Football Outsiders STATS for this Week

[BelichickFan]

The reason I capitalized STATS is so the Charger TrollBoys should know better than to say "BS it's just stats" because they knew when they opened the thread.

Personally I like FO because it wipes away the "SteroidMan will sack Brady on every pass attempt" BS and just gives you the numbers. They also take the opponents strength into account.

Overall the Patriots are second (behind Baltimore) and SD is fourth.

SD pass offense is 3, NE pass defense is 7.
SD run offense is 1, NE run defense is 10.

* None of those are too surprising except maybe our run D being lower than I'd have thought. I think it's because we haven't faced the toughest schedule of RB this year. These stats would indicate SD will do their share of moving and scoring but not at an overwhelming rate.

NE pass offense is 6, SD pass defense is 11.
NE run offense is 8, SD run defense is 22.

* Nice - the gaps between our offense and their defense is bigger for both the run and the pass than theirs. Marginally in pass offense, though.

And HF doesn't appear to be as big an advantage as SD fans will think :

SD at home is +117 in points.
NE on the road is +112 in points.

 

[tedy hagler]

Good stats. I think the underdiscussed topic of the week is how badly the Patriots could maul the Chargers defense. LaDanian will get his yards, but if we limit him to modest yards per carry (for him that is 4.5 or less) and hammer the ball with Dillon and Maroney, I think the Patriots will win.