Draft Strategy

[mgteich]

The open question is whether we would happy with a draft of two blue chippers and a some 6th and 7th round hopefuls. We might hit on both (as the jets did with Revis and Harris) or we might whiff. Ochmed has suggested McClain and Cody. Personally, I could go either way.

I would certainly be celbrating with McClain, Cody and almost nothing else. This option can be made possible by team actions in re-signing players, tendering players, franchising players and in picking up players in free agency. In the end, Belichick like to come into the draft with as few current needs as possible.

===========================
We should be able to trade 1st and 2nd to move up for a blue-chipper.
We should be able to trade 2 seconds and a fourth to move up for a blue-chipper.

The value is there both in the 10-20 range that we would move to. The cost wouldn't be terrible. We're not talking about the top 7 picks after all.

The value is also there if we say where we are and even trade down abit picking up a 3rd and a 5th.

 

[furley]

If you're a good team with depth, you can afford to trade up and take more chances. If you're a bad or mediocre team that has a lot of holes to fill. Often times, your choices are made for you. Or you're a team that will think outside of the box no matter what. So you go by the direction of the wind, or you go with your gut regardless of situation. In any case, I say you trade up if you have a lot of draft picks. Quality over quantity is the best policy.

The Patriots are so much about the system and players that fit nicely into these systems that it can become annoying to see your team pass on talented players who excel elsewhere. You're quick to judge... Like, we could've had him. How come this team got that player who wasn't even drafted? Where were we...?

Miles Austin?

 

[BritPat]

If you're a good team with depth, you can afford to trade up and take more chances. If you're a bad or mediocre team that has a lot of holes to fill. Often times, your choices are made for you. Or you're a team that will think outside of the box no matter what. So you go by the direction of the wind, or you go with your gut regardless of situation. In any case, I say you trade up if you have a lot of draft picks. Quality over quantity is the best policy.

The Patriots are so much about the system and players that fit nicely into these systems that it can become annoying to see your team pass on talented players who excel elsewhere. You're quick to judge... Like, we could've had him. How come this team got that player who wasn't even drafted? Where were we...?

Miles Austin?

This is it though. Every time passed on him, at least 7 times.

The Draft isn't an exact science, never has been. For every Randy Moss there's a Miles Austin. For every Larry Fitzgerald there's a Wes Welker. For every Nick Mangold there's a Shaun O'Hara. For every Joe Thomas there's a Jason Peters. For every Adrian Peterson there's a Willie Parker. For every Vince Wilfork there's a Pat Williams. For every Peyton Manning there's a Tony Romo.

People talk about measurables and level of competition, forgetting that sheer talent and intangibles matter just as much.

 

[mgteich]

the jets draft strategy is looking pretty good as I post at halftime. They game two drafts for Revis, Harris, Sanchez and Green. They are obviously keys to any jets success.

 

[ayjackson]

the jets draft strategy is looking pretty good as I post at halftime. They game two drafts for Revis, Harris, Sanchez and Green. They are obviously keys to any jets success.

seems more of a scouting success story than a strategy success story

 

[mayoclinic]

the jets draft strategy is looking pretty good as I post at halftime. They game two drafts for Revis, Harris, Sanchez and Green. They are obviously keys to any jets success.

The Jets are actually pretty well positioned for long term success. They have the #1 defense in the NFL with no major holes, and the #1 running attack in the NFL with a solid offensive line and nice depth at RB between Jones, Green and Washington. They have decent receiving weapons with Edwards and Keller. If Sanchez develops, they should be a legitimate playoff contender for some time.

Either strategy works pretty well if you hit on your targets. Both don't work so great if you miss. The Jets have solid hits with Revis, Harris, Keller and Green. There's still no reason to believe that Sanchez can't develop into a solid QB over time.

 

[mgteich]

Why? Most of this board had Revis and Harris as targets for the 2007 draft. Many wanted Gholston in 2008 (he is a mediocre starter); and they got Keller their TE is 2008. In 2009, we all discussed the quartebcaks. Many had Snchez as the #1 Qb in the draft, surely worth a 5-15 pick if a team needed a quarteback. Shonn Green was considered a top runner by lots of folks.

