Common games tiebreaker: versus Balt & SD

[Isaac]

For those thinking ahead to the all-important #2 seed, I broke down the common games tiebreaker versus Balt & SD. This is the 3rd tiebreaker, so the Patriots would have to have an equal conference record for this to matter (http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers).

Versus Balt
2nd tiebreaker, AFC record: Baltimore is 5-1 in-conference, Pats are 5-3, so the common games won't matter unless Balt loses two in-conference. All of their remaining games are in-conference (Pittsburgh X 2, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Cleveland, Buffalo).
Common games:
Oct 9 @Denver Lost (Pats loss)
Nov 5 Cincinnati Won (Pats win)
Nov 12 @Tennessee (Pats to play)
Nov 30 @Cincinnati
Dec 31 Buffalo (Pats win X 2)
Current: Balt 2-1, Patriots 3-1
Remaining: Balt - Cinci and Buffalo; Pats - Tenn.
Summary: If the Patriots beat Tennessee, Balt. needs to beat Cinci and Buffalo for a common-games tie (and it would move onto strength of victory, ugh!).

Versus SD
2nd tiebreaker, AFC record: SD is 6-2, Pats 5-3, so SD has to lose one of their remaining AFC games (Buffalo, Denver, Oakland, KC) for common games to matter.
Common games:
Sep 17 Tennessee Won (Pats to play)
Nov 12 @Cincinnati Won (Pats win)
Nov 19 @Denver Won (Pats loss)
Dec 3 @Buffalo (Pats win X 2)
Dec 10 Denver
Current: SD 3-0, Patriots 3-1
Remaining: SD - Denver and Buffalo; Pats - Tenn.
Summary: If the Patriots beat Tennessee, SD needs to lose to Denver or Buffalo to force a tie (and then it would move onto strength of victory).

Moral of the story: go Buffalo! A win over the Bears would really help the strength of victory too.

Let me know if I've made any errors/omissions.

 

[braveht]

Vs Bal
If we lose to Chi(or DEt) is the only way str of victory enters, since for them to tie in conf gives them a better record.

 

[5 Rings for Brady!!]

I think for us to worry about playoff seedlings is really overrated simply because we want to avoid playing Denver and the Chargers, so the fourth seed for us may turn out great. I wouldn't be surprised to see a scenario develop where we and the Ravens are both fighting to get the final seed instead of the third seed.

But thanks for the update anyhow, it's good to know! I just don't worry much right now because I may want the fourth seed.

 

[shakadave]

Basically you get punished for winning vs. the NFC. Baltimore "luckily" for them has already lost to an NFC team. SD is 2-0 so far. The only way we go beyond tiebreaker #2 with Baltimore is if we lose to the Bears (or Lions!).

So we pretty much lose tiebreakers this year. To beat Baltimore or SD in the standings we'll probably need to win more games than them. Ditto for finishing ahead of Denver. True Bal or SD could yet lose to an NFC, so I'm jumping the gun somewhat.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

Let's suppose at worse the Pats will end up at 12-4.

All the teams in the West DEN, SD, KC still play each other one more time, in order for them to end up at 12-4, the Charges would have to go 4-2 (very plausible) the Broncos would have to go 5-1, and KC 6-0. I think that they are going to bet up on each other so that the winner will be 12-4. However San Diego still has to go to Buffalo would can be a trap.

I don't think we have to worry about Baltimore, they actually have some real teams coming up they have to play the Steelers twice and Cinncy. They will end up 11-5 at best.

If the Pats can run the table they will be the #2 seed. One loss and they are looking at tiebreakers with San Diego.

 

[brady2brown]

Basically you get punished for winning vs. the NFC.

No, if you win four against the NFC, and the other team only wins two of four, you are two games up on the other team. There isn't any tiebreaker scenario where you can do better by losing a game, AFC or NFC.

It isn't winning NFC games that hurts you, it is losing games. Any games. Win more of them than the other team and you don't need tiebreakers.

Sure, you don't want to lose division/conference games, but losing NFC games ain't going to help that out.

See who is punished if we win 4 NFC games and Baltimore/SD/whoever loses 4 NFL games.