Football Outsiders on Martellus Bennett

[Tony2046]

Don't forget the ole' DA to TB.

 

[Deus Irae]

Yeah, I was talking about the Pats.

Even with the Patriots, though, it's clear that having a legitimate middle-deep threat makes the offense better. 2007 is the most obvious example, but it's not the only one.

 

[aluminum seats]

Even with the Patriots, though, it's clear that having a legitimate middle-deep threat makes the offense better. 2007 is the most obvious example, but it's not the only one.

Randy Moss definitely helps.

 

[aluminum seats]

Don't forget the ole' DA to TB.

Still ticked they wasted that one...

 

[Deus Irae]

Randy Moss definitely helps.

It's not just Moss. Take a look at 2004, when Givens really established himself, along with Patten, as middle-deep threats, and Branch working the shorter stuff. Adding Dillon certainly didn't hurt, either, but the team went from scoring 371 points in 2001, 381 points in 2002, and 348 points in 2003 to scoring 437 points in 2004.

For that matter, take a look even at the impact that Brandon Lloyd had, despite his penchant for dropping to the ground immediately upon catching the ball, and his low overall YPC. 513 points in 2011 jumped up to 557 points in 2012, then dropped way down to 444 in 2013, and has not really rebounded since (468 and 465 points in 2014 and 2015).

 

[SlowGettingUp]

it's clear that having a legitimate middle-deep threat makes the offense better

Well nobody is going to dispute that of course.

But the real question is what if you don't have a shiny-toy legitimate number one receiver that is going to go up and reliably get the ball even if Brady is a little bit off target? How sensible are these throws on an expected-value basis when Brady is throwing to a mid-level speedster like we will actually have? Just not sure the risk/reward is there, although I suppose you will always need to take a shot or two to keep the defense honest.

For me it comes down to a comparative advantage analysis. Even if Brady is better than most at these long passes it doesn't make them a good deal simply because he is so much better than everyone else at the short to intermediate passes.

Of course it may just be that I can't get all those doomed Brady-to-Slater bombs out of my head.

 

[Deus Irae]

Well nobody is going to dispute that of course.

But that's essentially what people here actually do.

But the real question is what if you don't have a shiny-toy legitimate number one receiver that is going to go up and reliably get the ball even if Brady is a little bit off target? How sensible are these throws on an expected-value basis when Brady is throwing to a mid-level speedster like we will actually have? Just not sure the risk/reward is there, although I suppose you will always need to take a shot or two to keep the defense honest.

As I pointed out in a response to aluminum seats, history shows that it makes a big difference, even with the Brady Patriots.

 

[JMC00]

513 points in 2011 jumped up to 557 points in 2012, then dropped way down to 444 in 2013, and has not really rebounded since (468 and 465 points in 2014 and 2015).

Meh.. Only in the '12 season did they lead the league in the scoring the other years they were ranked right in the same spot. Less of a Pats thing and more of a league thing.

#3 in 2015
#4 in 2014
#3 in 2013
#1 in 2012
#3 in 2011

Yep 513 points in 2011 only had them ranked as the #3 scoring team...

And FYI since 2012 only 1 team has scored more than 500 points, Broncos in '13.. Panthers had 500 on the nose last year and they needed 4 defensive TD to reach it.

 

[Rhodey]

Stop Comparing Martellus Bennett to Aaron Hernandez

"Anyway, ESPN has Bennett listed at 6’6’’ and 265 pounds, whereas Pro Football Reference has him at 6’7’’ and 248 pounds. NFL.com says 6’6’’ and 273. Meanwhile, Aaron Hernandez is listed at 6’2’’ and 250 pounds on PFR, and 6’1’’ and 245 on NFL.com. ESPN still has all his stats listed, but not his measurements, for some reason. World Wide Leader in Not Listing Height of Serial Killers, HOLLA!"

"Either way, that’s a five-inch difference in height and between…three and almost thirty pounds in weight. That’s basically comparing Steph Curry (6’3’’) to LeBron James (6’8’’), height-wise. In terms of weight, any defensive back can surely tell you that bringing down those extra couple dozen pounds doesn’t make their job any easier. Just ask Sergio Brown, the Colts safety who Gronk “threw out of the club” last year. "

"The ways they got those insane yardage totals, though (insane by tight end standards, anyway), as we saw, was completely different. While Martellus Bennett is clearly an excellent receiver and red-zone target, he’s also clearly more in the traditional tight-end mold. Line up next to the tackle or in the slot, get open between the seams, and serve as an emergency short-pass option. And, of course, use your massive stature to get open in the end zone."

Link: http://chowderandchampions.com/2016/03/22/stop-comparing-martellus-bennett-aaron-hernandez/

The Conclusion

"Let’s get this straight – Martellus Bennett checks off all the boxes to be wildly successful in Josh McDaniels’ offensive game plans. He’s a nasty, effective run blocker, has the hands and instincts to be a well-established middle-of-the-field target, and – like Gronk – is an absolute monster after the catch. Since 2013, according to ESPN Stats & Info, out of every tight end in the NFL, Gronk leads the league with 1,208 yards after the catch. Second place? Martellus Bennett, racking up a cool 1,066 yards AFTER he’s already caught the ball. Just like we saw this past season with players like Dion Lewis, Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and James White, the Patriots absolutely feasted when the YAC was flowing."

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Amen brother! Gronkowski is a beast in the deep seam and that leaves a lb on Bennett.

If Brady has time, he will pick apart the opposing defense all game long.

The only way to stop us is if a team had two big safties that can single cover the two tight ends and no team currently has that.

