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If I have this calculated correctly, by the end of the day the Pats could any of the top 3 seeds.
Seed #1-
If Houston loses and the Pats win, both will be 11-3 and the
Pats take the #1 by virtue of head to head having won vs Houston last week. It doesn't matter what Denver does because even if they win to be 11-3 as well, the Patriots will have defeated both of them and head to head is first tiebreaker.
Seed #2 (current)
If the Patriots and Houston both win today, the Patriots (at 11-3) would be the #2 seed to Houston's 12-2. Even if Denver wins to be 11-3, Pats own head to head tiebreaker.
Seed #3-
If the Patriots lose and Baltimore wins, the Pats fall to the #3 seed. Houston would be #1 and the remaining three teams would be 10-4 BUT Baltimore would win the tiebreaker (first tiebreaker is head to head) since they would have defeated BOTH NE and Den. This drops the Pats and Den to #3 and #4 and Pats beat Denver so they would get the #3 seed.
Seed #3 scenario 2
If the Patriots lose and Denver wins, Houston and Denver are the #1 and #2 since Denver would have a better record 11-3 than the Pats' 10-4. Baltimore at 9-5 would be the #4 seed.
Seed #4 I can't envision any scenario ( including ties) where the Pats could end the day as the #4 seed.
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If I am wrong, I am sure somebody will correct me.
Seed #1-
If Houston loses and the Pats win, both will be 11-3 and the
Pats take the #1 by virtue of head to head having won vs Houston last week. It doesn't matter what Denver does because even if they win to be 11-3 as well, the Patriots will have defeated both of them and head to head is first tiebreaker.
Seed #2 (current)
If the Patriots and Houston both win today, the Patriots (at 11-3) would be the #2 seed to Houston's 12-2. Even if Denver wins to be 11-3, Pats own head to head tiebreaker.
Seed #3-
If the Patriots lose and Baltimore wins, the Pats fall to the #3 seed. Houston would be #1 and the remaining three teams would be 10-4 BUT Baltimore would win the tiebreaker (first tiebreaker is head to head) since they would have defeated BOTH NE and Den. This drops the Pats and Den to #3 and #4 and Pats beat Denver so they would get the #3 seed.
Seed #3 scenario 2
If the Patriots lose and Denver wins, Houston and Denver are the #1 and #2 since Denver would have a better record 11-3 than the Pats' 10-4. Baltimore at 9-5 would be the #4 seed.
Seed #4 I can't envision any scenario ( including ties) where the Pats could end the day as the #4 seed.
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If I am wrong, I am sure somebody will correct me.
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