Breaking News Per Schefter: Long-term contract for Hernandez!

[patfanken]

What a load of crap. The Patriots lowballed Welker, their offer was dogsh,t. And what this really does is eliminate the garbage argument the Welker bashers have been making that they had to let him go to pay Hernandez.


If it was about Performance Welker would be sitting on a 75 million dollar deal right now because he is sure as hell a much better player than Santonio Holmes or Pierre Garcon, and that's a fact. This is about leverage, the Patriots had it and abused it like few teams before them ever have. The NFLPA should really fight the Welkert tag because the Patriots have violated the CBA by using the tag while not making a serious offer, and Mo Lewis has quoted the article of the CBA in the past that shows that they were required to make a good faith offer, which they didn't even come close to doing.

I'm really happy Hernandez is locked up, but using this news as a reason to take yet another crap on Welker is BS.

....and this week, the Oscar for overly dramatic poster goes to......IVAN!

When are you going to get it, man. It's NOT about past performance. Its ALL about future expectations! A long term deal worth 8-10MM/yr isn't one that would be likely to be played up to by Welker. His production is likely to fall due to a combination of diminishing skills, other receiving options, and possible injury over the next 3 years. Just because Welker outperformed his first contract doesn't required the Pats to overpay his next one.

Welker is being very very well paid for what we hope will be a healthy year of football at an elite level. After that, it will be up to him....not to the Pats. They've set their price and its not going up after yet another season....if anything it will go down. That's just the harsh reality of being an NFL player on the wrong side of 30. And don't forget he IS being paid $9.3MM this season

 

[manxman2601]

I would say "No" to all of those guys unless they are short, dicounted deals. I like Spikes the best but there's nothing wrong with making him show he can make mature decisions and stay on the field.

Chung and Vollmer have significant injury question marks.

Mallett?

Depends on whether they see him as Brady's successor.

 

[Deus Irae]

Good to see him locked up. It will be interesting to see the breakdown. Combined with the breakdown of Gronk's deal, it should offer us a glimpse at what the Patriots think the cap is going to do in the next several years.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I agree that we shouldn't put the blame on Welker here, but come on. Don't use this to crap on the Pats. The CBA gives the teams and the players the clear rules of engagement. The Patriots want to keep Welker, but they don't want to pay what Welker wants. So they utilize the tool that the CBA calls for - and which the players agreed to - and that's the franchise tag. So they tagged Welker, and Wes will be paid, what, more than $9 million this year. And they now have all year to try to work out an extension if they are able. And if not, they will each make decisions for next year. Welker didn't have to sign the tender, but for his own reasons, he did. The Patriots didn't have to offer the tender, but for their own reasons, they did.

Welker is here because the Patriots followed the processes outlined in the CBA. Nothing more, nothing less.

Ivan is going off the deep end on the Welker situation. The good faith issue can only be raised if the player and his agent chose to and it doesn't mean you have to offer him a market deal, just that you have to engage in good faith negotiations. Now, come next off season if they don't say a word and then tag him...he could make a case if he chose to that they were using the tag merely to restrict him or extract value (trade) and had no intention to sign him. But most players won't make that case because the value of the second tag or what happens (new deal on your terms) in trade aren't something they want to fight on principle over. Particularly at 32.

 

[Gumby]

They will stay flat because the TV deals are phased in over the term of the deal and the league has already allowed the NFLPA to borrow in advance from any initial increases in order to avoid a formula driven cap decrease they couldn't face their membership with in the first 4 years of the new CBA.

Mo had the real answer. The long term tv deals are fixed and as he said paid forward into current years.

Those saying BB learned from past mistakes; well that is maybe partially true.

The other part is the implications of Mo was saying; under almost none of those previous player-contract deals did the Patriots know for sure what the cap situation was going to be for more than 12-24 months. During the last 8 years since the 2-peat we have had an uncapped year, regime change at nfl front office (not for the better), 2? new CBAs, and lived through an uncapped year.

The pats finally have predictability. And if there is one team's management that can take advantage of that - you have to believe it is BB.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

....and this week, the Oscar for overly dramatic poster goes to......IVAN!

When are you going to get it, man. It's NOT about past performance. Its ALL about future expectations! A long term deal worth 8-10MM/yr isn't one that would be likely to be played up to by Welker. His production is likely to fall due to a combination of diminishing skills, other receiving options, and possible injury over the next 3 years. Just because Welker outperformed his first contract doesn't required the Pats to overpay his next one.

