Chatham: New England prepares for New Indianapolis

[SVN]

http://www.footballbyfootball.com/column/new-england-prepares-for-new-indianapolis

good read

The addition of Jones, and the potential absence of Bryan Stork at center (and the o-line shuffling that's then required by the Patriots) make it even more of a question mark on what the Patriots offensive approach might be. The Colts return a valuable run defender and the Patriots may have lost a valuable run blocker... that in itself is enough to question the idea that New England will simply try to reproduce the same game-plan as before, something they rarely do anyhow. The Patriots will try to run the ball more against the Colts than they did against the Ravens, but that's not saying much (14 yards on the ground against Baltimore). They likely enter the game with a plan to run, but the ability to pivot if the Colts prove they have indeed fixed their issues.​

 

[RobertWeathers]

I agree with him. Pats will win but it'll be closer than people are thinking.

 

[BelichickFan]

Herron may be better than Richardson but he's no Bradshaw and Bradshaw played into the early 4th quarter in that game. I don't remember when Allen got hurt but it's easily forgotten that Edelman missed more than half the snaps while managing a groin injury.

Maybe it'll be close. Maybe we'll lose. But I'm not buying the "Colts are way better" now line.

 

[patman52]

while they are not way better, they certainly are better with herron and Allen on Offense and Toler and Landry on D

 

[BelichickFan]

while they are not way better, they certainly are better with herron and Allen on Offense and Toler and Landry on D

They had Bradshaw last game. He's better than Herron. I forget when Allen got hurt but he started the last game. Landry is good against the run but Hooman might be able to beat him in a pass route.

 

[tmajr3]

If the Colts play Landry on Gronk he'll have 150 yards. Tower and Davis are battling injuries. Our offense needs to start hot, and I'm sorry but one player (A Jones) isn't going to help that putrid run D

 

[supafly]

Maybe it'll be close. Maybe we'll lose. But I'm not buying the "Colts are way better" now line.

Well, they definitely aren't worse with the additions of Allen and Jones, are they? I suppose it will depend on personal opinion, but I think we've seen other prime examples of teams that didn't light it up in December, only to get hot and gain some momentum at the right time in the postseason.

Whether they are better or worse doesn't really matter anyway (IMO). We all said that BAL didn't have any weapons last week and yet guys like Crocket Gillmore and Kamar Aiken contributed right from the get go. It's really all about what N.England team shows up for me. Hopefully, we can get the momentum early and never look back.

 

[strngplyr]

Well, they definitely aren't worse with the additions of Allen and Jones, are they? I suppose it will depend on personal opinion, but I think we've seen other prime examples of teams that didn't light it up in December, only to get hot and gain some momentum at the right time in the postseason.

Whether they are better or worse doesn't really matter anyway (IMO). We all said that BAL didn't have any weapons last week and yet guys like Crocket Gillmore and Kamar Aiken contributed right from the get go. It's really all about what N.England team shows up for me. Hopefully, we can get the momentum early and never look back.

I would have laughed BAL out of the stadium before the game was even played. Lessen learned there.

I still think the Colts' are being vastly overrated but its the AFCCG and they didn't get here by accident. I think we win by at least 7 and advance to a record tying 8th SB but I wouldn't be surprised if they gave us everything we could handle, just like Baltimore did.

Give me a healthy victory by 1 point and I'll be drunk off my ass at work on Monday not giving a damn about my "predictions" for this game.

Just win, baby!

 

[strngplyr]

I think that getting up on the Colts early is vital. Their defense has some really good players but if we score early Luck is mistake prone.

Mistakes don't seem to bother him, which is beneficial, he's like Favre, he makes a lot of mistakes BECAUSE they don't bother him, Manning makes his mistakes because he gets flustered, Brady on occasion does too, Luck's mistakes come from doing everything in his power, sometimes too much.

But the good thing for us is that our defense is opportunistic, they'll thrive off of that. He won't quit and go ultra conservative, he'll just sling it more giving us more chances to make defensive plays. It's what made Favre so great and why everyone seems to love Luck so far, they're gunslingers.

It's not panic though, which is why he's also dangerous.

I hate seeing luck compared to Manning because he's nothing like Manning.

 

[BelichickFan]

We all said that BAL didn't have any weapons last week and yet guys like Crocket Gillmore and Kamar Aiken contributed right from the get go.

We didn't all say that.

Forsett had the highest YPC among all qualifying RB at 5.4. And the receiving duo of Smith/Smith along with a solid TE was very dangerous.

Compared to the Forsett/Smith/Smith trio, only Hilton compares. The others, Herron, Allen, Fleener are nice players but . . .

There's a reason Football Outsiders had Baltimore's offense 9th (8th when factoring in more recent games more heavily) but they have Indy's at 17 (21).

 

[strngplyr]

We didn't all say that.

Forsett had the highest YPC among all qualifying RB at 5.4. And the receiving duo of Smith/Smith along with a solid TE was very dangerous.