Seattle has that, they also have a CB they could match up on Gronk. You don't necessarily need 2 elite safeties, you need 1 elite safety and 1 elite CB that is capable of matching up against a TE.. guys like Talib, Sherman, Peterson.. The Cardinals have the ability to match up maybe as well

Its going to be a very interesting offense to run indeed! Either Bennett or Gronk is going to have a 1 on 1 against a linebacker... unless the defense goes into a dime and matches up 2 DBs on the TEs.. and then they just go into a Power-I formation and run the ball down their throats in a no huddle until they call a timeout

On paper and in theory, this offense is going to be very exciting to watch and EXTREMELY difficult to match up against

 

[Tony2046]

Seattle has that, they also have a CB they could match up on Gronk. You don't necessarily need 2 elite safeties, you need 1 elite safety and 1 elite CB that is capable of matching up against a TE.. guys like Talib, Sherman, Peterson.. The Cardinals have the ability to match up maybe as well

Its going to be a very interesting offense to run indeed! Either Bennett or Gronk is going to have a 1 on 1 against a linebacker... unless the defense goes into a dime and matches up 2 DBs on the TEs.. and then they just go into a Power-I formation and run the ball down their throats in a no huddle until they call a timeout

On paper and in theory, this offense is going to be very exciting to watch and EXTREMELY difficult to match up against

I disagree completely. How are they going to score if they don't have a 7 foot receiver with sticky hands and 4.3 speed?

 

[JarOfMayo51]

It's not, and that's pretty clear to see with even a cursory check at NFL history. People here on Patsfans.com like to ignore the reality that the Brady Patriots are the exception, not the rule.

They've been trying to solve the deep threat issue with draft picks and FAs, but that position has been a bane on this team for a long time.. Dobson had me gitty like a school girl out of college, its a damn shame he never lived up to his draft status.. he could have been that legit deep threat we needed, but we're snake bitten with drafting outside WRs

 

[JMC00]

Seattle has that, they also have a CB they could match up on Gronk. You don't necessarily need 2 elite safeties, you need 1 elite safety and 1 elite CB that is capable of matching up against a TE.. guys like Talib, Sherman, Peterson.. The Cardinals have the ability to match up maybe as well

Judging by last year Seattle doesn't have the best games against TEs

During the regular season, the Seahawks allowed 75 receptions by tight ends — an average of nearly five per game — for 873 yards and eight touchdowns.

The two best TEs they played last year killed them.

Eifert- 8 rec 90 yards 2 TD
Olsen- 7 rec 130 yards 1 TD & 6 rec 77 yards 1 TD

Thomas, Chancellor and Sherman all played...

 

[Off The Grid]

Let's assume:

• A base defense.
• A Pats' RB who isn't Lewis.
  
• 5 wide.

5 Wide and an HalfBack? That would be difficult to defend.

...Unless the Defense gets 12 men, too.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

If the OL blocks the offense is going to be very good. For all the doom and gloom about the OL there is plenty of reason to be hopefully. A lot of 2nd year jumps incoming along with an upgrade at coaching. We should call him the "OL whisperer".

I am not counting on Lewis to be healthy for 16 games but if he is healthy for the 3 playoff games i will be very happy.

Gronk/Bennett are going to be very hard to stop and after this year it will most likely be very hard for us fans to let Bennett go. It is going to be Revis all over again. the difference is maybe the Pats actually keep Bennett cause TEs tend to be a bargain no matter what.

That sums it up nicely. If the OL blocked better second half of last year then we are at home in AFCCG, likely go to the SB, probably win it.

Look, even when they block well there will be a game every so often where the D just matches up well and/or they call an exceptionally intuitive gameplan and/or key target misses a game and/or Brady lays an egg. It means the Patriots won't light it up as they might normally do.....but they're still likely to score sufficiently. But most games with these targets and this QB (when the OL blocks satisfactory) will result in a lot of points. And the idea that 'they can just clog the middle' is such an oversimplification as to not even rise to the level of a line out of Tank McNamara.

 

[ViperGTS]

Seattle has that, they also have a CB they could match up on Gronk. You don't necessarily need 2 elite safeties, you need 1 elite safety and 1 elite CB that is capable of matching up against a TE.. guys like Talib, Sherman, Peterson.. The Cardinals have the ability to match up maybe as well

Its going to be a very interesting offense to run indeed! Either Bennett or Gronk is going to have a 1 on 1 against a linebacker... unless the defense goes into a dime and matches up 2 DBs on the TEs.. and then they just go into a Power-I formation and run the ball down their throats in a no huddle until they call a timeout

On paper and in theory, this offense is going to be very exciting to watch and EXTREMELY difficult to match up against

They need a run game that nets them 3.5 min per carry at all times. Run looks, sub package defenses the whole shebang. If they don't, then an elite D will undress them like Denver did. Hell their own D would undress them if they play to the level I feel.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

5 Wide and an HalfBack? That would be difficult to defend.

...Unless the Defense gets 12 men, too.

Even the suggestion of it here on this board will probably get coach Coach Raven Assface whining about it....

 

[JMC00]

They need a run game that nets them 3.5 min per carry at all times. Run looks, sub package defenses the whole shebang. If they don't, then an elite D will undress them like Denver did. Hell their own D would undress them if they play to the level I feel.

They had that before their #1 & #2 RB went down and half the OL got injured.

YPC last year

Blount 4.3
Lewis 4.8

 

[Fencer]

5 Wide and an HalfBack? That would be difficult to defend.

...Unless the Defense gets 12 men, too.

C'mon. What I meant is so obvious that I don't think your pretended misunderstanding was really funny. Misfire.

 

[Fencer]

Even the suggestion of it here on this board will probably get coach Coach Raven Assface whining about it....

Well, he famously got confused about an RB's pass-catching eligibility ...