Breer: Welker at OTAs, in uniform, brace on

[DaBruinz]

It isn't? Then why haven't we seen them run the ball 35 times a game? Why haven't we seen them use 2 TEs and throw to them instead?

Because they haven't had the personnel and you damn well know it. Both the O-line and the TEs have been an issue. The Pats haven't had that devastating blocking TE since Graham's departure. Koppen, Neal, and Light have all had injuries..

One reason: Because Moss is too good a player not to use him. THAT is the crux of the PROBLEM, not the solution. Everything revolves around getting the ball to Randy, because he's such a good player. So unless you can clone Randy and put five of him on the field at once, you're not going to be able to play any other offense than "throw to Randy."

I thought enough books were written on the Pats' success a half decade ago to realize that. I guess I was wrong.

This is patently FALSE. Especially since Welker has caught more passes than Randy in each of the last 3 years. In 2007, the Patriots had Gaffney as the #3 receiver and he was good and allowed them to spread things around. The problem was that Brady didn't have a lot of confidence in Watson by the end of the season and non in K. Brady, who was injured. And Neal was injured as well, hurting the running game significantly.

In 2009, the O-line was hit or miss with its run- blocking. And BB finally had enough and called them on it when he was defending Maroney mid-season. Add to this the injuries to Taylor and Morris and the Pats were frugal with their use of the running game. But Brady also didn't have a lot of faith in it. And that was obvious by his audibling out of run formations more often then usual.

The only way to put the faith back into the running game is to commit to it as an offense by running 20-30 times a game. And I don't mean with QB sneaks. I mean hard-nosed, in your face football.

Once you do that, and Brady has faith in the receivers (old and new), things will work a lot better. But until that faith is built up, Brady is as much an issue as Moss.

 

[DaBruinz]

Well, Slater has been pretty awful as a return man (he just runs into blocks) and has been average as a coverage man (too many penalties). I don't know if either make the team (especially if Arrington and Lockett prove their worth), but I'm not really sure where that fits into what I was saying.

That's why Slater had the 2nd highest kick return average on the team last year behind Brandon Tate's. And Tate only had 4 kick returns to Slater's 11.

Arrington, Slater and Aiken were all on the team last year. As was Lockett, who was replaced by Arrington. I can see Aiken going if Murrell or Someone else can be the Personal Protector on the Punt Coverage Unit. But I don't see Slater going.

I don't necessarily disagree with this. The entire source of my idea was long-term gains. I think that having the draft pick asset you gain from a Moss trade, and having a solid WR corps with Welker-Edelman-Tate-Price for years to come is an appealing proposition at the expense of a short term loss (Moss). The fact of the matter is - and MoLewis touched on this - Brady doesn't need Moss to be good. We saw six or seven years ago that he can be an elite quarterback just throwing to the open receiver (as long as they can catch the ball; 2006 proved what happens if they can't). It may not have the glamour of the 2007 offense, but it's still pretty damn effective, and as I have argued, probably more effective when defenses force you to go to second, third, and fourth options. Again, not having Moss in the short term is obviously not an upgrade, but I think balancing long and short term needs is more important.

But you've not provided a SHRED of evidence that trading Moss is better in the long term. Again, for the reasons you mentioned, I don't believe he has the trade value you think he does. And, therefore, shouldn't be traded.

I see no reason why the Pats can't run the "2003/2004" offense with Moss, Welker, Holt, Edelman, Tate and Price. That way Edelman, Tate and Price have little to no pressure on them but get to learn at the breast of 2 of the all-time best and probably a guy who is going to go down as the best slot receiver in the modern era.

But, no matter what. BRADY is the one who has to have confidence in the other receivers to go to the OPEN MAN instead of just Moss or Welker. Without that confidence, It doesn't matter which version of the offense they run, it won't be successful.

 

[pats1]

This is patently FALSE. Especially since Welker has caught more passes than Randy in each of the last 3 years. In 2007, the Patriots had Gaffney as the #3 receiver and he was good and allowed them to spread things around. The problem was that Brady didn't have a lot of confidence in Watson by the end of the season and non in K. Brady, who was injured. And Neal was injured as well, hurting the running game significantly.

