An EXCELLENT link for those who try to use the Pats play in a weak AFCE

[MrTibbs]

The Myth of the Easy AFC East, the Definitive Guide | Patriots Dynasty


"Since Bill Belichick took over as coach of the New England Patriots, the team has gone on an incredible run. As it stands right now they don't have a losing record against any team in the NFL. In fact outside of the Panthers (3-3) and the Giants (3-3), they have a winning record against every other team"


Conference Win - Loss Win Percentage
AFC -- 195 - 67 -- .744
NFC -- 63 - 22 -- .741

Division W - L - T Win Percentage
AFC South -- 41 - 10 -- .804
NFC South -- 17 - 5 -- .773
AFC North -- 33 - 11 -- .750
NFC West -- 15 - 5 -- .750
AFC East -- 88 - 30 -- .746
NFC North -- 17 - 6 -- .739
NFC East -- 14 - 6 -- .700
AFC West -- 33 - 16 -- .673

 

[luuked]

Both things are true and not mutually exclusive:

• AFC East is not particularly strong because the other teams are consistently rebooting their teams/coaches/GMs
• Pats are strong enough to beat teams from other divisions at the same rate as AFCE teams

 

[XLIX]

This logic does not hold. Just because AFCE teams give NE a hard time doesn’t mean they are strong relative to other divisions.

 

[Vindicate]

We play AFCE teams twice a year. Harder to win when a team is that familiar with you, regardless of how their season looks.

Better method is to look at the AFCE's success against the league and removing their Patriots games. I think someone did this last year and it came out that AFCE isn't good, but isn't as terrible as their record would suggest, they just have a guaranteed loss, if not 2, each season - which is terribly difficult to overcome.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Shouldn't Brady's 30-10 (.750) postseason winning percentage make this argument a non-starter.

 

[tasmlab]

I get the gist overall, but this year half of the division is the Dolphins and the Luke Falk-led Jets. I may not plead a case too hard that this year's division isn't easier than many.

 

[venecol]

Yawwwn

 

[sb1]

The AFCE is weak this year. But not weaker than some of the AFC South competition that Fivehead has played in his Colts days. Like in 2004 where the Colts were the only team in the division that scored more points than they gave up.

 

[Keyser Söze]

AFC East has been a dumpster fire for the past 20 years. Some Patriots fans can’t accept that because they think it diminishes what Brady and Belichick have done.

 

[Deus Irae]

Shouldn't Brady's 30-10 (.750) postseason winning percentage make this argument a non-starter.

No, because the playoffs are a weighted field, and they confer significant advantages on the higher seeds.

 

[Nikolai]

I did an analysis a couple years ago analyzing each division's record outside the division if you removed the best record from within that division (i.e. to make sure the Pats' success doesn't "cloud" the AFCE numbers)

Between 2002-2017 (2017 is when I did the analysis), the best divisions (without the top team) winning percentages were as follows:

AFCE: -- .528 (New England excluded)
NFCE: -- .515 (Philadelphia excluded)
NFCS: -- .512 (Atlanta excluded)
AFCN: -- .503 (Pittsburgh excluded)
AFCW: -- .498 (Denver excluded)
NFCN: -- .490 (Green Bay excluded)
AFCS: -- .487 (Indianapolis excluded)
NFCW: -- .467 (Seattle excluded)

I recall doing another analysis showing that Pittsburgh and Indianapolis had the largest disparity of records between their own divisions and teams outside it; in other words, they feasted on their own divisions far more disproportionately than any other teams.


EDIT - Found it!

Team winning percentages against teams from outside the division:

New England: -- .769
Pittsburgh: -- .616 (not even close)
Indianapolis: -- .594
Denver: -- .581
Green Bay: -- .575
And so on...


Further, the Patriots only have 33.6% of their wins coming from inside the division.
Here's how that ranks against the top 5 teams since 2002:

Indianapolis: -- 40.6%
Green Bay: -- 38.7%
Pittsburgh: -- 35.9%
Denver: -- 35.9%
New England: -- 33.6%


EDIT 2 - Winning Percentages against teams outside the division (not including the top team in the division - again to remove "the Pats effect")

AFC East: -- .545
NFC East: -- .523
NFC South: -- .519
AFC North: -- .505
AFC West: -- .498
NFC North: -- .488
AFC South: -- .480
NFC West: -- .447

 

[Nikolai]

AFC East has been a dumpster fire for the past 20 years. Some Patriots fans can’t accept that because they think it diminishes what Brady and Belichick have done.