The jets ended up with TWO player in the first five rounds in 2007 and 2009. In 2008, they also targeted two players but did end up with a 4th and 5th. The point is that is a strategy that I have never seen tried by the patriots. We have a very different strategy in our drafts.

Would we prefer the quality the jets got in 2007-2009 or what we got? In the end, it is quality vs. quantity.

seems more of a scouting success story than a strategy success story

 

[mayoclinic]

Why? Most of this board had Revis and Harris as targets for the 2007 draft. Many wanted Gholston in 2008 (he is a mediocre starter); and they got Keller their TE is 2008. In 2009, we all discussed the quartebcaks. Many had Snchez as the #1 Qb in the draft, surely worth a 5-15 pick if a team needed a quarteback. Shonn Green was considered a top runner by lots of folks.

The jets ended up with TWO player in the first five rounds in 2007 and 2009. In 2008, they also targeted two players but did end up with a 4th and 5th. The point is that is a strategy that I have never seen tried by the patriots. We have a very different strategy in our drafts.

Would we prefer the quality the jets got in 2007-2009 or what we got? In the end, it is quality vs. quantity.

Again, either approach works well if you hit on your targets. We had a lot of misses in 2007-2008, including some 2nd and 3rd round picks that haven't done much so far (Wheatley, Crable, O'Connell, Brace, Tate and McKenzie, wheather due to injury or ineffectiveness) and a lot of mid-late round misses (Kareem Brown, Clint Oldenberg, Mike Richardson, Justice Hairston, Justin Rogers, Oscar Lua, Mike Elgin and Bo Ruud). It looks a lot better when you hit on your picks (Jake Ingram, Myron Pryor and Julian Edelman). It remains to be seen how Tate, McKenzie, Ohrnberger and Bussey work out.

Given the amount of talent available in free agency, there's something to be said for trading your mid round picks to target guys earlier in the draft, and then stocking up on depth through free agency. We'd done better with UDFAs (Neal, Wright, Alexander, Woods, Hoyer, Guyton, and UDFAs cut by other teams such as McGowan and Lockett) then we have through the late rounds of the draft, until 2009, with some rare exceptions (Brady and Cassel being the biggest ones).

 

[Jimke]

The open question is whether we would happy with a draft of two blue chippers and a some 6th and 7th round hopefuls. We might hit on both (as the jets did with Revis and Harris) or we might whiff. Ochmed has suggested McClain and Cody. Personally, I could go either way.

I would certainly be celbrating with McClain, Cody and almost nothing else. This option can be made possible by team actions in re-signing players, tendering players, franchising players and in picking up players in free agency. In the end, Belichick like to come into the draft with as few current needs as possible.

===========================
We should be able to trade 1st and 2nd to move up for a blue-chipper.
We should be able to trade 2 seconds and a fourth to move up for a blue-chipper.

The value is there both in the 10-20 range that we would move to. The cost wouldn't be terrible. We're not talking about the top 7 picks after all.

The value is also there if we say where we are and even trade down abit picking up a 3rd and a 5th.

Would the Patriots want to pay one blue-chipper much less two?

 

[mayoclinic]

Would the Patriots want to pay one blue-chipper much less two?

The price for a 10-20 prospect is not that prohibitive. However, we haven't every done that. The closest we came was 2003/2004. In 2003 we had picks 13 and 19, and we traded back to 36 with the #19 pick. We took both 1st round picks in 2004, but they were 21 and 32. We had 10 and 31 in 2008, but the commish took 31 away from us for Spygate.

 

[Metaphors]

The Jets are actually pretty well positioned for long term success. They have the #1 defense in the NFL with no major holes, and the #1 running attack in the NFL with a solid offensive line and nice depth at RB between Jones, Green and Washington. They have decent receiving weapons with Edwards and Keller. If Sanchez develops, they should be a legitimate playoff contender for some time.

Wow. That is a glass-3/4-full perspective.