Wait, wasn't the running game more effective in the end of the season? Didn't Maroney have the best games of his career that December and January, against the Dolphins and Chargers?

In 2009, the O-line was hit or miss with its run- blocking. And BB finally had enough and called them on it when he was defending Maroney mid-season. Add to this the injuries to Taylor and Morris and the Pats were frugal with their use of the running game. But Brady also didn't have a lot of faith in it. And that was obvious by his audibling out of run formations more often then usual.

I agree 100% that the running game was unacceptable in 2009. That's kind of my point; one could argue that they paid less attention to the running game than they should of because they knew they had Moss.

The only way to put the faith back into the running game is to commit to it as an offense by running 20-30 times a game. And I don't mean with QB sneaks. I mean hard-nosed, in your face football.

Once you do that, and Brady has faith in the receivers (old and new), things will work a lot better. But until that faith is built up, Brady is as much an issue as Moss.

I don't disagree with anything there. I would also throw Bill O'Brien in there.

 

[DaBruinz]

I don't have very much confidence with Moss running short routes, and even some intermediate routes. People forget that he had a lot of dropped passes over the past few seasons. No doubt he has the knowledge to run them, he's a very smart football player, but I've never found his skillset to be overly conducive to making that over-the-middle tough catch. Maybe I'm wrong.

What you have confidence in doesn't matter. Moss had 7 dropped passes last year. Welker had 6. And Moss was playing with a separated shoulder. Welker missing 2 games early. But, how many of those drops were on short passes? I don't know because that wasn't counted by SI.

You are only looking at 2010. I am looking at future years. Don't tell me the decision makers aren't either.

Don't pretend that you have a clue as to what I am looking at because you don't. I'm NOT just looking at 2010 and I don't believe you are looking beyond 2010 worth a damn. Not with the stuff you're posting anyways. And especially when I am the one who is talking about having the youngsters learn from two of the best in Moss and Holt. Both have been successful for different reasons. And BOTH could help Tate and Price become better versions of a Branch/Givens combination.

I have a news flash for you. Moss won't be on the Pats beyond 2010, IF and only IF Tate and/or Price show enough improvement that the Pats feel comfortable with them. Otherwise, the Pats will look into signing Moss.

You keep going on and on about a draft pick for moss. Yet you fully discount that a draft pick would be 4-5 years from contributing, IF he contributed at all. Also, in the short term, it hurts this team significantly because it would force them to rely on Welker, Holt and Edelman. No, Patten is garbage. He was brought back as a favor to the guy much like the Pats brought back Pass. The only way Patten makes this team is if 2 of Moss, Taylor, Tate, Price, Welker and Edelman are injured for the season. Why? Because Patten brings nothing to special teams.

 

[pats1]

That's why Slater had the 2nd highest kick return average on the team last year behind Brandon Tate's. And Tate only had 4 kick returns to Slater's 11.

That isn't saying much. The special teams units last season were awful.

Arrington, Slater and Aiken were all on the team last year. As was Lockett, who was replaced by Arrington. I can see Aiken going if Murrell or Someone else can be the Personal Protector on the Punt Coverage Unit. But I don't see Slater going.

I think most would say Slater's roster spot is in pretty serious jeopardy. I don't know what tape you watched, but Slater's special teams performances last year were nothing to write home about.

But you've not provided a SHRED of evidence that trading Moss is better in the long term. Again, for the reasons you mentioned, I don't believe he has the trade value you think he does. And, therefore, shouldn't be traded.

My assumption that it is better in the long term is based on his trade value. So obviously, yes, if you don't get the desired trade value then you don't make the trade. I've said that before in this thread. Everything hinges on that.

I see no reason why the Pats can't run the "2003/2004" offense with Moss, Welker, Holt, Edelman, Tate and Price. That way Edelman, Tate and Price have little to no pressure on them but get to learn at the breast of 2 of the all-time best and probably a guy who is going to go down as the best slot receiver in the modern era.

They haven't done it to date, even when they had Moss, Welker, Stallworth, Gaffney, Washington, Troy, and Jackson in 2007. It's about having the right type of player for the system. Welker, Gaffney, and Troy would fit in there - there's a reason why they were all favorites of Brady. It's about having the right personnel, guys who can make tough catches on short and especially intermediate routes in tough situations. Branch and Givens did that frequently.

