I've been following this from a Fantasy POV mostly. But just for $hits n giggles, let's say the suspension ends up being enforced. What sort of effect would it have on the Pats and division?
Week 1 @Arizona
Week 2 vs Miami
Week 3 vs Houston
Week 4 vs Buffalo
Now my best guesses if you were to poll all fans outside of NE...
With Brady:
4-0 15%
3-1 60%
2-2 20%
1-3 4%
0-4 1% (always gonna be haters)
With Garoppolo:
4-0 2%
3-1 10%
2-2 40%
1-3 38%
0-4 10%
What do you guys think? I'd guess the suspension could cause a 1 to 2 game swing. Which could affect who wins the division.
Of course it's possible Garoppolo does really well and the Pats are 4-0 or 3-1 after 4 games. But it's June, no sense in having blind faith now. Save that for Aug/Sept. Realistically there will be some drop off.
I'd say 2-2 most likely and still easily the favorite to win the division once Brady returns. Though 1-3 is probably more likely than 3-1, and if that happens, it could be a battle to the end with Buffalo or NY.
Interesting question. I believe that any suspension of Brady is grossly unfair and simply wrong for more reasons than I could state in a few sentences, so I'll focus on your question.
Your question makes me realize that, if Brady is going to be (unfairly and wrongly) suspended, we should just get it over with. A stretch of four games, three at home, at the beginning of the season is probably as good as he could hope for.
That said, I think we Pats fans have to take the blinders off about those games. The most important thing that Garoppolo has going for him is that BB and Josh have had two seasons to observe him and he is still on the Roster...that says a lot; otherwise, he's an unknown outside of a few passes in a game setting.
His first start will be on national TV against a seasoned QB and a well-coached team playing on its home turf with a chip on its shoulder after being embarrassed by the Panthers in last year's playoffs. While I'm looking forward to the head games that Belichick will play with Palmer in the week leading up to that game:
"Carson Palmer? What can I say? He's a seasoned Quarterback. We have nothing but the utmost respect for him. He's one of the best in the league. He'll be playing on his home field against a guy starting his first ever NFL game before a national audience. You've got to give Palmer a big advantage there and expect a great performance from him under those circumstances. We're going to have our work cut out for us if we're going to be able to stop him." [barf!]. He'll try to get inside his head make the story line all week be about the high expectations of Palmer and the low expectations of Garoppolo. But, unless Palmer throws up all over himself, I don't think it's realistic to expect the Pats to win that game...
Then three home games. Two against division rivals and one against a Houston team that was humiliated at home by KC in the WC round and will be looking to make a statement against the team that everybody wants to make a statement agains. Anything can happen in a Division game, even at home.
So, four tough games. Three at home. An unknown QB. It's a crap shoot.
Garoppolo could surprise us...on the upside or the downside...but he will have a lot of weapons.
We do know that the Defense is stout and that BB will have them well prepared and playing with their own chip on their shoulder.
Bottom Line: I could see them going 1--3 just as well as I could see them going 3--1 and would be delighted if Garoppolo handed a 2--2 record to a rested and angry Tom Brady.
