AFC Watch

[RelocatedPatFan]

Missed last week, so 2 weeks have transpired since the last AFC Watch. There are 3 front runners right now for the bye week and none of the teams come from the AFC North. While injuries may alter the plan, 5 of the top 6 teams feel like they have been sorted out. Still, what else do we want to do on Sundays. We could spend time with the wife & kids or friends or even do yard work, but casual fans don't post on forums.

AFC EAST
2 teams are effectively written off (Jets/Bills) and the same old Patriots are the established team that doesn't look like it's ready to walk off like John Wayne into the sunset with Grace Kelly. Miami is more Heat that Dolphins and that's probably in large part due it FLorida's most famous dolphin residing in Clearwater.
Front Runner: New England 5 Wins, 3 Loss
Trending = Up. While a cautious person wouldn't curse the team or declare them the AFCE division winner so early, I feel confident in saying its the Patriots division to lose.
Remaining Schedule: Bye, vs Buffalo, vs Indianapolis, @ New York Jets ,@ Miami ,vs Houston ,vs San Francisco ,@ Jacksonville ,vs Miami
Expected Record Probable 12 - 4, Pessimistic 10 - 6
Bye week comes at a good time as they seemed to be the walking wounded after the game overseas (both teams seemed to have a handful of players get hurt). Plus, they have seemingly strengthen their one area of supreme weakness by bringing making the biggest splash at the trade deadline with the trade for Aqib Talib, a talented, but troubled young man. In BB we trust and this locker room has ore than e
enough solid citizens to help Aqib rehabilitate his image. Plus he'll be playing for a winner. I expect the Patriots to continue improving of defense and the offense, well I expect it to improve as well (but their close to the ceiling).

Possible Wild Card: Miami 4 Wins, 3 Losses
Trending Quietly putting together a nice season. Still a year and a good draft away from establishing a consistent/good team. it will largely be dependent on Tannehill's second year. Will teams have enough film on him to exploit his weaknesses or will he continue to improve.
Remaining Schedule: @ New York, @ Indianapolis, vs Tennessee, @ Buffalo, vs Seattle, vs New England, @ San Francisco, vs Jacksonville, vs Buffalo, @ New England
Expected Record Probable 10 - 6, Pessimistic 9 - 7

King Moonracer is ready to recruit the woeful Jets and Bills. The Jets suffer from having one of the worst Starting QBs in the league and I'm sure Buffalo Fans expected quite a bit more from their team. While it's not too late to make a wild card run, I'm more likely lose 20 pounds before either team can claim a spot in post season.

AFC NORTH
I expect this to be a very competitive battle for the division winner and I expect Pittsburgh to take the top spto. I wasn't singing their praises 2 weeks ago, but the NFL sometimes stands for Not For Long. The Steelers and the Ravens still have 2 games to play against each other and you have to expect some big hits that may actually be so violent that the EMTs will be on standby.

Front Runner: Baltimore 5 Wins, 2 Losses
Trending = Slow Spiral down. They have a fairly weak point differential +13.
Remaining Schedule: @ Cleveland, vs Oakland, @ Pittsburgh, @ San Diego, vs Pittsburgh, @ Washington, vs Denver, vs New York, @ Cincinnati
Expected Record Probable 10 - 6, Pessimistic 10 - 6
Getting Suggs back will certainly help, but I think the loss of 2 top defenders and this team is an injury or two away from some bad times. They’ve been getting by opponents and that luck may start to turn against them. They’ll go as far as the offense can take them.

Pittsurgh 4 Wins, 3 Losses
Trending = Slow Steady up. Looking to get healthier and eventually take control of the division
Remaining Schedule: @ New York Giants, vs Kansas City, vs Baltimore, @ Cleveland, @ Baltimore, vs San Diego, @ Dallas, vs Cincinnati, vs Cleveland
Expected Record Probable 11 - 5, Pessimistic 10 - 6


AFC SOUTH
Not much to comment on this division. Crown the Texans as this has to be the worst division in the NFL. I may have to revise my total of 6 wins for the remaining 3 teams, but it wouldn't be by much. So for now, I'll stick to my guns.

