Chris Harris: Broncos Defense has No Weaknesses

[Angelpats]

I hope when we face them they are not only the #1 defense but one of the best all time because I would like to hear all the excuses they lost when we blow them out.

 

[Oswlek]

Maybe we should discuss specifics: their run D is better than 2 years ago, and our offensive line is worse than two years ago.

Their run D is third best right now, was 7th best in 2013.

Our rushing offense was 9th best in yards then, is 31st now.

I agree that NE is more likely to do spread Denver out, but your evidence is faulty. The yards were higher then because they had to be. With Gronk gone, injured rookies and a hobbled Amendola, you had little choice but to run. To their credit they did a solid job at it, but it isn't because the OL was better than this group. In fact, the OL was a trouble spot in 2013, particularly on the interior. It's no surprise that they put 3 fourth rounders into those positions the past two years.

Once the injured guys return, I expect this group to be a good deal better than two years ago....but they'll still pass.

 

[BelichickFan]

Yes, and OTOH we have a low number of attempts because we were in situations where we were not successfully running the ball. (Except with the Jets where we didn't even try). I'm not saying we suck running the ball, I agree that 31 is undervaluing us, but we aren't a powerhouse running team, and Denver run D is a powerhouse run D.

You just don't know with the Patriots.

Denver is averaging allowing 3.7 YPC, #1 is Jacksonwille at 3.5. Blount and Lewis were 26-115 against them. OTOH, the Jets are the same 3.7 YPC and we didn't even try. Safe to say, anyone who thinks they know really doesn't.

Having no Solder hurts us, clearly. OTOH Stork is a better run blocker than Andrews, depending what we do at Center and when Mason returns our run blocking could improve up the middle.

 

[neuronet]

I agree that NE is more likely to do spread Denver out, but your evidence is faulty. The yards were higher then because they had to be. With Gronk gone, injured rookies and a hobbled Amendola, you had little choice but to run. To their credit they did a solid job at it, but it isn't because the OL was better than this group. In fact, the OL was a trouble spot in 2013, particularly on the interior. It's no surprise that they put 3 fourth rounders into those positions the past two years.

Good points, except I don't buy that our OL was worse in 2013 than now. We are pretty hobbled.

 

[Oswlek]

Good points, except I don't buy that our OL was worse in 2013 than now. We are pretty hobbled.

Yeah, I just added an edit about that.

 

[saspack]

Denver has the best D in the league points allowed. Pats are about 9th best Not sure how you think we are anywhere near 2nd best or best.

Subtracting the points in garbage time, Pats D is indeed the least points allowed in the league. I think there was an article posted here not long ago talking about this.


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[tombonneau]

Actually, I think the Pats spread them out and run short slant passes and screens to take advantage of their aggressiveness. That is how Brady has picked apart Wade Phillips defenses in the past. Gronk and Lewis will likely have a big game against them.

Brady owns Phillips. Article from 2013, before Brady dropped 41 on Wade in playoffs.

Patriots have positive history against Wade Phillips defenses

When Houston arrived at Gillette Stadium for Monday Night Football, the Texans had one of the best all-around defenses in the NFL: allowing 18.4 points per game (fourth in the league), 332.6 total yards (sixth), 87.6 rushing yards (second), and a third-down conversion rate of 28.4 percent (first).

All Tom Brady & Co. did was carve up Houston for 42 points, 419 total yards, and 130 rushing yards, converting half of their 12 third-down opportunities.

It was a similar result in 2007, when Phillips, then with the Cowboys, and Patriots met for a Week 6 regular-season game of epic proportions — both teams came into the game at 5-0, and it was hyped to no end, with then-Dallas receiver Terrell Owens calling himself “the original 81,” a shot at Randy Moss, who was wearing No. 81 with New England, and telling fans to get their popcorn ready.
The only thing that wasn’t ready, apparently, was Phillips’s defense. Dallas had allowed an average of 285 yards to its first five opponents, and the Patriots came in to Texas Stadium and rolled up 448 yards, with Brady completing two-thirds of his passes for 388 yards, five touchdowns, and no interceptions.

