Dilfer: Patriots' offense 'exposed' last year

[tombonneau]

Top 5 offenses in terms of yards per game: Texans, Colts, Saints, Patriots, Chargers.

They were all shotgun based teams.

Green Bay at 7, mostly spread. Arizona at 12. Denver at 13, same offense as ours, pretty much.

Not doing bad for something that doesn't work, hey guys?

I'd be curious to see how much those top teams used the shotgun in the red zone. You always knew when the pats were going to score a td inside the ten last year: if they started off running it usually ended well; if it started in shotgun with five wide, warm up the Ghost.

 

[Deus Irae]

Top 5 offenses in terms of yards per game: Texans, Colts, Saints, Patriots, Chargers.

They were all shotgun based teams.

Green Bay at 7, mostly spread. Arizona at 12. Denver at 13, same offense as ours, pretty much.

Not doing bad for something that doesn't work, hey guys?

But people only remember the 2 times in a game where they sort of made a call correct. "Draw" is all they need to claim in order to be sure that they knew exactly what was coming. You'll notice that these people aren't making claims like "3 wideouts, 1 TE, 1 RB, RG pulls left, delayed draw to Faulk on the left side with the slot receiver banging down on the linebacker".

What's predictable is not the play being run, but the complaining about the playcalling being too predictable. Weiss was too predictable. McDaniels was too predictable. O'Brien is too predictable. And so on, and so on....

Of course, even pointing that out assumes that predictability is a bad thing, when that's not necessarily the case.

 

[patfanken]

BRAVO - Trent Dilfor - He hit the nail on the head. I know its hard to complain about an offense that ranked in the top 10 in just about every catagory. IIRC we even had the 11th best rushing numbers. But the fact we only scored 21 points in 2 of the last 6 games is a telling number.

The fact is that like most things in football, the more you see an offense or defense the better you are able to find ways to defend/attack it. The spread has had a great 3 year run, but in those key moments where the game hinges on making a particular play, too often lately we have seen we have seen the offense fail.

That being said, I feel the same way about the Jets #1 rated defense. Those Jet fans who automatically think that they will see the same results just because it worked so well last season will have FAILED to learn from history. The best example of this are the 85 Bears, who went from a record breaking D in 85 to out of the playoffs just TWO years laters. Teams caught up with the so called 4-6

Teams have now had a full off season to break down the schemes and tendencies of Ryan's D. And while I think it will still be one of the best D's in the league, Jet fans will find that at those key moments of the game, offenses will be a bit more effective than last season....and by 2011 (if there is a 2011) the cycle will start to turn, just like it has will the spread.

JMHO

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

The fact is that like most things in football, the more you see an offense or defense the better you are able to find ways to defend/attack it. The spread has had a great 3 year run, but in those key moments where the game hinges on making a particular play, too often lately we have seen we have seen the offense fail.

That's the key. The fatal flaw in the spread is that it's unreliable for success in those situations. Sure theres the potantial for a big gain but what you want is the most reliable occurance of a 1st down in those critical situations.

The same goes for our defense, MIA in critical situations since 2006. I'm hoping that the re-built D youth movement will have matured sufficiently for 2010.

 

[Nathan]

if they started off running it usually ended well

except when it ended with Maroney fumbling the ball at the 1

 

[captain stone]

Thank you, PFK & others who understand that the shotgun-based spread offense, and the minimal protection for one of football's most immobile QBs contained therein, when used more than 50% of the time is the offensive version of the prevent defense.

The losses to the Jesters, Donkeys & Doofins were the direct result of the inability of the offense to score TDs instead of FGs and to gain game-clinching 1st downs. One of the primary reasons for those inabilities? The over-reliance on the spread offense, and the neglect of the short-passing & smash-mouth offenses that are crucial for teams to score TDs & 1st downs, esp. in the RZ, and also esp. for teams who play outside & in the Northeast.

 

[Deus Irae]

That's the key. The fatal flaw in the spread is that it's unreliable for success in those situations. Sure theres the potantial for a big gain but what you want is the most reliable occurance of a 1st down in those critical situations.

The same goes for our defense, MIA in critical situations since 2006. I'm hoping that the re-built D youth movement will have matured sufficiently for 2010.

The Patriots were 8th in the league in 3rd down conversions in 2009. They were 7th in 2008, 2nd in 2007, 7th in 2006 and 8th in 2005.

 

[Deus Irae]

Thank you, PFK & others who understand that the shotgun-based spread offense, and the minimal protection for one of football's most immobile QBs contained therein, when used more than 50% of the time is the offensive version of the prevent defense.

The losses to the Jesters, Donkeys & Doofins were the direct result of the inability of the offense to score TDs instead of FGs and to gain game-clinching 1st downs. One of the primary reasons for those inabilities? The over-reliance on the spread offense, and the neglect of the short-passing & smash-mouth offenses that are crucial for teams to score TDs & 1st downs, esp. in the RZ, and also esp. for teams who play outside & in the Northeast.

The losses to the Jets and Dolphins were the direct result of Brady stinking out the joint. Trying to blame it on the offensive scheme is just ridiculous. The loss to the Broncos was a joint effort, with both sides of the ball failing to get the job done.

None of those losses were a result of the spread offense.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

The Patriots were 8th in the league in 3rd down conversions in 2009. They were 7th in 2008, 2nd in 2007, 7th in 2006 and 8th in 2005.

Seems like many of the 3rd down failures must have happened in the dreaded Red Zone where the critical difference was between 3 and 7 points.

