AFC Championship Game : Patriots vs. Colts -- Pre-Game Thread

[fightingirish595]

All I'm going to say is that the colts would be a 5 win team without luck. The dude is that good.

Edit, this is like elway with the Broncos. The colts have no business being in this game. God bless them if they win this game and the Super Bowl. There here because of One guy

 

[fnordcircle]

When did we start deleting comments and altering threads on this message board without notification? Is this something that typically happens and my eyes have just been opened?

I dunno, I've been banned from threads and stuff and never told why. I complained about it once to Ian, never heard back and now I just stopped caring and figure I'll get bant one of these days and I'm at peace with that.

 

[goheels22002]

The Colts have better cover corners than the Ravens. If they play press man on the Pats, Brady won't have those quick outlets. That's where the run game could be huge. If we're gashing them on the ground, they're going to need those corners off just a little bit more.

The Colts are the opposite of the Ravens. The Colts have a couple of good defensive backs (and old friends named Darius Butler and Sergio Brown in their nickel and dime packages). The Ravens have no one who can cover Gronkowski (who does?). Their defensive line and linebackers are nothing special, although I wish Chandler Jones' older brother, Arthur, had come to the Pats in the offseason.

What the Colts don't have is a front seven that comes close to the Broncos, Lions, Bills, Dolphins, Jets, etc, etc. The attack will be completely different next week. Lots of running plays, lots of Vereen, lots of play action and intentionally controlling the tempo and the clock. The Patriots will use no-huddle less against these guys, and crank it up when they need a change of pace or a spark to get the offense going. Jonas Gray will be active.

The Patriots racked up 503 yards of offense against the Colts defense in Week 11 using all of the receivers and putting up over 200 yards on the ground. The Pats also had the ball for over 9 more minutes than the Colts, keeping Luck and his talented receiving corps off the field.

http://www.patriots.com/schedule-and-stats/game/2014/regular11

 

[Ring 6]

All I'm going to say is that the colts would be a 5 win team without luck. The dude is that good.

Edit, this is like elway with the Broncos. The colts have no business being in this game. God bless them if they win this game and the Super Bowl. There here because of One guy

Your comments make me very curious.

1) When you say the Colts would be 5-11 without Luck, what does that mean? They'd be 5-11 with Brady or with Matt Hasselbeck? I think most good teams would be 5-11 with Matt Hasselbeck.
2) If they don't deserve to be one of the last 2 teams standing in the AFC who does?

 

[hambone1818]

NO!!!!
This is a dangerous team. If Luck doesn't give the ball away, they are a top offense.
Defensively, anyone who thinks we are just going to walk out on the field and run right down their throats for 200 yards, doesn't realize that Chuck Pagano is one hell of a defensive coach.
We need to throw the ball well, and we need to be good in the red zone on defense.
A comfortable win could happen, but it is far from guaranteed.
This is a good football team that has beaten good football teams.

To be fair, the games where Luck doesn't give it away are few and far between--he has more multi-INT games (seven) than games where he didn't throw a pick (six) and he's also fumbled the ball 13 times, losing six.

Re: the defense, it doesn't matter how good your coach is if you don't have the personnel. The Colts stacked the box last night and basically dared Manning to beat them outside the hashes. Manning couldn't, Brady can.

The only worry I have about this game is the simple 'any given Sunday' idea; a few inopportune turnovers, a big special teams gaff, a long bomb from Luck...if the Pats play sloppy and give up a few big plays they could lose this game. If they play disciplined, precise football--as they have for almost all of the season since week 4--they'll win this going away.

 

[Ring 6]

To be fair, the games where Luck doesn't give it away are few and far between--he has more multi-INT games (seven) than games where he didn't throw a pick (six) and he's also fumbled the ball 13 times, losing six.

Sure, but if he has a turnover free game, they will be a tough out.

Re: the defense, it doesn't matter how good your coach is if you don't have the personnel. The Colts stacked the box last night and basically dared Manning to beat them outside the hashes. Manning couldn't, Brady can.

But coaching matters. Pagano CAN stop us from running wild if we are dumb enough to think it will be easy. We won't of course, but if we try to run 65% of the time, we will struggle.

The only worry I have about this game is the simple 'any given Sunday' idea; a few inopportune turnovers, a big special teams gaff, a long bomb from Luck...if the Pats play sloppy and give up a few big plays they could lose this game. If they play disciplined, precise football--as they have for almost all of the season since week 4--they'll win this going away.

