PonyExpress
In the Starting Line-Up
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Booms Busts and Big School Sleepers at DE since 2000.
First off, let me admit I have a "draft problem" and I am currently seeking help...
I’m calling a “boom†a perennial pro-bowler, a “bust†a 1st rd player who was unproductive and/or out of the NFL, and a Big School Sleeper an impact non-1st rd DE from a BCS conference school. Also included is each player’s college production over his final two years, compared to players in this year’s draft class.
Note: *** means stats vary prior to 2000 due to inconsistent record-keeping at Official University Athletic Sites.
CPC means “College Production Comparison†with DE prospects in the 2006 class (see “Study of Draft Prospects with Stats†thread, if you can bear it ). The numbers include total tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, passes broken up and forced fumbles (TT/TFL/S/PBU/FF).
I didn’t include non-BCS conference players like Osi Umenyiora because their lesser competition made their college stats incomparable.
Part I. The Prospects.
2000 Draft
#1 Browns: Courtney Brown, PSU (Bust): Brown sustained the following injuries in a 3 year span: a knee injury missing the first 6 games of 2001; a left ankle sprain, missing 6 more games; a neck injury, missing one game in 2002; a knee injury requiring microfracture surgery, missing the last 4 games of 2002 and the playoff loss to Pittsburgh; a ruptured bicep tendon, missing the last 3 games of 2003; A torn foot ligament in September 2004 that cost him the whole 2004 season.
CPC: 102/52/28/5/3 (2006 player ranking: @pass: 6; @run 5; @total: 11) If Brown were a member of the 2006 draft class, he would be tied with Kiwanuka at #1.
#12 Jets: Ellis, Tenn (Good)
CPC: 82/26/9.5/2/(4)*** (2006 player ranking: @pass: 17; @run: 7; total: 24). Ellis would have been tied with Victor Adeyanju at #10 in the 2006 class.
#26 Buff: Eric Flowers, Ariz St (Bust): Flowers was a combine workout warrior. His rookie year was his most productive: In 16 games he had 20 tackles and 2 sacks. A tweener, he was considered too small to play end but too slow to play OLBer. Couldn’t bull rush and had no speed rush ability. Buffalo didn’t protect him in the 2002 expansion draft and Houston took him. He played one year in Houston, registered 4 tackles, and was cut. He bounced to St. Louis, played sparingly for two years, and is out of the league. http://www.bfloblog.com/
CPC: 101/25/13/6/2; (2006 player ranking: @pass: 12; @run: 10; total: 22)
Flowers would have ranked #9 in this year’s class, below Parys Haralson and just above Rob Ninkovich, the Purdue DE.
big school sleeper.
#33 NO: Darren Howard, KSt
CPC: 104/35/16/12/8*** (2006 player ranking: @pass: 14; @run: 7; total: 21)
If Howard were a member of the 2006 draft class, his production would have been comparable with Parys Haralson, the Tennessee DE. What distinguishes Howard from all other college DE prospects was his activity in coverage. In 1999 alone at Kstate he broke up 9 passes from the DE position, Julius Peppers type numbers. As a comparison, Manny Lawson led all the 2006 class with 9 breakups over two years. Howard’s production was no fluke, and hinted at NFL caliber athleticism.
NOTE: John Abraham was drafted as a 3-4 OLB by Parcells, and played LBer as a senior in college, therefore, despite the fact he currently plays 4-3 DE, he is not included here.
2001 Draft
#4 Cin: J. Smith, Missou (good)
CPC: 167/37/19/2/4 (2006 player ranking: @pass: 10; @run: 4; total: 14)
Smith’s production ties him with Manny Lawson and Mario Williams at the #2 slot in this year’s class. Smith has been a solid contributing pro who has avoided the injury bug and registered 9 sacks in his rookie year.
#10 GB: J. Reynolds, FSU (bust): Florida State product blew out his knee in rookie training camp and never was the same again. Hardly played for three years with the Packers before being traded to the Colts in 2004. Another Florida player who struggled with the culture shock of a cold weather city. http://www2.jsonline.com/packer/news/jul04/242133.asp
CPC:115/26/19/3/4 (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 9; @run: 12; @total: 21) Reynolds’ college production was on par with Eric Flowers, and he would have ranked #9 among DEs in this year’s class.
big school sleeper:
#87 Den: R. Hayward, Iowa St
CPC: 151/23/10/5/4. (2006 player ranking: @pass: 14; @run: 7; @total: 21)
Hayward’s production was equivalent to 1st rounders Reynolds and Flowers. The difference is he was selected #87 overall, learned as a back-up for a few years, worked hard and finally emerged as an impact player.
