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Chargers are neither the best offense or defense in the NFL

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Patspsycho, Oct 23, 2010.

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  1. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    Let's correct some misconceptions here- especially misleading stats.

    What does it mean to have the best offense? It would be points scored, right?
    Because the object is to have more points than the opponent after every game, correct?

    Since that is what decides a win or loss, not any other stat.

    In that regard, we ARE the #1 offense in the league, because we lead with 30.8 points per game.

    What the Chargers have is the most YPG, and most passing yards, and those are meaningless stats if you don't have more points than the opponents at the end of the game. What this stat suggests to me is that the Chargers are not finishing their drives, and that they are very turnover prone.

    And again, the Chargers do not have the best defense in the league- they only have the least yards per game allowed (and least passing yards allowed, which is a natural byproduct of the first stat), and the only thing that tells me is that the opponents are starting from very good field position, which is great news for us because we have one of, if not the best ST in the league. So you know we are going to capitalize on this, big time.

    Points are what decide outcomes of games, and in this regard, the Chargers are almost giving up as much points per game as we are. They are giving up 21 points a game, to our 23.2 points a game.
     
  2. Triumph

    Triumph Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #32 Jersey

    Totally agree.

    Moving up and down the field is meaningless unless you score points and preferably TDs. When the Ravens had to settle for a FG on the opening drive, it was basically a moral victory for the NE D.

    NE has scored the most points in the NFL.

    Pitt has given up the fewest points in the NFL.
     
  3. Chupacabra

    Chupacabra On the Roster

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    I'd imagine that giving up, or scoring, special teams touchdowns would skew the yardage totals. Especially with a small sample size of 5 or 6 games.

    I think the NE offense is much better than our offensive yards would indicate - given that we've scored 4 special teams TDs (and thus, 4 fewer offensive possessions).

    SD's numbers are probably skewed in the same way, though they are probably a good defense and an elite offense.
     
  4. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    This is totally false and misleading.

    The team leads the league in points scored at 30.8 points per game. However 5 of those TDs, occured on ST or def.

    The Patriots lead the league in most points scored per game.

    The Colts OFFENSE leads the league in most points scored on offense. The NEP is #6.

    The Patriots are tied for first place in most TDs scored while not on offense at 5. Tied with ARZ.
     
  5. DropKickFlutie

    DropKickFlutie Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    In terms of rankings, Chargers are top 5 offense and defense.
    The Cowboys supposedly have the best offense and defense in the league.

    Both teams only have a few wins combined between them.

    Just goes to show that even with loaded talent, inept head coaches like Norv Turner and Wade Phillips still manage to screw it up.
     
  6. Kasmir

    Kasmir Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    #75 Jersey

    You can use a statistical system that attempts to adjust for all this, like Football Outsider's DVOA. By that opponent-adjusted measure, the Patriot's offense leads the league in per-play efficiency, while the Chargers are 5th:

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | 2010 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

    Also note that the Pats defense is 27th while the Chargers' is 4th. The Patriot's special teams are 4th in the league while the Chargers are 32nd and last.

    Overall the Patriots are 3rd in the league at 29.0% DVOA while the Chargers are 13th at 10.6%. The special teams differential alone accounts for 27% disparity, i.e. If the Chargers somehow play even up Sunday in special teams they should easily win...
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2010
  7. BradyMossWelker

    BradyMossWelker Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Oh my god thank you. We really needed this thread. Didn't know this at all, cause there has never been another thread saying the same.
     
  8. ctpatsfan77

    ctpatsfan77 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #3 Jersey

    Actually, they're not only 32nd and last, I believe they're the worst since FO began tracking stats. ;)
     
  9. Steve:Section 102

    Steve:Section 102 Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    Why can I hear the Hoodie in my head telling me "stats are for losers"
     
  10. patsox23

    patsox23 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Dynamite post cabra. Great points, all. Hope you contribute more.
     