Compared to the Forsett/Smith/Smith trio, only Hilton compares. The others, Herron, Allen, Fleener are nice players but . . .

There's a reason Football Outsiders had Baltimore's offense 9th (8th when factoring in more recent games more heavily) but they have Indy's at 17 (21).

I think we match up even better than we did (in theory) against Baltimore. It was shown in the mic'd up sessions that BB said they didn't do a single thing we didn't expect, we just executed against it poorly. Players tried to do more than just their own job, which is too much for anyone to handle.

I've read a few things saying that practices this week are about us instead of the Colts (so far) because as long as every player does THEIR job and their job only, they'll be fine. I tend to agree, our defense is as talented as nearly anyone in the league, they just need to focus.

I don't really like any metrics and prefer the eye test, Luck makes the plays for his receivers, including Hilton.

Their skill positions are even more average than Baltimore outside of Hilton.

If we can stack the box AND cover like we're capable of this game shouldn't be nearly as worrisome as Baltimore. I just don't think the Colts' are as "tough". They never show the "swagger" (and boy do I hate that word) that the Ravens do, ESPECIALLY against us. They collapse against us usually. Lets hope that trend continues, we ARE the better team and this is OUR game to lose.

 

[supafly]

We didn't all say that.

Forsett had the highest YPC among all qualifying RB at 5.4. And the receiving duo of Smith/Smith along with a solid TE was very dangerous.

Compared to the Forsett/Smith/Smith trio, only Hilton compares. The others, Herron, Allen, Fleener are nice players but . . .

There's a reason Football Outsiders had Baltimore's offense 9th (8th when factoring in more recent games more heavily) but they have Indy's at 17 (21).

While I agree with you that N.England should win, I also don't remember any year post-2006 aside from maybe last year where we didn't all believe that, and didn't go in as favorites.

For the record, I do agree with you that this week's game is a much better matchup than last week's (I was trying to be polite and humble by including the word "we," but anyone will tell you that my comments from last week were very concerned with the Ravens), but there is still that uncertainty that creeps up and will continue to do so until the game is played.

As others have said, N.England is certainly the better team in just about every category. Now they'll have to go out and simply execute it to their advantage. I am very happy to hear that we can afford the luxury to work on some of our own issues this week, due to having already gameplanned for the Colts previously.

 

[supafly]

One of the great things to take away from last week was the fact that the offense seemed to finally get back on track, by hanging up 35 pts and moving the ball well against a tough defense.

That's obviously a wonderful thing to see and hopefully they are just getting warmed up.

 

[Sticky Caulk]

Herron is starting to show some wear. His shoulder injury looked like it was becoming unbearable by the end of the Bronco game. He was struggling for yardage. I wouldn't be surprised to see him miss time during this game if he gets hit hard a few times. Tipton might get more carries than normal.

 

[varjao]

I was not expecting a massive running game anyway, first because Blount is not doing much, second Jones Gray is dealing with a injury/dog house and third and most important, in Chuck Pagano's list of priorities for this game the number one is "not being ran over by Pats running game again" , and that comes before the "win the game".

If he loses this game with another 200 yards shoved in their throat again he will be in the hot seat if not looking for a job, he's a fine guy and is getting winning seasons but people in Indianapolis are starting to questioning his coaching specially when he gets severely outcoached by BB.

 

[PP2]

Chatham is always a good read, thanks for the link OP.

I was somewhat thinking along the same line, that we would come out testing the run game. Pagano himself thinks so importantly of this issue that he said the other day that the Colts were finished if they couldn't stop the run.

I personally would like to see the run game established not just to give Brady a rest, but to also establish a good rhythm going into the superbowl.

 

[RIpats88]

I still dont see how the addition of jnes/landry somehow makes the rest of the defense "bigger" they are undersized which is why we have run all over them the past two meetings/Gronkowski has had a field day

 

[Patriot Missile]

Chatham is going places with his writing. One of my favorite must reads this season. Some former players can really bring the game of football full focus into their writing. Others not so much.

 

[IllegalContact]

don't be fooled......it's the same colts.....forget the playoff games against the worst playoff QB in NFL history (Dalton) and the QB with the most one-and-dones in NFL playoff history (Manning)

The colts are a team that has taken advantage of massive weaknesses....

since they've last played the pats, they've beaten the jags, redskins,browns,texans,titans, bengals, and broncos.........they got pasted by the cowboys in week 16......the cowboy passing game was 19-21 for 261 yards and 5 TD's

while the pats seemingly struggle against the ravens and it seems somewhat by design, that same design crushes teams like the colts.

stork or no stork, if the pats could put up 35 on the ravens, they can put up 50 on the colts.....

I'm not buying the colts...they're a bunch of frauds....they can't stop a decent offense....it's just that they've only faced one since last playing the pats

 

[Big-T]

Arthur Jones is one guy, if he lines up at RDE the Pats could just run behind Vollmer & Gronk/Fleming and over the Colts LDE instead.