New England won, 48-27.

In 2006, Phillips was the coordinator for a 14-2 Chargers team that had rolled to the top seed in the AFC when New England arrived in San Diego for a divisional-round matchup.

Brady had to make do that season with a second-rate group of receivers and wasn’t in command of an offense like the ones we’ve become accustomed to seeing the last five or six years.

Statistically, the difference wasn’t that stark between what the Chargers had allowed and what the Patriots totaled that day, but the fact remained that a defense that had totaled 61 sacks and averaged nearly two turnovers per game that year couldn’t hold onto the lead — or a game-sealing interception — in the closing minutes.

Some of the problem for Phillips and his defenses simply could be playing against one of the best quarterbacks of this or any generation.

But in a fight of strength against strength, Brady against Phillips’s D, shouldn’t the results be more back and forth? The last time the Brady and Patriots lost to Phillips was Week 4 in 2005, when the Chargers came to Gillette and won, 41-17.

 

[manxman2601]

Denver has the best D in the league points allowed. Pats are about 9th best Not sure how you think we are anywhere near 2nd best or best.

The Patriots have conceded 133 points this season compared to the Broncos' 112. However, 49 of the points the Patriots have conceded have come after we've achieved a 99% probability of a win (i.e.. garbage time). On the other hand, the Broncos have only conceded 3 garbage time points.

So, excluding garbage time (99% probability of a win), the Patriots have only conceded 84 points compared to the Broncos' 109.

See the link for the full explanation.

Patriots Defense Playing Tremendously, but Garbage Time Skews the Stats

 

[Bruins29]

I know that teams are usually behind the Pats in games and the Pats are trying to run the clock, allowing longer clock killing drives. So, I understand that the points allowed does not always tell the whole story.

The Pats are also forcing teams to abandon a more balanced attack and try to be more agressive the keep pace with the Pats record offense. Obviously this is a big part of the first point above.

However, if the Pats had a regular, midpack offense, would they still have this elite D that wouldnt be in the position every game to protect leads and be in the same situations?

 

[patsinthesnow]

It's already proven that Chris Harris can't cover Edelman, and Talib struggles vs. shifty route runners (Hilton, Stefon Diggs, etc).

I know our focus will be Gronk/Lewis, but Phillips will pay IMO with island coverage on Edelman.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

I hope when we face them they are not only the #1 defense but one of the best all time because I would like to hear all the excuses they lost when we blow them out.

And not only that....but if the Pats prevail in this game, then it will be definitive proof that Brady is truly better than Aaron Rodgers....the same way that beating the Seahawks proved that he was better than Manning.

 

[Deus Irae]

What I find interesting is the respect inherent in comments like this one:

as much as I would like to agree lets all wait till the play the pats and then we’ll see because if they have a weakness belicheck and brady will find and exploit it.

 

[manxman2601]

I know that teams are usually behind the Pats in games and the Pats are trying to run the clock, allowing longer clock killing drives. So, I understand that the points allowed does not always tell the whole story.

The Pats are also forcing teams to abandon a more balanced attack and try to be more agressive the keep pace with the Pats record offense. Obviously this is a big part of the first point above.

However, if the Pats had a regular, midpack offense, would they still have this elite D that wouldnt be in the position every game to protect leads and be in the same situations?

That I can't answer, maybe not. But, to paraphrase BB, it's about building a team, not about a bunch of constituent parts. in other words, offence and defence don't exist independently of each other.

 

[Deus Irae]

...
However, if the Pats had a regular, midpack offense, would they still have this elite D that wouldnt be in the position every game to protect leads and be in the same situations?

Probably not

We've seen this before.

 

[Gronkowski123]

bill will expose them. find it hard to believe that bums like phillips/kubiak can outwit the hoodie!

as for harris, he's an arrogant jerk.