The numbers show otherwise.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Sorry OP. AFCE has been trash since Brady took over. You are lying to yourself if you ever thought there was a year at lease one team in the division was a threat to the Pats with a healthy Tom Brady. Oh yeah, and the Pats lost the division in 2008 due to a tiebreaker with Brady out all year. It’s been the least interesting division since 2002.

 

[Keyser Söze]

The numbers show otherwise.

Your numbers are misleading then. Do we really need to go over the number of QBs that Buffalo, Miami and the Jests have had since 2000? You can’t be objective while telling me the Pats haven’t been playing in a terrible division.

 

[Nikolai]

Your numbers are misleading then. Do we really need to go over the countless QBs that Buffalo, Miami and the Jests have had since 2000? You can’t be objective while telling me the Pats haven’t been playing in a terrible division.

You're using the "eye test".

I'll take numbers every single time.

Since 2002, the NFC West has been the biggest dumpster fire in the NFL. Again, the numbers back it up and I don't know who would argue otherwise, even with an "eye test".

 

[maust]

Shouldn't Brady's 30-10 (.750) postseason winning percentage make this argument a non-starter.

Absolutely since it should stop the whole ridiculous 'Pats success is predicated on their weak division' bs in it's tracks.

No, because the playoffs are a weighted field, and they confer significant advantages on the higher seeds.

Obviously the playoffs confer an advantage on the higher seeds but the Pats .625 win percentage in non home playoff games more than offsets the simplistically lame seeding argument.

 

[Patstastic]

The 2018 Patriots are a perfect example of a team playing down (Or up) to their competition. They lost to thrash teams like Detroit, the Jags, Miami, and Tennessee. Meanwhile, they defeated KC x2, Chargers, Rams, Bears, Texans, Colts, and Minnesota (This includes postseason). The bolded were all SB favorites going into (Or during) the tseason. Point being the Patriots actually looked better when they faced elite teams. It was a bizarre season in that sense.

Obviously that's only one year. And I won't pretend that the division has been great since 2001. But keep in mind the Pats won the division in 01, 03, 04, 05, 06, and 07. The Jets won the division in 02. And they made the postseason in the bolded years as a wild card entry (Dolphins also made the postseason in 01). I believe the Bills missed the postseason with a winning record in 04 too. 08 Brady was out for the season.

Between 2009-2018, the Pats won the division each year. Jets made the postseason in 09 & 10. They barely missed in 2015. The Dolphins & Bills both made the postseason in 2016 & 2017 respectively. Yeah the division definitely wasn't great. But in the end, the Patriots still beat elite teams every year.

The divisions need to be switched around some. Put Baltimore in the AFC East. Miami in the AFC South. Then move a team from the south somewhere.

 

[maust]

You are lying to yourself if you ever thought there was a year at lease [sic] one team in the division was a threat to the Pats with a healthy Tom Brady.

FWIW 2010 comes immediately to mind. The Pats split the season series with the Jete and lost to them at home in the playoffs.

Lost in the overarching argument is that all divisions suck against New England and the Pats are the reason the AFCE looks as bad as it does. The surest path to the playoffs is winning the division, teams are first and foremost built with that in mind. The Pats routinely and most often comfortably winning the AFCE has led to the owners of the other teams pushing the reset button in hopes of finding the magic formula. The division is not the reason the Pats are great but rather they are the reason the division sucks. It would happen to any division they were in.

 

[fnordcircle]

Biased report to make Brady look good by intentionally leaving out his abysmal preseason record.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

Both things are true and not mutually exclusive:

• AFC East is not particularly strong because the other teams are consistently rebooting their teams/coaches/GMs
• Pats are strong enough to beat teams from other divisions at the same rate as AFCE teams

Not really. The argument is the Pats play in the weakest or one of the weakest divisions. That’s a mutually exclusive argument. It’s either one of the weakest divisions or it’s not.