  11. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    This is why I love threads like this. I would never take the time (yeah, I'm lazy....so what!) to sift and get all this data. Besides most of the time I do make the attempt I end up giving at least one wrong stat.

    The point that SHOULD be taken here is NOT whether SD really has the #1 offense or not. But that SD has an offense that has proven it can move the ball on a consistent basis. Can we at least agree on that.

    The Pats have a defense that, while improving, is certainly not "there" yet. Playing at home usually increases the chances for offensive efficiency, while limiting it for the visiting team.
    This is the case in every road game (see I still have that keen sense of the obvious), but its even more critical when the team you face has a top notch QB, and SD does.

    Does it mean, the Pats will definitely lose the game. No. It just means that their margin of error will be even smaller than it was vs the Ravens. IIRC the Pats have created only 8 TOs on defense (7 picks-slightly above average - 1 fumble - below average) So the Pats cannot afford ANY TO's. And to expect SD to continue to give games away is nothing but wishful thinking.

    If the Pats ARE going to win this game, it will have to be their most flawless effort to date. Limited penalties, no TO's and minimum drop balls/missed open receivers
     
    Last edited: Oct 23, 2010
  12. TriplecHamp

    TriplecHamp Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    this, San Diego has the best offense in the NFL stat wise.
     
  13. mgcolby

    mgcolby Woohoo, I'm a VIP!!! PatsFans.com Supporter

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    So you bump a thread that you are complaining about???

    Just because a thread is exhists doesn't mean you have to open it. ;)

    :bricks:
     
  14. PatsChamp88

    PatsChamp88 In the Starting Line-Up

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    #75 Jersey

    Statistics are always skewed by the media
     
  15. everlong

    everlong Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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  16. convertedpatsfan

    convertedpatsfan PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Close. The special teams/defensive return TDs affect the team scoring totals, but not the yardage totals since that is kept separate.

    As for the OP, I agree with the spirit of it, though points scored can be misleading as others have pointed out. Also, field position and producing turnovers can affect scoring too. But it's a much better indicator than yards in terms of judging a defense. Unfortunately, that's the stat people point to for defense, and how offenses and defenses are ranked even on the league website.

    It's similar to how MLB lists batters by batting average, and not OBP. Even the oldest baseball fan is finally coming around to the advantages of OBP over batting average, but MLB still likes batting average. The problem isn't the stat itself so much as how much weight the league puts into it.

    As others have pointed out, there are other alternative ways of measuring things. The point really is not to get caught up in the numbers, but to use them to better understand things. Just as San Diego is not the #1 offense and the #1 defense, they are also a lot better than their 2-4 record indicates.

    Before the injuries to Gates and their WRs, I was really worried about this game. But I kept telling myself, "Norv Turner is coaching them," and I would relax.
     
  17. patsfaninpittsburgh

    patsfaninpittsburgh Banned

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    It's actually not false and misleading.

    Scoring several non offensive touchdowns deprives the offense of possessions and extends the defense time on the field.


    The five TD's equates to about 3/4 of a game of offensive football. As such, the addition back is required but in need of additioal stats.

    Passer rating, points per yard gained, and 3rd down conversion are probably the best stats because they promote offensive efficiency.
     
  18. TheGodInAGreyHoodie

    TheGodInAGreyHoodie Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Hypothecially:

    Week 1 of the season two teams meet.

    Neither team during the entire game manages to get a first down on offense.

    Team A throws 8 picks 6. Team B fumbles the ball 7 times each which is recovered by team A and returned for a TD.

    Team B wins 56-49.

    According to PPG: Team B leads the league in offense with team A coming in second. And Team A has the worst defense in the league followed by team B. (Assuming no other games that week had a score of 49 or higher).

    According to yards gained: Both teams are ranked as the two worst offenses and the two best defenses.

    Which measurement most fairly reflects what actually happened in the game?

    The idea that a ST/Def denies the offense a posession is silly. The most lucracy thing about this measure measurement is if the QB throws an int that is returned for a TD, it counts against the defense.
     
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