Welker is being very very well paid for what we hope will be a healthy year of football at an elite level. After that, it will be up to him....not to the Pats. They've set their price and its not going up after yet another season....if anything it will go down. That's just the harsh reality of being an NFL player on the wrong side of 30. And don't forget he IS being paid $9.3MM this season

OK but you're taking the Oscar for biggest opposite assumption. Welker may well have another season close to the one he just had and the team may then decide to tag him again or sign him to an equivalent 2-3 year extention, either of which will net him more than this season. And the cost certainty with the kid TE's just makes that easier to accommodate. And past performance is what they base future expectations on. If Gronk's back had flared up (ala Vollmer) or Ahern hadn't toed the line on and off the field, neither would have gotten an early extension. And it's $9.5. Just because they aren't willing to commit long term to someone doesn't mean they don't want or value them.

 

[goheels22002]

What a load of crap. The Patriots lowballed Welker, their offer was dogsh,t. And what this really does is eliminate the garbage argument the Welker bashers have been making that they had to let him go to pay Hernandez.


If it was about Performance Welker would be sitting on a 75 million dollar deal right now because he is sure as hell a much better player than Santonio Holmes or Pierre Garcon, and that's a fact. This is about leverage, the Patriots had it and abused it like few teams before them ever have. The NFLPA should really fight the Welkert tag because the Patriots have violated the CBA by using the tag while not making a serious offer, and Mo Lewis has quoted the article of the CBA in the past that shows that they were required to make a good faith offer, which they didn't even come close to doing.

I'm really happy Hernandez is locked up, but using this news as a reason to take yet another crap on Welker is BS.

Are you Wes Welker's agent? If so, I hope you're enjoying the 20% of the $9.515 million guaranteed that Welker is being paid, or whatever his agent gets. Every penny is guaranteed. His is the only deal like that. That's the upside - you get paid top five money and everything is guaranteed.

Look, we've been over this on another thread a zillion times. Everybody wishes that they'd reached a longer term deal. Most people think the Pats should have made a better offer last year. Nobody begrudges Welker from wanting something better. The Patriots offered the Franchise, Welker signed it, and the Pats moved on to other matters.

A major issue, avoided with the Hernandez deal, is what is a slot receiver worth? The Pats gave Welker wideout money - probably a 25% premium for one year of service. We don't know. The market isn't clear for a slot receiver.

My suggestion was $24M/3 years. It's probably going to cost the Patriots more than that now. Mr. Kraft and Belichick knew they were taking a risk.

Welker's a big boy. He knows what he signed and said as much in his WEEI interview the week he signed it. He promised to show up, play hard, honor his deal.

Time to play football.

 

[Ivan]

....and this week, the Oscar for overly dramatic poster goes to......IVAN!

When are you going to get it, man. It's NOT about past performance. Its ALL about future expectations! A long term deal worth 8-10MM/yr isn't one that would be likely to be played up to by Welker. His production is likely to fall due to a combination of diminishing skills, other receiving options, and possible injury over the next 3 years. Just because Welker outperformed his first contract doesn't required the Pats to overpay his next one.

Welker is being very very well paid for what we hope will be a healthy year of football at an elite level. After that, it will be up to him....not to the Pats. They've set their price and its not going up after yet another season....if anything it will go down. That's just the harsh reality of being an NFL player on the wrong side of 30. And don't forget he IS being paid $9.3MM this season

Really Ken, show us how his skills have been "diminishing?"

Let's see it, can't wait for you to demonstrate this.


C'mon now ken, should be easy for you to demonstrate.

I will check back in a few minutes to see what you came up with. If true you should have no problem backing your claim up with facts. It should only take you a couple of minutes to get the facts, so we'll see how you do with it.

Good luck.

 

[Deus Irae]

Reported $7.5 million average, per Zolak

Edit: Bedard's numbers:

Hernandez deal: five year extension worth $40 million with $12.5-million signing bonus and $16.4 million guaranteed.

https://twitter.com/GregABedard/statuses/240101524255162368

It's a whopper for a fourth-round pick. More money than Gronk the first four years. Highest signing bonus ever for TE.

https://twitter.com/GregABedard/statuses/240101758406365184

 

[shmessy]

I agree I think this deal actually makes it more likely Welker returns. I could see him getting a 2-3 yr contract after the season. The number of WR who got big contracts this year made it difficult for the Patriots to get a deal done this year. I am not really sure who is coming up in 2013.