2002 Draft
#2 Car: Peppers, NC (boom)
CPC: 127/43/25/11/4. (2006 player ranking: @pass: 3; @run: 4; @total: 7)
Pepper’s college production laps the field. If he were coming out this year he would easily have been the #1 DE according to the numbers. Sometimes they don’t lie!
#11 Ind: Freeney, Syr (boom)
CPC: 81/45/31/3/11 (2006 player ranking: @pass: 3; @run: 11; @ total: 14)
If Freeney were coming out in 2006, he would have been ranked #2 DE in production behind Kiwanuka, tied with Manny Lawson and Mario Williams. His college impact against the pass was astounding, against the run? Not so much. The same pattern continues in the pros.
#25 NO: Grant, Georgia (good)
CPC: 86/21/8/9/2. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 15; @run: 10; @total: 25)
Grant is not a game-changer, but a solid, run-stuffing DE with limited pass-rush ability; still, he is a contributing, motivated player. His college production was on par with Stanley McClover and Ray Edwards, and would have placed him at #13 in this year’s class.
big school sleeper
#104 Chi: A. Brown, FLA
CPC: 106/26/18/7/4. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 7; @run: 12; @total: 19)
Brown’s college production was on par with Elvis Dumerville, and would have placed him at #6 in this year’s class.
2003 Draft
#10 Bal: Suggs, Ariz St (boom)
CPC: 94/43/29/5/9. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 3; @run: 10; @total: 13)
Suggs’ college production was similar to Freeney’s and would have placed him #2 in this year’s class.
#13 Chi: Haynes, PSU (bust): - a huge bust. Shows no sense of urgency and played behind a street free agent last year. Drafted under Blache in system prior to Lovie Smith, current management’s excuse is Haynes doesn’t fit Lovie’s scheme. Shows no pass rush ability. A back up at best. No injury history to speak of, just can’t play or doesn’t want to.
CPC: 121/34/19/5/7. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 6; @run: 5; @total: 11)
Haynes’ college production was on par with Kiwanuka, and would have placed him tied for #1 in this year’s class.
#15 Phi: McDougle, Mia (bust): the Iggles traded up 15 slots to take this Miami DE in the first rd. After only one year McDougle had already suffered a sprained ankle, a bum knee a sore hip and an irregular heartbeat. His most infamous play was leveling Eli Manning in Manning’s first action of the season in 2004. In July of 2005 McDougle was the victim of a robbery and was shot in the stomach, missing the entire 2005 season due to complications.
CPC: 116/32/14/6/4. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 10; @run: 4; @total: 14) McDougle’s production was on par with Manny Lawson and Mario Williams, and would have placed him tied for #2 in this year’s class.
#18 Ariz: C. Pace, WF (bust): Pace was considered a 3rd or 4th rdr entering the draft but in his first year presiding over the draft Arizona VP Rod Graves decided to make a splash, trading out of the 6th pick overall for the 17th and 18th, and drafted Pace #17 overall in what many considered the draft’s biggest reach. After two unproductive years, Pace astoundingly “cut himself while horsing around with a childhood friend†in 2005. The cut on his arm was so severe he had surgery, missed most of the 2005 season and was forced to apologize to his teammates. “These are the kind of accidents that can happen in the home,†remarked Denny Green (10/25/05).
CPC: 112/30/19/1/2 (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 12; @run: 9; @total: 21)
Pace’s production was on par with Flowers and Reynolds and would have placed him #9 in this year’s class.
2003 big school sleepers: none
2004 Draft
#18 NO: W. Smith, Ohio St (boom)
CPC: 108/33/16/8/3. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 8; @run: 5; @total: 13)
Smith’s college production was on par with Suggs and would have placed #2 in this year’s class.
#20 Min: Udeze, USC (bust): - (injury) injury prone and under whelming over his first two years, Udeze has likely lost his job to Erasmus James, who holds up better against the run. His stock prior to the 2004 draft dropped due to whispers about structural damage in his shoulder, but on draft day the Vikings were congratulated for “stealing†him at #20. However, that shoulder gave him problems all year and he had surgery in the offseason and missed the Viking’s offseason program. Hurt again on Sept 25, 2005, Udeze had microfracture surgery to repair cartilage in his left knee and missed the rest of the season, an injury some players never return from. “Oh gosh, here we go again,†remarked DC Ted Cotrell upon learning the news.
CPC: 100/42/24/4/11. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 3; @run: 7; @total: 10)
Udeze’s college production was below Pepper’s but better than Haynes, Courtney Brown and Kiwanuka. He would have stood alone at #1 in this year’s class.
