Building an Unfair Defense for the Pats

[VJCPatriot]

This defensive build plan centers around creating unfair size and athletic matchups for the Pats front 7. Here's how the Pats draft would unfold to get the players needed for the scheme.

Round 1 - JJ Watt DE/Elephant. Watt is the most explosive DE in this year's draft. And his agility means that BB could also use him as a hybrid Elephant backer at times offering even more opportunities to confuse the offensive line and create mismatches. Because of Watt's rare athleticism and agility for his size, I can picture him being used in a role that BB probably wanted Peppers in. And remember that the Pats made a serious effort to recruit Peppers, reportedly 10m per year to join up. That would trump Wilfork as the highest salaried player on our defense.

#28 traded for a 40ish 2nd rounder and a future pick.

Round 2 - Kenrick Ellis DE/DT. Ellis is nimble for a man of his size, 330 lbs+ and he allows the Pats to keep Wilfork at the nose where he plays best. On rushing downs, the Pats don't give up any size and on passing downs, OL would have to focus more attention on him to prevent the collapse of the pocket.

Round 3 - Allen Bailey OLB/DE. Another candidate for the Elephant back position or possible replacement for Wright/Green in the rush end role on passing downs. Bailey is another athletic DL from the U that the Pats have worked out and are presumably watching closely.

Now how does this shake out on defense? Picture this if you will for the 3-4 look.

Warren-Wilfork-Ellis
Cunningham-Spikes-Mayo-Watt

The OL is essentially staring down at 4 DL, making it difficult to run to either side, particularly the stacked Ellis/Watt side. And yet with Ellis collapsing the pocket, that makes it even harder to contain Watt who can use his explosive step from the Elephant role to corral the ballcarrier or rush the QB.

Talking about explosion how do you measure it? Explosion would be a combination of Vertical Jump and Broad Jump. Agility can be measured by shuttle times and 3 cone times. Watt scores highly in both these categories while Bailey scored highly in the explosion tests. Judging from the numbers Watt is the most explosive and agile DL available in this year's draft.

Watt VJ 37" BJ 10' Shuttle 4.21 3 cone 6.88
Bailey VJ 36.5" BJ 9'9 Shuttle 4.56 3 cone 7.43

http://www.steelersdepot.com/2011/02/2011-nfl-combine-results/

Watt's explosion and agility numbers are even more remarkable when you compare them to the OLBs available in this year's draft. Keep in mind also that Watt measured in at over 6'5 and 290 lbs at the combine.

Aldon Smith VJ 34" BJ 9'10 Shuttle 4.50 Cone 7.19
Akeem Ayers VJ 31" BJ 9'8 Shuttle 4.28 Cone 7.49
Brooks Reed VJ 30.5" BJ 9'5 Shuttle 4.28 Cone 7.11
Jabaal Sheard VJ 31" BJ 9'7
Justin Houston VJ 36.5" BJ 10'5 Shuttle 4.37 Cone 6.95

In fact the only prospect who boasts better overall numbers in both categories is Von Miller, who weighs over 40 lbs LESS than Watt. Although Moch beats Watt in the explosion scores, Watt shockingly still beats Moch in the agility department!

Miller (246 lbs) VJ 37" BJ 10'6 Shuttle 4.06 Cone 6.70
Moch (248) VJ 42" BJ 10'8 Shuttle 4.38 Cone 7.09

Ok. That's enough about Watt. But wait, you may ask where Bailey fits into this picture. Well let's say we go to a 4-2-5 nickel look on an obvious passing down. You'd want to rest Wilfork, yet generate the most pressure you can from the front 4. Then your lineup would look like this.

Bailey-Warren-Ellis-Watt
Coverage LB-Coverage LB

In this scenario, I move Warren inside to Wilfork's nose spot. Ellis also clogs the middle and Bailey and Watt attack from the edges.

Top off this draft with a good nickel corner or cb/safety conversion to protect the middle of the field and you've built a stacked defense that will be formidable against both the run and the pass.

 

[MaineMan]

Sign Asomugha for RCB. Move Bodden to Meriweather's spot. Arrington as nickelback.

Then we have to do SOMEthing about that underperforming offense!

 

[VJCPatriot]

Sign Asomugha for RCB. Move Bodden to Meriweather's spot. Arrington as nickelback.

Then we have to do SOMEthing about that underperforming offense!

What are you talking about? Asomugha is out of our price range so scratch him off the list. It is quite realistic to acquire Watt, Ellis, and Bailey out of the same draft. Watt might require a slight move up but we have the ammo. With the trade down from 28 we will be in position to take Ellis and still have #33 to draft an OL.

The ideal draft would be to get Watt, Wilkerson, and Bailey. I'd consider Wilkerson a better prospect than Ellis with less character and weight concerns. However if we did that we're unlikely to have enough pick currency to get that kind of result and draft OL such as Watkins/Boling, etc. to replace Neal at OG. I think a decent nickelback can be acquired in round 4 or later of the draft.

 

[MaineMan]

Perhaps I should have used the [/snark] tag instead of ?

Or, y'know, maybe it really wasn't all that funny.

 

[stinkypete]

I say move up and try to get Jordan and Kerrigan. Both safe picks but explosive playmakers.

I think Kerrigan is the answer at OLB, my favorite prospect at the position since David Pollack. He's big, quick, relentless and productive. People talk of him as a 3 year project at OLB, but I see him as an instant DROY candidate.

I prefer Jordan over Watt because of Jordan's versatility. Watt may project as more of a pure 5-techique, but Jordan can also play end in nickel and 4-3 looks, he may even be fluid enough to occasionally drop into a short zone. With the team running 50%+ of its plays in sub packages, a full time 5 technique seems impractical at what it would take to get Watt.

Between the two, I see a defense that finally has a big time player at every position, rather than the collection of odds and ends we've been fielding the past 2 years. The depth and versatility would be outstanding. The toughness and physicality would return. Green Bay is the only team to feature a collection of young 3-4 talent to match Wilfork, Mayo, McCourty, Jordan and Kerrigan.

 

[upstater1]

What would you do with our two other second round picks?

 

[stinkypete]

What would you do with our two other second round picks?

To move up and take 2 guys in the teens would likely take #28 and #33, and would probably net us a mid round pick.

That would leave #60, which I would dedicate to the best OL available, unless Leonard Hankerson or a system-ready CB/S fell to that spot.

I see no reason to draft for quantity in this draft. It's not nearly deep enough. Make a power play, push a mid round pick or two for future years, and wait for the lockout to end and UDFA to begin to fill the rest of the holes. With those extra weeks-months of scouting, I expect some real UDFA gems to come up this year.

 

[CanadianPat'sFan]

That sounds like a great defense for 2012!! To have both Watt and Ellis on the same side both being rookies and one a conversion worries me. I like the Ellis pick and look forward to seeing him against NFL OL. I think he would be good value in the second round like you point out. With Spikes going into year two with Cunningham we would have a very young LB core but you never know.