Either way having Gronk and Hernandez here for the next 5 years is huge to close our Brady's career with reliable big targets.

The problem with that is that Welker is NOT looking for 2-3 years. He's looking for a contract that guarantees him $21 million.

THAT is the issue.

When he hits FA next year he will be a 32 yr old WR who has had ACL/MCL repair and has been catching passes the past 6 years (with one interruption) from, what many view as the greatest "dink and dunk" QB of all time (even though Brady can do so much more). Is he THAT valuable to another team's system? Save for Danny Snyder not taking his meds, no.

The Pats are FLUSH with WRs and TE's - - but WILL need to spend money on that secondary. We all love Wes, no doubt. There is such a thing as priorities in the dog eat dog NFL. Rewarding for past performance is not a top one.

Is it fair? No. But to paraphrase a famous coach we all know, "It is what it is".

 

[shmessy]

Ivan is going off the deep end on the Welker situation. The good faith issue can only be raised if the player and his agent chose to and it doesn't mean you have to offer him a market deal, just that you have to engage in good faith negotiations. Now, come next off season if they don't say a word and then tag him...he could make a case if he chose to that they were using the tag merely to restrict him or extract value (trade) and had no intention to sign him. But most players won't make that case because the value of the second tag or what happens (new deal on your terms) in trade aren't something they want to fight on principle over. Particularly at 32.

I agree with this.

There is the possibility the Pats may very well tag him again next year at $11.4 million.

I just don't see the next $10+ million being spent on him once he's 33+ years old.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Tradeoffs.... The first 4 years of these deals are a bargain at the guaranteed price. The backend is gravey, take it or leave it or swap it for au jus if more appropriate based on what the entree is 5 years from now.

Which is why these deals only make it easier for them to continue to employ veteran WR's for as long as there are any worth employing. Whereas in 3-4 years they'd be well advised to have home grown some inexpensive young WR talent to pair with them.

 

[borg]

His '12 compensation is the highest yearly comp for a WR in the history of the team. Such disrespect.
And WW was so outraged with the tag that he came flying in to sign it...in May. By signing it, negotiations had to be haulted.......his doing....not the teams.

 

[Ivan]

Are you Wes Welker's agent? If so, I hope you're enjoying the 20% of the $9.515 million guaranteed that Welker is being paid, or whatever his agent gets. Every penny is guaranteed. His is the only deal like that. That's the upside - you get paid top five money and everything is guaranteed.

Look, we've been over this on another thread a zillion times. Everybody wishes that they'd reached a longer term deal. Most people think the Pats should have made a better offer last year. Nobody begrudges Welker from wanting something better. The Patriots offered the Franchise, Welker signed it, and the Pats moved on to other matters.

A major issue, avoided with the Hernandez deal, is what is a slot receiver worth? The Pats gave Welker wideout money - probably a 25% premium for one year of service. We don't know. The market isn't clear for a slot receiver.

My suggestion was $24M/3 years. It's probably going to cost the Patriots more than that now. Mr. Kraft and Belichick knew they were taking a risk.

Welker's a big boy. He knows what he signed and said as much in his WEEI interview the week he signed it. He promised to show up, play hard, honor his deal.

Time to play football.

Do you really think Welker won't give it everything he has?

Like i said before this is about leverage, not performance. The Patriots knew they couldn't pay him what he has earned through pefrformance and knew somebody else would, so they tagged him. However tagging a player requires a good faith offer, and they refused to make one, and that's garbage on their part. Can they get away with it, yes, should they abuse the system like this, no. I would have hoped most fans would respect Welker and take issue with the team conducting itself like this, but unfortunately too many will side with the team no matter how wrong they are.

Like i said before I won't start anything regarding Welker but when people take shots at him I will respond. Imo he's earned our respect and support and he has mine. I love the Patriots but that doesn't mean they are always right, and i have never seen them more wrong than they are in this instance, and it's a shame.

 

[shmessy]

OK but you're taking the Oscar for biggest opposite assumption. Welker may well have another season close to the one he just had and the team may then decide to tag him again or sign him to an equivalent 2-3 year extention, either of which will net him more than this season. And the cost certainty with the kid TE's just makes that easier to accommodate.........