I think you are underestimating a good team.
The same could have been said of them going into Denver.

 

[hambone1818]

I think you are underestimating a good team.
The same could have been said of them going into Denver.

Agree to disagree. I'd never say it's a layup but the Colts haven't shown anything we haven't already seen. And the Pats have already smoked this team numerous times, home and road.

The Broncos played terrible, terrible football...Talib on Hilton was inexcusable. Manning couldn't get the ball downfield to save his life and his short passes looked like they were thrown by a five year old. Anderson showed, once again, that this Colts team can be run on, even when they're stacking the box. The Pats have a better QB (who isn't hurt) and better coaches. Last night was more about the failures of the Broncos than the successes of the Colts, to me at least.

 

[Ring 6]

Agree to disagree. I'd never say it's a layup but the Colts haven't shown anything we haven't already seen. And the Pats have already smoked this team numerous times, home and road.

The Broncos played terrible, terrible football...Talib on Hilton was inexcusable. Manning couldn't get the ball downfield to save his life and his short passes looked like they were thrown by a five year old. Anderson showed, once again, that this Colts team can be run on, even when they're stacking the box. The Pats have a better QB (who isn't hurt) and better coaches. Last night was more about the failures of the Broncos than the successes of the Colts, to me at least.

Thats fine. They won their way here. They looked better on the road than we did at home.
Hopefully the team and coaching staff do not agree that we are facing a poor team that has no chance.

 

[fightingirish595]

Your comments make me very curious.

1) When you say the Colts would be 5-11 without Luck, what does that mean? They'd be 5-11 with Brady or with Matt Hasselbeck? I think most good teams would be 5-11 with Matt Hasselbeck.
2) If they don't deserve to be one of the last 2 teams standing in the AFC who does?

First, I just want to say I'm not saying this is an automatic win. However, I am very confident we will win this game. The colts deserve to be in this game, They won their games fair and square. Roster wise though? to me they have no business being in this game in that respect. As for most teams being 5-11 with Hasselbeck, I disagree with that

 

[hambone1818]

Thats fine. They won their way here. They looked better on the road than we did at home.
Hopefully the team and coaching staff do not agree that we are facing a poor team that has no chance.

First, I never said the Colts are a poor team. They're in fact a very good team, if flawed in ways the Patriots can and should expose them with. Of course they earned their way here, Luck is an amazing QB and their defense has played very well...that doesn't mean I have to think they're as good as the Pats.

And sorry but I hate the 'you need to respect every opponent' idea. First, I DO respect the Colts, I just happen to think the Pats match up great against them. And second I'm not in that locker room or coaches room. This Patriots team will never take an opponent lightly, not with Belichick at the helm. The opinions on this message board mean absolutely NOTHING wrt the team's preparation for the game.

 

[Ring 6]

First, I just want to say I'm not saying this is an automatic win. However, I am very confident we will win this game. The colts deserve to be in this game, They won their games fair and square. Roster wise though? to me they have no business being in this game in that respect. As for most teams being 5-11 with Hasselbeck, I disagree with that

But you didn't answer the questions.
You think they would be 5-11 with who at QB?
Who do you think deserves to be in the Final Two in the AFC?

 

[Ring 6]

First, I never said the Colts are a poor team. They're in fact a very good team, if flawed in ways the Patriots can and should expose them with. Of course they earned their way here, Luck is an amazing QB and their defense has played very well...that doesn't mean I have to think they're as good as the Pats.

And sorry but I hate the 'you need to respect every opponent' idea. First, I DO respect the Colts, I just happen to think the Pats match up great against them. And second I'm not in that locker room or coaches room. This Patriots team will never take an opponent lightly, not with Belichick at the helm. The opinions on this message board mean absolutely NOTHING wrt the team's preparation for the game.

Didn't say your opinion would affect the game. Just saying that you are disrespecting a team that earned its way here.

 

[hambone1818]

Didn't say your opinion would affect the game. Just saying that you are disrespecting a team that earned its way here.

I think you're either misreading what my point is, or trying to manufacture disrespect where there isn't any. Of course they earned their way here. But the entire point of this thread is to dissect the matchup and talk about strengths and weaknesses and predictions. The Pats happened to match up poorly against the Ravens, with their strong front 7 and good run game. The game this week proved those concerns to be valid, with Forsett gashing them early and Brady getting hit repeatedly in the first half. This week, my opinion is the Pats match up very well against the Colts, whose strengths (dominant QB who's prone to mistakes; very good secondary) and weaknesses (front 7 not too stout, not a great run game) align very well with the Patriots.