"no major holes"...except safety, non-Revis corner and NT
"solid offensive line"...Woody (32yo), Faneca (33yo), each with 11+ seasons
"depth at RB"...Jones (big bonus due in spring), Green (rookie), Washington (FA)
"decent receiving weapons"...Edwards (FA)
"If Sanchez develops"...There are about a dozen teams saying something similar

Your perspective is totally legitimate, but it is probably just as likely (or more likely) that the Jets take a step back next year, their lines get a little older and more brittle, their contract situations (assuming a cap) get more problematic and the NY fans/media start to turn on the team.

Either strategy works pretty well if you hit on your targets. Both don't work so great if you miss. The Jets have solid hits with Revis, Harris, Keller and Green. There's still no reason to believe that Sanchez can't develop into a solid QB over time.

Revis is a stud, Harris is solid, Keller has great potential but is underutilized and Greene is a rook with a quarter of his total yards coming in that Raider embarrassment. As for Sanchez, he has had some flashes but he hasn't shown much reason for optimism. Barely 50%, only games over 200 yds, and a boatload of crushing interceptions.

I would agree with you that if Sanchez takes a giant step forward next year, the Jets are in a contention window. I just don't share your optimism that it will actually happen.

If you apply the same sunny outlook to the rest of the league, there are a lot of teams on the upswing.

 

[mayoclinic]

Wow. That is a glass-3/4-full perspective.

"no major holes"...except safety, non-Revis corner and NT
"solid offensive line"...Woody (32yo), Faneca (33yo), each with 11+ seasons
"depth at RB"...Jones (big bonus due in spring), Green (rookie), Washington (FA)
"decent receiving weapons"...Edwards (FA)
"If Sanchez develops"...There are about a dozen teams saying something similar

Every team has holes in today's NFL with the salary cap, even those that win SBs. It's all relative.

The Jets defense is essentially solid. They could use depth at NT and a CB opposite Revis, but that's pretty minimal compared to what most defenses need. There's always room to upgrade, but their defense was the best in the NFL this year, even with the loss of Kris Jenkins.

I'm not saying that Jets are anything phenomenal. But they've built a solid nucleus of a team around a playmaking defense and a punishing running game. That's not a bad way to build a team.

Your perspective is totally legitimate, but it is probably just as likely (or more likely) that the Jets take a step back next year, their lines get a little older and more brittle, their contract situations (assuming a cap) get more problematic and the NY fans/media start to turn on the team.

Revis is a stud, Harris is solid, Keller has great potential but is underutilized and Greene is a rook with a quarter of his total yards coming in that Raider embarrassment. As for Sanchez, he has had some flashes but he hasn't shown much reason for optimism. Barely 50%, only games over 200 yds, and a boatload of crushing interceptions.

I would agree with you that if Sanchez takes a giant step forward next year, the Jets are in a contention window. I just don't share your optimism that it will actually happen.

If you apply the same sunny outlook to the rest of the league, there are a lot of teams on the upswing.

It's absolutely possible for the Jets or any team to take a step backwards. Injuries, contracts, player losses, poor performance can all take a toll. That's today's NFL. All you can do is try to build a solid nucleus for the long term, and the Jets have done a good job of doing that.

I'm not a Jets fan in any sense of the word, but it would be stupid to ignore that they've made some good moves, hit on some of the key players they've targetted at important positions, and done a good job of building a competitive team. That will make it all the more satisfying to beat them in the years to come.

 

[SunnyDenmark]

I see tremendous opportunity for BB to move up in this draft. This is a very deep draft. There are going to guys with third round grades available well into the fifth round. Teams know this and the smart ones will multiple holes in their roster will want to stockpile draft picks.

BB can approach Denver or San Fran and make a move because there will be guys with 1st round grades available in the second round.

If BB wants to do like the Jets and target 2 players early, Mt. Cody and McClain for example, then this is a draft to do that because he is loaded with second round picks and can even use our 2011 1st as well, since we have Oakland's.

Ochmed - I had to re-read your reply several times to get the meaning- but it is a sound one. True, coaches like Mangini will undoubtably take the trade down path (like in 2009 draft) and get 1st round talent in the 2nd round by trading down -plus stockpiling extra picks for later rounds as that team has multiple holes to fill. By why I had a trouble comprehending your message is that it sounds so un-Belichick as is against the concept of value.

