Bubble boys on 75

[long distance]

Maybe tonight is a good time to see where we stand with our crossword puzzle due in less than 4 days.
I looked around at latest 53 projections and compiled what's closest to a probable roster by media & this board.

Probable players are in bold with the ones where there is considerable difference of opinion coloured grey.
The “bubbles“ eligible for PS are underlined.

QB (2) Garoppolo, Brissett
RB (4) Blount, White, Bolden (ST), Gaffney (ST?) / Foster (ST)
FB (1) Develin
TE (3) Gronk, Bennett, Derby / Harbor
WR (5) Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell, Martin (ST), Amendola* (PUP?) / Dobson (Carter)
OL (9) Solder, Thuney, Andrews, Kline, Cannon, Mason, Cooper, Waddle, Karras / Fleming
DT (4) Brown, Valentine, Branch, Kuhn / A.Johnson
DE (4) Sheard, Long, Ninkovich*, T Flowers / Grissom (ST), Rufus Johnson
LB (6) Hightower, Collins, Freeney, McClellin*, Mingo*, KGH*(ST) / E Roberts (ST)
CB (5) Butler, Ryan, Cy Jones, Coleman, J Jones (ST) / LeBlanc / D Roberts
S (6) McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Richards (ST), Ebner (ST), King (ST)
ST (4) Gost, Allen, Cardona, Slater

Going with majority opinion (including grey choices) and keeping projected numbers for particular positions
(with DE/LB positions interchangeable) we have some clear bubble battles:

@RB Gaffney / Foster (although both might make it if Bolden or White get cut as some project)
@TE Derby / Harbor (although both might make it if there are “grey“ cuts at other positions)
@WR Dobson can still make it if Amendola stays on PUP (or Carter if Dobson is traded)
@OL Karras / Fleming (both can make it but not probable considering talent elswhere)
@ DT Kuhn / A.Johnson (both or neither can make it)
@DE Grissom / R.Johnson (can't see Rufus making it given depth at DE/LB; Grissom hangs on his ST value)
@LB KGH / E.Roberts (KGH seems to have the edge w his speed + more difficult to make it through waivers)
@CB Coleman / J Jones / LeBlanc / D Roberts (I believe they go with 5 so 2 of these 4; J Jones showed great ST value; all eligible for PS w JJ arguably most difficult to pass)
@S Normally this is considered set but with hanging talent elswhere a cut here is possible (most probable King because he might have better chances to clear waivers + BB seems in love w Richards)
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With 46 projected locked or probable we can only keep 7 “bubble boys“.
If we count 1 for each position (4th RB, 3rd TE, 9th OL, 4thDT, 6th LB) and 2 for 4th&5th CB it is easy.
But what if we want to keep more than projected at certain position we have to cut the probables.
Let's say King for 4th TE, 5th DT or 7th LB etc.
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One thing I would consider (but BB might not) is clearing waivers.
@RB there was a lot of interest in spring for Foster for 90 rosters but does he have the same attraction (value) for 53s? Would White or Gaffney be safer bets? I guess this one will be down to last p-s game.
@TE Derby has close to no chance to clear waivers. If they want to keep Harbor thay have to cut elswhere (like ST) because it won't be on account of Develin by all projections
@OL Karras might get snatched - there are many depleted OLs accross the league. Fleming is much safer.
@DL A. Johnson is another one who maybe showed just a bit too much
@LB KGH is special and they now it (Seahawks etc.); even E.Roberts is not safe (Bills...)
@CB This board fears nobody is safe - in my mind only J Jones is impossible to bring through waivers
@S Here I think King can clear waivers
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So (without waivers) PS could be:
RB White or Foster (if Bolden is cut then only Iosefa eligible for the moment)
TE B Williams
WR Carter, Lucien
OL Fleming
DT (A.Johnson would be perfect here, but brings something else on 53; Vellano is eligible but shown little)
DE Grissom
LB E.Roberts
CB LeBlanc (hip), D.Roberts
S King
-
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Under the lines:
Id cut King (for PS) and keep both Kuhn (back up for injury) and A.Johnson or AJ & E.Roberts
I am undecided to cut Bolden or White and keep Foster (but thats not gonna happen)
I would consider cutting Karras (if Mason&Cooper are ready soon enough) for Harbor
I'd keep Dobson or Carter only if Amendola stays on PUP

 

[Fencer]

If King is cut, who's the gunner opposite Slater?