Front Runner: Houston 6 Wins, 1 Loss
Trending = Only place to go is down.
Remaining Schedule: vs Buffalo, @ Chicago, vs Jacksonville, @ Detroit, @ Tennessee, @ New England, vs Indianapolis, vs Minnesota, @ Indianapolis
Expected Record Probable 14 - 2, Pessimistic 13 - 3
While they lost Cushing, JJ Watt seems to have stepped up his game (can he really do that)? While they appear to be slightly more mortal than they did 2 weeks ago, the Texans appear to be the class of the AFC. I'm going to "pencil" in that they have home field advantage for the playoffs. Also, they have games against Chicago, New England, and Minnesota. This will make them battle tested and losses to NFC opponents hurt less than AFC opponents


AFC WEST
San Diego is like watching a live version of Groundhog Day. Each season they find a new way to kill themselves until the clock strikes 6am on Draft day. Normally, I'd say Norv Turner would play the role of Bill Murray/Phil, but the main character doesn't get cut out of the story.

Front Runner: Denver 4 Wins, 3 Losses
Trending = Up. Peyton inherited a team that was 8-8 team with Tim, I can't start over Sanchez, Tebow to a possible first round bye. Just wait 7 more weeks to find out
Remaining Schedule: @ Cincinnati, @ Carolina, vs San Diego, @ Kansas City, vs Tampa Bay, @ Oakland, @ Baltimore, vs Cleveland, vs Kansas City
Expected Record Probable 12 - 4, Pessimistic 13 - 3
With the run that i expect the Broncos to go on, they could easily run the gambit for the remainder of the season and that will cement Peyton as the league MVP (or did we already assume this to be the case).


Wild Cards
Front Runner: Baltimore - Assuming they lose the division
SIZE="3"]Mid Runner: Miami[/SIZE] -- Time will tell, they have to face the cold season. May need to build up a couple extra wins
Can take a shot: San Diego Though the priest is on stand-by to administer last rights and allow Cincy to move it. I'm not buying into Indy at this time and they have 2 wins to hand to Houston during 2 of the last 3 weeks of the season.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I think Pittsburgh wins the AFC North outright at 10-6. Baltimore is poised for a major collapse, but I bet they make the playoffs by a hair. Hard to separate the rest of the crud. You assume NE, Den, Hou, Pitt, and Bal likely get into the playoffs, and who is your sixth seed? Miami, SD, Cincy, Oakland, Buffalo, Indy... one of those five teams will make it, and maybe two (if Baltimore really collapses.) That is one weak conference with a major pretender or two in the playoffs. Of course, with today's NFL, you should expect that to be the AFC Championship matchup.

 

[MrNathanDrake]

1. Texans
2. Patriots
3. Broncos
4. Ravens
5. Steelers
6. Chargers or Dolphins

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Baltimore's in trouble, but still it's too hard to rule them out of a bye right now. They have the tiebreaker over us so effectively a 2 game lead, and they will get Denver at home so they have a good shot to hold the tiebreak over them. This week against Cleveland is actually a good test, if they can win games like these they still have a solid shot at 11-5 or better, meaning we can only lose 1 more game rest of the season at most to finish ahead of them. Tough considering Houston and SF are still on our schedule with a couple divisional road games left which are always tough. If the Ravens lose a game like the one this week, then I'd see them 10-6 at best.

Denver and Houston are real concerns looking at their schedules. We'll obviously need to beat Houston just to have a shot at finishing ahead of them.

 

[Rob0729]

Missed last week, so 2 weeks have transpired since the last AFC Watch. There are 3 front runners right now for the bye week and none of the teams come from the AFC North. While injuries may alter the plan, 5 of the top 6 teams feel like they have been sorted out. Still, what else do we want to do on Sundays. We could spend time with the wife & kids or friends or even do yard work, but casual fans don't post on forums.