2004 big school sleeper: none.
First off, let me admit I have a "draft problem" and I am currently seeking help...
I’m calling a “boom†a perennial pro-bowler, a “bust†a 1st rd player who was unproductive and/or out of the NFL, and a Big School Sleeper an impact non-1st rd DE from a BCS conference school. Also included is each player’s college production over his final two years, compared to players in this year’s draft class.
Note: *** means stats vary prior to 2000 due to inconsistent record-keeping at Official University Athletic Sites.
CPC means “College Production Comparison†with DE prospects in the 2006 class (see “Study of Draft Prospects with Stats†thread, if you can bear it
). The numbers include total tackles, tackles for loss, sacks, passes broken up and forced fumbles (TT/TFL/S/PBU/FF). I didn’t include non-BCS conference players like Osi Umenyiora because their lesser competition made their college stats incomparable.
Part I. The Prospects.
2000 Draft
#1 Browns: Courtney Brown, PSU (Bust): Brown sustained the following injuries in a 3 year span: a knee injury missing the first 6 games of 2001; a left ankle sprain, missing 6 more games; a neck injury, missing one game in 2002; a knee injury requiring microfracture surgery, missing the last 4 games of 2002 and the playoff loss to Pittsburgh; a ruptured bicep tendon, missing the last 3 games of 2003; A torn foot ligament in September 2004 that cost him the whole 2004 season.
CPC: 102/52/28/5/3 (2006 player ranking: @pass: 6; @run 5; @total: 11) If Brown were a member of the 2006 draft class, he would be tied with Kiwanuka at #1.
#12 Jets: Ellis, Tenn (Good)
CPC: 82/26/9.5/2/(4)*** (2006 player ranking: @pass: 17; @run: 7; total: 24). Ellis would have been tied with Victor Adeyanju at #10 in the 2006 class.
#26 Buff: Eric Flowers, Ariz St (Bust): Flowers was a combine workout warrior. His rookie year was his most productive: In 16 games he had 20 tackles and 2 sacks. A tweener, he was considered too small to play end but too slow to play OLBer. Couldn’t bull rush and had no speed rush ability. Buffalo didn’t protect him in the 2002 expansion draft and Houston took him. He played one year in Houston, registered 4 tackles, and was cut. He bounced to St. Louis, played sparingly for two years, and is out of the league. http://www.bfloblog.com/
CPC: 101/25/13/6/2; (2006 player ranking: @pass: 12; @run: 10; total: 22)
Flowers would have ranked #9 in this year’s class, below Parys Haralson and just above Rob Ninkovich, the Purdue DE.
big school sleeper.
#33 NO: Darren Howard, KSt
CPC: 104/35/16/12/8*** (2006 player ranking: @pass: 14; @run: 7; total: 21)
If Howard were a member of the 2006 draft class, his production would have been comparable with Parys Haralson, the Tennessee DE. What distinguishes Howard from all other college DE prospects was his activity in coverage. In 1999 alone at Kstate he broke up 9 passes from the DE position, Julius Peppers type numbers. As a comparison, Manny Lawson led all the 2006 class with 9 breakups over two years. Howard’s production was no fluke, and hinted at NFL caliber athleticism.
NOTE: John Abraham was drafted as a 3-4 OLB by Parcells, and played LBer as a senior in college, therefore, despite the fact he currently plays 4-3 DE, he is not included here.
2001 Draft
#4 Cin: J. Smith, Missou (good)
CPC: 167/37/19/2/4 (2006 player ranking: @pass: 10; @run: 4; total: 14)
Smith’s production ties him with Manny Lawson and Mario Williams at the #2 slot in this year’s class. Smith has been a solid contributing pro who has avoided the injury bug and registered 9 sacks in his rookie year.
#10 GB: J. Reynolds, FSU (bust): Florida State product blew out his knee in rookie training camp and never was the same again. Hardly played for three years with the Packers before being traded to the Colts in 2004. Another Florida player who struggled with the culture shock of a cold weather city. http://www2.jsonline.com/packer/news/jul04/242133.asp
CPC:115/26/19/3/4 (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 9; @run: 12; @total: 21) Reynolds’ college production was on par with Eric Flowers, and he would have ranked #9 among DEs in this year’s class.
big school sleeper:
#87 Den: R. Hayward, Iowa St
CPC: 151/23/10/5/4. (2006 player ranking: @pass: 14; @run: 7; @total: 21)
Hayward’s production was equivalent to 1st rounders Reynolds and Flowers. The difference is he was selected #87 overall, learned as a back-up for a few years, worked hard and finally emerged as an impact player.