 

[long distance]

If King is cut, who's the gunner opposite Slater?

J Jones is incredible. He annihilated Panthers return game. Looks like huge upgrade. King is also PS eligible.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

You lost me when you treated the notion of cutting Bolden or White seriously. Who protects the franchise in blitz pickup in the hurry-up, and who backs him up?

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

 

[long distance]

Ok, so let me try my 53 anyway.

QB (2) Garoppolo, Brissett
RB (4) Blount, Gaffney, White, Foster*
FB (1) Develin
TE (3) Gronk, Bennett, Derby
WR (5) Edelman, Hogan, Mitchell, Martin, Amendola* (PUP?)
OL (9) Solder, Thuney, Andrews, Kline, Cannon, Mason, Cooper, Waddle, Karras*
DT (4) Brown, Valentine, Branch, A Johnson
DE (4) Sheard, Long, Ninkovich, T Flowers
LB (6) Hightower, Collins, Freeny, McClellin, Mingo, KGH
CB (5) Butler, Ryan, Cy Jones, Coleman, J Jones*
S (5) McCourty, Chung, Harmon, Richards (ST), Ebner (ST)
ST (4) Gost, Allen, Cardona, Slater

SUS - Brady - (returns week 5)
PUP - Lewis, Tre Jackson, Vollmer, Amendola* - (return week 7-11, real. week 8 (1 week to practice))
IR - M.Williams (TE), Kearse (DT)

PS* - Carter, Harper/Lucien, B Williams, Fleming*, Grissom, E.Roberts, LeBlanc, D Roberts, King
(last spot between Rufus, Sunseri and Barker if we dont keep RB and DT - no good options - which might be risky)

Actually I have a 52 here. The last spot is between Harbor, Kuhn, E Roberts and King (last two PS eligible)
Kuhn is a solid back-up and safety option - Valentine did impress but he had problems w consistency, durability at college; Harbor is a solid TE option w strong 2TE sets, E Roberts might be lost through waivers plus he showed he can contribute now at back-up LB and ST. King is King.

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@RB - I dont believe BB cuts Bolden (or White). Still I believe Bolden is not necessary at ST and above combination seems most balanced. But taking Foster and Gaffney might be risky plus we haven't see Foster vs 1st D or blocking/picking blitz. If we don't see him early @NYG his chances are small. Maybe he can pass waivers - its a risk I cannot take (but BB probably will)

@WR - If Amendola comes off PUP its a clear situation. Ih he stays on PUP it would probably be wise to carry another WR (Dobson or Carter) since Martin and Mitchell are not 100%.

@OL - If Mason and Cooper would be ready to go week 1 (which doesn't seem the case), they could go with 8 (Karras + Fleming to PS). I dont believe they go with 10 so its between Karras and Fleming. Karras struggled the last game and they were sharing RG w Barker. Fleming is not showing much at RT but he was used significantly in running game as 6th OL. I believe BB has Fleming over Karras.

@CB - J Jones has a huge upside as gunner on ST. He was a game changer @CAR. Plus his speed alone makes him difficult to survive through waivers. BB&MP seem to prefer LeBlanc as corner.

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The only position Id like to see a trade for (but will probably not happen) is RB. Adding a roster cut from elsewhere wont change much. We could dearly use efficient 3rd down back but Id hate to give up high 2017 picks (with much better draft class reportedly coming next year). I doubt that our (relatively) painless trade options like - Harbor, Dobson, Kuhn, Coleman/D.Roberts/LeBlanc - can bring us that.

But it is blatantly true that our BIG problem is 3rd down, especially weeks 1-4. We are very exposed there and it can hurt us.

 

[Froob]

BB trying to finally send Dobson packing

 

[RobertWeathers]

You lost me when you treated the notion of cutting Bolden or White seriously. Who protects the franchise in blitz pickup in the hurry-up, and who backs him up?

Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk

Bolden being cut/traded is very real-especially if Foster continues to show up .

 

[Love The Drake]

Thoughts on David Cobb?

 

[long distance]

BB trying to finally send Dobson packing

Yep, it might be moops for Dobson.

And I can imagine this scene playing out if you'd put this board and the FO in cut to 53 room together ...

 

[RobertWeathers]

Bubble Players that have at least a 10% of chance of getting wacked. A bad showing in NY or a great showing by their main competition or a player who can backup their primary position spells them doom.