When one says it is a deep draft - (1st round talent in 2nd round ) so lets trade up in the first round? Where is the value in that? (of sacrificing picks when if you just stand pat you get 1st round talent anyway without moving up? ) Let the draft come to you - and then the talent just falls into your lap. The value of 1st round picks is not good : both $$ as well as TC holdouts and the primadonna attitude that some first rounders feel by being chosen so high.

Some say well the cost of players (first round 10-20) is not so prohibitive. True, but when (like in 2009) Patriots can sign all its four - 2nd round draftees for the same cost of just ONE first rounder. Move back from the first round , collect several 2nd rounders (for the same price and roughly same talent level) and then let the odds (of draft hits / misses) work in your favor. As if - lets say hypothetically 60-70% chance of a draft 'hit' for a first day pick (30-40% for bust) then better to have 3-4 guys drafted in first 2 rounds than just 2 guys. Not to mention the injury factor (don't have all your eggs in just a few baskets). Same concept as in financial markets - diversify and spread out your risks. No one can be sure where your next big 'hit' or star player will come from - but if you drill alot of holes, then better the chance of hitting a gusher.

 

[cstjohn17]

I'm not a Jets fan in any sense of the word, but it would be stupid to ignore that they've made some good moves, hit on some of the key players they've targetted at important positions, and done a good job of building a competitive team. That will make it all the more satisfying to beat them in the years to come.

They have also spent money on free agents, hit on draft picks, bring in free agents, sounds like a good way to improve any roster.

 

[mayoclinic]

Ochmed - I had to re-read your reply several times to get the meaning- but it is a sound one. True, coaches like Mangini will undoubtably take the trade down path (like in 2009 draft) and get 1st round talent in the 2nd round by trading down -plus stockpiling extra picks for later rounds as that team has multiple holes to fill. By why I had a trouble comprehending your message is that it sounds so un-Belichick as is against the concept of value.

When one says it is a deep draft - (1st round talent in 2nd round ) so lets trade up in the first round? Where is the value in that? (of sacrificing picks when if you just stand pat you get 1st round talent anyway without moving up? ) Let the draft come to you - and then the talent just falls into your lap. The value of 1st round picks is not good : both $$ as well as TC holdouts and the primadonna attitude that some first rounders feel by being chosen so high.

Some say well the cost of players (first round 10-20) is not so prohibitive. True, but when (like in 2009) Patriots can sign all its four - 2nd round draftees for the same cost of just ONE first rounder. Move back from the first round , collect several 2nd rounders (for the same price and roughly same talent level) and then let the odds (of draft hits / misses) work in your favor. As if - lets say hypothetically 60-70% chance of a draft 'hit' for a first day pick (30-40% for bust) then better to have 3-4 guys drafted in first 2 rounds than just 2 guys. Not to mention the injury factor (don't have all your eggs in just a few baskets). Same concept as in financial markets - diversify and spread out your risks. No one can be sure where your next big 'hit' or star player will come from - but if you drill alot of holes, then better the chance of hitting a gusher.

There are lots of places to find "value" in this draft.

Every mock that I look at, I start by looking at who is available in the 3rd round. I haven't seen a mock of 3 or more rounds yet where there weren't a bunch of solid borderline 1st/2nd round picks available in the 3rd round. I've had the same problem in the mocks I've been doing - there are just too many prospects to fit into the top 64 picks. Some very good players are going to slip. Almost every mock I've seen, we could start with a bunch of 3rd round picks and get a very decent draft.

That opens up a lot of opportunities. I'd love to see us trade to get back into the 3rd round. There are opportunities to trade up, because of the depth that is available later on, as Ochmed notes. And there are opportunities trading back.

I'd like to see us pick up at least one blue chip prospect with our first round pick, whether or not we trade up, and 4-5 legitimate red chip prospects in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

 

[mgteich]

The jets have done extremely well in drafting, in free agency and in picking a new coach. A team with a #1 running game (and two top RB's), the #1 defense (mostly young) and a top OL is indeed a team that is in good shape for the next few years.

Given that their defense is #1 and their running game iss #1, they don't need more than average passing game to be a top contender in 2010 and beyond. Sanchez poised to be at least an average nfl QB. The receivers aren't great, but free agency will help.