 

[Deus Irae]

Seems like many of the 3rd down failures must have happened in the dreaded Red Zone where the critical difference was between 3 and 7 points.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but it's not because of the spread offense, although that may not be optimal inside the 20 when your key receiver is a smaller receiver like Welker. It's because the players didn't get the job done. Here's a piece on 2008, for an example, showing that the team fared quite well even under Cassel:

Finding the Winning Factors - Red Zone Efficiency - Stampede Blue

Here's the final data on 2009:

Seattle Post-Intelligencer: NFL/Football

So the Patriots were in the middle of the pack in TD percentage, and tied for 5th in overall TDs inside the 20, despite Brady's struggles (remember that first Jets game with the missed pass to Edelman, for an example), the lack of a WR3 worth a damn, the absence of Welker for a couple of games, and the notorious Maroney fumbling. Don't get caught up in the notion that it's all about the scheme. It's about players and execution. Or, to put it another way....

Mike Vrabel might have been missed nearly as much for his tight end play near the goal line as for his OLB play last year.

 

[lillestroom]

if they started off running it usually ended well

except when it ended with Maroney fumbling the ball at the 1

Funny x 10. PMSL

 

[lillestroom]

Always injured. Hard to catch a pass when you can't get on the field.

Check your stats. He wasnt.

 

[Snake Eyes]

But people only remember the 2 times in a game where they sort of made a call correct. "Draw" is all they need to claim in order to be sure that they knew exactly what was coming. You'll notice that these people aren't making claims like "3 wideouts, 1 TE, 1 RB, RG pulls left, delayed draw to Faulk on the left side with the slot receiver banging down on the linebacker".

What's predictable is not the play being run, but the complaining about the playcalling being too predictable. Weiss was too predictable. McDaniels was too predictable. O'Brien is too predictable. And so on, and so on....

Of course, even pointing that out assumes that predictability is a bad thing, when that's not necessarily the case.

Why would being predictable ever be a good thing?

 

[Deus Irae]

Why would being predictable ever be a good thing?

Vrabel lined up as a TE in goal line situations. Teams knew that he was going to catch a TD pass. How did that predictability make that a bad thing?

Predictability is fine, as long as you execute properly. Just ask the Redskins and their opponents during the first Joe Gibbs tenure.

 

[Off The Grid]

Don't worry, what Dilfer says really isn't all that negative, but believes the spread doesn't work in the NFL.

Dilfer also goes out on a limb and says Hernandez is his

Dilfer: Patriots' offense 'exposed' last year - AFC East Blog - ESPN

Oh, I'm not worried: I liked Dilfer as a player, but he is one STUPID SOB.

THIS is the same Chump who ~ just 9 months ago, if you recall ~ was advocating that we dump our Spread Formation in favor of a Bombs Away approach. And now he's trying to breathe credibility into that indescribably asinine statement, 9 months later. What an A HOLE. I'll take Coach Bill II's Brilliance and Creativity over Dilfer's moronic 16th century approach, thank you VERY much.

 

[Off The Grid]

Top 5 offenses in terms of yards per game: Texans, Colts, Saints, Patriots, Chargers.

They were all shotgun based teams.

Green Bay at 7, mostly spread. Arizona at 12. Denver at 13, same offense as ours, pretty much.

Not doing bad for something that doesn't work, hey guys?

THANK you, Brother Welsh!!

There were TWO problems with the Pats, last year. TWO.

1. Brady's Health and Rust.
2. A DEARTH of Weaponry.

Both problems ~ barring injury ~ are now HISTORY.

Dilfer is an incompetent @$$.

 

[Off The Grid]

But people only remember the 2 times in a game where they sort of made a call correct. "Draw" is all they need to claim in order to be sure that they knew exactly what was coming. You'll notice that these people aren't making claims like "3 wideouts, 1 TE, 1 RB, RG pulls left, delayed draw to Faulk on the left side with the slot receiver banging down on the linebacker".

What's predictable is not the play being run, but the complaining about the playcalling being too predictable.

BEAUTIFUL.

 

[everlong]

What having Gronkowski and Hernandez will allow the Patriots to do is be flexible on the play calling based on the defensive personnel. If a team goes dime on 2nd and 9 both of these guys can block out of the spread and control the edge which should allow Taylor and Maroney to be much more effective especially with cutbacks.

The Pats could also do the exact opposite. Pack it in and go play action and hit one of these two down the middle of the zone.

They should become much less predictable but I still think we'll see a lot of spread. We just need O'Brien to be creative enough to take advantage of the new toys.

 

[N.Eman]

if the TEs can catch the ball, they will be used.

I agree, having TE's up the middle makes the spread formation stronger against any D. !!!

 

[Nathan]

It should be interesting to see what happens in Denver this year. With the Tebow pick it seems like McD is going all in on the spread, trying to be the Urban Meyer of the NFL if you will.

I'm not really a Tebow fan (obviously needs a lot of work, let's not go there in this thread) but his size and power should address some of the red zone problems we saw in New England last year. He can scramble and easily bowl over a nickleback so 5 wide from the 5 yard line won't be all or nothing like we've seen with the Pats.

So, regarding Dilfer's comments, I think we'll have a verdict at the end of this year (assuming Tebow takes over sometime midway through the season, which I have a suspicion he will) whether the spread as a base offense is truly viable at the NFL level or if it's something where you need to integrate spread concepts into a more traditional offense like they've done in New Orleans.

I also say keep an eye on Tennessee, they ran some shotgun spread zone read plays to good effect last year after VY took back over.