But, no matter what. BRADY is the one who has to have confidence in the other receivers to go to the OPEN MAN instead of just Moss or Welker. Without that confidence, It doesn't matter which version of the offense they run, it won't be successful.

That is my core assumption. I believe that providing Brady with a combination of Welker, Edelman, Holt, Tate, Price, and Patten on the field would be like walking into a candy store for Brady. We know that Welker, Edelman, and Patten all have the trust of Brady, and it is reasonable to assume that Holt will in due time. Price and Tate are to be seen.

 

[DaBruinz]

Wait, wasn't the running game more effective in the end of the season? Didn't Maroney have the best games of his career that December and January, against the Dolphins and Chargers?

No. The Dolphins were a garbage team that year.. It was against Jacksonville and San Diego that Maroney had his good games. But Neal wasn't injured then. He'd returned. But Neal was injured earlier (Giants games).

I agree 100% that the running game was unacceptable in 2009. That's kind of my point; one could argue that they paid less attention to the running game than they should of because they knew they had Moss.

It's not just Moss. It's Moss AND Welker. And if you think that Welker is ONLY a product of Moss being on the team then you are insane and oblivious to 2006, when Welker broke out.

You're "point" is hugely flawed because you insist on excluding Welker and Welker has been Brady's target more than Moss in each of the last 3 years.

I don't disagree with anything there. I would also throw Bill O'Brien in there.

Bill O'Brien is a whole separate ball of wax.

 

[pats1]

Don't pretend that you have a clue as to what I am looking at because you don't. I'm NOT just looking at 2010 and I don't believe you are looking beyond 2010 worth a damn. Not with the stuff you're posting anyways. And especially when I am the one who is talking about having the youngsters learn from two of the best in Moss and Holt. Both have been successful for different reasons. And BOTH could help Tate and Price become better versions of a Branch/Givens combination.

I have a news flash for you. Moss won't be on the Pats beyond 2010, IF and only IF Tate and/or Price show enough improvement that the Pats feel comfortable with them. Otherwise, the Pats will look into signing Moss.

I don't think there is any more than a shred of hope that Moss is a Patriot in 2010, due to nothing more than his own personal desire to be here.

You keep going on and on about a draft pick for moss. Yet you fully discount that a draft pick would be 4-5 years from contributing, IF he contributed at all. Also, in the short term, it hurts this team significantly because it would force them to rely on Welker, Holt and Edelman. No, Patten is garbage. He was brought back as a favor to the guy much like the Pats brought back Pass. The only way Patten makes this team is if 2 of Moss, Taylor, Tate, Price, Welker and Edelman are injured for the season. Why? Because Patten brings nothing to special teams.

4-5 years is a drastic exagerration and you know that.

Pass was gone within a few days. I really don't think Patten was brought in just as a courtesy; he's been with the team for going on four months now. I also disagree - and have since the day he was signed - that Patten is "garbage." The guy had 54 catches in 2007. Then he got hurt. Then he got hurt again with the Browns last summer. It's a hell of a lot different than bringing Shawn Jefferson in. Patten was brought in as a guy who the Pats knew Brady would be comfortable with - something I'm sure he petitioned for after the Galloway debacle last season - and who would be a decent option if all else (Holt, Tate, Price) failed.

But apparently you haven't read what I've posted, because on multiple occassions I've called Patten the 6th WR, someone who could give you a catch here or there and probably wouldn't even make the team if all five other guys were healthy. But if he had to come on the field as a fourth or fifth option in a pinch, like Freddy Coleman in 2001, you would have someone Brady trusts in there (not saying Brady trusted Coleman, just that they would play the same role). That's all. You're focusing way too much on Patten.

 

[pats1]

It's not just Moss. It's Moss AND Welker. And if you think that Welker is ONLY a product of Moss being on the team then you are insane and oblivious to 2006, when Welker broke out.

Now I'm confused. Do you really mean 2006, when Welker was on the Dolphins and broke out so much that the Pats gave the Dolphins a 2nd rounder for him?

Or do you mean 2007, when he was actually with Moss?