It seems that we will have real competition in our division of the coming decade. It will be very difficult to repeat our 7 out of 10 record for this decade. Five major contributers though the draft in three years (with two rookies this year) is phenominal. No team has won a playoff game with a rookie QB and a rookie rb running abck running for 100 yard, at least not since 1934. I would even note that Gholston and Lowery are contributers, although not the great picks the others were.
====================================
I have been a serious supporter of our drafts for the past decade. We both think that the 2009 draft was great. Perhaps, as great as it was, the jets did as well. This leads me to question our quantity over quality apporach. I have not changed my mind. I just think that we should reconsider.

2009 may have been the proof that Bleihcik's approaches works best. After all, he had two fine hits with Vollmer and Butler and has two 2010 seconds and few other players that may also score big.
==============================

BOTTOM LINE

I personally want us to re-sign LOTS of our free agents, sign 2-5 key mid-levle free agents (as we usually do) from other teams and then have few needs coming into the draft. Then, and only, can we really consider drafting two blue chippers that will likely contribute in 2010. I fear that if we have a similar draft to 2009, we should not be favored to win our division.
==================

THE JETS
You might consider what the jets team will look like if they repeat their 2009 results, adding a couple of free agents and trade their draft to move up for Cody and a second blue-chipper, perhaps a WR.

The Jets are actually pretty well positioned for long term success. They have the #1 defense in the NFL with no major holes, and the #1 running attack in the NFL with a solid offensive line and nice depth at RB between Jones, Green and Washington. They have decent receiving weapons with Edwards and Keller. If Sanchez develops, they should be a legitimate playoff contender for some time.

Either strategy works pretty well if you hit on your targets. Both don't work so great if you miss. The Jets have solid hits with Revis, Harris, Keller and Green. There's still no reason to believe that Sanchez can't develop into a solid QB over time.

 

[mayoclinic]

BOTTOM LINE

I personally want us to re-sign LOTS of our free agents, sign 2-5 key mid-levle free agents (as we usually do) from other teams and then have few needs coming into the draft. Then, and only, can we really consider drafting two blue chippers that will likely contribute in 2010. I fear that if we have a similar draft to 2009, we should not be favored to win our division.

I agree that we need to plug a bunch of potential holes before we can look at drafting "blue chippers". My fear is that if we don't adequately plug the holes, we will need to use the draft for depth instead of to add talent.

My ideal offseason at this early stage would look something like the following:

1. Franchise Wilfork and either trade him or re-sign him long term.
2. Hopefully resign UFA TE Ben Watson and CB Leigh Bodden, or replace them in FA. I'd much rather not use the draft to replace departed players. I really don't want to use a 2nd round pick on a CB or TE because we lost productive players who could have been resigned, unless the cost is truly prohibitive, given our other needs.
3. Tender Goskowski at the 1st round level or sign him to a long term deal.
4. Tender Mankins at the 1st+3rd level. If someone wants to sign him to a huge contract, take the picks. Resign Stephen Neal if possible for something like 2 years at reasonable money.
5. Consider re-signing Derrick Burgess, Jarvis Green and Kevin Faulk if it can be done for reasonable money (somewhere around 2 years at $2M each, give or take). I think this would take pressure off of having rookies fill critical roles right away. For example, with Burgess and TBC at OLB we could draft some high upside prospects and take a year or two to develop them. Similarly, we could draft a top OG to eventually succeed Neal, but not need him to start day 1.
6. Try and trade Adalius Thomas. He should have value in spite of everything. He's still one of the more talented LBs out there, and someone should be interested. I'd be thrilled to get a 3rd round pick.

Depending on who we lose, I could certainly see us bringing in a few mid-range FAs, especially for depth at WR. I would also like to see us add at least one FA at either ILB or as a DE/OLB pass rusher. The guy I would really like to see us get is Karlos Dansby, who would provide veteran leadership and would be an ideal SILB complement to Jerod Mayo at WILB, but I don't know what Arizona will due with him (they've franchised him twice and would have to pay him close to $10M to tag him this year, but I don't know if they would just let him walk) or whether the cost would be prohibitive. A pass rusher like Aaron Kampman (or Shawn Merriman, if he becomes a UFA) would be nice.