 

[Hammer of Thor]

Brady is 5-5 against Denver (Source: No team in the NFL has a winning record against Tom Brady ).

They were the last team to have a winning record on him, but he caught up with 4 straight wins.

At Mile High though, he is 2 - 4

Interesting stats. They only take into account the regular season though. If we include the postseason, he would have a losing record against both the Broncos (6-7) and the Giants (2-3). That's more useful in my opinion. Would be nice to get to .500 against them this month, fingers crossed. He's also only .500 against the Packers, that latest loss happening after the article was published (2-2).

 

[Bruins29]

Guys, we have some really great math experts on the site. Why not figure out a way to see if the Pats really:
--Do indeed have the best D
--Have the best D because of Garbage Time metrics
--Possibly dont because of the benefit of having an offense that puts other teams in more desperate risk taking situations.

I dont know if you can just throw out garbage time stats in favor of the Pats D because these garbage time stats are due to the Pats O. Now, obviously when BB rails on about "complementary football" we know what he is talking about. But, I am more curious if we can judge the Pats D against other Ds on an equal playing field.

 

[RayClay]

A defense doesn't have to have a "weakness" to have some unfavorable matchups. I like Talib against most receivers, but we really don't have that tall, fast deep guy.

Gronk or LaFell will crunch his skinny body, Edelman and Amendola will run through his legs. Talib becomes a Jag. The real question is, who are there 3rd, 4th and 5th CBs or safeties. Much like Seattle.

Ware is one of the great pass rushers at 33. However, how much stamina will he have if Brady is getting the ball out in 2 seconds or less a large part of the game? Two great pass rushers aren't a weakness, but our o line has faced great ones and it's because Brady has receivers who can read his mind by now and lots of quick opening plays.

And we have the X factor Lewis, who is just getting started IMO. He's a run or pass threat in any broken play and he must scare the crap out of teams with home run potential on every play. Faulk was great on the run play, getting positive yardage out of nothing. He was also a better receiver than Lewis, but the WTF factor is always there with Dion. Until someone finds tendencies with him, and I have as feeling he just doesn't have them, He can just stutter step or shoulder shake and defensive bodies are left grasping for air.

Two huge TEs with good hands, two best smurfs in football, a wrecking crew of Yac in LaFell, A huge back to drag the dead bodies over the 2nd half goal line and a little wizard that nobody has a clue what to do with yet, I'll guarantee.

No defense matches up to that, so we'll see what the broncs can do.

Broken play? Everyone covered? Call the wizard...

 

[TB_Helmet]

I'm more worried about their defense could play dirty and try to cause injuries. We all know Ward is one of the dirtiest out there. Miller has that attitude where he's right on the edge and if he gets frustrated I could see him doing something dumb. Not sure about Talib, I liked him when he played for us but he has an edge too and he could be more
motivated. Playing in Denver doesn't help.

 

[VrabelJr]

Our offensive line is worse than the 2013 AFC CG?!!! Where do we make this stuff up?

2013 AFC CG: Solder, Mankins, Wendell, Connolly, and Cannon/Svitek. Not to mention our super sexy backups Chris Barker and Josh Kline 1.0 (more on that in a moment)

Our line this year for the Denver game is likely:

Vollmer, Mason/Kline, Stork, Kline/Jackson, Fleming/Cannon

Fleming/Cannon is the only weakness, just like in 2013. Let's look at the rest:

Stork is a significant upgrade over Wendell

Mason is better against the run than Mankins at that point in his career. Especially because Mankins crapped the bed as he tends to do in the playoffs.

Kline 2.0 is better than Connolly and and a lot better than Kline 1.0.

Jackson is just the cherry on top.

Andrews to backup Stork is a side of gravy if you need it.

The Broncos also had Terrence Knighton who was great against the run and pulverized Wendell. We play against Knighton's new team tomorrow. Let's see how Andrews does.