Have you ever seen a 12 1/2 point favorite seen as very beatable like this week?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PATRIOTSFANINPA, Dec 7, 2007.

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    #12 Jersey

    I have read dozens of articles about the NE and Pits game and I can not believe how many are giving the Steelers a good chance of winning this week,Do they know the Patriots are a whopping 12 1/2 point favorite?.

    I assume the betting line is once again too high and I bet Vegas is getting tons of money on the Steelers and the points this week because lots of media guys have the Steelers either winning or playing a VERY close game.

    This is when Vegas stikes like a snake - They get you to put your money on what appears to be a sure cover,then BAM its a loss in your wallet.

    With all that being said I think Vegas knows exactly what they are doing and for that reason I expect a Patriots cover and blowout.

    Vegas,You are not fooling me ;)
  2. sanvara

    sanvara Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    Point spread is not indicative of any knowledge on the part of bookies in Vegas as to who will win a game. The point spread is determined by how much money is coming in on each team. Vegas wants equal money to be bet on both sides. If more people start betting the Pats to win the spread goes up. If more people bet the Steelers to win the spread goes down. So basically the the general public determines the point spread with their money. That's not a reliable way to pick a winner.
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2007
  3. ClevTrev

    ClevTrev Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

    If you're saying that the line has nothing to do with reality, you're right. Think about the bookmakers objectives, they want as many people to wager on an event as possible. Given the last two games, the game Sunday will probably be a huge day in betting. Many think it's too good to pass up.

    Now, as for reality, who knows? If the Pats are rested and ready, I expect to see results like the first 10 games. If they aren't and the Steelers play their best, it will be interesting. BTW, if I were an NFL bettor, I would stay away from this game.
  4. GameDay

    GameDay Practice Squad Player

    You are not kidding. They (Vegas) is on the revenge tour now, starting with the Indy-NE game.

    The line at 10.5 is very smart. Although I think the Pats may win more than 10, it's too close for comfort.
  5. JoePats

    JoePats In the Starting Line-Up

    In horse racing they use a parimutuel system which is totally different than Vegas betting...Basically you bet against everyone else and if the odds depend on how much is bet on each horse...

    That said in racing, 2-1 shots win more than 5-2 shots who win more than 3-1 shots, etc...6-5 win more than 7-5 over 8-5 over 9-5.

    I assume that even though its a different system the basic tenet is true, ie 10 pt favorites win (not necessarily cover) more than 10.5, more than 11, etc..
  6. SoCalPatsfan90

    SoCalPatsfan90 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    NE's a 12.5 point fave because they are 12-0. Not based on how they played over the last 4 weeks...

    Personally, I think NE will show up well this week. If they don't, 12-1 it is and thats fine with me.
  7. GameDay

    GameDay Practice Squad Player

    We see this over and over. Not really true. The bookies set the line according to the result of maximum likelihood. The betting does not have to be exactly 50-50 in a single game. They tend to be 50-50 over all games. They move the lines only to hedge their bet.

    Let's put it this way. You stand to win in the long term by setting the spread as strongly correlated to the results as possible.

    I've have seen proof of this correlation for data over many years (may be 10?). The correlation was amazing and beyond chances.

    Try this for current split of $

  8. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    #12 Jersey

    Vegas is out to make money. If it thinks that it can trap more than 50% of betters into wagering on an unlikely outcome, it will try to make it happen. Over time, Vegas makes more money that way.
  9. GameDay

    GameDay Practice Squad Player

    I can't find an interesting article anymore. But my colleague knows a little about this industry. It's as serious as risk investment management (like hedge funds). There are no fools in a multi-$B industry. Any fool would quickly be extinct. People are paid in the 7+ figures like mutual fund managers.

    The fools are the average Joe's of betting public. Would Vegas or Macao last if they were so easily beaten?
  10. NovaScotiaPatsFan

    NovaScotiaPatsFan In the Starting Line-Up

    #50 Jersey

    Yeah, we were what a 20 point fav last week, 25 the week before?
  11. GameDay

    GameDay Practice Squad Player

    which led to Vegas winning. The average public tends to go with the favorite. Pats' streak of beating the spread up to the Colts game killed them.

    You could hear the whoopee sound at the final whistle in the NE-IND game.

    They are on a roll with the last two games.

    I think Pitts still draws more $ than Pats. For this game, both Pats fans and Vegas will want the same outcome.
  12. jbb9s

    jbb9s In the Starting Line-Up

    Exactly. The line is dynamic and if it so if even money comes in on both teams, Vegas automatically makes 5% (takes 100% from half the pot and pays out 95% to the other half)
  13. GameDay

    GameDay Practice Squad Player

    We know words from the street was that high rollers immediately jumped in and grab the +14 or 13 Pitts after that Ravens game...

    Well, not all... why? as it turned out, what I heard, Pitts-on-the-road isn't what give some high rollers comfy...

    I'm sort of fundamental technical analyst and don't buy too much into this psych stuffs (one particular team at home or road), but this just says that Pitts road record this yr doesn't make them endearing to some investors.
  14. crew1954

    crew1954 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

    #12 Jersey

    Steelers away record and stats:
    Record: 2-3, .400 winning percentage
    Defense stats: 91 pts allowed/18.2 pts per game
    Offense 116 points scored/23.2 points per game
    Opponents and (records)
    34-7 @Cleveland (7-5)

    14-21 @Arizona (6-6)

    28-31 @ Denver (5-7).

    24-13 @Cincinnati (4-8)

    16-19 @ NY Jets (3-9)

    Steelers road opponents records 25-35 .417 winning percentage

    So on the road the Steelers play .400 ball away against .400 ball playing teams. throwing out the Cleveland blowout on opening day, , The Steelers have gone 1-3 their last 4 away games.

    stats for last 4 Steelers road games:

    Ave score Steelers: 20.5 Opponent 21

    last 4 road opponents combined record: 18- 30 .374 winning percentage

    Scary stuff!
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