IF we manage to do all of that prior to the draft, then I think we are in good position to target one or more blue chip prospects.

- If we trade Wilfork, then we pretty much have to draft Terrance Cody or Dan Williams as a replacement (unless we sign a FA replacement such as Casey Hampton), but we will have extra picks to do so.
- If someone signs Logan Mankins then we pretty much have to draft a top OG prospect like Mike Iupati, but we will have extra picks to do so.

Otherwise, I think we can try to target one or more guys with the potential to be playmakers and impact players, with a particular emphasis on the pass rush and the OL/DL. I would be particularly interested in any (not necessarily all) the following:

- A "strong side" DE/OLB like Carlos Dunlap, Greg Romeus or Greg Hardy
- A "weak side" DE/OLB like Austen Lane, Jason Pierre-Paul or Sergio Kindle
- An OG to groom behind Stephen Neal such as Gabe Carimi, Vlad Ducasse, Mike Johnson or Mike Pouncey
- A RT to eventually complement Sebastian Vollmer, such as Brian Bulaga (1st round), Carimi or Ducasse (2nd round), Jared Veldheer (3rd-4th) or Chris Marinelli (3rd-4th)
- An all-purpose playmaker such as CJ Spiller, Jahvid Best or Dexter McCluster
- A 5 technique DE such as Corey Wootten, Arthur Jones or Jared Odrick

Assuming we pick in the 22-25 range, I think there's a good chance that a blue chip prospect such as a Spiller, Cody, Dunlap, Pierre-Paul or Bulaga falls to us, or at least to within range where a trade up can be done for reasonable cost.

 

[furley]

The Jets are actually pretty well positioned for long term success. They have the #1 defense in the NFL with no major holes, and the #1 running attack in the NFL with a solid offensive line and nice depth at RB between Jones, Green and Washington. They have decent receiving weapons with Edwards and Keller. If Sanchez develops, they should be a legitimate playoff contender for some time.

Yes, but they still must resign Edwards and Washington. Edwards would like to return, but Washington I would think is unlikely giving that fact that he'd turn down New York's last offer. Who knows how long it will take for him to fully heal, fully recovery from his compound fracture.

Thomas Jones will turn thirty-two before next season. Not taking anything away from Jones, but the Jets are a running team that runs and runs. If Sanchez indeed progress like Flacco. New York could become a more balanced team, running less. But it might depend too on the progression of Shonn Greene. Because the Jets weren't entirely behind the idea of bringing Jones back who'll be a free agent in 2011. But things changed when Washington went down for the season.

Davis Harris is a free agent in 2011 as well. But they don't have to deal with Sheppard until 2012 and Revis 2013.

Speaking of Revis, I recall during the 2007 draft that it was reported that New England tried to trade up to get him but were unsuccessful.

The draft that stands out to me for the Jets was the 2000 draft. They'd drafted Shaun Ellis, John Abraham and Chad Pennington in the first round, and Laveranues Coles in the third round. The Jets seem to be aggressive in their way of thinking when drafting and signing free agents. However, it hasn't lead them to reaching many Super Bowls. Actually, they haven't reached the Super Bowl since it was first referred to as the "Super Bowl." In other words, despite managing to have teams with talented players over the years. It takes more than that. It still hasn't come altogether for the Jets. Maybe, had Parcells not departed so soon... Who knows...

 

[mgteich]

Before I review the rest of your post, I wanted to stop to post STRONG AGREEMENT with your concerns.

I agree that we need to plug a bunch of potential holes before we can look at drafting "blue chippers". My fear is that if we don't adequately plug the holes, we will need to use the draft for depth instead of to add talent.

 

[mgteich]

I agree with all your pre-draft strategy. I would not worry as much this year about paying a lit bit more than normal to keep guys like Watson and Faulk.

Personally, I would go after Cody unless Wilfork had signed an extension. One year with both is fine. Trading Wilfork for a 1st is fine if he won't extend. The future of our defense is in the balance. We need a nose tackle for the future and 3-4 nose tackles take at least haf a year to develop. The time is now. And signing Casey Hampton is a fine option.

