing 86% of the defensive snaps and assume he won't get banged up, worn down, or injured. That's part of why I wanted someone like Brockers, Poe or Ta'amu in the draft, and why I want a big DT as my top priority for 2013.

With 2 studs in the middle it frees up the "natural LBs or rush specialists" to do so many things, and it allows BB to keep everyone fresh with a rotation. That's part of why I was so excited about the potential for Albert Haynesworth last year, and why I wanted the Pats to consider signing a FA like Aubrayo Franklin or Shaun Rogers. I agree that we'll sometimes see Jones slide inside on passing situations. Love, Warren, Pryor and Fanene should all get a fair amount of playing time, but there's really no one else who can do what Wilfork can, and that's a risk.

 

[Fencer]

What I really think will happen is that Wilfork will play every snap of the base defense, and be rotated in the sub.

 

[Fencer]

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...front-7-look-next-year-page2.html#post3044851

Mayoclinic opined in the Front 7 thread that even though Spikes played creditably in sub packages, that wasn't likely to be a major use of him. That makes sense.

However, what about a 3-3-5, with 1 true DL, 2 LB/pass rusher types with their hands down, and 3 true LBs? You might well want a Spikes-quality ILB then to make up for the lack of beef otherwise.

 

[mayoclinic]

What I really think will happen is that Wilfork will play every snap of the base defense, and be rotated in the sub.

That makes a certain amount of sense. But in 2011 Wilfork tied Kyle Arrington for the highest defensive participation, playing in 86.8% of the snaps. Since the Pats were in a sub package 67-70% of the time, that means that the majority of Wilfork's snaps came in sub packages, and that Wilfork played in the vast majority of sub packages.

Here's a nice read on Wilfork's increased playing time from just before the Super Bowl, with some nice quotes from BB:

"Vince is a very good athlete, as we can see from all of those interception returns, all of his open-field running and those kinds of plays. ... This year, he takes a lot of pride about not coming off the field, which I love in a defensive lineman. I love that they want to be out there on every play. They are not looking to come out. Shaun Ellis is like that. All of those years with the Jets, and a lot of those going back to the Giants, Jim Burt and Leonard (Marshall) didn't want to come off the field. That's the way Vince's attitude is. He is in good condition. Out at practice today during the offensive period, he's running sprints back and forth across the field, working on his conditioning. There is a week to go in the season, and I think that's indicative of his competitiveness, his desire to be good and consistently be good week after week during the entire season. ... You can talk about his appearance. He doesn't have the classic appearance, [but] he is a good athlete. He is in good shape, and he works really hard. He can play a lot of plays, and he plays them well, too. "

‘Big Vince’ is a breed apart in Patriots’ sub-par defense | Shutdown Corner - Yahoo! Sports

 

[Fencer]

That makes a certain amount of sense. But in 2011 Wilfork tied Kyle Arrington for the highest defensive participation, playing in 86.8% of the snaps. Since the Pats were in a sub package 67-70% of the time, that means that the majority of Wilfork's snaps came in sub packages, and that Wilfork played in the vast majority of sub packages. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-s...apart-patriots-sub-par-defense-013711621.html

Agreed. And there's nothing wrong conceptually with having a guy play substantially all of the snaps -- most of the offense does that, along with the starting DBs and Mayo.

I just don't know how long Wilfork can hold up playing substantially all of the snaps AND taking a lot of them in a role where he's commonly double-teamed.

 

[supafly]

Agreed. And there's nothing wrong conceptually with having a guy play substantially all of the snaps -- most of the offense does that, along with the starting DBs and Mayo.

I just don't know how long Wilfork can hold up playing substantially all of the snaps AND taking a lot of them in a role where he's commonly double-teamed.

I don't know that he can hold up, at least when we're looking at it from a 'finishing out his contract' type of status--and you can bet that the NEP are approaching it that way.

I'm under the impression that the over-reliance on Wilfork last yr was due to some weaknesses that needed to be covered up, particularly in the interior rushing dept with the injuries (Pryor, Wright) and lack of better options (Ellis, and poor ending situation with Haynesworth).

As a matter of fact, I'm not even 100% convinced that there were enough pros to go along with the obvious con, which was increasing Wilfork's chances at injury and wearing him down. He certainly demands a double team the majority of the time, and that in itself is positive, but I'm not sure if there was enough of a boost with him at 86% of the snaps.

I think there's no doubt that we'll see that number dwindle down, even if it stays high at about 75% this season. 86% (or about 7/8 plays) is just too much to ask for a man of Wilfork's stature, even if he has proven himself to be a freak athelete.

With almost 1/3 of our entire 89 man roster dedicated to the defensive line right now, hopefully there will be enough proper competition (along with the return of Pryor + addition of Fanane) to provide a better interior presence to give big Vince a break at times...even if that 'break' is only considered to be 6/8 plays (75%) instead of 7/8 (approx. where he was last yr).

 

[mayoclinic]

With almost 1/3 of our entire 89 man roster dedicated to the defensive line right now ,,,

27 of our players currently under contract are dedicated to the defensive FRONT 7. That's very different than the defensive line.

 

[Fencer]

27 of our players currently under contract are dedicated to the defensive FRONT 7. That's very different than the defensive line.

Is that like having 1/3 the players be dedicated to 1/3 of the positions?

 

[mayoclinic]

What about a 3-3-5, with 1 true DL, 2 LB/pass rusher types with their hands down, and 3 true LBs? You might well want a Spikes-quality ILB then to make up for the lack of beef otherwise.

Richard Hill of Pats' Pulpit looked at the performance of the Pats' 2011 sub defensive schemes last month, and found that the 3-3-5 was the least effective against both the run and the pass:

Patriots Scheming: Potential Defensive Adjustments - Pats Pulpit

Obviously, the addition of Hightower could make the 3-3-5 more effective. But it was something of a disappointment last year. Hill's conclusion:

If the Patriots wish to improve their defense, they'll have to find a way to improve their third down package, which involves scrapping the 3-3-5 formation. By drafting players with the versatility to excel in multiple formations, the Patriots could take the first step in vastly improving their defensive performance.

I could see Brandon Spikes being effective in a 3-3-5 scheme. But not so much in a 4-2-5. If the Pats want the ability to switch on the fly, then Spikes' versatility is somewhat limited. But he's a very good player, so I'm sure BB will find ways to use him and make him fit.

 

[Fencer]

Richard Hill of Pats' Pulpit looked at the performance of the Pats' 2011 sub defensive schemes last month, and found that the 3-3-5 was the least effective against both the run and the pass:

Patriots Scheming: Potential Defensive Adjustments - Pats Pulpit

My doubts start:

• Are those Patriots numbers or league numbers?
• If Patriots-only, what's the sample size?
• In particular, what's the Patriots sample size with Spikes included?

 

[ay-yo]

However, what about a 3-3-5, with 1 true DL, 2 LB/pass rusher types with their hands down, and 3 true LBs? You might well want a Spikes-quality ILB then to make up for the lack of beef otherwise.

Hightower - Wilfork - Jones
Mayo - Spikes - Nink

or

Bequette - Wilfork - Jones
Mayo - Spikes - Hightower

either way it's an interesting way to get our best players on the field