You're "point" is hugely flawed because you insist on excluding Welker and Welker has been Brady's target more than Moss in each of the last 3 years.

That's because I see Welker as a player who can and would fit into a more traditional balanced Weis-like attack, and Moss as one who would not. Thus my categorizing Welker's production as positive and Moss' as not.

Bill O'Brien is a whole separate ball of wax.

Heh, I hear you on that.

 

[BradyFTW!]

This is really productive.

 

[DaBruinz]

That isn't saying much. The special teams units last season were awful.

Wrong. The Punt return and Field Goal units were awesome. The Punt Coverage was OK. The kick off and kick coverage units were bad, mainly because of the injuries that it suffered and all the new personnel.

I think most would say Slater's roster spot is in pretty serious jeopardy. I don't know what tape you watched, but Slater's special teams performances last year were nothing to write home about.

Most have said that since before Slater was drafted. I have disagreed with them. And I disagree with you now. Slater continues to be one of the best special teamers on this team. Yes, he's behind Arrington, but he's ahead of many others.

They haven't done it to date, even when they had Moss, Welker, Stallworth, Gaffney, Washington, Troy, and Jackson in 2007. It's about having the right type of player for the system. Welker, Gaffney, and Troy would fit in there - there's a reason why they were all favorites of Brady. It's about having the right personnel, guys who can make tough catches on short and especially intermediate routes in tough situations. Branch and Givens did that frequently.

Troy suited up for 1 game in 2007 and he was on the field for 6 punt returns. Of which he fumbled one of them. Other than that, he didn't play.

Again, I point to confidence. Brady didn't have a lot of confidence in Stallworth or Washington (who was primarily used on special teams). And why should he when they didn't run the routes they were supposed to? Same with Chad Jackson.

Yes, Branch, Brown and Givens did that because they were similar in that they could run those routes the way Brady wanted them to and he had the confidence that they would catch the ball when it was thrown to them.

All you did was say what I said using different words.

That is my core assumption. I believe that providing Brady with a combination of Welker, Edelman, Holt, Tate, Price, and Patten on the field would be like walking into a candy store for Brady. We know that Welker, Edelman, and Patten all have the trust of Brady, and it is reasonable to assume that Holt will in due time. Price and Tate are to be seen.

And I believe your "CORE ASSUMPTION" is patently WRONG. First off, those players aren't nearly the same. Though Tate is similar to Givens in build, he's faster and runs the intermediate to deep routes.. Tate is also a deep route Runner.

Why is it that you make such a HUGE assumption that Patten has Brady's confidence? Brady sure as hell didn't have it back in 2004 when Patten basically rode the bench in the play-offs. It was one of the reasons that Patten wasn't brought back in 2005.

I'm sorry, but your scenario with Patten is more likely for the Patriots to end up like last year than it is to be successful.. Except that instead of Moss and Edelman, it would be Welker and Edelman. And I don't see how that is good for the short term or long term of the Pats.

 

[DaBruinz]

Now I'm confused. Do you really mean 2006, when Welker was on the Dolphins and broke out so much that the Pats gave the Dolphins a 2nd rounder for him?

Or do you mean 2007, when he was actually with Moss?

Well, I can understand why you'd be confused. You seem to be under the impression that Welker's success is a by-product of Moss being on the Patriots. Welker broke out in 2006, while playing for a crappy Dolphins team. I said as much when I started campaigning for Welker in November of 2006 as a signee for the Pats.

That's because I see Welker as a player who can and would fit into a more traditional balanced Weis-like attack, and Moss as one who would not. Thus my categorizing Welker's production as positive and Moss' as not.

The offense is the same. Belichick said as much. It's been HIS offense that Weis and McDaniels have run while on the Patriots. Yes, they take out plays based on the personnel they have available, but it's still BB's offense.

 

[PatsFanStnfrd]

Just don't know why anyone would want to get rid of the team's # 1 receiver. Moss can stretch the field, is highly motivated in his contract year, attracts the attention of the opponent's best cover corner, is often double teamed, remains a potent deep threat as well as an end-zone target with reliable hands. Above all, he has a detailed familiarity with NE's schemes, BB and Brady.