2002 Draft
#2 Car: Peppers, NC (boom)
CPC: 127/43/25/11/4. (2006 player ranking: @pass: 3; @run: 4; @total: 7)
Pepper’s college production laps the field. If he were coming out this year he would easily have been the #1 DE according to the numbers. Sometimes they don’t lie!
#11 Ind: Freeney, Syr (boom)
CPC: 81/45/31/3/11 (2006 player ranking: @pass: 3; @run: 11; @ total: 14)
If Freeney were coming out in 2006, he would have been ranked #2 DE in production behind Kiwanuka, tied with Manny Lawson and Mario Williams. His college impact against the pass was astounding, against the run? Not so much. The same pattern continues in the pros.
#25 NO: Grant, Georgia (good)
CPC: 86/21/8/9/2. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 15; @run: 10; @total: 25)
Grant is not a game-changer, but a solid, run-stuffing DE with limited pass-rush ability; still, he is a contributing, motivated player. His college production was on par with Stanley McClover and Ray Edwards, and would have placed him at #13 in this year’s class.
big school sleeper
#104 Chi: A. Brown, FLA
CPC: 106/26/18/7/4. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 7; @run: 12; @total: 19)
Brown’s college production was on par with Elvis Dumerville, and would have placed him at #6 in this year’s class.
2003 Draft
#10 Bal: Suggs, Ariz St (boom)
CPC: 94/43/29/5/9. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 3; @run: 10; @total: 13)
Suggs’ college production was similar to Freeney’s and would have placed him #2 in this year’s class.
#13 Chi: Haynes, PSU (bust): - a huge bust. Shows no sense of urgency and played behind a street free agent last year. Drafted under Blache in system prior to Lovie Smith, current management’s excuse is Haynes doesn’t fit Lovie’s scheme. Shows no pass rush ability. A back up at best. No injury history to speak of, just can’t play or doesn’t want to.
CPC: 121/34/19/5/7. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 6; @run: 5; @total: 11)
Haynes’ college production was on par with Kiwanuka, and would have placed him tied for #1 in this year’s class.
#15 Phi: McDougle, Mia (bust): the Iggles traded up 15 slots to take this Miami DE in the first rd. After only one year McDougle had already suffered a sprained ankle, a bum knee a sore hip and an irregular heartbeat. His most infamous play was leveling Eli Manning in Manning’s first action of the season in 2004. In July of 2005 McDougle was the victim of a robbery and was shot in the stomach, missing the entire 2005 season due to complications.
CPC: 116/32/14/6/4. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 10; @run: 4; @total: 14) McDougle’s production was on par with Manny Lawson and Mario Williams, and would have placed him tied for #2 in this year’s class.
#18 Ariz: C. Pace, WF (bust): Pace was considered a 3rd or 4th rdr entering the draft but in his first year presiding over the draft Arizona VP Rod Graves decided to make a splash, trading out of the 6th pick overall for the 17th and 18th, and drafted Pace #17 overall in what many considered the draft’s biggest reach. After two unproductive years, Pace astoundingly “cut himself while horsing around with a childhood friend†in 2005. The cut on his arm was so severe he had surgery, missed most of the 2005 season and was forced to apologize to his teammates. “These are the kind of accidents that can happen in the home,†remarked Denny Green (10/25/05).
CPC: 112/30/19/1/2 (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 12; @run: 9; @total: 21)
Pace’s production was on par with Flowers and Reynolds and would have placed him #9 in this year’s class.
2003 big school sleepers: none
2004 Draft
#18 NO: W. Smith, Ohio St (boom)
CPC: 108/33/16/8/3. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 8; @run: 5; @total: 13)
Smith’s college production was on par with Suggs and would have placed #2 in this year’s class.
#20 Min: Udeze, USC (bust): - (injury) injury prone and under whelming over his first two years, Udeze has likely lost his job to Erasmus James, who holds up better against the run. His stock prior to the 2004 draft dropped due to whispers about structural damage in his shoulder, but on draft day the Vikings were congratulated for “stealing†him at #20. However, that shoulder gave him problems all year and he had surgery in the offseason and missed the Viking’s offseason program. Hurt again on Sept 25, 2005, Udeze had microfracture surgery to repair cartilage in his left knee and missed the rest of the season, an injury some players never return from. “Oh gosh, here we go again,†remarked DC Ted Cotrell upon learning the news.
CPC: 100/42/24/4/11. (2006 aggregate rankings: @pass: 3; @run: 7; @total: 10)
Udeze’s college production was below Pepper’s but better than Haynes, Courtney Brown and Kiwanuka. He would have stood alone at #1 in this year’s class.
2004 big school sleeper: none.