The Thomas situation is an interesting one. The OPEN question is the realtionship between Thomas and Belichick. Obviously if Belichick wants him gone, he's gone. If Thomas is worth $5M a year and a 3rd for someone else, he should be worth keeping. After all, if Thomas leaves, there will be a considerable hole in our defense. He played more than 50% of the reps this year in our top 10 defense. Obviously if we pick up Dansby or some other dream player, Thomas can be considered excess baggage. In any case, no decision NEEDS to be made about Thomas. He can be kept until the team is sure of his free agent replacement.

I agree that we need to plug a bunch of potential holes before we can look at drafting "blue chippers". My fear is that if we don't adequately plug the holes, we will need to use the draft for depth instead of to add talent.

My ideal offseason at this early stage would look something like the following:

1. Franchise Wilfork and either trade him or re-sign him long term.
2. Hopefully resign UFA TE Ben Watson and CB Leigh Bodden, or replace them in FA. I'd much rather not use the draft to replace departed players. I really don't want to use a 2nd round pick on a CB or TE because we lost productive players who could have been resigned, unless the cost is truly prohibitive, given our other needs.
3. Tender Goskowski at the 1st round level or sign him to a long term deal.
4. Tender Mankins at the 1st+3rd level. If someone wants to sign him to a huge contract, take the picks. Resign Stephen Neal if possible for something like 2 years at reasonable money.
5. Consider re-signing Derrick Burgess, Jarvis Green and Kevin Faulk if it can be done for reasonable money (somewhere around 2 years at $2M each, give or take). I think this would take pressure off of having rookies fill critical roles right away. For example, with Burgess and TBC at OLB we could draft some high upside prospects and take a year or two to develop them. Similarly, we could draft a top OG to eventually succeed Neal, but not need him to start day 1.
6. Try and trade Adalius Thomas. He should have value in spite of everything. He's still one of the more talented LBs out there, and someone should be interested. I'd be thrilled to get a 3rd round pick.

Depending on who we lose, I could certainly see us bringing in a few mid-range FAs, especially for depth at WR. I would also like to see us add at least one FA at either ILB or as a DE/OLB pass rusher. The guy I would really like to see us get is Karlos Dansby, who would provide veteran leadership and would be an ideal SILB complement to Jerod Mayo at WILB, but I don't know what Arizona will due with him (they've franchised him twice and would have to pay him close to $10M to tag him this year, but I don't know if they would just let him walk) or whether the cost would be prohibitive. A pass rusher like Aaron Kampman (or Shawn Merriman, if he becomes a UFA) would be nice.

IF we manage to do all of that prior to the draft, then I think we are in good position to target one or more blue chip prospects.

- If we trade Wilfork, then we pretty much have to draft Terrance Cody or Dan Williams as a replacement (unless we sign a FA replacement such as Casey Hampton), but we will have extra picks to do so.
- If someone signs Logan Mankins then we pretty much have to draft a top OG prospect like Mike Iupati, but we will have extra picks to do so.

Otherwise, I think we can try to target one or more guys with the potential to be playmakers and impact players, with a particular emphasis on the pass rush and the OL/DL. I would be particularly interested in any (not necessarily all) the following:

- A "strong side" DE/OLB like Carlos Dunlap, Greg Romeus or Greg Hardy
- A "weak side" DE/OLB like Austen Lane, Jason Pierre-Paul or Sergio Kindle
- An OG to groom behind Stephen Neal such as Gabe Carimi, Vlad Ducasse, Mike Johnson or Mike Pouncey
- A RT to eventually complement Sebastian Vollmer, such as Brian Bulaga (1st round), Carimi or Ducasse (2nd round), Jared Veldheer (3rd-4th) or Chris Marinelli (3rd-4th)
- An all-purpose playmaker such as CJ Spiller, Jahvid Best or Dexter McCluster
- A 5 technique DE such as Corey Wootten, Arthur Jones or Jared Odrick

Assuming we pick in the 22-25 range, I think there's a good chance that a blue chip prospect such as a Spiller, Cody, Dunlap, Pierre-Paul or Bulaga falls to us, or at least to within range where a trade up can be done for reasonable cost.