Karras
Kline
Carter
Lucien
Halopio
Fleming
Harbor
Williams
Dobson
Bolden
Martin
Foster
Iosefa
Vellano
Hamilton
Rufus
KGH (highly unlikely but you never know)
Roberts
Snyder
LeBlanc
Grissom
Roberts
Jones
Coleman
Richards
King
Sunseri

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Bolden being cut/traded is very real-especially if Foster continues to show up .

Like Max "Fast" Lane the turnstile was one of Drew's butt buddies, Bolden is a Brady Butt boy. I always liked & rooted for Bolden who got the most out of his modest (at NFL ratings) abilities.
It's time for him to go. I hope Foster is the upgrade with the upside.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Like Max "Fast" Lane the turnstile was one of Drew's butt buddies, Bolden is a Brady Butt boy. I always liked & rooted for Bolden who got the most out of his modest (at NFL ratings) abilities.
It's time for him to go. I hope Foster is the upgrade with the upside.

Yep.

I also like Bolden. I just think they have ST talent to spare this year and they need a RB like Foster if Lewis can't be "Lewis" this year as White has not proven he can run the ball.

 

[The Gr8est]

I am not wedded to the idea that Bolden needs to stay at all costs, but people need to remember that Bolden was instrumental in getting the Pats to, and winning, the SB against the Seahawks.

 

[Mack Herron]

Special teams always figures in, so here is some useful info from Reiss on players who have seen action on multiple STs:

Four
Brandon Bolden
Nate Ebner
Geneo Grissom
Brandon King
Matthew Slater

Three
Jonathan Freeny
Clay Harbor
Jonathan Jones

Two
AJ Derby
Duron Harmon

It will be interesting to see how BB values STs, as some of these guys (all of the 4-team guys) are solid here, but towards the bottom of their position depth. How many ST-only guys can he keep with this roster?

 

[long distance]

Special teams always figures in, so here is some useful info from Reiss on players who have seen action on multiple STs:

Four
Brandon Bolden
Nate Ebner
Geneo Grissom
Brandon King
Matthew Slater

Three
Jonathan Freeny
Clay Harbor
Jonathan Jones

Two
AJ Derby
Duron Harmon

It will be interesting to see how BB values STs, as some of these guys (all of the 4-team guys) are solid here, but towards the bottom of their position depth. How many ST-only guys can he keep with this roster?

Great, important info before cuts. We do have to add what Reiss says further:
One thing to consider from the list is that the Patriots might have still been evaluating the performance of some players on special teams.

There was a lot of KGH (all 4), E Roberts and Richards (also Snyder but probably not relevant) against Bears and Saints. @Panthers KGH was ill, E Roberts was playing a lot of LB ...

There are new guys Mingo (368 ST snaps in 2015 with Browns) and McClellin (75 in 2015 + blocked kick) coming in the mix.

King and Grissom look replaceable w J Jones (KGH) and Mingo who can contribute also at CB and DE/LB.
Its interesting that projections quietly are cutting King, even if they don't have J Jones.
Most still keep Bolden and looking at this and his last year number (264) I guess he stays.
Harbor had 254 last year so no wonder BB was interested.

Its interesting that Bills used Hogan a lot (181), didn't notice him here, too valuable at WR I guess.

ST did look great at Carolina so I guess all on this list are still in the mix.




.

 

[ashley]

I think the two positions that are going to be very interesting this week are:

-RB (Do we go with Gaffney or Foster)
-CB (who gets our final two spots...Coleman, Jones, LeBlanc or Roberts)

I think Karras will beat out Flemming on the o-line and Johnson will beat out Kuhn at dt.

I don't see Dobson making the team either.

I think the biggest area of concern is the o-line, especially the depth of it.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think the two positions that are going to be very interesting this week are:

-RB (Do we go with Gaffney or Foster)

I think they can keep both. Blount and Gaffney as the big backs and White and Foster and the passing backs with Foster the better runner. Add Develin and that is your 5.

-CB (who gets our final two spots...Coleman, Jones, LeBlanc or Roberts)

I have no clue what they'll do there. All are worthy of a roster spot or PS. Jones might have an edge b/c of ST and Coleman b/c of his familiarity of the D. Problem is that he stinks on the outside.

I think Karras will beat out Flemming on the o-line and Johnson will beat out Kuhn at dt.

I don't see Dobson making the team either.

I think the biggest area of concern is the o-line, especially the depth of it.

I think Karras is more suited to the interior and Flemming more at T. Not sure they are competing per se but you never know with this team.