As of right now, I'm feeling the 3 Bs at 23: Barwin, Beatty & Butler.
I don't want any QBs on Day 1 (now = 2 rounds);
I don't want any WRs on Day 1;
I don't want any TEs on Day 1;
I don't want any RBs on Day 1;
There are no interior OL-men worthy of 23;
I don't want any WILBs on Day 1 - that means you, Clay Matthews (who's going to Houston, anyway);
There are no SILBs worthy of 23, incl. Maualuga, Cushing & Laurinaitis;
I don't want any FSs on Day 1, exc. for CB/FS Sean Smith;
There are no SSs worthy of 23;
There are no NTs worthy of 23, unless Raji falls;
I don't want a DE at 23, there'll be more later.
That leaves 3 positions where need meets value: OT, OLB & CB.
JSmith & Monroe will be long gone, and I want nothing to do with either Oher or esp. ASmith. That leaves Beatty vs. Britton, and it seems that Beatty has the better chance of becoming a quality starting LT than Britton does, and I like Britton - a lot. Beatty's showing on his pro day dispelled most of the doubts I had about his strength & desire.
There are a lot of OLB prospects worthy of 1st/2nd-round selection - more than I can ever remember. And exc. for Sintim, all of them are conversion projects. So why not choose the one who has proven that he can successfully convert not only to a new position, but to a new side of the field? Barwin's combination of versatility, athleticism, smarts, size, selflessness & motor is absolutely amazing. Besides experience, my only other concern is his strength, but I am not at all concerned about his commitment to improve there.
At the start of the draft process, it was thought that V Davis & M Jenkins were sure-fire top-half 1st-rounders, and that Alphonso Smith & DJ Moore were sure-fire bottom-half 1st-rounders. But the more people saw Smith & Moore, the less they actually saw; and they just do not run well enough to compensate for their smallish sizes, at least as far as using the 23rd - or maybe even the 34th - overall pick on either of them. Sean Smith is a most intriguing player who, if he ever reached his full potential, could almost control by himself one entire half of the field. He also seems to have the fluid hips & COD ability required of a shut-down CB, but does he have the instincts, consistency, maturity & physicality required of a professional? Except for the physicality, Darius Butler seems to have all of those traits, plus the hips & COD. What he lacks, besides Sean Smith's size, is proof of being a playmaker: 0 INTs during his senior season. Unless Davis or Jenkins drops to 23 (unlikely but not impossible), Butler is the logical best CB available.
So as I've said, for me it comes down to Beatty, Barwin & Butler. What it also comes down to, for me, is: who and how many of the OTs, OLBs & CBs are chosen by the 23rd pick, and how many at those positions might be left by the 34th. For instance: if Oher, A Smith & Britton are all still on the board at 23, then I might hope that Beatty lasts until 34. If 3 of E Brown, Cushing, Maybin, Matthews & M Johnson are still on the board at 23, then I might hope that Barwin lasts until 34. This could turn out to be white-knuckle game of chicken played with the 10 picks between 23 and 34.