So is the cost certainty there to go out and get a top flight Safety or CB.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

The problem with that and what PFiP and Mo are stating is that Welker is NOT looking for 2-3 years. He's looking for a contract that guarantees him $21 million.

THAT is the issue.

When he hits FA next year he will be a 32 yr old WR who has had ACL/MCL repair and has been catching passes the past 6 years (with one interruption) from, what many view as the greatest "dink and dunk" QB of all time (even though Brady can do so much more). Is he THAT valuable to another team's system? Save for Danny Snyder not taking his meds, no.

The Pats are FLUSH with WRs and TE's - - but WILL need to spend money on that secondary. We all love Wes, no doubt. There is such a thing as priorities in the dog eat dog NFL. Rewarding for past performance is not a top one.

Is it fair? No. But to paraphrase a famous coach we all know, "It is what it is".

Name the WR we are flush with. Stallworth is gone. Gaffney hasn't yet shown he will be back better than before at 31. Lloyd and Brady are still working on chemistry. Branch is on a one year deal at 33. Ebert hasn't taken a regular season snap yet and may be headed for the PS. Edleman is a pending UFA. They need to continue to upgrade the secondary via the draft and look at starting to plan for the future at WR that way too.

Welker was looking for something more than $16M guaranteed, and he's already made $9.5M of it.

 

[patfanken]

OK but you're taking the Oscar for biggest opposite assumption. Welker may well have another season close to the one he just had and the team may then decide to tag him again or sign him to an equivalent 2-3 year extention, either of which will net him more than this season. And the cost certainty with the kid TE's just makes that easier to accommodate. And past performance is what they base future expectations on. If Gronk's back had flared up (ala Vollmer) or Ahern hadn't toed the line on and off the field, neither would have gotten an early extension. And it's $9.5. Just because they aren't willing to commit long term to someone doesn't mean they don't want or value them.

I never said or even intimated that Welker wasn't "valued" by the Pats. In fact I think that if, in the unlikely event, the Pats tagged him again next year, Wes would be THRILLED. Why not. Rather than being an impediment,the franchise tag would end up give him more than what he wanted ($21MM guaranteed over 2 years) in the first place. However I don't believe the Pats would do it.

The way Gronk's deal IS structured, and the way Hernandez's deal is likely to be done, will probably leave some money in the receiver budget for Wes, but not as much as it seemed he wanted this off season. Maybe after this one, the situation will be different.

 

[shmessy]

His '12 compensation is the highest yearly comp for a WR in the history of the team. Such disrespect.
And WW was so outraged with the tag that he came flying in to sign it...in May. By signing it, negotiations had to be haulted.......his doing....not the teams.

Bingo.

I think the fans are more upset about the Welker contract situation than Welker is.

He did what he had to do - - negotiate cold-bloodedly like the Pats did. They shook hands, didn't come to an agreement. He goes out and plays with a smile on his face and the comp you described above. He stated as much to the press that $9.4 million isn't killing him any.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

In appreciation to Kraft for drafting him and extending him early...

Albert Breer‏@AlbertBreer

Nice detail -- Aaron Hernandez is donating $50K to the Patriots Charitable Foundation in honor of Myra Kraft with this deal done.

 

[Ivan]

Ivan is going off the deep end on the Welker situation. The good faith issue can only be raised if the player and his agent chose to and it doesn't mean you have to offer him a market deal, just that you have to engage in good faith negotiations. Now, come next off season if they don't say a word and then tag him...he could make a case if he chose to that they were using the tag merely to restrict him or extract value (trade) and had no intention to sign him. But most players won't make that case because the value of the second tag or what happens (new deal on your terms) in trade aren't something they want to fight on principle over. Particularly at 32.

When it comes to my responses to those crapping on Welker that's pretty much true, I'm pissed and that's obvious. Seeing a player who has given so much get disrespected the way Welker has been pisses me off. However, when it comes to accuracy on the situation I'm right, which you acknowledged by saying that Welker and his agent would have to fight it, which they won't. The Patriots had an obligation to bargain in good faith and no one can claim their offer even came close to that. If Welker fought it he would win and be declared an unrestricted free agent. Imo he wants to be in NE for the rest of his career and will do whatever it takes if he can to make that happen. All the Patriots need to do is be reasonable and he finishes his career here, hopefully that happens.