Losing Moss after this year will net the team a 3rd round compensatory pick in the draft the following year -- based on the reasonable assumption that he signs a big money contract elsewhere. Trading him now may yield a third rounder but is likely to have a detrimental impact on the 2010 team offense. It is simply not good practice to trade a healthy, well-established # 1 receiver who is playing in his fourth season in your offense.

Just a few weeks ago, many here were disconcerted that BB did not make a play for Anquan Boldin or go after a proven WR talent. Now, some are arguing for trading Moss. Unbelievable. Irresponsible. NE has a # 1. Value him.

Welker is healthy. Great news. But Welker is a complement to Moss, not a substitute.

 

[juny]

Great news about Welker. Saw the video on NFL Live and nice to see him running and cutting, even though it's not game speed. May not be too optimistic to hope for him to start in September.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Losing Moss after this year will net the team a 3rd round compensatory pick in the draft the following year -- based on the reasonable assumption that he signs a big money contract elsewhere. Trading him now may yield a third rounder but is likely to have a detrimental impact on the 2010 team offense. It is simply not good practice to trade a healthy, well-established # 1 receiver who is playing in his fourth season in your offense.

Actually, because Moss has been in the league so long, IIRC the most the Patriots could get for him in terms of comp picks would be a 2012 fifth (based on the contract he signs for 2011).

That said, my guess is that the difference between what the Pats could get for him in a trade and what they could get for a comp pick would not, in BB's mind, justify trading Moss. I could, of course, be wrong, but I doubt it.

 

[pats1]

Well, I can understand why you'd be confused. You seem to be under the impression that Welker's success is a by-product of Moss being on the Patriots. Welker broke out in 2006, while playing for a crappy Dolphins team. I said as much when I started campaigning for Welker in November of 2006 as a signee for the Pats.

The offense is the same. Belichick said as much. It's been HIS offense that Weis and McDaniels have run while on the Patriots. Yes, they take out plays based on the personnel they have available, but it's still BB's offense.

I really don't think we're disagreeing anywhere here.

 

[jsull87]

sorry if this has been said but... i didn't think it was that big a deal welker at training i thought he would be doing some light strait line stuff which is by the book after these types of surgeries... did you guys see the nfl network footage of welker cutting... that blew me over i wasn't doing that stuff with my acl injury till 8+months after surgery. That footage was remarkable

 

[Nikolai]

I haven't come in here as much during the offseason for obvious reasons, but this...now this is friggin great!

Admire the beast.

 

[AzPatsFan]

It isn't? Then why haven't we seen them run the ball 35 times a game? Why haven't we seen them use 2 TEs and throw to them instead?

One reason: Because Moss is too good a player not to use him. THAT is the crux of the PROBLEM, not the solution. Everything revolves around getting the ball to Randy, because he's such a good player. So unless you can clone Randy and put five of him on the field at once, you're not going to be able to play any other offense than "throw to Randy."

I thought enough books were written on the Pats' success a half decade ago to realize that. I guess I was wrong.

You use the weapons that you have. Trying to compare the young Defense of 2010, to the Pats SB Defenses of 2003 - 2004 where the average age was 5 or 6 years of starting experience is not only useless, but DUMB.

Those teams had ball control offenses because that was the talent that they had.

In the 2011 season when Holt, Welker, Edelson, Tate, Gronk, Hernandez and Price have some experience playing together, you might be able to let a talent like Moss go. That does not apply in 2010.

If you had a healthy Offensive line and Taylor and Maroney had sensational Comeback years, you might be able to run a ball control running game. It is extremely unlikely. But the only way to keep 8 out of the box is to have a threat in the passing game, and without Moss or a healthy Welker, they don't have that.

Belichick has always been a realist. He doesn't expect players to do things they are incapable of doing, and then criticizing them for not succeeding. He says good Coaching just places them in conditions where they CAN succeed.

 

[Patjew]

Anyway back on topic; I don't think this has been posted

Who is the guy in the blue shirt and shorts. I've been told I look just like him from behind. Which is weird.

 

[pats1]

Who is the guy in the blue shirt and shorts. I've been told I look just like him from behind. Which is weird.

I think it is the new offensive coaching assistant (if Ferentz was promoted to tight ends coach). We don't know who he is yet.