This isn't disrespect. This is analysis. Well, amateur analysis at least

 

[SalemPats]

This is a good matchup for us. The Colts do not have a physical O-Line and I don't think they will be able to run the ball. Luck is amazing, but still a bit of a gunslinger and you can confuse him into picks. He is mobile and very strong, I wouldn't be surpised to see use a bit of a spy on him, although i don't think it will be Collins/Hightower or McCourty. Luck uses his TEs well and has a great deep ball. I assume we will want McCourty to provide over the top help especially for Browner. Should be a fun game, but i expect us to pull away early in the 2nd half

 

[goheels22002]

Your comments make me very curious.

1) When you say the Colts would be 5-11 without Luck, what does that mean? They'd be 5-11 with Brady or with Matt Hasselbeck? I think most good teams would be 5-11 with Matt Hasselbeck.
2) If they don't deserve to be one of the last 2 teams standing in the AFC who does?

The Colts are basically in need of improvement in the trenches. They either have inexperienced players or very average veterans on both lines. Their skill players on offense are terrific, especially with the addition of Herron who looked excellent against a good Broncos front seven. Hakeem Nicks has stepped up for them at receiver.

Without Luck, the Colts are a .500 or so team with Hasselback or any of the QBs in the AFC East other than Brady, any of the NFC East QBs, etc. Luck is special. Give him the Cowboys' offensive line and his skill players, and they'd be frightening.

2) If not the Colts, who? Great question. The Broncos are so Manning-centric, they wouldn't be the #2 team in the AFC right now and even with a healthy Manning they were a paper tiger. The Ravens looked pretty complete on Saturday. I'd rank the AFC: Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Broncos, Bengals, Steelers, Dolphins, Chargers.

The Buffalo Bills of 2015 with Rex could be a beast. Put a good quarterback in there with their running backs, receivers and that defense and it will be a dog fight.

 

[fightingirish595]

But you didn't answer the questions.
You think they would be 5-11 with who at QB?
Who do you think deserves to be in the Final Two in the AFC?

I think they would be a bad football team without Andrew luck. So if hasselbeck was the QB. They would be a 4 or 5 win team. I think the Colts and Patriots deserve to be in the final 2 because they won there games and are undefeated in the post season

 

[VrabelJr]

Anyone looking past Indy and trying to chalk this up as an instant win is an idiot. Their defense is playing as a cohesive unit that just went on the ROAD and beat Denver. Regardless of what you think of Manning at this point in his career, holding the Broncos to 13 points at home is a feat.

I don't think Indy's front 7 is good on paper but as a whole they played together really well yesterday. They were crafty at figuring out how to get into the backfield pretty consistently.

 

[dales804]

I wonder how NE will change their defensive game plan, if at all, from the last meeting. Wayne doesn't seem as involved in the offense as he was then. So do you still use Revis on him to completely eliminate one option? Or do you put him on Hilton or Moncrief now? Allen went out early in the last meeting and, assuming that doesn't happen again, how will they account for the two TE's?

And with Stork most likely out, what's everyone's preferred o-line? Solder, Connolly, Wendell, Kline, Vollmer? Or just wing it with a random ineligible receiver every play and keep Kline off the field?

 

[NYCPatsFan]

....

The Patriots racked up 503 yards of offense against the Colts defense in Week 11 using all of the receivers and putting up over 200 yards on the ground. The Pats also had the ball for over 9 more minutes than the Colts, keeping Luck and his talented receiving corps off the field.

http://www.patriots.com/schedule-and-stats/game/2014/regular11

Quick question based on the above:

Ken pointed out in his analysis that the Colts now have Arthur (Chandler's brother), who didn't play the last time against us. Ken pointed out that he is a big body that the Colts D needed a lot, and alluded elsewhere that the Colts D has improved significantly over the last five games.

Thoughts?

thanks!

 

[Tunescribe]

Anyone looking past Indy and trying to chalk this up as an instant win is an idiot.

Yup. It would not surprise me at all to see this game become a 60-minute struggle just like vs. Baltimore. The Pats offense NEEDS a running attack in this game.