Advanced look: How Brady bested Flacco

[Patradomous]

Another way to look at it is in term of win probability:

Before Flacco's interception, Patriots had a 52% win probability with Batimore driving.
After Flaccos, interception, Patriots shot up to 83%
After Tom's interception, Patriots were 61%.

Thanks for making my point.It was the defense that opptimised that situation to 83%.Brady worsened the situation.He did NOT improve it.
What would it be if they ground down the clock for 3 and half minutes and kick a field goal to make 26-20 with Balt next possesion on their own 20?

 

[rojo8401]

People think that Brady is being magnanimous when he says that he sucked but I take him at his word.

He also said that the defense is the reason that they won the game and I agree with him on that point as well.

 

[mgcolby]

Brady made some mistakes for sure. Missing Gronkowski, over extending Hernandez etc...

But Flacco simply did not see open receivers throughout the day. Had rice open in the flat several times and did not see him. Boldin and/or Evans had a step on the defender many times in crucual situations and Flacco again did not see them.

I didn't chart the plays when I rewatched the game, but I will go back and do so sometime this week.

I stated that Brady was not outplayed after the game. Brady had a poor game by his standards but completing 70% of your passes against a flood of defenders is not poor.

 

[PatriotSeven]

Thanks for making my point.It was the defense that opptimised that situation to 83%.Brady worsened the situation.He did NOT improve it.
What would it be if they ground down the clock for 3 and half minutes and kick a field goal to make 26-20 with Balt next possesion on their own 20?

Incorrect. It was the Ravens not the defense. Literally it was Joe Flaco that improved the Patriots situation. There is 0 correlation between defenses and their ability to recover interceptions. None. Only forced fumble recoveries.

The 49ers can't recover any more interceptions than the ST Louis Rams. It's almost entirely based on your schedule of opposing quarterbacks.

If the quarterback doesn't want to be picked off, he doesn't get picked off. See how Tim Tebow plays, Alex Smith, Aaron Rodgers. Simple as that. 99% of interceptions are mistakes by the quarterbacks, not great plays by the defense.

Brady may have worsened the situation, but still ended up better than before Flaco threw his interception. Flaco helped the Pats situation out, not Patriots defense.

61% after Brady's interception > 53% before Flaco's interception

Brady did exactly what he was supposed to do. That was the call and the pass he was supposed to make, regardless of double coverage.

Believe it or not, taking a shot into double coverage is hardly off limits, especially for someone like Brady in that situation. Quarterbacks make throws into double coverage all the time. Even triple coverage.

It was an interception, but what both what winning probability % show, what that article is saying, and what yards per point agrees with as well as myself, is that there was nothing wrong with the play. It didn't endanger the Patriots winning chances at all.

Either way they would end up in a better spot they were before Flaco threw his pick, worst case scenario, and at best if the play was successful they would have basically won the game. It's the correct call. He got picked off, and that was actually a good example, of a great play by the defender.

Wasn't exactly a freebie. They had to work to get that one.

 

[mgcolby]

Thanks for making my point.It was the defense that opptimised that situation to 83%.Brady worsened the situation.He did NOT improve it.
What would it be if they ground down the clock for 3 and half minutes and kick a field goal to make 26-20 with Balt next possesion on their own 20?

That was a dumb decision to throw the ball. He should have checked down when he saw the coverage. With that said it took a great play by two defenders to make the interception.

 

[seven]

What I got from this, Brady on his worst day is better than Flacco.
But I may be biased.

I still hate the choice to make that deep pass.

Following the spikes INT, like the rest of us
I expected to see run, short pass inside,
run, eat the clock, put them away.

Plus, I had had enough excitement for the afternoon.