AFC EAST
2 teams are effectively written off (Jets/Bills) and the same old Patriots are the established team that doesn't look like it's ready to walk off like John Wayne into the sunset with Grace Kelly. Miami is more Heat that Dolphins and that's probably in large part due it FLorida's most famous dolphin residing in Clearwater.
Front Runner: New England 5 Wins, 3 Loss
Trending = Up. While a cautious person wouldn't curse the team or declare them the AFCE division winner so early, I feel confident in saying its the Patriots division to lose.
Remaining Schedule: Bye, vs Buffalo, vs Indianapolis, @ New York Jets ,@ Miami ,vs Houston ,vs San Francisco ,@ Jacksonville ,vs Miami
Expected Record Probable 12 - 4, Pessimistic 10 - 6
Bye week comes at a good time as they seemed to be the walking wounded after the game overseas (both teams seemed to have a handful of players get hurt). Plus, they have seemingly strengthen their one area of supreme weakness by bringing making the biggest splash at the trade deadline with the trade for Aqib Talib, a talented, but troubled young man. In BB we trust and this locker room has ore than e
enough solid citizens to help Aqib rehabilitate his image. Plus he'll be playing for a winner. I expect the Patriots to continue improving of defense and the offense, well I expect it to improve as well (but their close to the ceiling).

Possible Wild Card: Miami 4 Wins, 3 Losses
Trending Quietly putting together a nice season. Still a year and a good draft away from establishing a consistent/good team. it will largely be dependent on Tannehill's second year. Will teams have enough film on him to exploit his weaknesses or will he continue to improve.
Remaining Schedule: @ New York, @ Indianapolis, vs Tennessee, @ Buffalo, vs Seattle, vs New England, @ San Francisco, vs Jacksonville, vs Buffalo, @ New England
Expected Record Probable 10 - 6, Pessimistic 9 - 7

King Moonracer is ready to recruit the woeful Jets and Bills. The Jets suffer from having one of the worst Starting QBs in the league and I'm sure Buffalo Fans expected quite a bit more from their team. While it's not too late to make a wild card run, I'm more likely lose 20 pounds before either team can claim a spot in post season.

AFC NORTH
I expect this to be a very competitive battle for the division winner and I expect Pittsburgh to take the top spto. I wasn't singing their praises 2 weeks ago, but the NFL sometimes stands for Not For Long. The Steelers and the Ravens still have 2 games to play against each other and you have to expect some big hits that may actually be so violent that the EMTs will be on standby.

Front Runner: Baltimore 5 Wins, 2 Losses
Trending = Slow Spiral down. They have a fairly weak point differential +13.
Remaining Schedule: @ Cleveland, vs Oakland, @ Pittsburgh, @ San Diego, vs Pittsburgh, @ Washington, vs Denver, vs New York, @ Cincinnati
Expected Record Probable 10 - 6, Pessimistic 10 - 6
Getting Suggs back will certainly help, but I think the loss of 2 top defenders and this team is an injury or two away from some bad times. They’ve been getting by opponents and that luck may start to turn against them. They’ll go as far as the offense can take them.

Pittsurgh 4 Wins, 3 Losses
Trending = Slow Steady up. Looking to get healthier and eventually take control of the division
Remaining Schedule: @ New York Giants, vs Kansas City, vs Baltimore, @ Cleveland, @ Baltimore, vs San Diego, @ Dallas, vs Cincinnati, vs Cleveland
Expected Record Probable 11 - 5, Pessimistic 10 - 6


AFC SOUTH
Not much to comment on this division. Crown the Texans as this has to be the worst division in the NFL. I may have to revise my total of 6 wins for the remaining 3 teams, but it wouldn't be by much. So for now, I'll stick to my guns.

Front Runner: Houston 6 Wins, 1 Loss
Trending = Only place to go is down.
Remaining Schedule: vs Buffalo, @ Chicago, vs Jacksonville, @ Detroit, @ Tennessee, @ New England, vs Indianapolis, vs Minnesota, @ Indianapolis
Expected Record Probable 14 - 2, Pessimistic 13 - 3
While they lost Cushing, JJ Watt seems to have stepped up his game (can he really do that)? While they appear to be slightly more mortal than they did 2 weeks ago, the Texans appear to be the class of the AFC. I'm going to "pencil" in that they have home field advantage for the playoffs. Also, they have games against Chicago, New England, and Minnesota. This will make them battle tested and losses to NFC opponents hurt less than AFC opponents


AFC WEST
San Diego is like watching a live version of Groundhog Day. Each season they find a new way to kill themselves until the clock strikes 6am on Draft day. Normally, I'd say Norv Turner would play the role of Bill Murray/Phil, but the main character doesn't get cut out of the story.

