weswelker#83
In the Starting Line-Up
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AccuScore.com has run more than 10,000 simulations for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios. Here's AccuScore.com's analysis of the AFC Championship game.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
The Chargers pulled off the big road upset against the Colts, but things do not look good for the Chargers in New England. Even if LaDainian Tomlinson, Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates were not hurt, the Patriots would be heavy favorites at home. The Patriots are winning nearly 90 percent of simulations, converting over 53 percent of third downs. Tom Brady completes 70 percent of his passes for 333 yards and over 3 TD passes per simulation.
Laurence Maroney is actually out-rushing LT on both a per carry and total rushing yards basis (Maroney 4.3 ypc vs. LT 4.1). For San Diego to pull off the huge upset, it needs Rivers to pass for at least 2 TDs and no interceptions. In simulation losses, Rivers averages 1 TD pass and 1.1 INTs, but in simulation wins he has a 3-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
The Chargers' defense needs to intercept Brady twice. While San Diego managed to do that vs. Peyton Manning, the chances of Brady throwing 2 picks is under 10 percent. Look for Randy Moss to bounce back from his one-reception performance vs. the Jaguars with a huge 95 yards and at least 1 TD.
Simulation Full Results :
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_y...-accuscore-nfl20080120017&prov=yhoo&type=lgns