Front Runner: Denver 4 Wins, 3 Losses
Trending = Up. Peyton inherited a team that was 8-8 team with Tim, I can't start over Sanchez, Tebow to a possible first round bye. Just wait 7 more weeks to find out
Remaining Schedule: @ Cincinnati, @ Carolina, vs San Diego, @ Kansas City, vs Tampa Bay, @ Oakland, @ Baltimore, vs Cleveland, vs Kansas City
Expected Record Probable 12 - 4, Pessimistic 13 - 3
With the run that i expect the Broncos to go on, they could easily run the gambit for the remainder of the season and that will cement Peyton as the league MVP (or did we already assume this to be the case).


Wild Cards
Front Runner: Baltimore - Assuming they lose the division
SIZE="3"]Mid Runner: Miami[/SIZE] -- Time will tell, they have to face the cold season. May need to build up a couple extra wins
Can take a shot: San Diego Though the priest is on stand-by to administer last rights and allow Cincy to move it. I'm not buying into Indy at this time and they have 2 wins to hand to Houston during 2 of the last 3 weeks of the season.

So if everything goes well for the Broncos, they will win 12 games. If things go to hell in a handbasket, they will win 13 games. I wish I had their luck.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

Denver at 12-4 is ridiculous IMO,The schedule looks weak but I simply don't think they are even near a 12 win team,10-6 would be a great season for Peyton and Co.,they will probably win the division because San Diego is simply not consistent,but watch out for those Raiders who slowly and quietly are playing well and better each week.

Pittsburgh is going to lose the division to a beat up but still very talented Ravens team,when it comes down to it the Ravens simply have the better overall roster...Baltimore looks like a 11-5 team,I don't know if Pittsburgh can even get 10 wins.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

1. Texans
2. Patriots
3. Broncos
4. Ravens
5. Steelers
6. Chargers or Dolphins

I could see your seeds happening but I go with .....

1- Houston 14-2
2- Baltimore 11-5 (wins tiebreaker with win over NE)
3- New England 11-5
4- Denver 10-6
5- Pittsburgh 10-6
6- Cincinnati/San Diego/Oakland 9-7

Maybe the 4th seed would be better,the Pats faced Pitt in the playoffs both times they won and went to the SB

 

[ivanvamp]

Baltimore's in trouble, but still it's too hard to rule them out of a bye right now. They have the tiebreaker over us so effectively a 2 game lead, and they will get Denver at home so they have a good shot to hold the tiebreak over them. This week against Cleveland is actually a good test, if they can win games like these they still have a solid shot at 11-5 or better, meaning we can only lose 1 more game rest of the season at most to finish ahead of them. Tough considering Houston and SF are still on our schedule with a couple divisional road games left which are always tough. If the Ravens lose a game like the one this week, then I'd see them 10-6 at best.

Denver and Houston are real concerns looking at their schedules. We'll obviously need to beat Houston just to have a shot at finishing ahead of them.

The good news is that the Pats already have a head-to-head win over Denver, and they get to play Houston at home. I could see the Pats finishing 12-4, with H2H victories over both Denver and Houston. If that happens, they'd need to somehow secure two more games over Houston to get the top spot.

As the OP noted, here's Houston's remaining schedule: vs Buffalo, @ Chicago, vs Jacksonville, @ Detroit, @ Tennessee, @ New England, vs Indianapolis, vs Minnesota, @ Indianapolis

I could see them possibly losing at Detroit and at Chicago, neither of which will be very easy games for any team. If they lose at NE, that would put them at 12-4, which, if the Pats go 7-1 in the 2nd half, would make the two teams tied. Factor in a Pats win over Houston, and there's a fairly realistic chance of NE getting the #1 seed.

Granted, there are a lot of ifs in there, but it's distinctly possible.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

So if everything goes well for the Broncos, they will win 12 games. If things go to hell in a handbasket, they will win 13 games. I wish I had their luck.

Bad cut and paste job on my part and you could have just quoted the offending part . Pessimistic would be 10-6 (and for some reason I can't edit my own post?)